Simsanityy179

Mitchell Robinson 2019-2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Where we drafting money Mitch ?

I'm thinking 3rd round

11.5ppg 10.5rpg 1.5apg 1.0spg 3.0bpg 70fg% 60ft% 1.5to

wouldnt be surprised if he averages 5.0stocks per game....

only concern for me is will he be unleashed for 30-35mpg on a nightly basics, unfortunately I’m sensing a Jarrett Allen minute situation and for that reason I’m out. 

Please fisdale play this man

 

Edited by Simsanityy179

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For me 3rd round is too early to draft for potential.  I prefer established veteran players in early rounds. 5th round  at the earliest

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14 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Where we drafting money Mitch ?

I'm thinking 3rd round

11.5ppg 10.5rpg 1.5apg 1.0spg 3.0bpg 70fg% 60ft% 1.5to

wouldnt be surprised if he averages 5.0stocks per game....

only concern for me is will he be unleashed for 30-35mpg on a nightly basics, unfortunately I’m sensing a Jarrett Allen minute situation and for that reason I’m out. 

Please fisdale play this man

 

 

I think he can do better than that...look at how he improved his ft during the season..if that goes up, the points go up...gonna be an awesome Mitch year

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He was top 50 last year on only 20 MPG.  His stats per 20 are 7/6 with .8 steals and 2.4 bpg with efficiency numbers of 69%/60% and only .5 TO.  Even with no improvement he's a 4th rounder.  His per 36 numbers are around 13/11 with 1.4 steals and 4.3 blocks.  But you can't merely extrapolate based on his per 36 numbers because he's unlikely to see that many minutes and players tend to be less impactful per minute the more tired they are.  If you split it down the middle then he's looking at 10/9 with a steal and 3.5 blocks and almost 70 FG%/60 FT% while having less than 1 TO.  The closet comp is probably Stifle who has similar efficiency on higher volume.  Stifle also projects to have more points and rebounds, although MitchRob has the potential to get even more stocks.  Given that Stifle is a consistent second round pick, I think ranking MitchRob in the third round is fair.  I'm more likely to pick him in the fourth though, and given that he's one of Gallagher's guys I wouldn't be surprised to see people reach in the late second round, which is too high for me.

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Too rich for my blood at the present time. He will be going in the 3rd round in most drafts and he may very well justify on a per game basis, but even still his value mainly comes from blocks. Still very useful, but for my early round guys I like to have a solid base in all cats; especially scoring as it becomes more scarce as the draft goes on, efficient scoring particularly. I play roto, so it may be different for you guys that play h2h, but taking a guy that's only getting you 10 points per game with your 2nd or 3rd pick, will obviously kill you in the points cat. 

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In a redraft maybe 5th round, I would go 4th in a keeper league like ours where you keep them one round earlier each year.

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16 hours ago, young_styler said:

Too rich for my blood at the present time. He will be going in the 3rd round in most drafts and he may very well justify on a per game basis, but even still his value mainly comes from blocks. Still very useful, but for my early round guys I like to have a solid base in all cats; especially scoring as it becomes more scarce as the draft goes on, efficient scoring particularly. I play roto, so it may be different for you guys that play h2h, but taking a guy that's only getting you 10 points per game with your 2nd or 3rd pick, will obviously kill you in the points cat. 

Generally, I agree that he's overvalued.  However, I also mostly play roto, and tend to ignore points.  Not punt per se but it's not something I actively target.  It's one of the least polarized categories.  The median is around 15 and few players average over 30 and almost no one worth rostering averages under 7.5.  Whereas, blocks is completely polarized.  3 blocks is 5X the median!  Draft MitchRob and you win blocks *hopefully*.  The cats I'm almost always looking for (and so is everyone else generally) are stocks and assists.  I'm rarely looking for points, threes, rebs around the trade deadline.  Efficiency is huge as well but I often see GMs get 13 combined points in the percentages, which is why I'm more willing to punt FT% in roto than most.  Getting a 1 in FT% is often compensated by a 12 in FG%.  Not always.  But it's difficult to really truly dominate efficiency, particularly because if it's 9 cat then high volume tends to correlate to high TO.  Point being, if I really could guarantee MitchRob goes like 10/9 with 4.5 stocks on 60/70 splits then I really would go for him.  The problem is that I'm not confident in that assessment and not worth the risk at his present rank.  Maybe after a couple years of solid top 50 value but by then the cat will be out of the bag so to speak.

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Wait...taj gibson is going to take minutes from 23Savage?  I don't think so.  Knicks are all in for more lottery, and the best way to do that is play young guys.  He is locked and loaded for 25-30 minutes a night and will be a top 20 producer in fantasy next year.

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8 minutes ago, GJDHouse said:

Wait...taj gibson is going to take minutes from 23Savage?  I don't think so.  Knicks are all in for more lottery, and the best way to do that is play young guys.  He is locked and loaded for 25-30 minutes a night and will be a top 20 producer in fantasy next year.

Well you could say losing Jordan and gaining Taj was a lateral move for his value, or slightly beneficial.  While a good way to tank is to play young guys, playing young guys too much before they’re ready is also a good way to ruin them.  I don’t see him hitting 30MPG.  Even if he does hit close to that if you extrapolate based on last years numbers then he’s in line for 10/9 with 1 steal and 3 blocks.  Second round value seems a stretch given that he was top 50 last year.  Maybe third round value. 

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Drafting a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round who’s not even guaranteed to play 30mpg is just dangerous.

Bobby Portis, Randle and Gibson makes things extremely ugly.

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I love Mitch BUT Fizdale is still the coach, the Knicks are still the Knicks, and I'm wondering if I could possibly snag Whiteside much later and get similar stats with probably more points and rebounds from Hassan (until Nurkic returns).  

 

I have him in dynasty and he's the one player I probably would not trade at all costs...hoping he wins me blocks on his own for the next 7 years.    

 

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I have a gut feeling, he will be drafted high but have tons of foul trouble start of season. Might be able to trade for him from frustrated owners. I think Julius Randle plays inside the paint a lot too so they need time to mesh.

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Definitely not a 3rd round pick, but I think he's going to finish in the top 60. High FG, and obviously high blocks. 

5th - 6th round and I'm not afraid of the bigs they signed, none of them are true centers like 23savage. It's gonna be Portis subbing for Randle and Taj subbing for Mitch but we all know Mitch has this starting job locked down.

My thing is that I don't know if I want to risk an early draft pick on an unproven player so I probably won't get him but if he's hanging around in the 7th - 8th round I'm drafting for sure.

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Taj steals minutes everywhere he goes, and this is the Fiz-Knicks. Love the kid, but no thanks.

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On 6/30/2019 at 12:26 PM, StifleTower2 said:

Generally, I agree that he's overvalued.  However, I also mostly play roto, and tend to ignore points.  Not punt per se but it's not something I actively target.  It's one of the least polarized categories.  The median is around 15 and few players average over 30 and almost no one worth rostering averages under 7.5.  Whereas, blocks is completely polarized.  3 blocks is 5X the median!  Draft MitchRob and you win blocks *hopefully*.  The cats I'm almost always looking for (and so is everyone else generally) are stocks and assists.  I'm rarely looking for points, threes, rebs around the trade deadline.  Efficiency is huge as well but I often see GMs get 13 combined points in the percentages, which is why I'm more willing to punt FT% in roto than most.  Getting a 1 in FT% is often compensated by a 12 in FG%.  Not always.  But it's difficult to really truly dominate efficiency, particularly because if it's 9 cat then high volume tends to correlate to high TO.  Point being, if I really could guarantee MitchRob goes like 10/9 with 4.5 stocks on 60/70 splits then I really would go for him.  The problem is that I'm not confident in that assessment and not worth the risk at his present rank.  Maybe after a couple years of solid top 50 value but by then the cat will be out of the bag so to speak.

 

If 3 blocks is 5X the median, then we're talking the equivalent of a player getting somewhere around

 

23 rebounds

12 assists

4 steals

50 points ???

 

Accurate assessment or not?  

 

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7 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

If 3 blocks is 5X the median, then we're talking the equivalent of a player getting somewhere around

 

23 rebounds

12 assists

4 steals

50 points ???

 

Accurate assessment or not?  

 

It’s more like getting 25 rebounds, 15 assists, 6 steals, 75 points.  The question is does he really get 3 blocks with that crowded front court.  He’s the only true center but they have about 5 PFs.  

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On 6/30/2019 at 1:55 AM, young_styler said:

Too rich for my blood at the present time. He will be going in the 3rd round in most drafts and he may very well justify on a per game basis, but even still his value mainly comes from blocks. Still very useful, but for my early round guys I like to have a solid base in all cats; especially scoring as it becomes more scarce as the draft goes on, efficient scoring particularly. I play roto, so it may be different for you guys that play h2h, but taking a guy that's only getting you 10 points per game with your 2nd or 3rd pick, will obviously kill you in the points cat. 

 This is pretty much my take as well. I like the kid a lot, but I'm not willing to draft him that early. Maybe around 6th round I would feel more confident but he will be gone way before that in all drafts, so very likely that I don't own him this year in snake draft leagues....now, auction drafts is another story.

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On 7/10/2019 at 2:21 AM, StifleTower2 said:

It’s more like getting 25 rebounds, 15 assists, 6 steals, 75 points.  The question is does he really get 3 blocks with that crowded front court.  He’s the only true center but they have about 5 PFs.  

 

Wow thats kind of trippy to think about it like that.  I'm thinking 25-30 min/game.  3 blocks is doable.  But I also like that he has sneaky upside in steals, hoping he can nudge up to 1.2-1.5 steals / game at some point. 

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Posted (edited)

"He has a legitimate chance at leading the league in blocked shots, which gives him first-round upside."

I think the award for the most hyped player by rotoworld this season goes to Mitch Robinson. His minutes are really hard to guess with Randle, Portis, Gibson and Morris around. Why did they draft all these bigs lol . Knicks things I guess.

Edited by Chrizz
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11 minutes ago, Chrizz said:

"He has a legitimate chance at leading the league in blocked shots, which gives him first-round upside."

I think the award for the most hyped player by rotoworld this season goes to Mitch Robinson. His minutes are really hard to guess with Randle, Portis, Gibson and Morris around. Why did they draft all these bigs lol . Knicks things I guess.

Not to mention if fouls were the 10th cat he would be a first rounder.  Given their depth and his propensity to foul out, he’s a super high risk player where people are drafting him.  I don’t think he has first round upside, but he has second round upside.  However, he also has outside the top 75 downside.  He’s a gamboolers gamble, shoving all in on a gut shot.  Sure he *could* hit. 

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If I can get Harden in the first I might risk it and pick Robinson at the end of the Second round. I would prefer Gobert though. But thats a great 1st/2nd combo imo. 

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4 hours ago, Chrizz said:

If I can get Harden in the first I might risk it and pick Robinson at the end of the Second round. I would prefer Gobert though. But thats a great 1st/2nd combo imo. 

Care to let him slip in the 3rd round? Where do you pick Harden, btw?

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4 hours ago, Chrizz said:

If I can get Harden in the first I might risk it and pick Robinson at the end of the Second round. I would prefer Gobert though. But thats a great 1st/2nd combo imo. 

I think getting Harden (or Curry) and combining him with any blocks machine who isn't a complete FT punt is a great way to start the draft (Gobert, Capela, MitchRob). But that's more of a functioning of Harden being OP at every thing other than blocks and his FT% is so great it can make up for a big who is lower volume.   

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32 minutes ago, MysticPeak said:

Care to let him slip in the 3rd round? Where do you pick Harden, btw?

Even with Westbrook around I think I would draft Harden with the no1 pick. Mitch and Gobert are basically the only guys with elite fg% plus blocks and their flaws stats wise are Hardens strengths,

25 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I think getting Harden (or Curry) and combining him with any blocks machine who isn't a complete FT punt is a great way to start the draft (Gobert, Capela, MitchRob). But that's more of a functioning of Harden being OP at every thing other than blocks and his FT% is so great it can make up for a big who is lower volume.   

You think Capela will increase his bpg again? He only averaged 1.0 bpg in the final 3 months of last season.

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