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Mitchell Robinson 2019-2020 Outlook

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Haven't heard the term "anchor" in a while.

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49 minutes ago, tongs said:

Haven't heard the term "anchor" in a while.

Because people fight about if it means to solidify that category for you (maybe Mitchell, blocks) or if it weighs that category down negatively (Drummond, FT).  I find that debate funny as hell, though.

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Anchor is anchor, but good example: two players have rank 46 and 47 (both average valu +0,07) at BBM.

First players 9 cat values: -0,34 -0,17 +0,68 +0,43 +0,12 +0,75 -0,68 -0,23 -0,13

Second player 9 cat values: -1,44 -1,43 +0.11 -1,32 -0,55 +3,27 +1,51 -1,09 +1,55

I don't draft player who have -1 and more in four categories. I like first player.

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6 minutes ago, apatas said:

First players 9 cat values: -0,34 -0,17 +0,68 +0,43 +0,12 +0,75 -0,68 -0,23 -0,13

Second player 9 cat values: -1,44 -1,43 +0.11 -1,32 -0,55 +3,27 +1,51 -1,09 +1,55

I don't draft player who have -1 and more in four categories. I like first player.

That's fine if that's your strategy, but it really doesn't have anything to do with the phrase "He can single-handedly win a category for you".  You don't like guys that do that, and that's okay.  Some people do, though.

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On the top of my DND list with all the hype  going on.   I think Mitch can block shots but overall he  does not have a very high bbal IQ. In other words, right now  he is not a very good player and that limits his ceiling as block specialist.

The way I see it, in order to play in NBA you need to be a good bball player. It means that you should be   capable of doing basic things.

  At the  minimum (regardless of position) you should be able to grab a rebound, make the right pass and score the basket. 

If you compare reb, ast and FGA with other Cs, I see lots of red flags for Mitch.  

He played 1359  minutes and had 423 reb, 37 ast and 485 pts.   And his FGA are dead last for top Cs  on BBM. Also his FGA on Knicks team are at the bottom of the list. 

Which tells me that other players are not passing to him because he cannot: 1-make a pass, and 2-score the basket.

It translates to 1 reb  for every 3.2 min played,  1ast for every 36.7 min played (yikes!) and 1 point for every 2.8 min played

McGee  with his bbal IQ, has 1reb/2.9 min, 1 ast/31.5 min and 1point/1.86 min.

If McGee or Tristan Thompson have better  per minute numbers that  tells me: stay away from Mitch this year and see if he improves (I think he will not)

 

 

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He doesn't get enough points to be picked anywhere before the 3rd. Punt points and he is well worth it. Don't punt points and you probably lose points or have to compensate too much. He needs to be used properly or will be a waste of a pick. 

Also, if he sits that's means you pretty much guarantee that you lose blocks since you're banking an entire category on one player or 2 players. I'd prefer to draft a bunch of 1 block guys who get more versatile stats. Blocks and luck are very related. 

Edited by johnval1362
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41 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

On the top of my DND list with all the hype  going on.   I think Mitch can block shots but overall he  does not have a very high bbal IQ. In other words, right now  he is not a very good player and that limits his ceiling as block specialist.

The way I see it, in order to play in NBA you need to be a good bball player. It means that you should be   capable of doing basic things.

  At the  minimum (regardless of position) you should be able to grab a rebound, make the right pass and score the basket. 

If you compare reb, ast and FGA with other Cs, I see lots of red flags for Mitch.  

He played 1359  minutes and had 423 reb, 37 ast and 485 pts.   And his FGA are dead last for top Cs  on BBM. Also his FGA on Knicks team are at the bottom of the list. 

Which tells me that other players are not passing to him because he cannot: 1-make a pass, and 2-score the basket.

It translates to 1 reb  for every 3.2 min played,  1ast for every 36.7 min played (yikes!) and 1 point for every 2.8 min played

McGee  with his bbal IQ, has 1reb/2.9 min, 1 ast/31.5 min and 1point/1.86 min.

If McGee or Tristan Thompson have better  per minute numbers that  tells me: stay away from Mitch this year and see if he improves (I think he will not)

 

 

 

So I am also staying away from him this year as well unless he somehow dropped far enough in my draft (don't think he will) to be worth the headache considering the roster and coach.  I would much rather have Turner and/or Brook Lopez.

But I have to defend him in the sense that he is only 21 years old and last year was his rookie season.  It is fair to say he won't make a leap comparable to the ridiculous amount of hype would suggest.  But to say he is incapable of doing basic things like score or make a pass and has a low bball IQ based on per minute statistics of his first 66 games is a stretch.

Would you have classified Rudy Gobert early in his career this way?  Look at Rudy Gobert's rookie stats.  Or even better, look at his year 2 stats when he played more.

Gobert per 36 year 1: 8.6 PPG, 6.1 FGA,  0.6 APG, 12.9 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 3.4 BPG

Gobert per 36 year 2: 11.4 PPG, 7.1 FGA, 1.8 APG, 12.9 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 3.2 BPG

Robinson per 36 year 1: 12.8 PPG, 7.7 FGA, 1.0 APG, 11.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 4.3 BPG

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1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

On the top of my DND list with all the hype  going on.   I think Mitch can block shots but overall he  does not have a very high bbal IQ. In other words, right now  he is not a very good player and that limits his ceiling as block specialist.

The way I see it, in order to play in NBA you need to be a good bball player. It means that you should be   capable of doing basic things.

  At the  minimum (regardless of position) you should be able to grab a rebound, make the right pass and score the basket. 

If you compare reb, ast and FGA with other Cs, I see lots of red flags for Mitch.  

He played 1359  minutes and had 423 reb, 37 ast and 485 pts.   And his FGA are dead last for top Cs  on BBM. Also his FGA on Knicks team are at the bottom of the list. 

Which tells me that other players are not passing to him because he cannot: 1-make a pass, and 2-score the basket.

It translates to 1 reb  for every 3.2 min played,  1ast for every 36.7 min played (yikes!) and 1 point for every 2.8 min played

McGee  with his bbal IQ, has 1reb/2.9 min, 1 ast/31.5 min and 1point/1.86 min.

If McGee or Tristan Thompson have better  per minute numbers that  tells me: stay away from Mitch this year and see if he improves (I think he will not)

 

 

This first paragraph often gets forgotten in fantasy. We get so caught up in stats and the forget that some of these players are not very good in real life. And thats why they never get big minutes or we complain about how bad a coach is for not playing them.

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1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

On the top of my DND list with all the hype  going on.   I think Mitch can block shots but overall he  does not have a very high bbal IQ. In other words, right now  he is not a very good player and that limits his ceiling as block specialist.

The way I see it, in order to play in NBA you need to be a good bball player. It means that you should be   capable of doing basic things.

  At the  minimum (regardless of position) you should be able to grab a rebound, make the right pass and score the basket. 

If you compare reb, ast and FGA with other Cs, I see lots of red flags for Mitch.  

He played 1359  minutes and had 423 reb, 37 ast and 485 pts.   And his FGA are dead last for top Cs  on BBM. Also his FGA on Knicks team are at the bottom of the list. 

Which tells me that other players are not passing to him because he cannot: 1-make a pass, and 2-score the basket.

It translates to 1 reb  for every 3.2 min played,  1ast for every 36.7 min played (yikes!) and 1 point for every 2.8 min played

McGee  with his bbal IQ, has 1reb/2.9 min, 1 ast/31.5 min and 1point/1.86 min.

If McGee or Tristan Thompson have better  per minute numbers that  tells me: stay away from Mitch this year and see if he improves (I think he will not)

 

 

 

Doesn't mean he can't turn into a solid player.  Deandre Jordan is an example.  Mitchell's elite athleticism, wingspan, and timing will allow him to become a monster if he puts in the work.  The biggest obstacle is Fizdale and his terrible coaching/rotations

 

Also, McGee is a 10 year vet and Robinson is still a rookie, give him time.  I believe he can be a Marcus Camby type player eventually

Edited by Fantasyscrub
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1 hour ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

Doesn't mean he can't turn into a solid player.  Deandre Jordan is an example.  Mitchell's elite athleticism, wingspan, and timing will allow him to become a monster if he puts in the work.  The biggest obstacle is Fizdale and his terrible coaching/rotations

 

I think that's part of the reason why I'm pumping the brakes on this judgment. If he used BBM's top players, he's comparing MitchRob's rookie season to mostly starting caliber bigs in the NBA with varying skillsets, experiences, and expectations. Robinson was a rookie.

Judging MitchRob's BB IQ on stats like passing ignores the fact that you also have to have a BB IQ to know what you're not good at doing, and not do that. Fact is, Mitch Rob's low turnovers for a rookie big actually show the opposite. If Robinson was passing way more and doing something that's not his strength, he'd high way higher TOs. If Javale McGee was a good passer or 3pt shooter, he'd be doing that. But he's not, because he knows that's not his role, and he's not that good at it.

Comparing FGA attempts and talking about his BB IQ is also a weird point.. again, scoring was never Mitch Rob's strength, so if you compare him to a veteran center like Towns or even a rookie scoring talent like Ayton, of course he won't do as well.

 

If you compare Mitch Rob's stats other rookie players in similar roles (a shotblocking center with limited offense), he's pretty much on par, especially if you level the playing field. Look at the per36 numbers for other comparable rookie bigs:

 

Mitch Robinson - 13 pts 11 reb 1.0 ast 1.4 stl 4.3 blk 0.9 TOs on 69% FG

Rudy Gobert -       9 pts 13 reb 0.6 ast 0.7 stl 3.4 blk 2.7 TOs on 49% FG 

A. Drummond -   12 pts  9  reb 2.9 ast 0.8 stl  1   blk 2.0 TOs on 53% FG 

Clint Capela -     13 pts 14 reb 0.8 ast 0.4 stl 3.6 blk  2.0 TOs on 48% FG

Derrick Favors -  13 pts 10 reb 0.9 ast 0.7 stl 1.6 blk 1.8 TOs 52% FG

Dwight Howard - 13 pts 11 reb 1.0 ast 1.0 stl 1.8 blk  2.2 TOs on 52% FG 

DeAndre Jordan - 11 pts 11 reb 0.5 ast 0.5 stl 2.8 blk 1.9 TOs on 63% FG

 

So you can see Mitch Rob compares very favorably on steals, blocks, TOs, and FG% to other rookie bigs. Obviously there are also key differences in minutes and roles, but for comparison's sake Mitch Rob played ~20 mpg, DeAndre 15mpg, Favors 20mpg, Drummond 21 mpg, Gobert 10 mpg, D12 32 mpg, Capela 8 mpg. 

Edited by s-kayos
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14 minutes ago, s-kayos said:

 

I think that's part of the reason why I'm pumping the brakes on this judgment. If he used BBM's top players, he's comparing MitchRob's rookie season to mostly starting caliber bigs in the NBA with varying skillsets, experiences, and expectations. Robinson was a rookie.

Judging MitchRob's BB IQ on stats like passing ignores the fact that you also have to have a BB IQ to know what you're not good at doing, and not do that. Fact is, Mitch Rob's low turnovers for a rookie big actually show the opposite. If Robinson was passing way more and doing something that's not his strength, he'd high way higher TOs. If Javale McGee was a good passer or 3pt shooter, he'd be doing that. But he's not, because he knows that's not his role, and he's not that good at it.

Comparing FGA attempts and talking about his BB IQ is also a weird point.. again, scoring was never Mitch Rob's strength, so if you compare him to a veteran center like Towns or even a rookie scoring talent like Ayton, of course he won't do as well.

 

If you compare Mitch Rob's stats other rookie players in similar roles (a shotblocking center with limited offense), he's pretty much on par, especially if you level the playing field. Look at the per36 numbers for other comparable rookie bigs:

 

Mitch Robinson - 13 pts 11 reb 1.0 ast 1.4 stl 4.3 blk 0.9 TOs on 69% FG

Rudy Gobert -       9 pts 13 reb 0.6 ast 0.7 stl 3.4 blk 2.7 TOs on 49% FG 

A. Drummond -   12 pts  9  reb 2.9 ast 0.8 stl  1   blk 2.0 TOs on 53% FG 

Clint Capela -     13 pts 14 reb 0.8 ast 0.4 stl 3.6 blk  2.0 TOs on 48% FG

Derrick Favors -  13 pts 10 reb 0.9 ast 0.7 stl 1.6 blk 1.8 TOs 52% FG

Dwight Howard - 13 pts 11 reb 1.0 ast 1.0 stl 1.8 blk  2.2 TOs on 52% FG 

DeAndre Jordan - 11 pts 11 reb 0.5 ast 0.5 stl 2.8 blk 1.9 TOs on 63% FG

 

So you can see Mitch Rob compares very favorably on steals, blocks, TOs, and FG% to other rookie bigs. Obviously there are also key differences in minutes and roles, but for comparison's sake Mitch Rob played ~20 mpg, DeAndre 15mpg, Favors 20mpg, Drummond 21 mpg, Gobert 10 mpg, D12 32 mpg, Capela 8 mpg. 

I think the question is what  do  you expect for Mitch next year and where do you draft him?  I am not saying he is not a useful player in general, but if you draft him in first 3-4 rounds he has potential to be a major disappointment relative to where he was drafted.    I don't think he is worth a pick in  first 4 rounds.   And the fact that Randle, Portis and Taj were signed this summer tells me that even Knicks do not  believe he can play starter minutes.

Per36 numbers are nice, but you need to be on the court to produce (he has 5.7 fouls/per36).  Right now I see a big that uses his athleticism to block shots and score,  and very little skill moves to give him even bigger advantage.  He looks very uncomfortable with the ball in his hands if he is more than 5 feet away from the basket.

Three years from now, he can be first rounder. Next season, I see minor uptick in minutes, reb and points. I fully expect his blocks to go down (around 2.1 per game), as opposing teams adjust to his presence.  Something like 23-24 min/ 11pts/9 reb/ 2.1 blocks.  His high FG%  has  minor impact on your team (low attempts).

With no 3s, ast and bad FT%   I am staying away next year. After that, it depends if he improves or not

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1 minute ago, Gile Pile said:

 

Per36 numbers are nice, but you need to be on the court to produce (he has 5.7 fouls/per36).  Right now I see a big that uses his athleticism to block shots and score,  and very little skill moves to give him even bigger advantage.  He looks very uncomfortable with the ball in his hands if he is more than 5 feet away from the basket.

Three years from now, he can be first rounder. Next season, I see minor uptick in minutes, reb and points. I fully expect his blocks to go down (around 2.1 per game), as opposing teams adjust to his presence.  Something like 23-24 min/ 11pts/9 reb/ 2.1 blocks.  His high FG%  has  minor impact on your team (low attempts).

With no 3s, ast and bad FT%   I am staying away next year. After that, it depends if he improves or not

 

The fouls don't sway me either. Also using rookie per36s Gobert was at 5 fouls per game, Favors was at 5.8 and 6 his first two years, Drummond was at 6.1, Capela was at 5.6, DeAndre was 4.5.

If you don't believe in him that's fine, but giving his numbers context in relation to other similarish players helps more than just throwing out his foul #s in a vacuum, because of course they'll look high then. Undisciplined shotblockers foul at lot, we already know this.

In regards to his offense, again, I say he looks uncomfortable farther away from the basket because he is uncomfortable, but that's okay because that's not his strength nor is that his role right now. Maybe in the future he will get better, but that doesn't make him a bad fantasy player right now.

 

Also just for reference, Rudy Gobert had those numbers in 2015/2016 - 9 pts 11 reb 2.2 blocks. He was 29th overall in a punt FT% build per BBM, so if he meets your projections then he would definitely be doing his job in fantasy. 

 

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Mitchell Robinson just needs minutes to do damage, end of story.  He proved that last year and he's not going to get worse his rookie season after an offseason of training with NBA coaches and staff.  Only obstacle in his way is Fizdale, who in my opinion is a bottom 3 coach in the league.  

I also find it strange that you feel a weakness is that he feels uncomfortable with the ball 5 feet out of the paint.  That is not his strength, nor is that Gobert/Drummond/Capela/Deandre/Adams/Whiteside/McGee's strengths.  Not everyone is a Jokic, Gasol, or Vucevic and that's fine.

 

Robinson was a top 25 player the last few months in the league when he came back and was a league winner if you got him off the wire.  I personally would avoid him simply because of the logjam and the fact he's on the Knicks but beyond that, he's going to be a top fantasy player for years to come simply because of his proven ability to get you 4+ blocks on any given night.  Sure he can turn into a Larry Sanders type of guy that fizzles out but we'll see.

 

 

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All I am saying that I will stay away from Mitch in 2019/2020 season, unless he is available  in 6th-7th round.

I know that I will be watching from sidelines how is return on investment for people who used early round picks on him.

He can be great in the future, but   I am curious where are people going to draft him next season?

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Anyone else looking to target Robert Williams III instead as a cheaper option? Opportunity is definitely there for him to produce

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On 9/6/2019 at 6:29 PM, Gile Pile said:

I am curious where are people going to draft him next season?

 

What % of your next year's picks are predetermined by the time the current season starts? Or are you just saying "you can't wait for October 2020?" Here's a prediction ... he will be drafted within a round or two of where he finishes this year - if his final ranking exceeds this year's ADP he gets overdrafted next year, and vice-versa.

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Because I live in Europe and have seen NBA matches only occasionally, then I just ask: how good basketball player is Mitch Robinson in real life, not fantasy? Will he overplay Bobby Portis and Taj Gibson? Because it also affects to his fantasy impact.

Edited by apatas

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On 9/12/2019 at 1:45 PM, rando said:

 

What % of your next year's picks are predetermined by the time the current season starts? Or are you just saying "you can't wait for October 2020?" Here's a prediction ... he will be drafted within a round or two of where he finishes this year - if his final ranking exceeds this year's ADP he gets overdrafted next year, and vice-versa.

I meant 2019/2020 if it wasn't clear

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6 hours ago, apatas said:

Because I live in Europe and have seen NBA matches only occasionally, then I just ask: how good basketball player is Mitch Robinson in real life, not fantasy? Will he overplay Bobby Portis and Taj Gibson? Because it also affects to his fantasy impact.

He’s better than Portis and Gibson by a long shot.  He’s more athletic than both of them combined.  Gibson is a barely a replacement level player. But is he objectively good irl?  Offensively he’s mostly a finisher/offensive rebounder as many bigs like him are.  He has the athleticism and ability to develop some sort of post game, however.  He’s actually a reasonable foul shooter which leads me to believe that he could develop a midrange game.  Defensively, he gambles too much for blocks.  But he’s the most athletic big I’ve seen in awhile so he gets blocks.  He doesn’t have the wingspan of someone like Gobert, nor is he as developed in skills.  But that can come with time.  Hard to come up with a comp bc I think he’s even more athletic than a prime Ibaka.  He’s a little lanky, not jacked like Whiteside, but I don’t think that hurts him.  The problem is that even historically I don’t really remember someone lanky like him getting the blocks he does.  Even someone like Ben Wallace was thick.  MitchRob is 7 feet, 240.  Historically seven footers have been plodding and most bigs with elite athleticism have been 6’10” type. Durant is athletic but not in the way MitchRob is.  I want to say Sam Bowie without the outside shot, simply in the way that you marvel how someone that big can be that athletic. It’s been 30 years imo since we’ve seen a 7 footer move like that.  Now that doesn’t mean jack s--- unless he develops that talent.  But is he talented?  No question. 

Edited by StifleTower2
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On 9/15/2019 at 2:37 AM, HarmStrong said:

"And this season's Myles Turner Sophomore Hype Award goes to..." 

 

Myles Turner was so bad in his 3rd season that he was a borderline drop in 10 team leagues.  Mitchell will be decent but I think he will be way overdrafted unless he averages 3.5 blocks per game lol

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Bobby Portis has been working his butt off and is claiming himself to have the best work ethic in the nba, and that no one trains like him in the off season. That hes up there with Kobe Bryant.That means that there's some upside for Portis because whatever potential he actually has, he is more likely than most to come closer to reaching it. So when fitzdale sees Portis working his a** off every day on and off the court trying to prove himself, and mitch Robinson makes bad play after bad play with mental lapses and lazy court etiquette (chasing blocks and fouling vs playing defense etc), I can very well see fitzdale benching Robinson out of punishment for the man at least claiming to be the hardest working off season player in the nba. He's maybe mostly talk but no one better to punish a lazy player chasing blocks than by putting in the guy working his a** off. It's a lesson in ethic. It's like when coaches purposely make time shares to have 2 or 3 players compete with each other to excel their games.  I think Bobby Portis could be used as a tool to motivate robinson while frustrating the hell out of him to improve his basketball IQ, and it will probably work. Plus Portis spaces the floor on a team that can't shoot 3s so who knows what happens. I can see Robinson getting 3 fouls in the first quarter then sitting him the rest of the game as punishment. If Robinson plays too much with bad habits, he might never break those habits so psychological punishment is the way to go in my opinion. Thats what I'd do at least. Oh you're gonna be lazy and play like Hassan whiteside Robinson? Hell maybe taj Gibson is there for when Robinson plays dumb, Portis plays selfish, and taj is the punishment for both. 

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I like him but wont be drafting since the Knicks fan in my league is to high on him and will be drafting him in the teens. I'm not interested in stealing Mitch Rob from  the Knicks fan at that p rice. Yuck.

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4 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

Bobby Portis has been working his butt off and is claiming himself to have the best work ethic in the nba, and that no one trains like him in the off season. That hes up there with Kobe Bryant.That means that there's some upside for Portis because whatever potential he actually has, he is more likely than most to come closer to reaching it. So when fitzdale sees Portis working his a** off every day on and off the court trying to prove himself, and mitch Robinson makes bad play after bad play with mental lapses and lazy court etiquette (chasing blocks and fouling vs playing defense etc), I can very well see fitzdale benching Robinson out of punishment for the man at least claiming to be the hardest working off season player in the nba. He's maybe mostly talk but no one better to punish a lazy player chasing blocks than by putting in the guy working his a** off. It's a lesson in ethic. It's like when coaches purposely make time shares to have 2 or 3 players compete with each other to excel their games.  I think Bobby Portis could be used as a tool to motivate robinson while frustrating the hell out of him to improve his basketball IQ, and it will probably work. Plus Portis spaces the floor on a team that can't shoot 3s so who knows what happens. I can see Robinson getting 3 fouls in the first quarter then sitting him the rest of the game as punishment. If Robinson plays too much with bad habits, he might never break those habits so psychological punishment is the way to go in my opinion. Thats what I'd do at least. Oh you're gonna be lazy and play like Hassan whiteside Robinson? Hell maybe taj Gibson is there for when Robinson plays dumb, Portis plays selfish, and taj is the punishment for both. 

Yep, Bobby will be excellent to motivate the kid, because if Mitch plays lazyball, he's yanked but if he outplays Portis he's punched in the mouth!🤣🤣🤣

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