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Mitchell Robinson 2019-2020 Outlook

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4 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

Bobby Portis has been working his butt off and is claiming himself to have the best work ethic in the nba, and that no one trains like him in the off season. That hes up there with Kobe Bryant.That means that there's some upside for Portis because whatever potential he actually has, he is more likely than most to come closer to reaching it. So when fitzdale sees Portis working his a** off every day on and off the court trying to prove himself, and mitch Robinson makes bad play after bad play with mental lapses and lazy court etiquette (chasing blocks and fouling vs playing defense etc), I can very well see fitzdale benching Robinson out of punishment for the man at least claiming to be the hardest working off season player in the nba. He's maybe mostly talk but no one better to punish a lazy player chasing blocks than by putting in the guy working his a** off. It's a lesson in ethic. It's like when coaches purposely make time shares to have 2 or 3 players compete with each other to excel their games.  I think Bobby Portis could be used as a tool to motivate robinson while frustrating the hell out of him to improve his basketball IQ, and it will probably work. Plus Portis spaces the floor on a team that can't shoot 3s so who knows what happens. I can see Robinson getting 3 fouls in the first quarter then sitting him the rest of the game as punishment. If Robinson plays too much with bad habits, he might never break those habits so psychological punishment is the way to go in my opinion. Thats what I'd do at least. Oh you're gonna be lazy and play like Hassan whiteside Robinson? Hell maybe taj Gibson is there for when Robinson plays dumb, Portis plays selfish, and taj is the punishment for both. 

 

Portis has always been the classic case.  Good on him if this is true, but it seems ridiculous that someone could change their personality so drastically.  Have there ever been a bad head case who has changed to a Kobe/MJ type dedication to the game? No.

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https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27640475/ranking-best-players-nba-season-100-51

Ranked 98th: "Kevin Pelton on Robinson's role: After spending most of his rookie campaign coming off the bench, Robinson projects as a starter in 2019-20. Among New York's young players, he is the best equipped with role-player skills to contribute if and when the Knicks add a star."

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The FA signings were perplexing and discouraging for Mitchell's fantasy prospects for sure (Portis, Randle, Taj, MMorris).  There's a lot of possible small ball line-ups where Mitchell can be left out.  Who here trusts Fizdale and the Knicks to do the right thing here?  Plus, he's had knee soreness and issues this offseason.  Love the talent and block potential but hate the situation heading into the season.

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Mitch Rob splashing 3s.

https://streamable.com/nlpiw

 

Yes it's probably the typical off-season BS, but he doesn't look half bad shooting them. 

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1 hour ago, s-kayos said:

Mitch Rob splashing 3s.

https://streamable.com/nlpiw

 

Yes it's probably the typical off-season BS, but he doesn't look half bad shooting them. 

Really hope he doesn't take many.... 

As mentioned in a different thread by @StifleTower2 the value of the stronger FG% far outweighs a minor contribution in 3s. 

Hope he parks under the basket and collects all those bricks and putback dunks

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1 minute ago, chaiway said:

Really hope he doesn't take many.... 

As mentioned in a different thread by @StifleTower2 the value of the stronger FG% far outweighs a minor contribution in 3s. 

Hope he parks under the basket and collects all those bricks and putback dunks

Yeah, none of these guys are shooting threes.  Just like Drummond last year, maybe opportunistically they will be empowered to shoot like one per game bc they’re open, but it’s not something they will deliberately do often.    

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On 9/30/2019 at 3:39 PM, J.T. Marlin said:

The FA signings were perplexing and discouraging for Mitchell's fantasy prospects for sure (Portis, Randle, Taj, MMorris).  There's a lot of possible small ball line-ups where Mitchell can be left out.  Who here trusts Fizdale and the Knicks to do the right thing here?  Plus, he's had knee soreness and issues this offseason.  Love the talent and block potential but hate the situation heading into the season.

Agree, the upside is great but there are a lot more downside risks than Gobert or Capela who also contribute more in points which is a necessity early in drafts without punting. Off topic, it is crazy to me that Capela drops to round 4 occasionally with a 3 year resume of proven production in the same system while there is debate on whether to get Mitch Rob in round 2 or 3 off a 3 month sample with 3 additions to the front court and a bottom 5 coach in the league. As well as the dependence on BLK/TO for value, both of which could take hits... 

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Despite being a preseason game, I think this is indicative of what he's going to do: 5 points, 7 boards, 5 combined stocks, 0 turnovers.  He only scored five points bc he went 2/7 when most nights he will go more like 4/7.  So I'd put him around 9/7 with 5 combined stocks.  Efficiency volume too small to impact either way.  Very little TO.  Top 30 value.  Could be interesting in punt points.  

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3 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Despite being a preseason game, I think this is indicative of what he's going to do: 5 points, 7 boards, 5 combined stocks, 0 turnovers.  He only scored five points bc he went 2/7 when most nights he will go more like 4/7.  So I'd put him around 9/7 with 5 combined stocks.  Efficiency volume too small to impact either way.  Very little TO.  Top 30 value.  Could be interesting in punt points.  

 

Would be very happy w/ 5 combined stocks and 7+ boards. 

A few points to add:

1. He managed to play 28:30 with a "moderate" 3 fouls

2. Knicks shot fairly well tonight (what's the over/under on RJ hitting almost 50%?) so less put back opportunities

3. if he can be anywhere close to the 70% FG he had last year, he'll be impactful on FG% (especially in roto) as he was the 13th best contributor to FG per game last year

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5 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Despite being a preseason game, I think this is indicative of what he's going to do: 5 points, 7 boards, 5 combined stocks, 0 turnovers.  He only scored five points bc he went 2/7 when most nights he will go more like 4/7.  So I'd put him around 9/7 with 5 combined stocks.  Efficiency volume too small to impact either way.  Very little TO.  Top 30 value.  Could be interesting in punt points.  

If somebody has 3+ blocks, 0,5 TO and almost 70 FG%, his value is already sky high and he have TOP30 rank by BBM as you said. But I just don't like that kind of lop-sided value and don't draft him in TOP50. Basically it means that he remains undrafted for me.

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4 minutes ago, apatas said:

If somebody has 3+ blocks, 0,5 TO and almost 70 FG%, his value is already sky high and he have TOP30 rank by BBM as you said. But I just don't like that kind of lop-sided value and don't draft him in TOP50. Basically it means that he remains undrafted for me.

 

If he falls outside the top 30 (like he did in my dynasty draft), I would be taking him. You can punt categories and he will be much more valuable.

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Posted (edited)

I think that everybody here has looked BBM rankings statsheet which have various colors from dark green to dark red. Also every category has a value by number. Mitch Rob has four red categories, all of them valued worse than -1. His blocks if these go up to 3+ this season basically cancel out three of his bad categories. But I don't like it! I like if three +1 categories will cancel one -4. That is my player! And then I can punt this only bad cat. Also there is huge number of players near TOP50 who don't have any red (only rose-red) category like Horford, Marc Gasol, Otto Porter, Pascal Siakam, Gallinari, These players statset I like very much. Therefore I don't rank players by BBM total value but I do my own prerank where I usually rank these lop-sided players by 10-30 places lower than their actual BBM value and move up versatile players. Mitch Rob is just not my man and I can't punt anything if I have him. Right now he is 66th in my prerank and he stays there.

Edited by apatas

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Do you guys actually watched him play? I never considered him much of a rebounder. He's purely a shot blocking specialist. He gets into foul trouble alot , huge reason why he barely played more then 20ppg. I was shocked he had a 26 adp on Yahoo. Absolutely perplexing. Also add to the fact the Portis, Gibson will take some minutes from him if he gets into foul trouble. 

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On 9/30/2019 at 5:39 PM, J.T. Marlin said:

The FA signings were perplexing and discouraging for Mitchell's fantasy prospects for sure (Portis, Randle, Taj, MMorris).  There's a lot of possible small ball line-ups where Mitchell can be left out.  Who here trusts Fizdale and the Knicks to do the right thing here?  Plus, he's had knee soreness and issues this offseason.  Love the talent and block potential but hate the situation heading into the season.

 

They're only perplexing to you because you play fantasy. But Mitchell Robinson is a foul machine, and is still very young. The Knicks had to find quality bigs to back him up.

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5 minutes ago, EsTiLO said:

Do you guys actually watched him play? I never considered him much of a rebounder. He's purely a shot blocking specialist. He gets into foul trouble alot , huge reason why he barely played more then 20ppg. I was shocked he had a 26 adp on Yahoo. Absolutely perplexing. Also add to the fact the Portis, Gibson will take some minutes from him if he gets into foul trouble. 

I have seen him play and also don’t think he’s worth a top 25 pick.   But I rolled the dice on him in the 40s in a league where I’m punting FT/points.  I think at that price in those settings the upside justifies the risk, despite me talking s--- about him constantly in the preseason, just like I talked s--- about Jarrett Allen last year.  And will talk s--- about the next overhyped big next year...and the year after that.  

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Top 25 pick for a guy that only helps you in one category + not good + Knicks. Lmao.

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i can see bobby portis taking a large chunk of minutes most of the season, a big DND for me. if your looking for blocks, hassan is a safer/more value bet

Edited by IT2

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9 hours ago, IT2 said:

i can see bobby portis taking a large chunk of minutes most of the season, a big DND for me. if your looking for blocks, hassan is a safer/more value bet

I disagree, the only way to stop Robinson getting mins will be foul troubles. Knicks will give Robinson all the mins he can handle to help him understand and improve his game since he is one of the few young talents that has a chance to be a star on this current knicks team. I would draft him if he fall out of 3rd round into early 4th.

Edited by ber

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9 hours ago, IT2 said:

i can see bobby portis taking a large chunk of minutes most of the season, a big DND for me. if your looking for blocks, hassan is a safer/more value bet

Whiteside isn’t safer for sure.  He was the worst FT shooter last year and is a nut case. And Nurkic coming back is a risk.  He might be a value play if you want to GAMBLE on his FT improving but that makes him not safer.  

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1 hour ago, ber said:

I disagree, the only way to stop Robinson getting mins will be foul troubles. Knicks will give Robinson all the mins he can handle to help him understand and improve his game since he is one of the few young talents that has a chance to be a star on this current knicks team. I would draft him if he fall out of 3rd round into early 4th.

Alright DND was probably not the right word, i mean't more so i wouldn't draft him at the current ADP hes at. If we are going by the same rounds, Myles Turner would be my preference. And if he was in the same range as Hassan, sure I'll happily take him then. 

Edited by IT2

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

Whiteside isn’t safer for sure.  He was the worst FT shooter last year and is a nut case. And Nurkic coming back is a risk.  He might be a value play if you want to GAMBLE on his FT improving but that makes him not safer.  

I don't think his FT is that bad considering he only takes 4 a game, which is basically on par with Capela. 

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10 minutes ago, IT2 said:

I don't think his FT is that bad considering he only takes 4 a game, which is basically on par with Capela. 

Nothing personal.  But I’m tired of debating objective math.  Go to BBM.  Click on FT.  Scroll to the bottom.  See Whiteside: negative 3.31.  That’s the worst impact of anyone.

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4 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Nothing personal.  But I’m tired of debating objective math.  Go to BBM.  Click on FT.  Scroll to the bottom.  See Whiteside: negative 3.31.  That’s the worst impact of anyone.

 

The debate with Whiteside is simple.  If you're drafting him you're hoping that the 44% was an extreme outlier and he returns to around the 60% range which on 3+ attempts isn't as bad as the "others", and he plays big minutes and is amongst the leaders in reb/blk and chips in 55% FG.  There is extreme risk as mentioned - headcase, Nurk, poor FT sticks.  It's more of a late desperation play than anything.  But I'm starting to warm up to McGee or Nance over Whiteside as 2 players available slightly later.    

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