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Mitchell Robinson 2019-2020 Outlook

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Because if you are punting both FT% and Points Mitchell Robinson is valued at 1st round while Javale McGee is rated 3rd. 
 

Ask yourself this question. Who is the go to scorer on the Knicks? 

 

To sustain value, McGee has to hope he still gets 12 points a game and has the chance to still get 7 rebounds next to AD, Lebron, Rondo with the latter two trying to push the floor.
 

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1 minute ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

Ask yourself this question. Who is the go to scorer on the Knicks?

Julius Randle.

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6 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

For all of you drafting Mitch in first 4 rounds I have a question:  Do you remember Jarrett Allen last  season?    I wish I can find his thread for 2018/2109

looking at BBM and his

Mitch  has huge positive contribution in blocks, TOs are also very good (positive).  FG% contribution is positive in theory. In reality it does not make significant impact on your team FG%  (only 4.4 attempts). Both % categories (FG% and  FT%) have  low attempts and are  basically neutral contribution. Rebounds are also neutral.

In short,  his contributions will be positive in two categories (blocks and TOs),  neutral in three categories (fg%, ft%, reb) and negative  in four categories (3s, pts, ast, stl)

If  Mitch is not elite in blocks for whatever reason (Fizdale, Randle, Portis, Taj, Morris, foul troubles, injuries, zombie invasion...) question to ask is:  Is he rosterable?

Are you willing to invest pick in first  4 rounds on such  a player?

I know I am not. I prefer proven players in first 5 rounds that will contribute to my team .

 

Agreed. Yes, he was insane with the blocks last year, but like you said, he really only has half a season of that kind of production, and there are lots of other external factors that could prevent him from reaching that level. Now, if his ADP was after the 5th-6th round, i'd take a chance on him, no questions asked. But when it comes to your first 4 picks, the guys who will be the cornerstones of your team and essentially help you win, I prefer someone with more of a history of producing on a consistent basis.

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You should only be drafting Mitch between rounds 3-4 if you are planning to build a multi cat punt squad (PTS/FT/3s). If you're grabbing him in the second or third while attempting to be solid across all categories, you're just asking for trouble. 

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17 minutes ago, taenggg said:

You should only be drafting Mitch between rounds 3-4 if you are planning to build a multi cat punt squad (PTS/FT/3s). If you're grabbing him in the second or third while attempting to be solid across all categories, you're just asking for trouble. 

 

I drafted him in the 4th without punting any of those said categories. I think I'm looking solid enough? This makes no sense at all. 

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59 minutes ago, HispasianTuna said:

I drafted him in the 4th without punting any of those said categories. I think I'm looking solid enough? This makes no sense at all. 

Team in your signature?   Redraft or keepers league?

 

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I had the 12th pick in a recent money draft and he fell to me in the 5th/6th round. My first 4 picks were Harden, Ayton, Booker, and Siakam so i figured Mitchell's point deficit wouldn't hurt me that much. I had to choose between Mitch and Whiteside 

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1 hour ago, HispasianTuna said:

 

I drafted him in the 4th without punting any of those said categories. I think I'm looking solid enough? This makes no sense at all. 

It makes perfect sense if you understand how punting works. Even at his floor let's say 7/7/2 blocks I'd estimate he would still be a top 25-30 in a punt build. It's not ideal but he is still contributing positively to the punt build. 

Now take 7/7/2, remove all punting parameters and say you drafted him in the 2nd / 3rd / early 4th. That's a pretty lousy line to me considering where he was drafted. 

Not everyone can draft well like you sir and you are taking an inherent risk by drafting Mitch early if he doesn't deliver the goods. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Soccer8098 said:

I had the 12th pick in a recent money draft and he fell to me in the 5th/6th round. My first 4 picks were Harden, Ayton, Booker, and Siakam so i figured Mitchell's point deficit wouldn't hurt me that much. I had to choose between Mitch and Whiteside 

 

So you're telling me you got Harden 12th overall and Booker 36th???

JLaw ok gif

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4 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

So you're telling me you got Harden 12th overall and Booker 36th???

JLaw ok gif

No, Its kind of complicated, but this is a league with my friends and I made a deal before the draft with the guy picking 4th that I would get the 4th and 21st picks if Ben Simmons fell to 12 (he really wanted him for some reason). So my 12 and 13 for his 4 and 21 - Harden fell to 4 and he kept his word. I picked the rest of the draft from my 12/13 spot

But yeah, Booker somehow fell to 36. 

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Just now, Soccer8098 said:

No, Its kind of complicated, but this is a league with my friends and I made a deal before the draft with the guy picking 4th that I would get the 4th and 21st picks if Ben Simmons fell to 12 (he really wanted him for some reason). So my 12 and 13 for his 4 and 21 - Harden fell to 4 and he kept his word. I picked the rest of the draft from my 12/13 spot

But yeah, Booker somehow fell to 36. 

 

Ok, that makes sense, Booker once in a while can fall there but I was more or less just adding to what I mistakenly viewed as Harden going 12th overall. No worries here now, carry on.

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30 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Team in your signature?   Redraft or keepers league?

 

 

Redraft, and yes team in my sig. 

 

6 minutes ago, taenggg said:

It makes perfect sense if you understand how punting works. Even at his floor let's say 7/7/2 blocks I'd estimate he would still be a top 25-30 in a punt build. It's not ideal but he is still contributing positively to the punt build. 

Now take 7/7/2, remove all punting parameters and say you drafted him in the 2nd / 3rd / early 4th. That's a pretty lousy line to me considering where he was drafted. 

Not everyone can draft well like you sir and you are taking an inherent risk by drafting Mitch early if he doesn't deliver the goods. 

 

 

I understand what punting is, and I do understand your point. I just don't agree with automatically assuming that just because you draft a certain player, you almost HAVE to punt certain categories or at least plan it. And I'm only referring to punting the 3 said categories that you recommended punting if you were to draft Mitch early, which I'm not consciously punting. Honestly, time will tell if Mitch will pay out for people who drafted him early or people who drafted who mid when he fell. I think it's a little too much back and forth and the season hasn't started yet 😃

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1 hour ago, HispasianTuna said:

Redraft, and yes team in my sig. 

Assuming that you got  AD, Kemba and  D. Mitchell in first 3 rounds then M. Robinson in 4th I am very curious to know what rounds did you draft your other players?

according to https://www.fantasypros.com/nba/adp/overall.php , adp  for  your other players: J. Murray 51,  Horford is 65,  , Allen 82, J. Richardson  83

Which one was sliding in the draft?

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4 hours ago, PUNTSQUAD said:

Can anyone convince me why I should invest a high pick in MitchRob at 3-5th rd when I can simply just take JaVale at 7th-9th instead?

 

I actually want to be convinced because I have MitchRob on my board for a punt ft/pts build but I'm beginning to have second thoughts

 

4 hours ago, JMega said:

I opted to pick Draymond instead of him in the 3rd round for my Punt FT/PTS/3s build. There are solid bigs later (Capela, Javale, Whiteside, Adams, Poetle, etc) who you can grab and still have the best FG, Rebs & Blocks team by far.

 

4 hours ago, PUNTSQUAD said:

 

That's what I'm thinking. I'm highly valuing Draymond's AST/STL in the 3rd.  It's somewhat surprising that there seems to be a surplus of BLK much later in the draft, whether the source be a Jerami Grant or Richaun Holmes or Maxi Kleber 

 

This is it.  If you're punting points / FT then Draymond in the 3rd is the play.  If Mitch is there in the 4th great, if not I think you'll be fine in blocks anyway with the rest of your roster construction (I've gotten Lopez, McGee, etc) later.  It's more important to try and fill assists and 3's without hurting your FG / TO too much...so I think I've gone point guard in the 4th/5th every time...usually Lowry/Conley/Bledsoe.  In two snake drafts H2H I've punted points (and FT) and went - 

 

Jokic / Drummond / Draymond / Lowry / Lopez 

Drummond / Gobert / Draymond / Ro-Co / Lowry / Horford

 

Then just trying to jam in 3 + D and some cheap assists / big men later...I like the first team better as it covers assists better with Jokic / Dray and gives more flexibility later to go for more big man stats / 3's.  

 

I feel very confident in both leagues of at least placing...but hopefully much more...

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8 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

 

 

This is it.  If you're punting points / FT then Draymond in the 3rd is the play.  If Mitch is there in the 4th great, if not I think you'll be fine in blocks anyway with the rest of your roster construction (I've gotten Lopez, McGee, etc) later.  It's more important to try and fill assists and 3's without hurting your FG / TO too much...so I think I've gone point guard in the 4th/5th every time...usually Lowry/Conley/Bledsoe.  In two snake drafts H2H I've punted points (and FT) and went - 

 

Jokic / Drummond / Draymond / Lowry / Lopez 

Drummond / Gobert / Draymond / Ro-Co / Lowry / Horford

 

Then just trying to jam in 3 + D and some cheap assists / big men later...I like the first team better as it covers assists better with Jokic / Dray and gives more flexibility later to go for more big man stats / 3's.  

 

I feel very confident in both leagues of at least placing...but hopefully much more...

Also did something similar but opted to grab Mitch in the 4th (43rd overall) instead of a guard, then chose a guard over mitch in another league. Really depends to be honest. If you have two ast guys within your first three picks I think going for Mitch is fine. 

Jokic / Drummond / Simmons / Mitch / Bam

Simmons / Gobert / Draymond / Cp3 / Adams

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56 minutes ago, taenggg said:

Also did something similar but opted to grab Mitch in the 4th (43rd overall) instead of a guard, then chose a guard over mitch in another league. Really depends to be honest. If you have two ast guys within your first three picks I think going for Mitch is fine. 

Jokic / Drummond / Simmons / Mitch / Bam

Simmons / Gobert / Draymond / Cp3 / Adams

 

Nice!  Simmons is interesting because you definitely want his assists / counting stats + high FG.  But he also handicaps you in 3's, so it turns into a triple punt sort of...but that's ok too...I really like both squads and they seem very hard to beat...

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Where would you draft hin in Roto. I think I will avoid him in the rest of my draft because of his coach and go for safer options. 

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42 minutes ago, Chrizz said:

Where would you draft hin in Roto. I think I will avoid him in the rest of my draft because of his coach and go for safer options. 

 

he was drafted around mid 4th round in 12 teams roto leauge 9 cats. The GM drafted him also drafted McGee around 9th round. Those 2 guys pretty much secured the blocks for that GM.

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19 hours ago, fabrar said:

Agreed. Yes, he was insane with the blocks last year, but like you said, he really only has half a season of that kind of production, and there are lots of other external factors that could prevent him from reaching that level. Now, if his ADP was after the 5th-6th round, i'd take a chance on him, no questions asked. But when it comes to your first 4 picks, the guys who will be the cornerstones of your team and essentially help you win, I prefer someone with more of a history of producing on a consistent basis.

while he has a point, hes capable of helping you win a week on blocks alone lol 

Btw how is he neutral on rebounds and FG%? lol those should certainly be somewhat positive. 

Edited by WhatIsThisWizardry

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16 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Assuming that you got  AD, Kemba and  D. Mitchell in first 3 rounds then M. Robinson in 4th I am very curious to know what rounds did you draft your other players?

according to https://www.fantasypros.com/nba/adp/overall.php , adp  for  your other players: J. Murray 51,  Horford is 65,  , Allen 82, J. Richardson  83

Which one was sliding in the draft?

 

I think J.Rich was the one who slid the most on my squad. Here's my draft result in order (I dropped Osman for Clarke):

 

 

 

 
1. (2) Anthony Davis (LAL - PF,C)
2. (23) Kemba Walker (Bos - PG)
3. (29) Donovan Mitchell (Uta - PG,SG)
4. (44) Mitchell Robinson (NY - C)
5. (53) Jamal Murray (Den - PG,SG)
6. (71) Al Horford (Phi - PF,C)
7. (78) Josh Richardson (Phi - SG,SF)
8. (91) Jarrett Allen (Bkn - PF,C)
9. (101) Andrew Wiggins (Min - SG,SF)
10. (120) Taurean Prince (Bkn - SF)
11. (125) Dario Saric (Pho - PF,C)
12. (140) Tim Hardaway Jr. (Dal - SG,SF)
13. (149) Rui Hachimura (Was - PF)
14. (164) Cedi Osman (Cle - SF,PF)
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Just my opinion for guys in points leagues. Roto guys can ignore. 

 

I remember all the hype on Serge Ibaka a few years ago and I got sucked in drafting him high in a points league. Big mistake. So I thought I would give my point league perspective on Robinson to save you from making my Ibaka mistake.

 

Robinson was ranked 181 in my points league for 2019. He did slightly better in the 2nd half of the year and was 113. 

He was pretty efficient with his minutes when on the court. The second half he got about 23 minutes on the court and had almost 22 fantasy points a game using CBS rules.

The projections I've seen for points leagues have him around 100. CBS shows ADP of 61 to 131.

 

So based on your thoughts on overall improvement and maybe increased minutes, how Portis factors into his playing time, the fact he is on the Knicks, and how many centers you draft, he could be worth a late round draft choice.

 I have a lot of centers I like a lot better later in the draft, but he could prove me wrong if his 2nd half improvement continues and the Knicks don't need Portis's offense. 

Edited by rabaak
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On 10/18/2019 at 9:21 AM, HispasianTuna said:

 

I think J.Rich was the one who slid the most on my squad. Here's my draft result in order (I dropped Osman for Clarke):

 

 

 

 
1. (2) Anthony Davis (LAL - PF,C)
2. (23) Kemba Walker (Bos - PG)
3. (29) Donovan Mitchell (Uta - PG,SG)
4. (44) Mitchell Robinson (NY - C)
5. (53) Jamal Murray (Den - PG,SG)
6. (71) Al Horford (Phi - PF,C)
7. (78) Josh Richardson (Phi - SG,SF)
8. (91) Jarrett Allen (Bkn - PF,C)
9. (101) Andrew Wiggins (Min - SG,SF)
10. (120) Taurean Prince (Bkn - SF)
11. (125) Dario Saric (Pho - PF,C)
12. (140) Tim Hardaway Jr. (Dal - SG,SF)
13. (149) Rui Hachimura (Was - PF)
14. (164) Cedi Osman (Cle - SF,PF)

This is pretty reasonable.  Not commenting on your team but to dispel doubts about whether these guys would ever fall like this.  I play many money leagues.  I’ve seen every single one of these guys fall that far, never in the same draft obviously, but each of those guys can potentially fall that far.  Haters...

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