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Dylan Cease 2019 Outlook

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Command was a bit spotty. But that’s to be expected in his first start. Definitely got better as the game wore on and his stuff is as advertised.

 

The solo HR in the 5th was pretty weak too. Got into the wind stream and got into the first row.

 

All together, solid and interesting start.

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Before the HR he was on pace for roughly 25 points in my points league that brutally penalizes HRs...for reference the #1 SP Scherzer averages 43.8 

If he can settle in his fastball command he will definitely make some waves ROS

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8 minutes ago, terminator10 said:

Solid start, plenty of great breaking balls and a high velocity fastball touching 100 in his 1st start but settling mid to upper 90s. Just needs better control of it 

 

Between McKay Gallen and Cease, I would say Cease has the highest upside

 I would put him first in that group as well. How many guys come up throwing as hard as he does and have a legitimate four pitch mix? Of course the command is an issue, but the stuff is unquestionable.

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1 minute ago, sleepysock said:

 I would put him first in that group as well. How many guys come up throwing as hard as he does and have a legitimate four pitch mix? Of course the command is an issue, but the stuff is unquestionable.

I would go 

 

Floor: Gallen 

Upside: Cease 

Per Inning: McKay

 

Overall: ???

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I take it that he was sabotaging himself in Triple A last month with high fastballs out of the zone.  As was noted in his minor league thread, he didn’t allow very many extra-base hits.  And that homer today was pretty cheap.  So he’s not very hittable, but his walk rate is going to be alarmingly high in the short term.  I wouldn’t have called him up until he improved his fastball command in Triple A, but it sure was exciting to watch him today.  Much better than the Despaignes and Ervin Santanas of the world.

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Wow, lots of spin in this thread... 5 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 3 ER vs a putrid lineup with 2 hitters hitting 250 or better and none that hit 280, at home, with perfect afternoon weather... This is a bad start... It doesn't get any easier of a start than this and those numbers are not good.

I'd have no confidence starting him vs any other team.

He's got longterm upside don't get me wrong, but in the immediate for current day production I wouldn't bother.

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"This was against a terrible lineup, but Cease has the stuff to continue to miss bats at the MLB level. The question is whether the White Sox will give him the chance."

Really?  The team has already said he is in the rotation.  Another high quality Rotoworld blurb... 🙄  I expect nothing more.  errr, shouldn't it be less?

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3 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Wow, lots of spin in this thread... 5 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 3 ER vs a putrid lineup with 2 hitters hitting 250 or better and none that hit 280, at home, with perfect afternoon weather... This is a bad start... It doesn't get any easier of a start than this and those numbers are not good.

I'd have no confidence starting him vs any other team.

He's got longterm upside don't get me wrong, but in the immediate for current day production I wouldn't bother.

100% this. I highly doubt he’ll be an asset in redraft leagues this year. His command problems need to get ironed out and the likelihood of him doing that in the next month or so seems pretty improbable. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him with a good k/9, but I think he’ll be a ratio killer (again just talking about this year). 

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Posted (edited)

He's another Nick Pivetta.

People on here when they find out he's Nick Pivetta and their ratios explode:

what shocked GIF

Edited by hangin n wangin
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Can't wait for half of you to mysteriously disappear with your scorching hot takes in 3 weeks 😂

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Why are people who didn't even bother watching the game commenting on how he did overall? Lmao.  Yeah his final line is shot but it doesn't tell whole story. If the only thing I need to worry about is someone's fastball command because the guy has 3 plus secondary pitches, I'm more than willing to take the walks. 

 

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57 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

Can't wait for half of you to mysteriously disappear with your scorching hot takes in 3 weeks 😂

So wait, calling walking 4 and giving up 4 hits and 3 runs in 5 innings at home vs a horrendous lineup a bad start is now a hot take? 🤣

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48 minutes ago, bunnyzclan said:

Why are people who didn't even bother watching the game commenting on how he did overall? Lmao.  Yeah his final line is shot but it doesn't tell whole story. If the only thing I need to worry about is someone's fastball command because the guy has 3 plus secondary pitches, I'm more than willing to take the walks. 

 

Because people are allowed to make comments on this forum without having observed the actual performance?  Instead of focusing on other posters, why not just make your own comments while mentioning you watched the game?

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52 minutes ago, bunnyzclan said:

Why are people who didn't even bother watching the game commenting on how he did overall? Lmao.  Yeah his final line is shot but it doesn't tell whole story. If the only thing I need to worry about is someone's fastball command because the guy has 3 plus secondary pitches, I'm more than willing to take the walks. 

 

The guy pitched to a 1.57 WHIP at AAA this year. Walking hitters and poor fastball command is most definitely something you should be concerned about at the major league level, regardless of plus secondary pitches.

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1 hour ago, bunnyzclan said:

Why are people who didn't even bother watching the game commenting on how he did overall? Lmao.  Yeah his final line is shot but it doesn't tell whole story. If the only thing I need to worry about is someone's fastball command because the guy has 3 plus secondary pitches, I'm more than willing to take the walks. 

 

For some strange reason my fantasy league uses his actual results in my scoring instead of my visual observations on a scale of 1-10... Maybe yours is different.

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18 minutes ago, meh2 said:

The guy pitched to a 1.57 WHIP at AAA this year. Walking hitters and poor fastball command is most definitely something you should be concerned about at the major league level, regardless of plus secondary pitches.

Exactly why I didn’t bother in redraft.  I have him in 2 keepers I like his talent.  But this is going to be a work in progress.  He’s got knock out stuff.  But his command sucks.  Blake Snell couldn’t throw strikes for 2 years before winning Cy Young.  You have to be patient with young arms.  Doesn’t click overnight.  Raw stuff guys with plus breaking pitches, huge fastballs, and bad command are toughest to project because they’re volatile in results and readiness vary.  Tigers lineup sucks but major league is night and day vs AAA.  I thought he fared solidly personally.  Liked what I saw.  Looking forward to watching next start see if he’s made any adjustments with major league coaches.

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14 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

For some strange reason my fantasy league uses his actual results in my scoring instead of my visual observations on a scale of 1-10... Maybe yours is different.

 

While it's certainly true, the only thing matters is results, on the other hand yesterday's results don't matter for the next game. So yeah, if you started him your ratios weren't great but 6ks and wins are nice.

 

I believe most of his walks were in the first inning and he had no ks that inning either. So 6ks in the next 4 IP with 3 hits and 1-2 walks seems pretty decent. A homer not ideal.  So, I'm not putting too much stock into someone's first inning in my player evaluation. 

 

I think he can be Robbie Rayesque ROS. Hopefully more of the better than the worse. If he can make some control adjustments, there's something really good brewing.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Exactly why I didn’t bother in redraft.  I have him in 2 keepers I like his talent.  But this is going to be a work in progress.  He’s got knock out stuff.  But his command sucks.  Blake Snell couldn’t throw strikes for 2 years before winning Cy Young.  You have to be patient with young arms.  Doesn’t click overnight.  Raw stuff guys with plus breaking pitches, huge fastballs, and bad command are toughest to project because they’re volatile in results and readiness vary.  Tigers lineup sucks but major league is night and day vs AAA.  I thought he fared solidly personally.  Liked what I saw.  Looking forward to watching next start see if he’s made any adjustments with major league coaches.

Yep. Nuff said. It’s not a knock on his talent. Everyone can see he oozes potential but it doesn’t look like he’s close to harnessing it yet. He’s still super young. I’m sure he will be a very solid fantasy pitcher eventually. This year I don’t see it. And people are getting upset at criticism towards him when it’s pretty evident why his numbers in triple A were  not good. 

 

Edited by hangin n wangin

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I would think a good pitching coach could find a mechanical flaw or something to get him under control.  He missed consistently high, seems like that could be corrected.  If he was all over the place then it would be hard to pinpoint something to correct.  Since he was always missing high, I would think that could be corrected.  I'm guessing a ERA around 4.00, WHIP in the 1.3-1.35 range with a good number of K's.  If that works for your team, I could see passing on him as well depending on the situation.

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I don’t think it’s as simple as only missing high. 

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I watched him today, 1'st inning could have been a breeze... but w 2 on, nobody out, and a 1-2 count... he appeared to overthrow the fastball till he walked a guy. Then walked the next guy, then hit a guy w/ 2 strikes. A seeing eye grounder back up the middle plated two ER, but ALL of that was avoidable. Yes, nervous first inning and all, but he was missing by a ton and getting help from the blue. That first inning, it was 99 FB, and a 78-79 12/6 curve. It didn't play well w/ out the third pitch, just too much speed differential and guys could pick it up easily. In fact, the two RBI single had the guy fooled, way out in front, but he still put it in play given the slow speed. 

From there he did settle down, but appeared to be overthrowing the FB all day, flying open and wanting to watch the K (if that makes sense), rather than finishing the pitch. I didn't see the HR, but heard it was a wall scraper. One of the "hits" was BS, hit Moncada's glove as he was in perfect position to make an out. That aside, he could have had a much worse line TBH, but his stuff is legit! Needs to mix in the slider and change more, but if he learns to trust the FB and not overthrow, the other pitches will play nicely. Mixed bag, could have been much worse, but he's got Ace level stuff... pretty much what we already knew. 

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22 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

I don’t think it’s as simple as only missing high. 

 

I’m sure I’m exaggerating, but it seemed like there were upwards of 40 pitches that sailed half a foot above the strike zone.  It’s like his mission is to hit the very upper reaches of the strike zone with his upper 90s heat, and then kill hitters slowly with the devastating off-speed stuff which dips to the bottom or below the strike zone.  Very few mistake pitches over the middle.  So if he can master the high heat (I don’t know if it’s command or control, maybe it’s a combination of both), then we’re talking bonafide #1 starter.

 

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8 minutes ago, LarryChip10 said:

I watched him today, 1'st inning could have been a breeze... but w 2 on, nobody out, and a 1-2 count... he appeared to overthrow the fastball till he walked a guy. Then walked the next guy, then hit a guy w/ 2 strikes. A seeing eye grounder back up the middle plated two ER, but ALL of that was avoidable. Yes, nervous first inning and all, but he was missing by a ton and getting help from the blue. That first inning, it was 99 FB, and a 78-79 12/6 curve. It didn't play well w/ out the third pitch, just too much speed differential and guys could pick it up easily. In fact, the two RBI single had the guy fooled, way out in front, but he still put it in play given the slow speed. 

From there he did settle down, but appeared to be overthrowing the FB all day, flying open and wanting to watch the K (if that makes sense), rather than finishing the pitch. I didn't see the HR, but heard it was a wall scraper. One of the "hits" was BS, hit Moncada's glove as he was in perfect position to make an out. That aside, he could have had a much worse line TBH, but his stuff is legit! Needs to mix in the slider and change more, but if he learns to trust the FB and not overthrow, the other pitches will play nicely. Mixed bag, could have been much worse, but he's got Ace level stuff... pretty much what we already knew. 

 

I watched most of it and agree. I think this is a good summary. 👍

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I meant to say "2 outs, nobody on"... in the first sentence. I'm feeling dyslexic... lol

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