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Dylan Cease 2019 Outlook

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4 hours ago, StevieStats said:

So wait, calling walking 4 and giving up 4 hits and 3 runs in 5 innings at home vs a horrendous lineup a bad start is now a hot take?Â đŸ€Ł

It's a hot take when you intentionally ignore the fact that he looked good for the vast majority of the game, yes. All the damage was done during a first inning when he clearly was surging adrenaline and in his last IP on a lazy fly ball that got caught in a surge of wind that sailed it just over the wall. Had he given up 7 runs in the first and then struck out the next 9 before being lifted would you still be thumping the same "the only way to evaluate a performance is with the bottom line" Bible? If so I'm guessing you don't win too many fantasy leagues. There's a reason why no one was trading Chris Sale for Jon Lester in April. There's a reason I was pimping Giolito when he still had a 5 ERA earlier this season. There is more to evaluating pitchers than just looking at the box score.

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9 hours ago, StevieStats said:

He's home against a Tigers lineup that has 2 hitters batting .250 or better, and no one hitting .280.

82 degrees, cloudy, 4 MPH of wind.

I mean if he can't pitch well today I don't know when he would.

You act like he can't get better. He has one of the best pitching coaches in the business coaching him now. What were you expecting, a no-hitter because the Tigers pretty much suck? Much of his lack of fastball command is him overthrowing. It could be simple as his release point, or where his foot lands after releasing the ball. Let Mr. Cooper get with him and lets give this some time before we consider Mr. Cease a failure.

 

Cooper has worked in the White Sox organization since 1988, when he served as a minor league pitching coach for the Single-A South Bend Silver Hawks. He also served as pitching coach for the Single-A Advanced Sarasota White Sox from 1989 through 1991 and the Double-A Birmingham Barons in 1992. He became the White Sox minor league pitching coordinator from 1993 through 2002, aside from serving as pitching coach for the Triple-A Nashville Sounds in 1995 and 1996.

Cooper became the White Sox pitching coach in July 2002, replacing Nardi Contreras.[2] With the departure of Ozzie Guillén on September 26, 2011, and Joey Cora on September 27, 2011, Cooper became the 38th manager of the White Sox, filling the role for the final two games of the 2011 season before yielding the position to Robin Ventura.[3]

Cooper is regarded as one of baseball's best pitching coaches for developing young talent. He told the Chicago Sun-Times in 2018, "I love being part of young people’s lives helping them achieve the dreams they’re dreaming about. That’s what I’m into.’’[4]

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

It's a hot take when you intentionally ignore the fact that he looked good for the vast majority of the game, yes. All the damage was done during a first inning when he clearly was surging adrenaline and in his last IP on a lazy fly ball that got caught in a surge of wind that sailed it just over the wall. Had he given up 7 runs in the first and then struck out the next 9 before being lifted would you still be thumping the same "the only way to evaluate a performance is with the bottom line" Bible? If so I'm guessing you don't win too many fantasy leagues. There's a reason why no one was trading Chris Sale for Jon Lester in April. There's a reason I was pimping Giolito when he still had a 5 ERA earlier this season. There is more to evaluating pitchers than just looking at the box score.

 

Except he really didn’t look good...he missed the zone with his FB all start long. Lots of guys pump the gas and some can control it and hit the Zone. Cease couldn’t all start long.

and again, he wasn’t mixing pitches at all. McCann is likely partially to blame.

8 of his 9 first pitches were fastballs that a garbage lineup sat and took taking balls.

not impressed.

im assuming you have shares in deep keeper leagues as to why you’re defending him.

 

5.40 era, 1.60 whip meaning he averaged more than 1 and a half walks/hits during his outing against a team of AAA players. Ha. Hahaha. Haha. Lol. 

Edited by mhuhn23

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1 hour ago, mhuhn23 said:

 

Except he really didn’t look good...he missed the zone with his FB all start long. Lots of guys pump the gas and some can control it and hit the Zone. Cease couldn’t all start long.

and again, he wasn’t mixing pitches at all. McCann is likely partially to blame.

8 of his 9 first pitches were fastballs that a garbage lineup sat and took taking balls.

not impressed.

im assuming you have shares in deep keeper leagues as to why you’re defending him.

 

5.40 era, 1.60 whip meaning he averaged more than 1 and a half walks/hits during his outing against a team of AAA players. Ha. Hahaha. Haha. Lol. 

The last part is so unneeded, and that's a mere 5 IP to draw your laugh-a-thon? (The real problem as I've stated, is in 360+ IP in the minors, he's been well above a 4BB/9) 4BB in 5 IP today is the only concern... todays ERA/WHIP have no merit. 

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1 hour ago, mhuhn23 said:

 

Except he really didn’t look good...he missed the zone with his FB all start long. Lots of guys pump the gas and some can control it and hit the Zone. Cease couldn’t all start long.

and again, he wasn’t mixing pitches at all. McCann is likely partially to blame.

8 of his 9 first pitches were fastballs that a garbage lineup sat and took taking balls.

not impressed.

im assuming you have shares in deep keeper leagues as to why you’re defending him.

 

5.40 era, 1.60 whip meaning he averaged more than 1 and a half walks/hits during his outing against a team of AAA players. Ha. Hahaha. Haha. Lol. 

Another scorching hot take. "Didn't mix pitches," you say. Is that why he threw more than 40 off-speed pitches today? I swear some of you guys just make s--- up hoping no one takes the 15 seconds to look up the game log on BB to fact-check your BS. He started off throwing heat exclusively bc for the average guy debuting it's a lot safer to try and get your big heat over than pitches like 12-6 curveballs. 

Anyway, I would much rather have a young pitcher with 95-100 heat and command issues who can throw his off-speed stuff for strikes than a guy who has a good heater and not much else. Makes him a much more likely candidate to stick as a starter. 

And i'm defending Cease not bc I have many shares but because I've seen him pitch a bunch, not just today. It's hard to listen to snap judgments based on box scores that don't reflect reality particularly well. His command isn't great. He's not Maddux. But you don't need to be. He has Rodon-level command with a better secondary arsenal than Rodon. If that doesn't get you mildly excited about his potential and/or his ability to contribute in everything but shallow leagues than you are holding your hoots and hollers too close to the vest. 

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3 hours ago, sleepysock said:

Another scorching hot take. "Didn't mix pitches," you say. Is that why he threw more than 40 off-speed pitches today? I swear some of you guys just make s--- up hoping no one takes the 15 seconds to look up the game log on BB to fact-check your BS. He started off throwing heat exclusively bc for the average guy debuting it's a lot safer to try and get your big heat over than pitches like 12-6 curveballs. 

Anyway, I would much rather have a young pitcher with 95-100 heat and command issues who can throw his off-speed stuff for strikes than a guy who has a good heater and not much else. Makes him a much more likely candidate to stick as a starter. 

And i'm defending Cease not bc I have many shares but because I've seen him pitch a bunch, not just today. It's hard to listen to snap judgments based on box scores that don't reflect reality particularly well. His command isn't great. He's not Maddux. But you don't need to be. He has Rodon-level command with a better secondary arsenal than Rodon. If that doesn't get you mildly excited about his potential and/or his ability to contribute in everything but shallow leagues than you are holding your hoots and hollers too close to the vest. 

What the heck is your fixation with “hot takes”?  Just say what you have to say and move on, sleepy, please!

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5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

What the heck is your fixation with “hot takes”?  Just say what you have to say and move on, sleepy, please!

That was a good hot t.....  Nope, not gonna do it. 😉

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2 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

other than cease pitching like trash is he going to be up ROS?

Yes, he’s up for good. 

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, sleepysock said:

It's a hot take when you intentionally ignore the fact that he looked good for the vast majority of the game, yes. All the damage was done during a first inning when he clearly was surging adrenaline and in his last IP on a lazy fly ball that got caught in a surge of wind that sailed it just over the wall. Had he given up 7 runs in the first and then struck out the next 9 before being lifted would you still be thumping the same "the only way to evaluate a performance is with the bottom line" Bible? If so I'm guessing you don't win too many fantasy leagues. There's a reason why no one was trading Chris Sale for Jon Lester in April. There's a reason I was pimping Giolito when he still had a 5 ERA earlier this season. There is more to evaluating pitchers than just looking at the box score.

So wait... He only pitched 5 innings vs a crap lineup but we have to ignore the 1st inning and ignore the last inning and only pay attention to the other 3? Thats asinine.

He faced an absolute garbage lineup and had a bad start. 2 facts. Its not a hot take, it's what happened.

My original post was about this thread having a lot of spin in it which you have continued to prove to be true. You keep trying to spin his bad performance into a good one. Call a spade a spade -- it was a bad outing... Vs a garbage lineup.

You can very well touch on some positives, but the amount of effort to call this debut good is laughable. It was a bad start, especially considering the competition.

Edited by StevieStats

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18 hours ago, Z06vette said:

You act like he can't get better. He has one of the best pitching coaches in the business coaching him now. What were you expecting, a no-hitter because the Tigers pretty much suck? Much of his lack of fastball command is him overthrowing. It could be simple as his release point, or where his foot lands after releasing the ball. Let Mr. Cooper get with him and lets give this some time before we consider Mr. Cease a failure.

 

Cooper has worked in the White Sox organization since 1988, when he served as a minor league pitching coach for the Single-A South Bend Silver Hawks. He also served as pitching coach for the Single-A Advanced Sarasota White Sox from 1989 through 1991 and the Double-A Birmingham Barons in 1992. He became the White Sox minor league pitching coordinator from 1993 through 2002, aside from serving as pitching coach for the Triple-A Nashville Sounds in 1995 and 1996.

Cooper became the White Sox pitching coach in July 2002, replacing Nardi Contreras.[2] With the departure of Ozzie Guillén on September 26, 2011, and Joey Cora on September 27, 2011, Cooper became the 38th manager of the White Sox, filling the role for the final two games of the 2011 season before yielding the position to Robin Ventura.[3]

Cooper is regarded as one of baseball's best pitching coaches for developing young talent. He told the Chicago Sun-Times in 2018, "I love being part of young people’s lives helping them achieve the dreams they’re dreaming about. That’s what I’m into.’’[4]

That comment i made was looking ahead to the game before the start, it wasn't bashing him.

But separately from that, for production this season, I'll take a pass. I certainly wouldn't let him stay in my lineup next game. But like I've said lots of potential but i view him as a longer term option and not a ready right now type of guy... I mean i could certainly be wrong, just my opinion on his 2019 prospects.

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9 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

That comment i made was looking ahead to the game before the start, it wasn't bashing him.

But separately from that, for production this season, I'll take a pass. I certainly wouldn't let him stay in my lineup next game. But like I've said lots of potential but i view him as a longer term option and not a ready right now type of guy... I mean i could certainly be wrong, just my opinion on his 2019 prospects.

Either way youre judging his prospects off of one god damn outing. Even Snell got ****** by the Tigers. If you're going to judge a guys season off of the bad things you saw without acknowledging that his plus stuff is still legit. Literally one performance. Its the dudes biggest moment of his life. Lmao. People aren't saying that hes a stud for sure, but one showing isnt enough to say hes as useless this season as youre saying. I take it you're one of those people that gave up on Sale after his first performance?

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1 hour ago, bunnyzclan said:

Either way youre judging his prospects off of one god damn outing. Even Snell got ****** by the Tigers. If you're going to judge a guys season off of the bad things you saw without acknowledging that his plus stuff is still legit. Literally one performance. Its the dudes biggest moment of his life. Lmao. People aren't saying that hes a stud for sure, but one showing isnt enough to say hes as useless this season as youre saying. I take it you're one of those people that gave up on Sale after his first performance?

I'm not judging him off one outing... His control issues are persistent throughout his minor league career and took a step backwards this year as well.

I'm talking about where he is right now as a player contributing to THIS season from a fantasy perspective... Top of the charts fastball he can't control to MLB standards yet, and 1 other plus pitch.

Don't see it happening as a fantasy contributor this season, sorry bud.

You do, I don't. One of us will be right and one will be wrong. Thats fantasy baseball.

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40 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

I'm not judging him off one outing... His control issues are persistent throughout his minor league career and took a step backwards this year as well.

I'm talking about where he is right now as a player contributing to THIS season from a fantasy perspective... Top of the charts fastball he can't control to MLB standards yet, and 1 other plus pitch.

Don't see it happening as a fantasy contributor this season, sorry bud.

You do, I don't. One of us will be right and one will be wrong. Thats fantasy baseball.

Because players don't use minor leagues/spring training to work on specific things rather than getting the best line possible? You sound like those Ohtani haters last year after spring training calling him a bust way too early. But i mean MLB coaching staffs and data analysts clearly don't know as much as fantasy baseball managers. 

 

If you actually followed Cease too then youd acknowledge that he was obviously on adrenaline. His fast ball was faster than his minor league fast balls. For someone who follows him you sure are missing some important points.

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4 hours ago, StevieStats said:

So wait... He only pitched 5 innings vs a crap lineup but we have to ignore the 1st inning and ignore the last inning and only pay attention to the other 3? Thats asinine.

He faced an absolute garbage lineup and had a bad start. 2 facts. Its not a hot take, it's what happened.

My original post was about this thread having a lot of spin in it which you have continued to prove to be true. You keep trying to spin his bad performance into a good one. Call a spade a spade -- it was a bad outing... Vs a garbage lineup.

You can very well touch on some positives, but the amount of effort to call this debut good is laughable. It was a bad start, especially considering the competition.

You’re trying to evaluate him like he’s a veteran who is on the cusp of being worthy of a roster spot. It’s absolutely ridiculous. Yes, you remove the first inning when he was so hyped up he probably couldn’t sign his name without looking like he had Parkinson’s. After that he gave up one run over four innings and that one run was a lazy fly ball that got caught in a fierce wind blowing out. If you know anything about getting an edge in fantasy baseball, it’s doing evaluatory work that scratches below the surface. The fact that cease has a four pitch mix with 2 + offspeed pitches that he was able to command during his major league debut is so much more important than the crap that you are holding onto for dear life to back your point. This is a guy with massive K potential pitching in a plum division, aside from Minnesota. 

 

And for everyone that wants to continue clinging to his minor league numbers, take a moment to think about why that 4.50 ERA of his was eighth in the international league. He was essentially pitching in Little League ball parks with a juiced ball. He didn’t go from being dominant last season to mediocre before his call up because he fell apart. And by the way he also sported a BABIP roughly 100 points higher than his career minor league average.

 

The guy had, all things considered, a solid debut that portends more good results than bad moving forward and it’s just odd to me why so many of you are treating it like he was out there pitching like 2018 giolito or something. 

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Yep.  I’m with those who will gladly eat crow if need be for sleepy/bunny if he manages to somehow overcome his obvious control issues during this season in the majors.  

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10 hours ago, bunnyzclan said:

Because players don't use minor leagues/spring training to work on specific things rather than getting the best line possible? You sound like those Ohtani haters last year after spring training calling him a bust way too early. But i mean MLB coaching staffs and data analysts clearly don't know as much as fantasy baseball managers. 

 

If you actually followed Cease too then youd acknowledge that he was obviously on adrenaline. His fast ball was faster than his minor league fast balls. For someone who follows him you sure are missing some important points.

So he's not working on his control/command in AAA? Purposely walking guys? 

Also, spring training is completely different and has no bearing. Regular season minor league play over a large sample size such as his entire career is meaningful.

You seem to be completely ignoring his control issues or at minimum glossing over them as a non-issue. That's the difference between you thinking he's a fantasy contributor in 2019 and my opinion being he won't.

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9 hours ago, sleepysock said:

You’re trying to evaluate him like he’s a veteran who is on the cusp of being worthy of a roster spot. It’s absolutely ridiculous. Yes, you remove the first inning when he was so hyped up he probably couldn’t sign his name without looking like he had Parkinson’s. After that he gave up one run over four innings and that one run was a lazy fly ball that got caught in a fierce wind blowing out. If you know anything about getting an edge in fantasy baseball, it’s doing evaluatory work that scratches below the surface. The fact that cease has a four pitch mix with 2 + offspeed pitches that he was able to command during his major league debut is so much more important than the crap that you are holding onto for dear life to back your point. This is a guy with massive K potential pitching in a plum division, aside from Minnesota. 

 

And for everyone that wants to continue clinging to his minor league numbers, take a moment to think about why that 4.50 ERA of his was eighth in the international league. He was essentially pitching in Little League ball parks with a juiced ball. He didn’t go from being dominant last season to mediocre before his call up because he fell apart. And by the way he also sported a BABIP roughly 100 points higher than his career minor league average.

 

The guy had, all things considered, a solid debut that portends more good results than bad moving forward and it’s just odd to me why so many of you are treating it like he was out there pitching like 2018 giolito or something. 

For me, as one of those who are down on him for this year, I just don’t see where the value will come from. Completely ignore this for keeper or dynasty leagues, but I don’t see much reason to get excited about him in 2019. Last year he threw 123 innings. This year he’s at 73. So maybe he goes 75-80 the rest of the way. The projection systems project his ERA at 4.64-4.88 and his WHIP between 1.46 and 1.52. There’s a lot of risk in this profile and I just don’t see the upside (again just for this year).

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22 hours ago, StevieStats said:

So wait... He only pitched 5 innings vs a crap lineup but we have to ignore the 1st inning and ignore the last inning and only pay attention to the other 3? Thats asinine.

He faced an absolute garbage lineup and had a bad start. 2 facts. Its not a hot take, it's what happened.

My original post was about this thread having a lot of spin in it which you have continued to prove to be true. You keep trying to spin his bad performance into a good one. Call a spade a spade -- it was a bad outing... Vs a garbage lineup.

You can very well touch on some positives, but the amount of effort to call this debut good is laughable. It was a bad start, especially considering the competition.

Sadly much better pitchers (at least development wise) have gotten rocked by awful lineups (Snell, Bauer, etc.), but I don't think it's actually unreasonable to give Cease at least a partial pass for the first inning.  He would be far from the first pitcher to make his debut and have a bad start to the game.  He actually did get better for the next 3 innings, but still, I'd have to side with you for the most part about him and his start.  I was glad he won since I took a flier on him given the matchup, but as I said the day of his debut, I find it hard to actually call the debut legitimately good regardless of whether you give him a bit of a pass for the first inning.  If he had literally cruised through all of his last 4 innings, then ok, maybe it would have still been at least decent.

Regardless of any analysis of his debut start, he still had issues commanding his fastball and that has been a problem with him a lot this season (and previously). Combine that with not being on the greatest team for Wins (other than Giolito), and I don't exactly see the appeal for this season.  I can definitely see several reasons for rostering him in keeper/dynasty leagues, but with quality ratios (and even Wins) being harder to come by this season, I don't see a reason to take a risk with somebody that has obvious red flags.

In the end, like you said, maybe we'll both be wrong, but Cease is volatile and that can't be denied.

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Every top pitching prospect in baseball can't have a Strasburgian major league debut. I'm not concerned after a mediocre debut vs a poor lineup. He will be ok.

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20 hours ago, terminator10 said:

Loved what I saw, starting him with full confidence next start

 

Snell debuted when they still had something of a decent lineup With a good leadoff

22 hours ago, bunnyzclan said:

Because players don't use minor leagues/spring training to work on specific things rather than getting the best line possible? You sound like those Ohtani haters last year after spring training calling him a bust way too early. But i mean MLB coaching staffs and data analysts clearly don't know as much as fantasy baseball managers. 

 

If you actually followed Cease too then youd acknowledge that he was obviously on adrenaline. His fast ball was faster than his minor league fast balls. For someone who follows him you sure are missing some important points.

 

So throwing hard on adrenaline just because it’s a debut start is okay?

Many have come up and looked better.

He was wild and out of control with his stuff from his first pitch.

McCann or himself called on the FB all first inning and he kept throwing it hard as he could instead of simply pitching. Against a terrible lineup led by .270 hitting overpaid Castellanos and Niko Goodrum while fat overpaid and overweight Miggy sat again.

Cease will put it together but nothing about that start was promising.

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so is he a horrible bust or not? I couldn't really make heads or tails out of the last 70 pages over-analyzing one start. 

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29 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

so is he a horrible bust or not? I couldn't really make heads or tails out of the last 70 pages over-analyzing one start. 

Here's a quick synopsis in one meme:

spacer.png

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That would have also worked with The Rock.  "IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT HE WAS WORKING ON!"

Since he won't start again until after the All-Star break, this could be a long and fairly useless thread for roughly a week or so more.

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