Trench Mob

Jimmy Butler 2019-2020 Outlook

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6 hours ago, apatas said:

Late first round is very open this year - 10-12 candidates for 5-6 places. Still I think that Butler is among them one of the weakest options. Better options are: PG13, Lillard, Kemba, Holiday, Beal, Embiid, LeBron, Kawhi (depends on number of games), maybe Vucevic and Kyrie also (this is close).

 

I think so too...its close with Lebron b/c of the FT% especially in roto, I might go Jimmy (elite) over Lebron (punt).  H2H different story.  

 

What don't you like about Butler?  Is it the very low 3's relative to everyone else at that range?  If you take one of those players you might end up with like 200 more 3's or something...that's what turns me off personally, so maybe he's a good pick in round 2 if you have a higher volume 3 point shooter in round 1...say Lillard or Steph, then Butler makes up for his steals, etc and keeps FT and points elite.  I haven't thought about it much but now I really like Butler as a 2nd round pick to pair with Steph or Dame.  As much as Vooch would be a good pairing too I would have to lean Butler at this time. 

 

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21 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

What don't you like about Butler?

Nothing else but I only listed who are better IMO.

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OK, I don't like arrogant players. LeBron and Jordan are not arrogant they are really the greatest. Butler is not the greatest but he thinks he is.Of course you can't let your fantasy game to affect by these things, but yes, I don't like him as a person. Nothing to do with his basketball skills.

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Do you guys think his body holds up as the 1st option / going 2 way? How many games do u see him playin?

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7 minutes ago, greatestmetfan said:

22/6/6 w/ 1.5 steals and a three a game on 46% shooting

I’m not a big fan but I think he will be a touch better than that now that he’s back to being the leader on a team.  Maybe 25/6/6 with 1.5 steals and 1.5+ threes.  One of the top 5 for  FT impact too.  

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I don't think butler will get enough wins or be durable enough to not be rested on and off during fantasy playoffs. Orlando and Chicago likely will lock up the top 8 by a decent margin in my opinion and think washington will be better than Miami anyway. Butler is a great fantasy asset but hes not a winner, so I doubt we see a late season playoff push. Just seems like one of those guys you end up getting a 2 game week out of. He could be a great 2nd round pick if you get him there but I'd still grab Kawhi kyrie Beal kemba embiid before him without hesitation. Wouldn't take him 1st round anywhere except ftm leagues.

On the other hand, butler is about as stubborn and entitled as it gets so if Miami decides they want to shut him down or limit him, he might have a temper tantrum, make trade threats etc and cry his way back to the court. I think hes made it clear that if he doesn't get what he wants, he's going to poopy his diaper. I'd draft him around 15 to 20. 

Butler is recruiting beal to join him in Miami, but that's not really up to him or beal so it sounds like irrelevant news. 

41% to 43 fg% (yes piss poor) elite ft (top 3), 25 6 5 1.7 .4 and 2.8 to. He won't have any help and will be chucking up shots like George Castanza.

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16 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

I don't think butler will get enough wins or be durable enough to not be rested on and off during fantasy playoffs. Orlando and Chicago likely will lock up the top 8 by a decent margin in my opinion and think washington will be better than Miami anyway. Butler is a great fantasy asset but hes not a winner, so I doubt we see a late season playoff push. Just seems like one of those guys you end up getting a 2 game week out of. He could be a great 2nd round pick if you get him there but I'd still grab Kawhi kyrie Beal kemba embiid before him without hesitation. Wouldn't take him 1st round anywhere except ftm leagues.

On the other hand, butler is about as stubborn and entitled as it gets so if Miami decides they want to shut him down or limit him, he might have a temper tantrum, make trade threats etc and cry his way back to the court. I think hes made it clear that if he doesn't get what he wants, he's going to poopy his diaper. I'd draft him around 15 to 20. 

Butler is recruiting beal to join him in Miami, but that's not really up to him or beal so it sounds like irrelevant news. 

41% to 43 fg% (yes piss poor) elite ft (top 3), 25 6 5 1.7 .4 and 2.8 to. He won't have any help and will be chucking up shots like George Castanza.

 

For one Butler is a career 45% shooter who has alternated between 46% and 47% for the past four years. Why would he shoot worse now? Because he is on Miami? A team you think is worse than the Wizards for reasons not based in reality.

Butler if he stays healthy will play like a first round pick. The only thing he lacks is more threes. His attitude stinks, but he does work very hard on his game so maybe he will improve his three ball this year.

Two, I think you are just severely underrating Miami if you think Butler has no help or they don’t have a shot at the playoffs. They were very close last year. They basically are bringing back last year’s team with the addition of Butler over Richardson, and the loss of Whiteside which is an addition by subtraction.

Bam has all the makings of a break out season and Winslow has another year to show more improvement. Waiters lost weight and is motivated. And Dragic should be healthy now after being injured last year. How on earth is that team worse than the Wizards?

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15 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

For one Butler is a career 45% shooter who has alternated between 46% and 47% for the past four years.

Sorry. I had that wrong. 46% and 47% the past two years, not four.

He has not shot under 45% since he broke out so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to think he will shoot that poorly this year. He is not a dumb shooter.

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41 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

For one Butler is a career 45% shooter who has alternated between 46% and 47% for the past four years. Why would he shoot worse now? Because he is on Miami? A team you think is worse than the Wizards for reasons not based in reality.

Butler if he stays healthy will play like a first round pick. The only thing he lacks is more threes. His attitude stinks, but he does work very hard on his game so maybe he will improve his three ball this year.

Two, I think you are just severely underrating Miami if you think Butler has no help or they don’t have a shot at the playoffs. They were very close last year. They basically are bringing back last year’s team with the addition of Butler over Richardson, and the loss of Whiteside which is an addition by subtraction.

Bam has all the makings of a break out season and Winslow has another year to show more improvement. Waiters lost weight and is motivated. And Dragic should be healthy now after being injured last year. How on earth is that team worse than the Wizards?

Butler being the #1 option will almost guarantee a drop in fg%. A big one because he just isn't that good on offense in real life. Bam Dragic and Winslow??? Really??? Barely not making the east playoffs last year is horrible by the way. He won't have any choice but to take bad shots this year or pass to players less likely to make their shots than previous years. He had a stacked philly team last year, KAT and Wiggins before that as priority options (deserving or not) and in his Chicago days, he just simply looked like a more athletic motivated player. He's just a frustrated baby now. He had a still very good Pau Gasol as help (17 ppg) and a still solid luol deng (15 ppg). Bam is not 2015 gasol and is still unproven lol, Winslow isn't deng and the nba today is more revolved around 3 pt shooting and spacing, which will hurt butlers game more today vs back then. So if hes on a worse team and is taking more 3s how can he duplicate Chicago numbers in fg%? 

He does not fit modern nba like he did in the Chicago days where the mid range jumper was king and the 3 ball and spacing wasn't as relevant. 2019 2020 Jimmy will be great but no way his fg% in 2020 doesn't dip. Let's be real here... if he shot 46.1% last year with Embiid Harris and Simmons, how the hell will he match his 46%? And how can it not go down? It makes absolutely no sense that he doesn't have a bad year in fg%. 

As for wiz being better, that's like 60 40 to me, not by a lot. My main reasoning is that Beal will play much better than last year and have more wins having a reliable outlook on what to expect and not adjust during the season like he did when wall went down. You can't judge a team that played with an audible for a prior season that doesn't need to call an audible for the upcoming season. Not saying wizards are good, I'm saying they're better than Miami. 

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8 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

Butler being the #1 option will almost guarantee a drop in fg%. A big one because he just isn't that good on offense in real life. Bam Dragic and Winslow??? Really??? Barely not making the east playoffs last year is horrible by the way. He won't have any choice but to take bad shots this year or pass to players less likely to make their shots than previous years. He had a stacked philly team last year, KAT and Wiggins before that as priority options (deserving or not) and in his Chicago days, he just simply looked like a more athletic motivated player. He's just a frustrated baby now. He had a still very good Pau Gasol as help (17 ppg) and a still solid luol deng (15 ppg). Bam is not 2015 gasol and is still unproven lol, Winslow isn't deng and the nba today is more revolved around 3 pt shooting and spacing, which will hurt butlers game more today vs back then. So if hes on a worse team and is taking more 3s how can he duplicate Chicago numbers in fg%? 

He does not fit modern nba like he did in the Chicago days where the mid range jumper was king and the 3 ball and spacing wasn't as relevant. 2019 2020 Jimmy will be great but no way his fg% in 2020 doesn't dip. Let's be real here... if he shot 46.1% last year with Embiid Harris and Simmons, how the hell will he match his 46%? And how can it not go down? It makes absolutely no sense that he doesn't have a bad year in fg%. 

As for wiz being better, that's like 60 40 to me, not by a lot. My main reasoning is that Beal will play much better than last year and have more wins having a reliable outlook on what to expect and not adjust during the season like he did when wall went down. You can't judge a team that played with an audible for a prior season that doesn't need to call an audible for the upcoming season. Not saying wizards are good, I'm saying they're better than Miami. 

Terrible argument. Beal has utter trash around him and you think Wiz are going to be better? I wish I could bet $$$ with you. Also, your logic the Butler's FG will suffer when he actually has proven scorers and smart vets around him that can pass/playmake (Dragic, Winslow, JJ, Waiters), compared to Beal (who you suggest's game will improve somehow and Jimmy's will worsen? LOL) is actually laughable. I'd be surprised if Beal could elevate more than he did last season with how bad Wizards are. 

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11 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

Butler being the #1 option will almost guarantee a drop in fg%. A big one because he just isn't that good on offense in real life. Bam Dragic and Winslow??? Really??? Barely not making the east playoffs last year is horrible by the way. 

As for wiz being better, that's like 60 40 to me, not by a lot. My main reasoning is that Beal will play much better than last year and have more wins having a reliable outlook on what to expect and not adjust during the season like he did when wall went down. You can't judge a team that played with an audible for a prior season that doesn't need to call an audible for the upcoming season. Not saying wizards are good, I'm saying they're better than Miami. 

 

Ok so first off...

Butler, Dragic, Bam, Winslow, Waiters, James Johnson, Olynyk, Derrick Jones, Myers Leonard

Beal, Bryant, Ish Smith, IT, Bertans, Troy Brown, Miles, Wagner, Mahinmi

Really compare those rosters?  You think this Wizards team is better than the Heat?  A team worse than last year.  A team led by Beal, Bryant, a bad hip no lift IT, and a bunch of backups?  You scoffed at Dragic, Winslow and Bam, but you actually think the Wizards next best players after Beal are better?  Really?  How?

Secondly, Butler is not like Westbrook for example so his style of play is not conducive to horrible percentages regardless of teammates.  The guy knows how to get buckets, and he does want to be the man, but he is not some shot jacker taking bad shots he cannot make.  But his teammates are not even garbage anyway like the Wizards so it makes no sense that Beal will play "much better than last year", but Butler cannot because he has Dragic, Bam, and Winslow, actual starting caliber players on his team.  No one is saying the Heat are a great team that would compete in the West.  But they have a chance in the East and they are surely better than the Wizards.

 

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Wizards play in the western conference though. And Otto Porter is still on Washington of course they will be better then the Heat

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1 hour ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

Ok so first off...

Butler, Dragic, Bam, Winslow, Waiters, James Johnson, Olynyk, Derrick Jones, Myers Leonard

Beal, Bryant, Ish Smith, IT, Bertans, Troy Brown, Miles, Wagner, Mahinmi

Really compare those rosters?  You think this Wizards team is better than the Heat?  A team worse than last year.  A team led by Beal, Bryant, a bad hip no lift IT, and a bunch of backups?  You scoffed at Dragic, Winslow and Bam, but you actually think the Wizards next best players after Beal are better?  Really?  How?

Secondly, Butler is not like Westbrook for example so his style of play is not conducive to horrible percentages regardless of teammates.  The guy knows how to get buckets, and he does want to be the man, but he is not some shot jacker taking bad shots he cannot make.  But his teammates are not even garbage anyway like the Wizards so it makes no sense that Beal will play "much better than last year", but Butler cannot because he has Dragic, Bam, and Winslow, actual starting caliber players on his team.  No one is saying the Heat are a great team that would compete in the West.  But they have a chance in the East and they are surely better than the Wizards.

 

 

Man honestly I love Derrick Jones and he's gonna be fire once they shed Waiters, JJ, and Dragic and play him big minutes.  

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On 8/15/2019 at 1:54 PM, taenggg said:

Wizards play in the western conference though. And Otto Porter is still on Washington of course they will be better then the Heat

 

Come on now.

Edited by rando

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On 8/15/2019 at 1:54 PM, taenggg said:

Wizards play in the western conference though. And Otto Porter is still on Washington of course they will be better then the Heat

 

54 minutes ago, rando said:

 

He was being sarcastic. Otto Porter isn't on the Wiz either. If I remember it's a reference to the Bradley Beal thread argument where a guy was posting like 8 paragraphs of Wizards rants but admitted he didn't know Otto was traded and thought the Wiz were in the West

Edited by s-kayos
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On 8/14/2019 at 4:00 PM, StifleTower2 said:

I’m not a big fan but I think he will be a touch better than that now that he’s back to being the leader on a team.  Maybe 25/6/6 with 1.5 steals and 1.5+ threes.  One of the top 5 for  FT impact too.  

Actually I am going to amend my projection: 22/5/5 with 1.9 steals, 1.2 threes, .6 blocks.  46% FG, 85 FT (on high volume), sub 2 TO.  Should be top 15 in per game.  In roto I’d rank him a little higher as he’s efficient across the board.  Not too many late first round guys get under 2 TO per game, which is quite relevant in roto, and is top 5 in FT impact.  The counting stats are solid as well, reminiscent of someone like Kemba, except trading threes for steals.  But really it’s the efficiency combined with stocks that keep him so high in roto. 

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While we're here...I think the only fringey late first round guard I'm taking over Butler is Kyrie.  For bigs I'd also go Vucevic over Butler...or perhaps both at the turn as a solid start to your team.  

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44 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

While we're here...I think the only fringey late first round guard I'm taking over Butler is Kyrie.  For bigs I'd also go Vucevic over Butler...or perhaps both at the turn as a solid start to your team.  

What would cats would u target for the next 2-3 rounds? 3s Reb and Blocks?

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1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

While we're here...I think the only fringey late first round guard I'm taking over Butler is Kyrie.  For bigs I'd also go Vucevic over Butler...or perhaps both at the turn as a solid start to your team.  

 

Which is funny because today I was listening to Josh Lloyd's podcast today on Shooting Guard tiers, and they were talking about concerns related to those late 1st and 2nd round guards. Maybe I'm higher on Butler because a lot of those guys around there will probably miss games (Kyrie too, PG, etc)

 

While I'm at it, this is how Josh Lloyd and his BBM co-host ranked the shooting guard tiers: 

Tier 1: James Harden

Tier 2: Jrue Holiday, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker 

Tier 3: Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler 

 

I find the Booker ranking over Butler a little weird. They talk about Jimmy Butler's health being a concern and it being a reason to bump him down despite his numbers, yet Devin Booker played 64, 54, & 78 games the past 3 seasons, Jimmy played 65, 59, & 76. Pretty much on par with each other, Jimmy actually played a few more games than Booker.

Devin Booker's finishes the past 3 seasons per BBM have been 42nd, 48th, & 127th.

Jimmy Butler's past 3 seasons per BBM were 15th, 11th, & 10th.

 

I dunno, maybe I'm missing something but it doesn't feel like Booker deserves to be in the same tier as Beal and a whole tier above Jimmy B. 

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5 minutes ago, s-kayos said:

 

Which is funny because today I was listening to Josh Lloyd's podcast today on Shooting Guard tiers, and they were talking about concerns related to those late 1st and 2nd round guards. Maybe I'm higher on Butler because a lot of those guys around there will probably miss games (Kyrie too, PG, etc)

 

While I'm at it, this is how Josh Lloyd and his BBM co-host ranked the shooting guard tiers: 

Tier 1: James Harden

Tier 2: Jrue Holiday, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker 

Tier 3: Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler 

 

I find the Booker ranking over Butler a little weird. They talk about Jimmy Butler's health being a concern and it being a reason to bump him down despite his numbers, yet Devin Booker played 64, 54, & 78 games the past 3 seasons, Jimmy played 65, 59, & 76. Pretty much on par with each other, Jimmy actually played a few more games than Booker.

Devin Booker's finishes the past 3 seasons per BBM have been 42nd, 48th, & 127th.

Jimmy Butler's past 3 seasons per BBM were 15th, 11th, & 10th.

 

I dunno, maybe I'm missing something but it doesn't feel like Booker deserves to be in the same tier as Beal and a whole tier above Jimmy B. 

 

Super strange, sometimes they do weird s--- like this.  Butler to me is a sure fire first rounder b/c of efficiency and steals.  

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1 hour ago, Ganandorf said:

What would cats would u target for the next 2-3 rounds? 3s Reb and Blocks?

 

Hmmm I don't know.  You're behind in 3's for sure.  Is this roto?  If it's H2H I might be more inclined to go a little more unbalanced with my next 2 picks, possibly taking playoff schedule and quality games into consideration.  I'm not sure who's there in the 3rd/4th turn, but it seems like some candidates are Siakam, LMA, Conley, Lowry, Draymond, OPJ, Covington, D'Angelo, maybe one of the bigs of Mitch/Ayton/Capela/Turner/Collins.  An efficient big would build on what you have, and pairing with a high assists/3's player...so if I could choose any of those players I might go 

 

Vuc

Butler

D-Lo

Capela 

 

I'm not sure what this shakes out to but it looks strong in all 9 categories.  

Edited by hipriest69
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43 minutes ago, s-kayos said:

 

Which is funny because today I was listening to Josh Lloyd's podcast today on Shooting Guard tiers, and they were talking about concerns related to those late 1st and 2nd round guards. Maybe I'm higher on Butler because a lot of those guys around there will probably miss games (Kyrie too, PG, etc)

 

While I'm at it, this is how Josh Lloyd and his BBM co-host ranked the shooting guard tiers: 

Tier 1: James Harden

Tier 2: Jrue Holiday, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker 

Tier 3: Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler 

 

I find the Booker ranking over Butler a little weird. They talk about Jimmy Butler's health being a concern and it being a reason to bump him down despite his numbers, yet Devin Booker played 64, 54, & 78 games the past 3 seasons, Jimmy played 65, 59, & 76. Pretty much on par with each other, Jimmy actually played a few more games than Booker.

Devin Booker's finishes the past 3 seasons per BBM have been 42nd, 48th, & 127th.

Jimmy Butler's past 3 seasons per BBM were 15th, 11th, & 10th.

 

I dunno, maybe I'm missing something but it doesn't feel like Booker deserves to be in the same tier as Beal and a whole tier above Jimmy B. 

It's super confusing because I think they use 8 cat as their default, yet they're aware that most people play 9 cat.  Often they conflate the two.  Booker finished the last month of the season as 6th in 8 cat on this line:   

33.5 2.2 4.5 7.1 0.6 0.3 .500 22.7 .848 10.2

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48 minutes ago, s-kayos said:

 

Which is funny because today I was listening to Josh Lloyd's podcast today on Shooting Guard tiers, and they were talking about concerns related to those late 1st and 2nd round guards. Maybe I'm higher on Butler because a lot of those guys around there will probably miss games (Kyrie too, PG, etc)

 

While I'm at it, this is how Josh Lloyd and his BBM co-host ranked the shooting guard tiers: 

Tier 1: James Harden

Tier 2: Jrue Holiday, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker 

Tier 3: Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler 

 

I find the Booker ranking over Butler a little weird. They talk about Jimmy Butler's health being a concern and it being a reason to bump him down despite his numbers, yet Devin Booker played 64, 54, & 78 games the past 3 seasons, Jimmy played 65, 59, & 76. Pretty much on par with each other, Jimmy actually played a few more games than Booker.

Devin Booker's finishes the past 3 seasons per BBM have been 42nd, 48th, & 127th.

Jimmy Butler's past 3 seasons per BBM were 15th, 11th, & 10th.

 

I dunno, maybe I'm missing something but it doesn't feel like Booker deserves to be in the same tier as Beal and a whole tier above Jimmy B. 

It's confusing because I think they use 8 cat as their default, yet they're aware that most people play 9 cat.  Often they conflate the two.  Booker finished the last month of the season as 6th in 8 cat on this line:  33/7/5 2.2 threes, no stocks.  50% FG/85 FT%.  4+ TO.  Booker is a first round player in 8 cat, and also has room to improve, supposedly.  It's also confusing because I'd put Jrue as a point guard, despite being eligible at both positions.  So my tiers would be: 1: Harden; 2: Beal; 3: Booker, Butler; 4: Doncic.

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