Trench Mob

Jimmy Butler 2019-2020 Outlook

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1 minute ago, StifleTower2 said:

It's confusing because I think they use 8 cat as their default, yet they're aware that most people play 9 cat.  Often they conflate the two.  Booker finished the last month of the season as 6th in 8 cat on this line:  33/7/5 2.2 threes, no stocks.  50% FG/85 FT%.  4+ TO.  Booker is a first round player in 8 cat, and also has room to improve, supposedly.  It's also confusing because I'd put Jrue as a point guard, despite being eligible at both positions.  So my tiers would be: 1: Harden; 2: Beal; 3: Booker, Butler; 4: Doncic.

Well Jrue decided last season he is a shooting guard from now on.

Josh loves Booker and never takes turnovers into account so that explains the ranks.

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5 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

It's confusing because I think they use 8 cat as their default, yet they're aware that most people play 9 cat.  Often they conflate the two. 

There's two reasons:

#1- He focuses mostly on H2H.  Roto is a secondary and less popular focus. 

It's like the inverse of the guy from Fantasy NBA Today who knows he's talking about a H2H league and still sees a team pick Drummond and Capela and is like "Hmmm, well their FT% is ******".  Like no s--- dude, but that shouldn't be the first thing you're thinking of when you see those picks in H2H, just say "Oh they're punting it" and move on.  That guy can't help but look at things from a roto perspective, Lloyd can't help to look at things from a H2H perspective.  

#2- Because if you looked at people's ranks using turnovers, you start seeing some very stupid s---, as it elevates people that play five minutes a game because "omg they're elite in one category!"  So most people will ignore and then just hope for the best/sit people on Sunday to win the cat. 

Like imagine picking people that are average (for their round) in turnovers in the 1-4 rounds.  Now you're using tools to see players' ranks and you keep getting comparative (for the round you're looking at) scrubs pushed higher than they should be.  Smart fantasy bball owners can be like "Wait, this guy is showing up higher in the rankings because he's playing five minutes less than the people behind him, so he's getting less turnovers, so it's pushing him up."  But those aren't the people that need to be told what the shooting guard tiers are, so...

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1 hour ago, Tom Chambers said:

There's two reasons:

#1- He focuses mostly on H2H.  Roto is a secondary and less popular focus. 

It's like the inverse of the guy from Fantasy NBA Today who knows he's talking about a H2H league and still sees a team pick Drummond and Capela and is like "Hmmm, well their FT% is ******".  Like no s--- dude, but that shouldn't be the first thing you're thinking of when you see those picks in H2H, just say "Oh they're punting it" and move on.  That guy can't help but look at things from a roto perspective, Lloyd can't help to look at things from a H2H perspective.  

#2- Because if you looked at people's ranks using turnovers, you start seeing some very stupid s---, as it elevates people that play five minutes a game because "omg they're elite in one category!"  So most people will ignore and then just hope for the best/sit people on Sunday to win the cat. 

Like imagine picking people that are average (for their round) in turnovers in the 1-4 rounds.  Now you're using tools to see players' ranks and you keep getting comparative (for the round you're looking at) scrubs pushed higher than they should be.  Smart fantasy bball owners can be like "Wait, this guy is showing up higher in the rankings because he's playing five minutes less than the people behind him, so he's getting less turnovers, so it's pushing him up."  But those aren't the people that need to be told what the shooting guard tiers are, so...

 

Pretty much nailed it

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11 hours ago, Tom Chambers said:

#2- Because if you looked at people's ranks using turnovers, you start seeing some very stupid s---, as it elevates people that play five minutes a game because "omg they're elite in one category!"  So most people will ignore and then just hope for the best/sit people on Sunday to win the cat. 

 

That's a fine rule of thumb, but be careful with diving headlong into that strategy. My best nine-cat roto teams are littered with guys who are efficient, meaning that among other things, they tend to commit fewer TOs per 3 6 min than other players (and also %s are usually strong). Also, if you start with efficiency at the draft, then it's easier to add a stat compiler who is bad with TOs (like Russ, Harden, Giannis, Simmons) without it taking you down in TOs. Most managers don't draft well for TOs and percentages, so if you start with an edge there, it's usually easier to play the win-win trading game with managers who have the sexy popcorn stats.

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I got that, I'm just saying that when you're looking at player ranks outside the top 80, little differences and variations in stats can leap players up past others. 

With that in mind, it's a common new owner mistake to not realize that for some guys, their rank is being inflated by being "elite" in that one category compared to someone else. 

I don't want to point out any two players in particular, partially cause I think that could result in a convo about those players which would be off topic, but more causeI'm on my phone and lazy. But I'm sure you can think of a pair where one has a comparable rank to another but on your team, the guy that gets double the turnovers (1 to 0.5) is obviously much better in all the other cats. 

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5 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

I got that, I'm just saying that when you're looking at player ranks outside the top 80, little differences and variations in stats can leap players up past others. 

With that in mind, it's a common new owner mistake to not realize that for some guys, their rank is being inflated by being "elite" in that one category compared to someone else. 

I don't want to point out any two players in particular, partially cause I think that could result in a convo about those players which would be off topic, but more causeI'm on my phone and lazy. But I'm sure you can think of a pair where one has a comparable rank to another but on your team, the guy that gets double the turnovers (1 to 0.5) is obviously much better in all the other cats. 

MitchRob is a good example.  He falls from 47th to 82nd in 8 cat.  Even if you look at that stretch where he was top 15 in 9 cat, it was just around 40th with TO turned off.  I'd value him in the 4th round because of that and I don't entirely trust the two month sample size.  

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2 hours ago, Tom Chambers said:

it's a common new owner mistake to not realize that for some guys, their rank is being inflated by being "elite" in that one category compared to someone else. 

 

A good point. I find that a lot of seasoned managers overcorrect for this. They see the unsexy name whose value increases from low TOs and never think to draft him. This is how I end up averaging a few more points in TOs than my league mates. In my main hoops league, I've been getting 16-20 pts from the two % categories for years just by taking efficient players when all else is basically equal. Those players slip in drafts. So I'm sort of exploiting the opposite of the issue you're so effectively illustrating, and we can go on eating our league chum for dinner unless and until they ever figure out their mistakes.

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The thing about players with low turnovers is that they're usually tied to garbage assists and pretty bad points. I'd rather go for 2 stats vs 1. Its stupid to think having harden lebron giannis westbrook doncic booker etc means you're punting TO because everyone who is not punting assists has to make up for a couple bad TO players too. It's all about the semi punt.

You can have harden and Drummond on the same team and not punt anything for example. Throw in lou William's late in the draft or grab DeRozan and it offsets it. Too many people get set on punting cats because of one player. Semi punts and pairing go a long way. 

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On 9/11/2019 at 5:50 PM, StifleTower2 said:

[...]  Booker is a first round player in 8 cat, and also has room to improve, supposedly. [...]

 

On 9/11/2019 at 11:01 PM, Tom Chambers said:

There's two reasons:

#1- He focuses mostly on H2H.  Roto is a secondary and less popular focus. [...]

#2- Because if you looked at people's ranks using turnovers, you start seeing some very stupid s---, as it elevates people that play five minutes a game because "omg they're elite in one category!"  So most people will ignore and then just hope for the best/sit people on Sunday to win the cat. 

 

 

And that's all fair, I get they put Booker over Butler because they ignore turnovers, but even given that I don't see how Booker is a whole tier above Butler.

 

Assists: They're pretty much on par with each other in assists - they both should be around 5 or more. Booker was at 4.7 the season before last, with Rubio coming he should have more than that but still less than last season

FG%: Historically Jimmy kills Booker here. Jimmy's 46%, 47%, 45% versus Booker's 47%, 43%, 42%

Scoring: Booker will be better but I don't think he'll be too much better - 25-26ppg again wouldn't be surprising but with Rubio setting Ayton up Booker should have slightly less usage than last season. Jimmy was 22ppg on a team with Towns and 24ppg as the main guy in CHI - he should be at around 24 ppg again. 

Steals: Obviously Jimmy and there's no discussion.

Blocks: See above. At 0.6 last year Jimmy doesn't even need a whole 2 games to get you one. Booker at 0.2 last year you need 5 games to get one. 

FT%: They're both ~85% and above, but Booker is an anchor here based on attempts, so he's ahead here.

3s: Obviously Booker and there's no discussion.

Rebounding: Jimmy is historically a whole rebound and some change better, so he wins here. Even Booker's career high is no match for any of Jimmy's recent seasons.

 

So Booker does what he does well, but I don't see how 3s and slightly better scoring gets him a whole tier above Jimmy when Butler kills him in steals, blocks, rebounding, and is comparable in most other areas. Even punting TOs using BBM Booker finishes at 20 and Jimmy at 22. I'm okay with Booker but just not seeing why he's getting that much more love honestly

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3 hours ago, s-kayos said:

 

 

 

And that's all fair, I get they put Booker over Butler because they ignore turnovers, but even given that I don't see how Booker is a whole tier above Butler.

 

Assists: They're pretty much on par with each other in assists - they both should be around 5 or more. Booker was at 4.7 the season before last, with Rubio coming he should have more than that but still less than last season

FG%: Historically Jimmy kills Booker here. Jimmy's 46%, 47%, 45% versus Booker's 47%, 43%, 42%

Scoring: Booker will be better but I don't think he'll be too much better - 25-26ppg again wouldn't be surprising but with Rubio setting Ayton up Booker should have slightly less usage than last season. Jimmy was 22ppg on a team with Towns and 24ppg as the main guy in CHI - he should be at around 24 ppg again. 

Steals: Obviously Jimmy and there's no discussion.

Blocks: See above. At 0.6 last year Jimmy doesn't even need a whole 2 games to get you one. Booker at 0.2 last year you need 5 games to get one. 

FT%: They're both ~85% and above, but Booker is an anchor here based on attempts, so he's ahead here.

3s: Obviously Booker and there's no discussion.

Rebounding: Jimmy is historically a whole rebound and some change better, so he wins here. Even Booker's career high is no match for any of Jimmy's recent seasons.

 

So Booker does what he does well, but I don't see how 3s and slightly better scoring gets him a whole tier above Jimmy when Butler kills him in steals, blocks, rebounding, and is comparable in most other areas. Even punting TOs using BBM Booker finishes at 20 and Jimmy at 22. I'm okay with Booker but just not seeing why he's getting that much more love honestly

SG tiers is a completely arbitrary discussion that holds about as much meaning to me as "how many hobbits does it take to make one elf?"  I'm just explaining what might be his reasoning but I think the distinction is useless.  

 

That said, I wouldn't personally put Booker ahead of Butler.  Booker has three things wrong with his fantasy outlook: his abnormally high TO, lack of stocks, and poor situation in H2H.  Even if you can fade his high TO, whether that be by punting, or playing 8 cat, one still can't deny his poor defensive output.  Even that is tolerable as I think he profiles similarly to someone like Lillard. The real problem is that he's played 64 and 54 games the past two seasons and there's no reason to believe he will play more.  Encouragingly he absolutely went off during the last two months of the season, because the Suns were resting players other than him.  

 

However, I also think you're cherry picking data by comparing their historical numbers.  I know why you're doing it, you think Butler's mediocre (by his standards) last season is an outlier, and would prefer looking at when he had a more dominant role.  But Booker is 22 years old and still has untold upside.  You can't look at his numbers from two years ago to inform his future.  Contrary to certain players, whom  people say they have upside when they're already nearing their ceiling, Booker can easily add stocks and assists to his game, if not more points.  He could be a 30/7/6 player with 3 threes and one steal.  Unlike Young or Doncic, he's already an efficient shooter.  Butler's FG and FT numbers are similar, but Booker could be a top 3 FT% producer based on volume, as you said.  There aren't too many players who can even threaten going something like 7/8 consistently.

 

I'd still prefer Butler because I'm not keen on punting TO in 9 cat roto.  And in H2H I trust Butler to be playing during the fantasy playoffs more than I trust Booker.  But I can understand why Gallagher who hypes players under 25 as it were literally his job, and Lloyd who hates turnovers, would prefer Booker.  

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32 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

 

However, I also think you're cherry picking data by comparing their historical numbers.  I know why you're doing it, you think Butler's mediocre (by his standards) last season is an outlier, and would prefer looking at when he had a more dominant role.  But Booker is 22 years old and still has untold upside.  You can't look at his numbers from two years ago to inform his future.  Contrary to certain players, whom  people say they have upside when they're already nearing their ceiling, Booker can easily add stocks and assists to his game, if not more points.  He could be a 30/7/6 player with 3 threes and one steal.  Unlike Young or Doncic, he's already an efficient shooter.  Butler's FG and FT numbers are similar, but Booker could be a top 3 FT% producer based on volume, as you said.  There aren't too many players who can even threaten going something like 7/8 consistently.

 

I'd still prefer Butler because I'm not keen on punting TO in 9 cat roto.  And in H2H I trust Butler to be playing during the fantasy playoffs more than I trust Booker.  But I can understand why Gallagher who hypes players under 25 as it were literally his job, and Lloyd who hates turnovers, would prefer Booker.  

 

More than fair explanation. I think cherry picking is a tiny bit strong when I'm using recent data and not picking old stuff from more than 4 seasons ago, but I really think Booker's fantasy outlook got slightly worse (Ayton is an offensive dynamo who will improve and demand more touches, Rubio will take the ball out of his hands way more than Tyler Johnson did), and Butler's fantasy outlook got volumes better on Miami now that he's back to being a 1st option. I also don't see Booker putting up Harden stats at 23 years old - even when Harden was 23 - 24 years old he was only scoring 25-26ppg.. so to be honest I don't see Book going for 30ppg next season, but if he does I'll be happy to say I'm wrong (I really will be happy since I own him in dynasty). 

The steals and rebounding though I see as staying the same even if he does increase other stuff, he's just not that guy. His physical profile and defensive instincts have never been there in that way, even in college his per-40 steals were 0.8.

And if that's the case it's gonna be tough for him to be elite in 9-cat. Even guys like Klay and Beal, who I never thought would be T15, only got there because of not only the 3s, scoring, and efficiency, but also the stocks. Klay has been a good defender for a long time and Beal has always had some steals. Booker doesn't look like he'll get there anytime soon.

 

Now with that said, you also mentioned that Book's FT volume and that there aren't too many who can threaten his attempts per night - but one of those guys is actually Jimmy Butler, with Booker's career high 7.1 per game last year still less than Butler's as recently as in Minny, where he averaged 7.2 per game and 8.9 per game the season before in CHI.

 

What I REALLY think is cherry picking is not only ignoring his TOs, but also how in the SG tier discussion they ignored Booker's deficiencies in defensive stats, saying you could make it up with later low-end players to support their argument that he's a 2nd round player higher than Butler. If we're just choosing to ignore 2 stats right off the bat when talking about a player we can boost a bunch of mid-rounders to 2nd round value if we chose to. You could argue the same in favor of Jimmy for his comparatively low 3s given how easy it is to draft or stream 3pters (Joe Harris, Danny Green, Tarean Prince, etc.)

 

I dunno. I don't disagree with you because we still end on the same point, but I just had to say more on the topic. I get their opinions but I don't feel that they're well supported by the data.

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2 minutes ago, s-kayos said:

 

More than fair explanation. I think cherry picking is a tiny bit strong when I'm using recent data and not picking old stuff from more than 4 seasons ago, but I really think Booker's fantasy outlook got slightly worse (Ayton is an offensive dynamo who will improve and demand more touches, Rubio will take the ball out of his hands way more than Tyler Johnson did), and Butler's fantasy outlook got volumes better on Miami now that he's back to being a 1st option. I also don't see Booker putting up Harden stats at 23 years old - even when Harden was 23 - 24 years old he was only scoring 25-26ppg.. so to be honest I don't see Book going for 30ppg next season, but if he does I'll be happy to say I'm wrong (I really will be happy since I own him in dynasty). 

The steals and rebounding though I see as staying the same even if he does increase other stuff, he's just not that guy. His physical profile and defensive instincts have never been there in that way, even in college his per-40 steals were 0.8.

And if that's the case it's gonna be tough for him to be elite in 9-cat. Even guys like Klay and Beal, who I never thought would be T15, only got there because of not only the 3s, scoring, and efficiency, but also the stocks. Klay has been a good defender for a long time and Beal has always had some steals. Booker doesn't look like he'll get there anytime soon.

 

Now with that said, you also mentioned that Book's FT volume and that there aren't too many who can threaten his attempts per night - but one of those guys is actually Jimmy Butler, with Booker's career high 7.1 per game last year still less than Butler's as recently as in Minny, where he averaged 7.2 per game and 8.9 per game the season before in CHI.

 

What I REALLY think is cherry picking is not only ignoring his TOs, but also how in the SG tier discussion they ignored Booker's deficiencies in defensive stats, saying you could make it up with later low-end players to support their argument that he's a 2nd round player higher than Butler. If we're just choosing to ignore 2 stats right off the bat when talking about a player we can boost a bunch of mid-rounders to 2nd round value if we chose to. You could argue the same in favor of Jimmy for his comparatively low 3s given how easy it is to draft or stream 3pters (Joe Harris, Danny Green, Tarean Prince, etc.)

 

I dunno. I don't disagree with you because we still end on the same point, but I just had to say more on the topic. I get their opinions but I don't feel that they're well supported by the data.

Almost every does this: confirmation bias.  Guys like Jokic and Booker, in particular come to mind.  People see a nice collection of counting stats, then see they're efficient, and go...welp good enough!  One can pry into the details, such as Jokic probably being the lowest points/threes contributor in the first round and low blocks/high To for center.  Or Booker's pathetic stocks, high TO, and low games played.  But...but...his popcorn stats are awesome.  No player is perfect, it really just depends on what you're willing to compromise on, and how intelligently you can craft a team.  Particularly in H2H, is as much or more about fit as it is about abstract value.  And punting TO is a hill most people are willing to die in.  FWIW I picked Booker at 23rd in an early draft league, but that's the earliest I'd ever consider drafting him.  I'm far from a Booker fan.     

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As a first-time Jimmy owner I have a question. Jimmy Butler or Bradley Beal? 

 

So basically, I have the option to trade JB for BB, but I’m not sure if I should do it. JB fits my team better (I need his steals and ft%/volume), but I could also really use Beal’s higher points, and I’m worried about Jimmy’s health issues. While Beal is consistently ranked above Jimmy, I feel like him signing this new deal lowers his value because it reduces his incentive to play for an all-nba spot/more of an incentive to rest and avoid injuries.

 

But a buddy of mine who has owned Jimmy many times keeps telling me that he’s sketch and that I should exchange him for Beal. Thoughts??

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45 minutes ago, jkgb7 said:

As a first-time Jimmy owner I have a question. Jimmy Butler or Bradley Beal? 

 

So basically, I have the option to trade JB for BB, but I’m not sure if I should do it. JB fits my team better (I need his steals and ft%/volume), but I could also really use Beal’s higher points, and I’m worried about Jimmy’s health issues. While Beal is consistently ranked above Jimmy, I feel like him signing this new deal lowers his value because it reduces his incentive to play for an all-nba spot/more of an incentive to rest and avoid injuries.

 

But a buddy of mine who has owned Jimmy many times keeps telling me that he’s sketch and that I should exchange him for Beal. Thoughts??

I realize I posted this on the wrong thread. My bad 😬

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Not playing tonight due personal reasons. Questionable for friday.

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11 minutes ago, montanski said:

Not playing tonight due personal reasons. Questionable for friday.

 

And here we go!  Fantasy season starting off right.

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Out for personal reasons. No injury announced

 

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5 minutes ago, StickerHappy said:

Out for personal reasons. No injury announced

 

You bout 30mins late champ.

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Baby related day some reports.

 

great timing....

 

atleast it’s week 1

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3 minutes ago, Kamura said:

Baby related day some reports.

 

great timing....

 

atleast it’s week 1

He woke up at 3:30am to workout and now is too tired for the actual game

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... what in the f--- man

Who the hell misses opening night when they aren’t injured?

 

 

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