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yanki01

your preferred draft position?

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8 team...1/2 ppr...snake

 

I have first choice on where i want to be. I'm thinking the sweet spot is 3rd or 4th (for either CMC or Kamara). I know it's an 8 team so each team should be good with plenty of solid picks.

 

what spot would you choose? 

 

thanks.

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8 Teamer doesn't really matter.  But yeah 3 or 4 sounds right.  On a side note in my experience the most important thing in a 8 team league is to get a top TE.  Not saying first round by any means but maybe even second for Kelce or third with Ertz.  Everybody is gonna have a pretty stacked team at all positions besides TE.

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yeah i'm expecting to grab either CMC or Kamara in the 1st. possibly Thomas, Julio, OBJ or JuJu in the 2nd and hopefully Kelce, Kittle or Ertz is still there in the 3rd. Even though i'd like to wait on TE for the 4th or so but I've never been blessed in the TE spot during drafting.

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I would take the 4th spot as I would be happy to grab any of Saquon, Zeke, Kamara or CMC / DJ (depending on your preference) and have an earlier pick in the 2nd. 

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24 minutes ago, GreatScott! said:

I would take the 4th spot as I would be happy to grab any of Saquon, Zeke, Kamara or CMC / DJ (depending on your preference) and have an earlier pick in the 2nd. 

This is my answer too

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#1 overall and draft Barkley 

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17 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

#1 overall and draft Barkley 

 

X2

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I agree with rush,8 teams tho, don't really matter, just draft for positionscarcity at first, take ur top rbs, take an elite te, there will be plenty of talent to go around in the later part of the draft

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Posted (edited)

A good reason to do mock drafts is to find out what spot you prefer. I find that I like getting the 7th round (my two leagues are 10-team), and getting Davante Adams with either a running back on the turn (depending on who's left), and then another wideout (depending on who's left).

While I'd love Saquon, I find it difficult getting two back-to-back picks and then all that waiting time in between. I like 3rd pick though; get McCaffrey.

7.jpeg

Edited by dropshadows

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I have had most of my success drafting with the last pick.  Something about being able to get back to back picks and building from there.  

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I got my choice of pick in a 10 team 0.5 PPR and I went with pick 3. It all depends on how you value your guys. For me, I'm looking for high floor in round 1, and Kamara (while an elite option) does seem like he has the least sustainable path to production out of the Kamara/Barkley/CMC/Zeke quartet. With the other three, they're 1 a, b and c to me, hence my decision.

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Do some mocks.

 

Anywhere from 7-10 for me. RB is deep this year. WR isn't. Grabbing two of Adams/Thomas/Hopkins/OBJ with your first two picks, then two of A. Jones/K. Johnson/Mack/Henry/Jacobs/Lindsay in the 3rd and 4th is a great start. 

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On 7/2/2019 at 4:07 PM, GreatScott! said:

I would take the 4th spot as I would be happy to grab any of Saquon, Zeke, Kamara or CMC / DJ (depending on your preference) and have an earlier pick in the 2nd. 

 

This is the answer right here. Get the 4th overall, and you'll have the 5th pick in the even rounds. Gets you a stud RB and keeps you in the middle of each round.

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Picking at the back end of a 10-team isn't horrible. I agree with you smetana picking at the turn and getting two straight picks isn't so bad,

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19 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

This is the answer right here. Get the 4th overall, and you'll have the 5th pick in the even rounds. Gets you a stud RB and keeps you in the middle of each round.

 

The answer is 1. Always is. Get 3 top 17 players.

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

The answer is 1. Always is. Get 3 top 17 players.

 

Eh...or with the 4th get 2 top 13 players and 3 top 20 players. The difference in 3 top 17 and 3 top 20 is pretty negligible. 

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Eh...or with the 4th get 2 top 13 players and 3 top 20 players. The difference in 3 top 17 and 3 top 20 is pretty negligible. 

 

Statistically speaking, 1 is the best spot. Just a fact. Given the choice I would always choose 1. 

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Statistically speaking, 1 is the best spot. Just a fact. Given the choice I would always choose 1. 

Unless you consider the top-N equally good, in which case you should start at pick N.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Unless you consider the top-N equally good, in which case you should start at pick N.

 

No. You are only thinking of the first two rounds. 

Edited by dmb3684

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On 7/13/2019 at 12:59 PM, dmb3684 said:

 

Statistically speaking, 1 is the best spot. Just a fact. Given the choice I would always choose 1. 

I don’t know if that is true anymore. Back in the day when you had guys like LT at the 1.01 sure. But I don’t think there is a huge difference at all between having Barkley, Kamara or Zeke. So I don’t see the statistical advantage of picking one of them first and instead just waiting to see which one falls to you.  I guess I’d ask where the statistics are to back up the claim that having the number 1 spot is the best spot. 

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On a side note guys, what's your best advice for drafting at the turn. I typically go with a best available approach, but sometimes in a 10-team say, it's good to lock up a RB, WR early, otherwise you'll be left with average players in the third, fourth round at one of those positions. Kelce is a beast, but taking him at pick 11 leaves you chasing the draft a bit. Just a thought.

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11 hours ago, GreatScott! said:

I don’t know if that is true anymore. Back in the day when you had guys like LT at the 1.01 sure. But I don’t think there is a huge difference at all between having Barkley, Kamara or Zeke. So I don’t see the statistical advantage of picking one of them first and instead just waiting to see which one falls to you.  I guess I’d ask where the statistics are to back up the claim that having the number 1 spot is the best spot. 

 

There is a good article from a few years back I will try to track down later. For now, this crazy reddit person did a bunch of work.

https://amp.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/6pz7ix/which_draft_aid_do_i_choose_i_put_them_all_to_the/

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

There is a good article from a few years back I will try to track down later. For now, this crazy reddit person did a bunch of work.

https://amp.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/6pz7ix/which_draft_aid_do_i_choose_i_put_them_all_to_the/

I didn’t see anything here saying drafting from the number 1 spot was better than anywhere else?

Per fantasy football calculators here are the players who were the ADP number 1 over the last 5 year. 

2018 - Todd Gurley. You were probably very happy. Until playoff time. You may have been happier drafting 7 last year as you could have had Saquon on average and then a better 2nd round pick. 

2017 - David Johnson. That didn’t work out of course. 

2016 - Antonio Brown. A beast of course, but you could have had David Johnson at the 5 spot who beasties hat year.

2015 - Adrian Peterson - Great year and you were again happy. 

2014 - LeSean McCoy - great year and you were happy

The years 2014 and 2015 had a lot of busts in the first round it seems. The last 3 years though it seems that if you would have picked after number 1 statistically you would have been happier with the outcome. That’s what I’m seeing. Times appear to have changed. There doesn’t seem to be just one guy who will be the dominate number 1 guy. 

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3 hours ago, GreatScott! said:

I didn’t see anything here saying drafting from the number 1 spot was better than anywhere else?

 

 

Look harder?

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The article talks about this particular guy’s website being number one compared to others.  Nothing about picking from the one spot. He mentions the best spot is 1 but offers nothing to back it up and says it’s only a slight gradual decline to the 6 spot which backs up our claims about drafting from the 4 spot to get a better 2nd round pick if it’s only gradual.  So he’s not really backing up your claim. It’s also again one guy tooting his one draft calculator, so, you know. 😜

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