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yanki01

your preferred draft position?

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Sleeper just posted the highest winning percentage by pick. I can’t seem to find what period this was studied over or over what platforms so take it for what it’s worth. Per their research they say the best picks in this order: 1, 5, 6, 7, 11, 10, 9, 12, 4, 8, 3 and then 2. I found that very interesting. 

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1 minute ago, GreatScott! said:

Sleeper just posted the highest winning percentage by pick. I can’t seem to find what period this was studied over or over what platforms so take it for what it’s worth. Per their research they say the best picks in this order: 1, 5, 6, 7, 11, 10, 9, 12, 4, 8, 3 and then 2. I found that very interesting. 

 

I've seen these rankings and they seem to be all over the place.  Logically, there shouldn't be a huge difference between 1 and 2.  My guess is that the year to year changes in players greatly have significant impact.   

 

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50 minutes ago, GreatScott! said:

Sleeper just posted the highest winning percentage by pick. I can’t seem to find what period this was studied over or over what platforms so take it for what it’s worth. Per their research they say the best picks in this order: 1, 5, 6, 7, 11, 10, 9, 12, 4, 8, 3 and then 2. I found that very interesting. 

 

That is because 1 is always the best pick. Every study will say that.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

That is because 1 is always the best pick. Every study will say that.


This study says it's the #2 which the above study says is the worst.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/fantasy/2018/08/23/fantasy-football-best-draft-slot/1076002002/

 

This one says the 3rd although the link is dead

What about 12-team leagues?

In leagues with 12 teams, the data is similar (though still sparsely found). In a study from 2013, CBSSports surmised through number crunching that the No. 3 draft spot had the most league winners, with the fourth and fifth slots tying for second most. In this analysis, 10th 11th and 12th are the three worst spots to draft from.

Edited by K197040

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:


This study says it's the #2 which the above study says is the worst.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/fantasy/2018/08/23/fantasy-football-best-draft-slot/1076002002/

 

This one says the 3rd although the link is dead

What about 12-team leagues?

In leagues with 12 teams, the data is similar (though still sparsely found). In a study from 2013, CBSSports surmised through number crunching that the No. 3 draft spot had the most league winners, with the fourth and fifth slots tying for second most. In this analysis, 10th 11th and 12th are the three worst spots to draft from.

 

The first article is just an opinion piece. 

 

The second is just taking a year of data.

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1 minute ago, dmb3684 said:

 

The first article is just an opinion piece. 

 

The second is just taking a year of data.

 

Thanks for the clarification.   I found a few more that mentioned the 4th and 6th I think.  They were "studies" but there wasn't any back up.

In any event, I don't think there is overwhelming support for the 1 pick is there?  I'd like to see the backup if available. 

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On 7/17/2019 at 2:04 PM, K197040 said:

Here's an actual piece with some backup supporting the 1.

 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/08pasquino_3rr12.php

this was written in 2008 when non-ppr was still the more popular format and the league was way more rush-heavy than it is today. Having a top 3 stud RB back then basically made you a lock for the playoffs as long as you had a half-decent supporting cast.

 

Things are much different today. Although I still prefer a top pick in dynasty formats to secure myself someone like Barkley or Hopkins to build my team around for years. 

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If there’s so much disparity between articles it probably means that it’s all bull****. FF is too random.

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11 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

If there’s so much disparity between articles it probably means that it’s all bull****. FF is too random.

 

I definitely think it depends on the year as to the best spot to pick from.   That being said, it would be difficult to apply to any one particular draft with it's own unique set of managers.  

And with any kind of keepers, I don't think it would apply at all. 

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Apologies as this is a bit off topic, but very much draft ranking/position rankings etc and a completely noob question that I've never really thought of confirming...

When people speak of a player being great value because he's "going in the 3rd round" or another player being discussed as "an RB1 or an WR3" (not on his team), I've always taken this as to be a standard rank for a 12 team league and a the player being ranked in the top 12 players in their position, respectively... is this accurate?

I've never thought of questioning it really.

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This year 3 to 4.

 

I have players I want at those slots.

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I've always been a top or bottom guy. I love picking at either 1/2 or 7/8. Being able to quickly double up on players helps me keep control of the balance of my roster.

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I like being the 10/11/12. My only snake draft does a 3rd round reversal and it makes the 12 pick my favorite by far.

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Ideal draft spot changes year-to-year. Last year I felt drafting at the top was better (Gurley and then quality RB and WR round 2 and 3, versus taking a #2 caliber WR at the round 3/4 turn).

this year from the 10 team mocks I done so far, I'm liking my results better when I'm picking at the bottom of the draff. Most recent mock, picking 10th (on the turn), I went Hopkins, Kelce, Kerryon and Jacobs. Pretty good RB combo Kerryon and Jacobs (especially with Riddick gone).

 

 

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On 7/9/2019 at 6:11 PM, chief79 said:

I have had most of my success drafting with the last pick.  Something about being able to get back to back picks and building from there.  

I like being somewhere in the last few,this season I got the first pick in a 12 man and opted for the 9th slot.

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