Pyschout

Pascal Siakam 2019-2020 Outlook

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Well, the dream of him shooting over 60% is dead for the second consecutive year.  But you have to assume he gets over 20 ppg.  His z scores last year:

WLx84Mv.png

So points go up, fg% goes down.  Rebounds and assists have to go up.  TOs, too?

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Not a big believer in this guy as the lone scorer in the Raptors lineup and I'm not certain he gets over 20ppg. I think it's extremely unlikely he maintains his FG%.

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12 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Fg% will stay the same.

You and this dude's FG% aren't a good combo, so basically whatever you say regarding it, I'll assume the opposite.

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9 hours ago, Pyschout said:

You and this dude's FG% aren't a good combo, so basically whatever you say regarding it, I'll assume the opposite.

With Kawhi out he will attempt less 3s. It was obvious to anyone who watched Raptors last year that Siakam's game was different when Kawhi wasn't playing.  With Kawhi and his midrange game the defense will collapse making it harder to drive.

With Kawhi out, Raptors where moving the ball more and drives were much easier.

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Posted (edited)

 

21 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 I am not sure about his stats without Kawhi but if I had to guess he went bananas in those games.  

 

I did some light legwork and for the most part his stats seemed similar without Kawhi (I didn't calculate it), but his rebounds and steals did seem to go up a touch, points seemed to actually go down a little and were inconsistent.  But, later in the year he had 3 of his biggest games of the year with Kawhi out -

44/10/2  w/3 steals and 4 threes  (Atl)

33/14/4  w/1 steal 2 blocks, and 2 threes (Wash)

31/5/5 w/1 steal, 2 blocks, 1 three  Orl

 

Hawks and Wash you could theoretically claim garbage defenses, but Orlando is pretty good.

 

So although there wasn't a huge overall spike in stats without Kawhi, the big outbursts towards the end and slight uptick in boards and steals leaves me pretty optimistic on his outlook barring and major changes to roster.  He and Doncic and Trae are probably the best bets to leap into the top 20 / top 10 and stay for years to come.  

Edited by hipriest69

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Anyone else expecting another big year? Obviously his fg% will take a major hit, but hes been such a hard worker. I see him going off this year again and finishing around 22, 6.5, 4, similar defensive stats but fg% will probably drop to 47 % and to's will probably go up to around 2.7.

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13 hours ago, jay_00 said:

Anyone else expecting another big year? Obviously his fg% will take a major hit, but hes been such a hard worker. I see him going off this year again and finishing around 22, 6.5, 4, similar defensive stats but fg% will probably drop to 47 % and to's will probably go up to around 2.7.

 

I think he's going to be a top 25 player this year. Similar stats to what you posted along with 1.5 3pg and I think he will get to 1 steal and 1 block per game with the intensity he plays at. 

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High on him this season: Kawhi is gone, but TOR has a lot of willing passers and he’s the only one there who I can see consistently running the break while also moving without the ball in halfcourt sets. Makes sense that Lowry, Gasol and FVV will be doing most of the facilitating while Siak and Serge will be finishing plays or kicking out.

Something like

20 (~50%+ fg, 79% ft), 8 rpg, 4 apg, with 1.2 3PM / 1 spg / 0.8 bpg

is totally realistic, as these are really slight increases from last seasons numbers: (+3 points, 1 reb, 1 ast plus 0.2 3pm / 0.2 blk)

I’m sure it’s also a no-brainer that he has a higher floor than last season (finished 41st).

Feel like it’s unlikely that he averages over a block per game, he’s not a heavy stocks guy despite having the physical tools to be great at it.

I dont view him as a building block, (since he doesn’t carry any counting stats) but he should be a great layer to add to every team.

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I must say I'm not impressed with Pascal's stats when Kawhi's off the court... but will still target heavily 3rd-4th round.

Kawhi OFF

image.png.e4621a9a775732191d63f2441a1352b9.png

Kawhi ON

image.png.e42bd590ce15ce2ec451dffacc732a85.png

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1 hour ago, Stefan said:

I must say I'm not impressed with Pascal's stats when Kawhi's off the court... but will still target heavily 3rd-4th round.

Kawhi OFF

image.png.e4621a9a775732191d63f2441a1352b9.png

Kawhi ON

image.png.e42bd590ce15ce2ec451dffacc732a85.png

Sarcasm?  If not, what  do you expect?

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I think the main problem is he was a great glue guy last except for his FG%, which really pushed him into a level above "glue guy".  But if his fg% drops as he gets more defensive attention, he still maintains his position as a great roto guy, but I'm not sure if there's the huge steps forward in H2H lots of people suggest.  Drafting him in the 20s (in H2H)?  I don't know.

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On 7/12/2019 at 3:12 AM, Gile Pile said:

Sarcasm?  If not, what  do you expect?

Sarcasm ? No, not at all... I'm just saying.

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Well, his numbers without Kawhi are either the same or slightly better. With Raptors having everyone back (except Kawhi) Pascal is going to have monster year as #1 option on offense. I won't be surprised if he finishes top 20 next year in almost every format

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20 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Pascal is going to have monster year as #1 option on offense. I won't be surprised if he finishes top 20 next year in almost every format

If he's the #1 option, his fg% is probably going to drop.  Look at his z scores from last year: if his fg% drops, what is he elite in?  That's my concern.  Last year, Siakam hung his hat (fantasy wise) on amazing fg% for the first few months and good fg% the rest, resulting in great fg% for the year overall.  As the first option, he's gonna see a lot more defensive attention, so hopefully he compensates in other categories (most likely, points, rebounds, assists) to cover for the fg% dip.  But that's to maintain his top 40ish value.  Top 20?  I just don't really see a way to it.  What numbers are you expecting from him this year?

In a way, I want you to convince me, but in another way, I feel like I'm gonna see someone take him in the late teens or early 20s and feel good, because every bad pick by a competitor helps your team out, incrementally.

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I really like him this season but 3rd round is the earliest im gonna pick him. Joker light stats wise.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Pyschout said:

If he's the #1 option, his fg% is probably going to drop.  Look at his z scores from last year: if his fg% drops, what is he elite in?  That's my concern.  Last year, Siakam hung his hat (fantasy wise) on amazing fg% for the first few months and good fg% the rest, resulting in great fg% for the year overall.  As the first option, he's gonna see a lot more defensive attention, so hopefully he compensates in other categories (most likely, points, rebounds, assists) to cover for the fg% dip.  But that's to maintain his top 40ish value.  Top 20?  I just don't really see a way to it.  What numbers are you expecting from him this year?

In a way, I want you to convince me, but in another way, I feel like I'm gonna see someone take him in the late teens or early 20s and feel good, because every bad pick by a competitor helps your team out, incrementally.

 

Everything you have based this on is predicated on Pascal being the same player he was last year. What do you see in pascal that says he has reached his ceiling? 

1. He's played hoops for 8 years total. 2 years of college (13ppg year 1, 20 year 2), and 3 years of nba where he went from out of his depth rookie, but D-league finals mvp, to key member of the original #benchmob in year 2, to MIP, robbed of an all-star, nba champ, best player in 2 of 6 finals games. He's definitely still improving as he has throughout his career. 

2. His mid-range game was raw last year. You can bet that's what he works on all summer (and this guy WORKS all summer!!!). If he gets a consistent mid-range jumper and floater he'll be near unstoppable.

3. He improved his 3pt shot, but it still can be more consistent. You can bet along with midrange he is taking 100s of threes a day this summer. 

4. He's a good passer and understands the game and play making. With Kawhi he was more a finisher, now he gets to facilitate more too. Massive Bball IQ.

Pascal can, and will be even better next year. Count it! ... I guess you guys want a stat line with that:
22ppg 7.5rbs 4.2ast 1.0stl 0.9blk 2.4TOs 50/37/79% and 1.5 threes, that's easy top 20.

I'll leave you with this (because no one even talks enough about how good a defender he is - he should have been on a all defensive team last year). Defensive Field Goal % as closest defender (min 40 games, at least 4.5 field goals against per game) in the NBA 2018/19:
1. Derrick Jones Jr - 39.1%
2. Gary Harris - 39.1%
3. Pascal Siakam - 39.7%

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-overall/?sort=D_FG_PCT&dir=-1&CF=GP*G*40:D_FGA*G*4.5

 
 
 
Edited by Jake the snake
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And I think being the star and no1 option of the team will give him a boost too. If he can avg over 1 steal he will be top 30 imo 

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The people projecting him to be top 25 value are being somewhat optimistic.  I think he's a tier below the Vuc/Stifle/Aldridge camp.  He can improve as a player and still far short of 2nd round value simply because his statistical profile doesn't really fit.  Below are the numbers @Stefan posted for his without Kawhi numbers:

  

image.png.e4621a9a775732191d63f2441a1352b9.png

 

What really recommends him over someone like Tobias Harris?  Similar points and rebounds.  Harris gets more threes.  Siakam is more efficient from the field, Harris is more efficient from the line.  Siakam gets a little more stocks, Harris fewer TO.  They seem fairly similar to me.  Harris was ranked 35th per game last season, Siakam 41st.  Sure, there's some room for improvement but players don't often completely transform the *type* of player they are within one season.  You're assuming that he gets all the extra usage but last year was a down year for Lowry, and I bet he soaks up more usage than Pascal.  Not to mention, if more of the defense is focused on him, his FG% will likely go down.  Also, if he's spending more energy on offense, that might translate into fewer stocks.  He might be a good defender but that doesn't always translate into stocks.  Yes, he can improve somewhat but within the context of being a 20/8 forward with medium stocks.  He can likely hit top 35 next year, but I don't think he gets enough stocks, or enough multi-cat production to make the leap into 2nd round value next year.

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1 hour ago, Pyschout said:

If he's the #1 option, his fg% is probably going to drop.  Look at his z scores from last year: if his fg% drops, what is he elite in?  That's my concern.  Last year, Siakam hung his hat (fantasy wise) on amazing fg% for the first few months and good fg% the rest, resulting in great fg% for the year overall.  As the first option, he's gonna see a lot more defensive attention, so hopefully he compensates in other categories (most likely, points, rebounds, assists) to cover for the fg% dip.  But that's to maintain his top 40ish value.  Top 20?  I just don't really see a way to it.  What numbers are you expecting from him this year?

In a way, I want you to convince me, but in another way, I feel like I'm gonna see someone take him in the late teens or early 20s and feel good, because every bad pick by a competitor helps your team out, incrementally.

First, thank you Stefan for numbers with and without Kawhi.

If you look at Pascal's numbers without  Kawhi (meaning Pascal is #1 option) in large sample size (1012 minutes) it is obvious, assuming he can maintain those numbers, that he will return  early  2nd round value.

Basically his numbers without Kawhi are: 20 pts, 1  3P,  3.6 ast,  8 reb, 1 st, 0.7 bl, 2 to  on  50% and 75%  

 

Who else had similar numbers?

Vucevic , small differences in  stl, bl, to, ft%.

By the way, Vuc  was ranked #11  per game  value in standard 9 cat H2H on BBM.

Don't forget 80 games that both Pascal and Vuc played.

Vuc  was ranked #5 total  value in standard 9 cat H2H on BBM, behind only Harden, George, KAT and Durant.

If that doesn't convince you I don't  know what will.  

 

I should really get back to work now...

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

The people projecting him to be top 25 value are being somewhat optimistic.  I think he's a tier below the Vuc/Stifle/Aldridge camp.  He can improve as a player and still far short of 2nd round value simply because his statistical profile doesn't really fit.  Below are the numbers @Stefan posted for his without Kawhi numbers:

  

image.png.e4621a9a775732191d63f2441a1352b9.png

 

What really recommends him over someone like Tobias Harris?  Similar points and rebounds.  Harris gets more threes.  Siakam is more efficient from the field, Harris is more efficient from the line.  Siakam gets a little more stocks, Harris fewer TO.  They seem fairly similar to me.  Harris was ranked 35th per game last season, Siakam 41st.  Sure, there's some room for improvement but players don't often completely transform the *type* of player they are within one season.  You're assuming that he gets all the extra usage but last year was a down year for Lowry, and I bet he soaks up more usage than Pascal.  Not to mention, if more of the defense is focused on him, his FG% will likely go down.  Also, if he's spending more energy on offense, that might translate into fewer stocks.  He might be a good defender but that doesn't always translate into stocks.  Yes, he can improve somewhat but within the context of being a 20/8 forward with medium stocks.  He can likely hit top 35 next year, but I don't think he gets enough stocks, or enough multi-cat production to make the leap into 2nd round value next year.

 

Harris wasn't anywhere near the same player once he got to Philly. #79 once he got there and now he has Josh Richardson and Horford there so he's not going to have as much opportunity as Siakam to get numbers. The numbers that @Stefan posted without Kawhi are easily doable and are top 25 no question. 

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1 minute ago, Gile Pile said:

First, thank you Stefan for numbers with and without Kawhi.

If you look at Pascal's numbers without  Kawhi (meaning Pascal is #1 option) in large sample size (1012 minutes) it is obvious, assuming he can maintain those numbers, that he will return  early  2nd round value.

Basically his numbers without Kawhi are: 20 pts, 1  3P,  3.6 ast,  8 reb, 1 st, 0.7 bl, 2 to  on  50% and 75%  

 

Who else had similar numbers?

Vucevic , small differences in  stl, bl, to, ft%.

By the way, Vuc  was ranked #11  per game  value in standard 9 cat H2H on BBM.

Don't forget 80 games that both Pascal and Vuc played.

Vuc  was ranked #5 total  value in standard 9 cat H2H on BBM, behind only Harden, George, KAT and Durant.

If that doesn't convince you I don't  know what will.  

 

I should really get back to work now...

 

 

 

 

Pascal: 20 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 1 three, .7 blocks 54% FG/78 FT% 2 TO

 

Vuc: 20.8 points, 12 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1 steal, 1.1 threes, 1.1 blocks 52 FG%/79 FT% 2 TO

 

Yes, a quick glance reveals that Vuc's numbers are similar to Siakam's *without Kawhi* numbers.  But the highlight portions are relevant.  Vuc gets almost 4 rebounds per game more and .4 blocks more.  The median for rebounds is about 6 and the median for blocks .6.  So Vuc is almost one entire standard deviation above Siakam in rebounds/blocks . Either you don't know how significant that is or you've deliberately convinced yourself that is insignificant.  But that is HUGE.

 

I think a better comp is Tobias Harris: 20 points, 8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2 threes, .6 steals, .5 blocks 49 FG%/87% FT  1.8 To.   The bold portion is where Harris is significantly better than Siakam and the italicized portion is where he is significantly worse.  When comparing Siakam to Vuc, Siakam is almost *strictly worse*.  Whereas, comparing him to Harris Siakam is better in some categories and Harris is better in some.  They are much closer in actual value.  

 

Now if you're talking totals instead of per game, I think Siakam might get top 25.  Harris was 20th in totals.  But that also relies on Siakam continuing to be as healthy as he was last season, which is likely.  But you never know.

 

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4 minutes ago, young_styler said:

 

Harris wasn't anywhere near the same player once he got to Philly. #79 once he got there and now he has Josh Richardson and Horford there so he's not going to have as much opportunity as Siakam to get numbers. The numbers that @Stefan posted without Kawhi are easily doable and are top 25 no question. 

Yes, but Butler's gone.  So I would assume Harris gets some usage back.  It just seems as if every year everyone falls in love with a guy.  Last year it was Jarrett Allen.  Or Jamal Murray.  Or Chriss.  This year it's MitchRob and Siakam.  I have no doubt Siakam will improve a little.  And look, if you draft him in the third round he's probably a good deal there.  I think people are a little careless with their language and rank like 40 guys as top 25 guys.  It's fairly academic but I'd bet Siakam doesn't hit top 25 in per game.  Totals, sure.  

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The thing is I think Siakam will improve again this season. Compare his numbers from 2 season ago to last years stats. If he can take another step forward it would be huge for his value. 

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