Pyschout

Pascal Siakam 2019-2020 Season Outlook

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7 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

If you look at Pascal's numbers without  Kawhi (meaning Pascal is #1 option)

Was he?  When Kawhi was out, Lowry and Siakam averaged the exact same amount of shots, and Lowry had more assists.  Which one was the #1 option?

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1 minute ago, StifleTower2 said:

Yes, but Butler's gone.  So I would assume Harris gets some usage back.  It just seems as if every year everyone falls in love with a guy.  Last year it was Jarrett Allen.  Or Jamal Murray.  Or Chriss.  This year it's MitchRob and Siakam.  I have no doubt Siakam will improve a little.  And look, if you draft him in the third round he's probably a good deal there.  I think people are a little careless with their language and rank like 40 guys as top 25 guys.  It's fairly academic but I'd bet Siakam doesn't hit top 25 in per game.  Totals, sure.  

 

None of those guys were as well rounded as Siakam and weren't the #1 option on offense like he will be this year though. I just don't see anyway that he doesn't finish top 30 or better, we'll see. And yeah I'm not crazy about Tobi because he's the 2nd option at best (Simmons will be if he can take that next step) and he's going to get fewer rebounds with Horford in town and his defense and assists are already shallow. He's a late 4th-5th round guy to me this year.

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3 minutes ago, young_styler said:

 

None of those guys were as well rounded as Siakam and weren't the #1 option on offense like he will be this year though

Can someone please directly address this:

-Said player's best category last year was FG%

-Now he'll be facing increased defensive pressure

-So his best category is probably going to be worse than last year

Like everyone is citing him being the #1 option as a bonus, but it's almost certainly going to harm his best category from the year before.  We can't just hand wave this away, can we?  "It'll be fine, he'll play better"?  That's it?

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1 minute ago, Pyschout said:

Can someone please directly address this:

-Said player's best category last year was FG%

-Now he'll be facing increased defensive pressure

-So his best category is probably going to be worse than last year

Like everyone is citing him being the #1 option as a bonus, but it's almost certainly going to harm his best category from the year before.  We can't just hand wave this away, can we?  "It'll be fine, he'll play better"?  That's it?

 

The 20 something game stat averages without Kawhi have already been posted, that's actual proof. Add in another off season of improvement and I don't see what more needs to be said? 

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1 minute ago, young_styler said:

 

None of those guys were as well rounded as Siakam and weren't the #1 option on offense like he will be this year though. I just don't see anyway that he doesn't finish top 30 or better, we'll see. And yeah I'm not crazy about Tobi because he's the 2nd option at best (Simmons will be if he can take that next step) and he's going to get fewer rebounds with Horford in town and his defense and assists are already shallow. He's a late 4th-5th round guy to me this year.

The comp to Harris isn't important.  I'm just using it to show that he's closer to a guy like Harris than a guy like Vuc bc someone comped him to Vuc. 

 

Every year there's someone Gallagher likes and/or the community likes. It's a good idea at first but then everyone joins in and the hype machine spirals so far out of control that it almost becomes impossible for the player to live up to it.  It's the way our brains work.  It's same reason why monogamy is hard.  The first time is the best time.  You guys had Allen and Murray last year.  But you've never had Siakam or MitchRob.  Next year you'll cast Siakam aside and it will be someone different.  A new toy.  It wouldn't annoy me if people weren't hyperbolic. 

 

You said top 30.  Ok, that's a possibility.  But I guarantee the people ranking him top 25 or top 20 have more than 25 guys in their top 25.  Again, totals sure.  Per game meh I don't think so, it will be close.  He could finish 32 or something.          

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3 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

The comp to Harris isn't important.  I'm just using it to show that he's closer to a guy like Harris than a guy like Vuc bc someone comped him to Vuc. 

 

Every year there's someone Gallagher likes and/or the community likes. It's a good idea at first but then everyone joins in and the hype machine spirals so far out of control that it almost becomes impossible for the player to live up to it.  It's the way our brains work.  It's same reason why monogamy is hard.  The first time is the best time.  You guys had Allen and Murray last year.  But you've never had Siakam or MitchRob.  Next year you'll cast Siakam aside and it will be someone different.  A new toy.  It wouldn't annoy me if people weren't hyperbolic. 

 

You said top 30.  Ok, that's a possibility.  But I guarantee the people ranking him top 25 or top 20 have more than 25 guys in their top 25.  Again, totals sure.  Per game meh I don't think so, it will be close.  He could finish 32 or something.          

 

I don't need Gallagher or anyone else to point out the opportunity and production Siakam can provide this year, it's self explanatory. The numbers without Kawhi speak for themselves but I know everyone has different opinions on player outlooks so we'll just have to wait and see. He's in my top 25 for sure though. 

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5 minutes ago, young_styler said:

 

I don't need Gallagher or anyone else to point out the opportunity and production Siakam can provide this year, it's self explanatory. The numbers without Kawhi speak for themselves but I know everyone has different opinions on player outlooks so we'll just have to wait and see. He's in my top 25 for sure though. 

Except the numbers without kawhi don’t actually speak to that. Vuc was 14th per game and even without Kawhi Siakam was 4 rebounds short of Vuc and .4 blocks short.  That’s a full round of value or more.  So that would have him around top 30.  Also, his numbers without Kawhi don’t guarantee he will do it in a full season. I’d like to see everyone’s top 25 who has Siakam in the top 25.  Who is being displaced so Siakam can fit in?  That’s when it gets hard.  I can tell we’ve reached an empasse.  For me I think top 35 per game, 26th in totals.  😜

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31 minutes ago, young_styler said:

 

The 20 something game stat averages without Kawhi have already been posted, that's actual proof.

No, it wasn't, because he wasn't the first option then.

So basically everyone is just saying "He'll play better this season than last".  That's the argument.  I'll let another owner roll the dice on that one, but I'll be happy to take him at the mid 30s and beyond.

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Posted (edited)

Yes, Vuc was better last year overall. 

Numbers without Kawhi
Pascal:   20.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 1 three,    0.7 blocks, 54% FG/75 FT%, 2.3 TO

Vucevic: 20.8 points, 12 rebounds,  3.8 assists, 1 steal,    1.1 threes, 1.1 blocks, 52 FG%/79 FT%, 2 TO

Only significant difference is in two categories: 3.6 rebounds and 0.4 blocks. 

I get it that blocks are scarce and hard to find, but rebounds are abundant. 

I think  numbers are comparable.

What I am saying is that Pascal has proved last season that he can produce without Kawhi as #1 or #2(if you think Lowry is #1)  option  in large sample size.

With basically the same team  (Green is gone to frustrate Lakers fans) I do believe that he can do the same this year.

Imo, if he maintains the same numbers w/o Kawhi next year that would  (probably) be 2nd round value. 

 

EDIT: If anyone has time to calculate  where Pascal would rank using numbers without Kawhi that would be awesome

Edited by Gile Pile

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4 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

EDIT: If anyone has time to calculate  where Pascal would rank using numbers without Kawhi that would be awesome

I already did.  Behind LMA who was 25th.   Which is why I said top 30ish in per game.’  But people didn’t like that answer. 

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29 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I already did.  Behind LMA who was 25th.   Which is why I said top 30ish in per game.’  But people didn’t like that answer. 

So, Pascal was 26th per game without Kawhi?

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5 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

So, Pascal was 26th per game without Kawhi?

Yes.  To make it clear it those numbers (without kawhi) *if extrapolated over the course of a season* would’ve been 26th in per game basis.  I’m uncertain whether he can sustain those numbers over the course of an entire season.  That’s why I’m saying top 30-35 per game, just outside top 25.  I do think he can be top 25 in totals, assuming he plays 80 games.

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I guess I need to see your guys top 25 because there's not even a clear cut top 20 imo. 

(Not in order)

 

1. Harden

2. Steph

3. Giannis 

4. Kat

5. AD 

6. Jokic

7. Lillard 

8. PG

9 Lebron 

10. Embiid

11. Beal

12. Butler 

13. Jrue

14. Gobert (if you're into punt ft) 

15. Vuc 

16. Drummond (if you're into punt ft)

17. Kyrie

18. Kawhi 

 

Then.

 

Kemba? Better team around him, less opportunity for stats

Booker? Injuries, lack of d stats, turnovers

Aldridge? 34 years old

Turner? Low ppg, average efficiency, inconsistent 

Conley? Same as kemba, injury potential 

Westbrook? Efficiency demolisher 

Capela? Punt ft, Westbrook effect?

And then after these guys it's anyone's guess. 

 

I'm just saying it's not like there are just 100% sure fire options better than Siakam. I'll gladly take him.

 

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16 minutes ago, young_styler said:

I guess I need to see your guys top 25 because there's not even a clear cut top 20 imo. 

(Not in order)

 

1. Harden

2. Steph

3. Giannis 

4. Kat

5. AD 

6. Jokic

7. Lillard 

8. PG

9 Lebron 

10. Embiid

11. Beal

12. Butler 

13. Jrue

14. Gobert (if you're into punt ft) 

15. Vuc 

16. Drummond (if you're into punt ft)

17. Kyrie

18. Kawhi 

 

Then.

 

Kemba? Better team around him, less opportunity for stats

Booker? Injuries, lack of d stats, turnovers

Aldridge? 34 years old

Turner? Low ppg, average efficiency, inconsistent 

Conley? Same as kemba, injury potential 

Westbrook? Efficiency demolisher 

Capela? Punt ft, Westbrook effect?

And then after these guys it's anyone's guess. 

 

I'm just saying it's not like there are just 100% sure fire options better than Siakam. I'll gladly take him.

 

Thanks for putting this together.  Everyone can agree Pascal is good and will get better.  The only thing that bothers me is the hyperbole.  Someone thinks he’s top 25?  Ok. Then show me your list.  

 

You just said you’re not certain.  Neither am I.  Then we agree.  

 

He’s a third rounder to me.  It’s academic bc I wouldn’t pick him in the second (redraft) and would the third.  Which means being between 25-36.  

 

But if someone says he’s top 25 then they better be able to back it up.  If you’re willing to say he’s somewhere in the third then that’s a statement much less hyperbolic and one I can get behind. 

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3 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Thanks for putting this together.  Everyone can agree Pascal is good and will get better.  The only thing that bothers me is the hyperbole.  Someone thinks he’s top 25?  Ok. Then show me your list.  

 

You just said you’re not certain.  Neither am I.  Then we agree.  

 

He’s a third rounder to me.  It’s academic bc I wouldn’t pick him in the second (redraft) and would the third.  Which means being between 25-36.  

 

But if someone says he’s top 25 then they better be able to back it up.  If you’re willing to say he’s somewhere in the third then that’s a statement much less hyperbolic and one I can get behind. 

 

I feel certain 100% he finishes top 25 in per game averages, barring injury. 

But like I said, everyone has their guys so I get it. I think the talent in the back half of the 2nd round - early 3rd is just really weak this year and it makes my decision easier is all. 

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3 minutes ago, young_styler said:

 

I feel certain 100% he finishes top 25 in per game averages, barring injury. 

Personally, I wouldn’t express certainty over a player who hasn’t proven it.  Too much risk of being proven wrong like the guy who said he was 1000% certain Vuc would be traded.  If I had to put numbers on it I’d say: top 25: 40%; 25-40th: 50%; worse than 40th: 10%

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

 

Pascal: 20 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 1 three, .7 blocks 54% FG/78 FT% 2 TO

 

Vuc: 20.8 points, 12 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1 steal, 1.1 threes, 1.1 blocks 52 FG%/79 FT% 2 TO

 

Yes, a quick glance reveals that Vuc's numbers are similar to Siakam's *without Kawhi* numbers.  But the highlight portions are relevant.  Vuc gets almost 4 rebounds per game more and .4 blocks more.  The median for rebounds is about 6 and the median for blocks .6.  So Vuc is almost one entire standard deviation above Siakam in rebounds/blocks . Either you don't know how significant that is or you've deliberately convinced yourself that is insignificant.  But that is HUGE.

 

I think a better comp is Tobias Harris: 20 points, 8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2 threes, .6 steals, .5 blocks 49 FG%/87% FT  1.8 To.   The bold portion is where Harris is significantly better than Siakam and the italicized portion is where he is significantly worse.  When comparing Siakam to Vuc, Siakam is almost *strictly worse*.  Whereas, comparing him to Harris Siakam is better in some categories and Harris is better in some.  They are much closer in actual value.  

 

Now if you're talking totals instead of per game, I think Siakam might get top 25.  Harris was 20th in totals.  But that also relies on Siakam continuing to be as healthy as he was last season, which is likely.  But you never know.

 

 

8 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Yes, but Butler's gone.  So I would assume Harris gets some usage back.  It just seems as if every year everyone falls in love with a guy.  Last year it was Jarrett Allen.  Or Jamal Murray.  Or Chriss.  This year it's MitchRob and Siakam.  I have no doubt Siakam will improve a little.  And look, if you draft him in the third round he's probably a good deal there.  I think people are a little careless with their language and rank like 40 guys as top 25 guys.  It's fairly academic but I'd bet Siakam doesn't hit top 25 in per game.  Totals, sure.  

Sorry man, but I think it's you that's getting carried away a bit on the differences. Vuce is a top 10 pick. Nobody said pascal is better or even equal to vuce, they said similar stat comparisons. Two areas you have highlighted he is worse. That's the difference between top 10 and top 20-25 (esp. As there is always a drop from late 1st round value) .

Totals are what really matters, especially for roto and siakam has proved very durable and it makes sense, he is athletic, fast, strong and has arguably the best motor (stamina) in the NBA. 

And again you're basing your assessment on zero growth and he is still improving at an extremely fast rate. He has shown no signs he has reached his ceilings from college to nba and then even to the nba playoffs and finals where his scoring increased by about 15% (albeit on lower efficiency as is usually the case with every non-Kawhi Leonard player). You say he hasn't proven it... I'd respond to that by saying he just proved it (especially in games 1 and 6 - he and FVV closed out the title for the raptors in game 6 not Kawhi and lowry) in the NBA finals... If that doesn't "prove it" what does!? 

Another thing that hasn't even been mentioned is contract year. Vuce and Harris have just been paid. Siakam is in arguably the most important season of his career going from a late first round rookie contract to what could be (and I predict will be) a max deal. He has A LOT to play for and is a super motivated guy anyway. 

I'm not necessarily saying draft him in the 2nd round, I'll be targeting him from the turn to the 3rd (somewhere in the 20s). But I predict him to finish with 2nd round value (and with growth that will be close in not only total value but also per game). I don't even think the stat line I predicted is overly optimistic (he could exceed that as his upside is REAL) but it is 2nd round value.  

%s - 70, 25, 5 (top 25 on total value, 25-40, 40+). 

Edited by Jake the snake
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Jake the Snake Posted August 19, 2018

Pascal Siakam. I think he is a huge break-out candidate this year. The Raps look awful with JV and Serge playing together so I expect Serge to play mostly at the 5 and run a more dynamic and fluent offense. Siakam is perfect for that. Great passer, good handles, nice stocks, I dare say he's 3pt% will be substantially improved this season (42% in the last 14 games). He can do it all. His weakness is maybe rebounding, and FT% (although it's not awful and he never shoots them) but given his improvements in his 2-year college and NBA careers I think we'll see him take another massive leap this year. My early tip for MIP. And could be really nice in fantasy if he can grab the starting PF job or play big mins as 6th man (they might even run a bit of Siakam at the 5 in a super death line-up of Lowry, Green/Wright/FVV, Kawhi, OG, Siakam - try and keep up with that team)

 

I remembered correctly, it was you who was spot on last season 💪 

 

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6 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

Sorry man, but I think it's you that's getting carried away a bit on the differences. Vuce is a top 10 pick. Nobody said pascal is better or even equal to vuce, they said similar stat comparisons. Two areas you have highlighted he is worse. That's the difference between top 10 and top 20-25 (esp. As there is always a drop from late 1st round value) .

Totals are what really matters, especially for roto and siakam has proved very durable and it makes sense, he is athletic, fast, strong and has arguably the best motor (stamina) in the NBA. 

And again you're basing your assessment on zero growth and he is still improving at an extremely fast rate. He has shown no signs he has reached his ceilings from college to nba and then even to the nba playoffs and finals where his scoring increased by about 15% (albeit on lower efficiency as is usually the case with every non-Kawhi Leonard player). You say he hasn't proven it... I'd respond to that by saying he just proved it (especially in games 1 and 6 - he and FVV closed out the title for the raptors in game 6 not Kawhi and lowry) in the NBA finals... If that doesn't "prove it" what does!? 

Another thing that hasn't even been mentioned is contract year. Vuce and Harris have just been paid. Siakam is in arguably the most important season of his career going from a late first round rookie contract to what could be (and I predict will be) a max deal. He has A LOT to play for and is a super motivated guy anyway. 

I'm not necessarily saying draft him in the 2nd round, I'll be targeting him from the turn to the 3rd (somewhere in the 20s). But I predict him to finish with 2nd round value (and with growth that will be close in not only total value but also per game). I don't even think the stat line I predicted is overly optimistic (he could exceed that as his upside is REAL) but it is 2nd round value.  

%s - 70, 25, 5 (top 25 on total value, 25-40, 40+). 

Actually a direct comparison was made to Vuc otherwise I wouldn’t have been compelled to rebut it. 

 

If you read my posts I already said at least five times that he can hit top 25 in totals so that’s a complete straw man.  My argument is in reference to per game. As stated repeatedly.

 

No, I think you’re being optimistic because you’re cherry picking a data point and extrapolating that he can sustain that for an entire season.  Then you’re projecting improvement from that cherry picked data point.  I have no doubt he can improve from his averages  but I’m skeptical as to how much he can improve from his best games last season.  

 

He will have more focus from the defense but presumably you don’t project a drop in FG% which was his best cat.  If he expends more effort on offense presumably he will be more tired on defense yet you’re projecting more stocks than last year.  He could be a good defender but that doesn’t necessarily translate into stocks.  Presumably you believe he will play 36 mpg and still play 80 games.  I don’t believe it.  You’re picking his best stretch of games from last year, expecting improvement from that, and thinking he can sustain that for an entire season without missing games. Possible.  But this is a math game that deals with probability not stories.  And I don’t think it’s likely. 

 

You guys kill me with the narrow in on one thing he said and ignore the rest.  The comparison to Harris doesn’t ******** matter.  I only brought it up to illustrate why comparing him to Vuc and saying oh well he’s only 4 rebounds and .4 blocks worse is a flawed argument when dealing with metrics because 4 rebounds is a huge deal. 

 

BTW I never said anything derogatory about Pascal, I just don’t think people have put in the work to figure out whether he’s actually top 25 on a per game basis.  Someone asking where his stretch of games without kawhi fits into BBM proves that they haven’t really done the statistical analysis, they’re just saying top 25 because it’s a round number to target.  Well I had put in the work and I think it’s unlikely to happen.  It could.  But I’d say it’s under 50/50.  

 

To end the argument I’ll be willing to wear a Pascal jersey if he sustains top 25 value on a PER GAME basis.  But if he’s 26th or worse I want everyone who said top 25 to wear a giant sign that says: I don’t do maths.  I just say things offhand.  

 

BTW no qualifiers either.  It’s top 25 or bust.  Even if he improves to 26th you lose.  I know he’s a good young player who can improve.  That’s not what bothers me.  As I’ve said before, it’s throwing out the number top 25 without doing the work to justify that specific number. If you all had said he’s a good Youngblood and I expect improvement then I never would have posted.  

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Posted (edited)

31 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Actually a direct comparison was made to Vuc otherwise I wouldn’t have been compelled to rebut it. 

 

If you read my posts I already said at least five times that he can hit top 25 in totals so that’s a complete straw man.  My argument is in reference to per game. As stated repeatedly.

 

No, I think you’re being optimistic because you’re cherry picking a data point and extrapolating that he can sustain that for an entire season.  Then you’re projecting improvement from that cherry picked data point.  I have no doubt he can improve from his averages  but I’m skeptical as to how much he can improve from his best games last season.  

 

He will have more focus from the defense but presumably you don’t project a drop in FG% which was his best cat.  If he expends more effort on offense presumably he will be more tired on defense yet you’re projecting more stocks than last year.  He could be a good defender but that doesn’t necessarily translate into stocks.  Presumably you believe he will play 36 mpg and still play 80 games.  I don’t believe it.  You’re picking his best stretch of games from last year, expecting improvement from that, and thinking he can sustain that for an entire season without missing games. Possible.  But this is a math game that deals with probability not stories.  And I don’t think it’s likely. 

 

You guys kill me with the narrow in on one thing he said and ignore the rest.  The comparison to Harris doesn’t ******** matter.  I only brought it up to illustrate why comparing him to Vuc and saying oh well he’s only 4 rebounds and .4 blocks worse is a flawed argument when dealing with metrics because 4 rebounds is a huge deal. 

 

BTW I never said anything derogatory about Pascal, I just don’t think people have put in the work to figure out whether he’s actually top 25 on a per game basis.  Someone asking where his stretch of games without kawhi fits into BBM proves that they haven’t really done the statistical analysis, they’re just saying top 25 because it’s a round number to target.  Well I had put in the work and I think it’s unlikely to happen.  It could.  But I’d say it’s under 50/50.  

 

To end the argument I’ll be willing to wear a Pascal jersey if he sustains top 25 value on a PER GAME basis.  But if he’s 26th or worse I want everyone who said top 25 to wear a giant sign that says: I don’t do maths.  I just say things offhand.  

 

BTW no qualifiers either.  It’s top 25 or bust.  Even if he improves to 26th you lose.  I know he’s a good young player who can improve.  That’s not what bothers me.  As I’ve said before, it’s throwing out the number top 25 without doing the work to justify that specific number. If you all had said he’s a good Youngblood and I expect improvement then I never would have posted.  

 

I think we've all done our homework or we wouldn't be debating on this forum lol. 

 

I mean Durant is out for the year, Covington only had a 35 game sample size and I don't expect his per game averages to be that high again, I doubt CP3 and Capela will have top 25 per game averages and Jakarr Sampson was top 25 on averages so throw that one out too obviously. So that's 5 players out from the top 25 of last year and that's on top of the other 6 questionable top 25 guys I mentioned in my last post (Turner, Westbrook, Kemba, Aldridge, Conley, Booker).

I just don't see what's so outlandish about Siakam being top 25 lol. 22-8-4 with 1.5 threes and close to 1+1 on good efficiency are my expectations and are top 25 in any league. 

Edited by young_styler
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3 minutes ago, young_styler said:

 

I think we've all done our homework or we wouldn't be debating on this forum lol. 

 

I mean Durant is out for the year, Covington only had a 35 game sample size and I don't expect his per game averages to be that high again, I doubt CP3 and Capela will have top 25 per game averages and Jakarr Sampson was top 25 on averages so throw that one out too obviously. So that's 5 players on top of the other 6 questionable top 25 guys I mentioned in my last post.

I just don't see what's so outlandish about Siakam being top 25 lol. 22-8-4 with 1.5 threes and close to 1+1 on good efficiency are my expectations and are top 25 in any league. 

I didn't say it was outlandish.  I simply said it's unlikely.  If it was outlandish everyone would just roll their eyes and it wouldn't be worth responding to.

 

But for argument's sake let's go through all the players ranked between 25 and 40.  Also, keep in mind that there are other players such as MitchRob, Ayton, Lauri, etc. outside the top 25 last year who many people think will be top 25 this year...which is my point: people have like 40 top 25 players...lol.  

25. Aldridge: 21/9/2.4 with .5 steals and 1.3 blocks.  52%/85%/1.8.  I don't expect much decline this year, redraft, as he's been stable for sometime.  I don't think Pascal will pass him due to the value of blocks.

26. Turner: 13.3/7/1.6 with .8 steals and 2.7 blocks.  49%/74%/1.4  I don't expect Siakam to surpass Turner either. Turner is also young and improving, plus 2.7 blocks are so valuable I don't see Pascal being better.

27. Conley: Yeah on the Jazz, one year older, I think Siakam can pass him.

28. Gallinari: Similar to above, new situation, injury prone.  Siakam is better.

29. Horford: New team, low usage.  Another one I think Siakam can pass.

30. Klay: Out

31. Brolo: Not confident he can repeat and he's older.  I'd take Siakam.

32. Westbrook: Meh.  I'd pick Siakam, particularly in roto, especially given Westbrook being on a team with Harden.

33. Ayton:  He was better than Siakam last year and I think he has even more room to improve than Siakam.  If he can hit 20/11/1/1 with 59/79 splits and under 2 TO I'd definitely pick him over Siakam.  He was even more efficient than Siakam, which is Siakam's biggest cat.  Centers are more scarce and he gets more rebs/blocks, blocks being the scarcest cat.

34. Cousins: Too hard to predict, given that he is recovering from injury, in a new situation.  But I think he could finish over Siakam.

35. Tobias: Already discussed, they have similar profiles, Siakam is better.

36: Lowry: Everyone is discussing Siakam's increased usage without Kawhi but what they're ignoring was that prime Lowry was a borderline first round player.  I certainly think Lowry has t he potential for finishing about Siakam.  If he can get back to 18/8/5 with 3 threes and 1.5 steals then I pick him over Siakam.

37. Nurkic: Out

38. Hield: Prefer Siakam as the cats he's productive in are more scarce.

39. Porter: Interesting debate.  Porter was 27th in Chicago with splits of 17.5/6/2.5 2.5 threes, 1.2 steals, .6 blocks.  48%/96%! and under 2 TO.  Otto seems as if he has been around forever but he's only 26.  I think he and Siakam will be close in value and I'll lmfao if he gets 25th to Siakam's 26th.  It's a toss up for me, but given that Porter will be cheaper I'd take Otto at his price over Pascal at his.

40.  Lauri: Already has better counting stats that Siakam: 19/9 with 2.3 threes, similar stocks.  If he can hit 20/10 and get that FG up then I think I'd prefer him over Siakam.

 

This doesn't even including MitchRob, who if he is as good as advertised will likely be better than Pascal.  If Roco gets kicked outside the top 25 he might just get replaced by MitchRob so that's a draw.  Durant is one person dropping out of the top 25.

 

I've highlighted the players whom I think could finish ahead of Pascal in PER GAME REDRAFT.  If you add MitchRob, subtract Roco and Durant, then include the highlighted players not necessarily as top 25 but players 25-40 who I think Pascal will have a hard time passing then that leaves Pascal at...30 which I already said.  I already ran the numbers in BBM and his best stretch of games would put him at 26th.  Like I've said ten times now, I'm not a Pascal "hater" or anything like that. It just bothers me when people say someone is top 25 and they haven't done an in depth analysis.  I know in depth analysis wasn't done bc one of you asked someone to put his numbers without Kawhi into BBM.  Which I had already done.  He can *probably* be top 30.  But when someone claims top 25.  Ok...prove it.  And if you don't have logical statistical proof, don't give me a narrative.  This isn't a story game, it's a math game.  

 

 

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16 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

I guess you guys want a stat line with that:
22ppg 7.58.2rbs 4.2ast 1.0stl 0.9blk 2.42.2TOs 50/37/79% and 1.5 threes, that's easy top 20.

 

24 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

[1]...If you read my posts I already said at least five times that he can hit top 25 in totals so that’s a complete straw man.  My argument is in reference to per game. As stated repeatedly...To end the argument I’ll be willing to wear a Pascal jersey if he sustains top 25 value on a PER GAME basis.  But if he’s 26th or worse I want everyone who said top 25 to wear a giant sign that says: I don’t do maths.  I just say things offhand... BTW no qualifiers either..
[2]...No, I think you’re being optimistic because you’re cherry picking a data point and extrapolating that he can sustain that for an entire season...
[3]... but presumably you don’t project a drop in FG% which was his best cat. ...
[4]...If he expends more effort on offense presumably he will be more tired on defense yet you’re projecting more stocks than last year ... 
[5]...Presumably you believe he will play 36 mpg and still play 80 games...   
[6]...The comparison to Harris doesn’t ******** matter.  I only brought it up to illustrate...
[7]...comparing him to Vuc and saying oh well he’s only 4 rebounds and .4 blocks worse is a flawed argument when dealing with metrics because 4 rebounds is a huge deal...

To make this response easier I numbered things:

1. I'm down with that. I'm super confident he'll reach top 25 on total value (I think I my prediction was pessimistic before) I'll up that to 80% (injuries happen). On per game I'll say 63.4% he ends up in top 25. I will hedge that with one qualifer - minimum games played of let's say just over 1/3 of the season (30 games). That is fair, anyone under that has no real value and is TOO injured to really affect your chances of winning your league. It should really be half the season, but I don't want to push you too far ;).

2. This is most definitely NOT cherry picking as has been pointed out by @Gile Pile and @Stefan this is based on 1012 minutes, which is almost half of his minutes played. Remember the Raptors were 17-5 without Kawhi. They're a good team and they play even better team basketball. Extrapolating that to a whole season does not seem very outlandish to me (especially when as I have said too many times he is improving so rapidly).

3. I included my stat line prediction I made before and I did predict a drop in FG%, which was very similar to one @Mikhov made. And I don't think it is overly optimistic, to the point where I have edited it a little because I sold my boy short in rebounds.

4. I'm predicting only a mild increase in stocks.

5. I don't think he'll play 36mpg, but I do think he'll play close to 80. Raptors are deep and they will be good again (I've got them locked for 4th in the east). Siakam will get his rest. I expect 33-34mpg.

6. Harris comparison is a good one, but not on the whole season. It needs to be split into pre- and post-trade. For the Clippers: 

20.9pt 2.0three 7.8rbs 2.7ast 0.7stl 0.4blk .496fg%   .877FT%   2.0TO

That is the comparison to make. And this put Harris at 23rd in per game value and his blocks are lower, stl lower, ast I expect lower, FT% and threes a little higher. For 76ers:

18.2 1.6 7.9 2.9 0.4 0.5 .469   .841   1.6

Good for 69th per game. Harris was the man for Clips, then he became a man (a good one). Siakam was a man (dam good one) and now he is THE man for the raps (sorry you're incorrect that Siakam won't be the number 1 option on this team moving forward). FYI: Siakam>Harris IRL and fantasy (sorry just had to throw that in)!

7. Again I agree Vuc is better and I agree with the differences you made. And I'm stressing again the differences you highlighted are what separates Vuce (top 10) from Siakam (top 20 or top 25).

8. I thought you weren't going to doubt me anymore when it comes to predicting the raptors 🤣? [we are just bantering here, don't get too worked up...!]

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

To make this response easier I numbered things:

1. I'm down with that. I'm super confident he'll reach top 25 on total value (I think I my prediction was pessimistic before) I'll up that to 80% (injuries happen). On per game I'll say 63.4% he ends up in top 25. I will hedge that with one qualifer - minimum games played of let's say just over 1/3 of the season (30 games). That is fair, anyone under that has no real value and is TOO injured to really affect your chances of winning your league. It should really be half the season, but I don't want to push you too far ;).

2. This is most definitely NOT cherry picking as has been pointed out by @Gile Pile and @Stefan this is based on 1012 minutes, which is almost half of his minutes played. Remember the Raptors were 17-5 without Kawhi. They're a good team and they play even better team basketball. Extrapolating that to a whole season does not seem very outlandish to me (especially when as I have said too many times he is improving so rapidly).

3. I included my stat line prediction I made before and I did predict a drop in FG%, which was very similar to one @Mikhov made. And I don't think it is overly optimistic, to the point where I have edited it a little because I sold my boy short in rebounds.

4. I'm predicting only a mild increase in stocks.

5. I don't think he'll play 36mpg, but I do think he'll play close to 80. Raptors are deep and they will be good again (I've got them locked for 4th in the east). Siakam will get his rest. I expect 33-34mpg.

6. Harris comparison is a good one, but not on the whole season. It needs to be split into pre- and post-trade. For the Clippers: 

20.9pt 2.0three 7.8rbs 2.7ast 0.7stl 0.4blk .496fg%   .877FT%   2.0TO

That is the comparison to make. And this put Harris at 23rd in per game value and his blocks are lower, stl lower, ast I expect lower, FT% and threes a little higher. For 76ers:

18.2 1.6 7.9 2.9 0.4 0.5 .469   .841   1.6

Good for 69th per game. Harris was the man for Clips, then he became a man (a good one). Siakam was a man (dam good one) and now he is THE man for the raps (sorry you're incorrect that Siakam won't be the number 1 option on this team moving forward). FYI: Siakam>Harris IRL and fantasy (sorry just had to throw that in)!

7. Again I agree Vuc is better and I agree with the differences you made. And I'm stressing again the differences you highlighted are what separates Vuce (top 10) from Siakam (top 20 or top 25).

8. I thought you weren't going to doubt me anymore when it comes to predicting the raptors 🤣? [we are just bantering here, don't get too worked up...!]

 

 

It's become a bit of a quagmire for sure 😜

 

It is purely academic because it doesn't really matter whether he is 24th or 29th if his stats are the same either way.  I'll say I like my side of it, 26th or worse, but I'm not that confident.  I'd say it's 60/40.  But I wouldn't have posed the bet if I thought it wasn't fair.  I could definitely lose.  But that just makes it more of a sweat. 

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1 minute ago, StifleTower2 said:

It's become a bit of a quagmire for sure 😜

 

It is purely academic because it doesn't really matter whether he is 24th or 29th if his stats are the same either way.  I'll say I like my side of it, 26th or worse, but I'm not that confident.  I'd say it's 60/40.  But I wouldn't have posed the bet if I thought it wasn't fair.  I could definitely lose.  But that just makes it more of a sweat. 

 

Alright let's make it a wager we can actually go through with:

You have to change your username to Spicey P's Death Sauce or Pascal Siakam: Basketball God (your choice) if he finishes in top 25 per game discounting guys that play less than half the season (or do you need the 30 game thing?).

I'll change mine to whatever you propose: ...

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