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Pascal Siakam 2019-2020 Season Outlook

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Just now, Fantasyscrub said:

 

I don't know much about dynasty but I'd be all over Nance for $5 in a h2h league.  He was a monster for me last year

Do it then.  In most low buy in leagues he’s not really a guy people target and he might cost $5.  In a league full of “smart” people they’re just going to say Nance has a capped upside due to Love returning from injury and he will cost $5.  

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7 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Who is better in dynasty: Tatum or Pascal?  And if Pascal, by how much?

 

I'm going to say Siakam for the moment but its super close and I could see Tatum overtaking him in a year or two...especially if the high 3 pt FG comes back...his FT are better, TO better, stocks just slightly better but Siakam might have the potential to beat him slightly there.  Siakam better FG and assists, and probably better points unless Kemba gets hurt.  Since its close I would go Siakam because I'm a big fan and watching him play he's so much more fun and dynamic.  

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I'm going to say Siakam for the moment but its super close and I could see Tatum overtaking him in a year or two...especially if the high 3 pt FG comes back...his FT are better, TO better, stocks just slightly better but Siakam might have the potential to beat him slightly there.  Siakam better FG and assists, and probably better points unless Kemba gets hurt.  Since its close I would go Siakam because I'm a big fan and watching him play he's so much more fun and dynamic.  

 

But I would say in dynasty drafts due to hype Siakam probably goes at least a round before Tatum at the moment, so maybe Tatum is a great pick if you're targeting Siakam and get sniped.  

Edited by hipriest69

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3 Most Overhyped Players

Pascal Siakam - Toronto Raptors

Siakam has received a lot of hype after his Most Improved award last season and two great games in the NBA Finals series against the Warriors. Whilst he did significantly improve his game last year, he still has some deficiencies that he will need to address.  In Siakam’s 24 postseason games in 2019, his field goal percentage was 47%, down from 54.5% in the regular season and his three-point percentage was down to 27.9% from 36.9% in the regular season; all this after his minutes increased from 32 to 37 per game. Be warned, without Kawhi Leonard, Siakam’s minutes will increase and defenses will be focused heavily on slowing him down. The pressure will be on for him to score for the Raptors. I’m not saying Siakam won’t be decent. But make sure you don’t overpay for him by reaching in the second round. I have him ranked around the 35th pick in upcoming drafts.

 

I'm not posting this as proof of the matter, but I thought it was interesting.  It's from fantrax.

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

 

3 Most Overhyped Players

Pascal Siakam - Toronto Raptors

Siakam has received a lot of hype after his Most Improved award last season and two great games in the NBA Finals series against the Warriors.[ ...] I’m not saying Siakam won’t be decent. But make sure you don’t overpay for him by reaching in the second round. I have him ranked around the 35th pick in upcoming drafts.

 

I'm not posting this as proof of the matter, but I thought it was interesting.  It's from fantrax.

 

We see it all the time tbh, and I think there's some validity to defenses learning how to key in on players. But at least this makes me hopeful:

 

" Last season, Siakam’s usage jumped to 25 percent with Leonard off the floor from February onward. But despite more touches and a greater responsibility to create, Siakam wasn’t any less efficient as his true-shooting percentage remained elite at 59 percent." - Yahoo. 

Also per NBA.com:

"Raptors also had a 10.1 net rating last season in the over 1,000 minutes that Siakam spent on the floor without Leonard.

Whenever Leonard was out of the game, Siakam delivered 20.3 points and 8.4 rebounds per 36 minutes on an efficient 54% from the field. Flirting with a 20-10 in a sample of 1,000 minutes is no joke and numbers that would land Siakam in the All-Star Game next season. Overall, he was the Raptors' leading scorer in the games that Leonard missed due to load management, averaging 19.1 points per game."

 

Although along with all of those stats does come that awful 3pt percentage. NBA.com also says it dropped to 29% without Kawhi. Danny Green's spacing will be gone too, so that won't help matters. 

 

Other interesting stats:

----------------------------------

Here were the players guarding Siakam predominantly over the final three rounds of the playoffs:

Joel Embiid, who defended him on nearly 80 more possessions than any other Sixer

Giannis Antetokounmpo, who defended him twice as much as any other Buck

Draymond Green, who defended him nearly four times as much as any other Warrior

- Pascal Siakam was guarded by those 3 players on 42% of his offensive possessions, 3 of the best defenders in the league. He still managed 18 ppg on 45% shooting against them. 

---------------------------------

 

That's some positive and some negatives for sure, but it's always good to have more info.

Edited by s-kayos
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It looks like Fantrax is concerned about his postseason stats and conveniently   chose stats that went down (ast, FG% and FT%).  I am not sure if 3PT%  matters at all, is that  a category? 

One can argue that in 24 postseason games his points, rebounds, steals and turnovers improved.

Unless you play in a post season league those stats are basically  meaningless.

Regular season is what matters in fantasy basketball, and these are his numbers without Kawhi, that were good for 26th overall per game last season

The hype is real and some people will reach for him too early.  Pacal at 35th  seems low to me,  20-30 range seems just about right.   And he will finish top-25 per game next season.

In case you have nothing else to do:  https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/pascal-siakams-next-step-for-toronto-raptors-will-be-the-hardest-one-of-all-184143006.html

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1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

Regular season is what matters in fantasy basketball, and these are his numbers without Kawhi, that were good for 26th overall per game last season

The hype is real and some people will reach for him too early.  Pacal at 35th  seems low to me,  20-30 range seems just about right.   And he will finish top-25 per game next season.

In case you have nothing else to do:  https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/pascal-siakams-next-step-for-toronto-raptors-will-be-the-hardest-one-of-all-184143006.html

 

HOLY CRAP.  I watched the video in the article you posted.  Siakam is going to go off this year.  No one can stop him.  Everyone is terrified of him getting to the rim so they go under the screen and he hits the high percentage elbow jumper.  If not he blows by them for an easy bucket.  In iso they have to give him space and he's long enough to just rise up for the mid-range or runner.  This is in addition to his unstoppable running bank shot / spin move counter.  On the break in the open court your only option is to foul or give up an easy shot.  There is no way he's under 20 ppg.  Plus the extra usage and role could equal about 5 assists / game.  He has the length for more stocks but I'm not sure it will get to 2 combined...probably closer to 1.6 ish which is kind of a bummer.    

 

I could reasonably see 22 / 8 / 5 / 1.5 threes.  Good playoff schedule.  Durable.  Now I'm back to the part of, who am I taking over him?  Collins, Ayton, Lowry, Turner, Mitchell, Booker, Russell...I like the stat impact over Siakam for some of those players, but I'm not so sure I take any of those guys over Siakam...so back at the fundamental question, depending on my team makeup after 2 picks, do I want slightly above average across the board production, or higher categorical impact players...

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5 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

HOLY CRAP.  I watched the video in the article you posted.  Siakam is going to go off this year.  No one can stop him.  Everyone is terrified of him getting to the rim so they go under the screen and he hits the high percentage elbow jumper.  If not he blows by them for an easy bucket.  In iso they have to give him space and he's long enough to just rise up for the mid-range or runner.  This is in addition to his unstoppable running bank shot / spin move counter.  On the break in the open court your only option is to foul or give up an easy shot.  There is no way he's under 20 ppg.  Plus the extra usage and role could equal about 5 assists / game.  He has the length for more stocks but I'm not sure it will get to 2 combined...probably closer to 1.6 ish which is kind of a bummer.    

 

I could reasonably see 22 / 8 / 5 / 1.5 threes.  Good playoff schedule.  Durable.  Now I'm back to the part of, who am I taking over him?  Collins, Ayton, Lowry, Turner, Mitchell, Booker, Russell...I like the stat impact over Siakam for some of those players, but I'm not so sure I take any of those guys over Siakam...so back at the fundamental question, depending on my team makeup after 2 picks, do I want slightly above average across the board production, or higher categorical impact players...

The question is....do you take him 23rd?

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1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

 

HOLY CRAP.  I watched the video in the article you posted.  Siakam is going to go off this year.  No one can stop him.  Everyone is terrified of him getting to the rim so they go under the screen and he hits the high percentage elbow jumper.  If not he blows by them for an easy bucket.  In iso they have to give him space and he's long enough to just rise up for the mid-range or runner.  This is in addition to his unstoppable running bank shot / spin move counter.  On the break in the open court your only option is to foul or give up an easy shot.  There is no way he's under 20 ppg.  Plus the extra usage and role could equal about 5 assists / game.  He has the length for more stocks but I'm not sure it will get to 2 combined...probably closer to 1.6 ish which is kind of a bummer.    

 

I could reasonably see 22 / 8 / 5 / 1.5 threes.  Good playoff schedule.  Durable.  Now I'm back to the part of, who am I taking over him?  Collins, Ayton, Lowry, Turner, Mitchell, Booker, Russell...I like the stat impact over Siakam for some of those players, but I'm not so sure I take any of those guys over Siakam...so back at the fundamental question, depending on my team makeup after 2 picks, do I want slightly above average across the board production, or higher categorical impact players...

And given that the Raptors have 3 expirings in Kyle, Serge and Marc, there's a big chance that at least one of those guys gets shipped out sometime between after Christmas and the trade deadline, so Siakam's usage will likely even get a further bump towards the end of the year.

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18 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

3 Most Overhyped Players
Pascal Siakam
- Toronto Raptors

Siakam has received a lot of hype after his Most Improved award last season and two great games in the NBA Finals series against the Warriors. Whilst he did significantly improve his game last year, he still has some deficiencies that he will need to address.  In Siakam’s 24 postseason games in 2019, his field goal percentage was 47%, down from 54.5% in the regular season and his three-point percentage was down to 27.9% from 36.9% in the regular season; all this after his minutes increased from 32 to 37 per game. Be warned, without Kawhi Leonard, Siakam’s minutes will increase and defenses will be focused heavily on slowing him down. The pressure will be on for him to score for the Raptors. I’m not saying Siakam won’t be decent. But make sure you don’t overpay for him by reaching in the second round. I have him ranked around the 35th pick in upcoming drafts.

I'm not posting this as proof of the matter, but I thought it was interesting.  It's from fantrax.

You know I'm gonna weigh in on mai boi pascal!
Name another player in the league that improves their efficiency in the playoffs apart from Kawhi? In the playoffs guys are going against the best defenders in the league who are locked in on him over 7 game series - and he still put up good numbers overall and Brilliant numbers in two of the Finals games (clearly the best player on the court in two of the Raptors wins games 1 and 6) against the self proclaimed "best defender of all-time". Playoffs are great for seeing guys that perform well as potential growth players for the following season, but attempting to base their efficiency on their playoff efficiency is a poor use of data.

16 hours ago, s-kayos said:

We see it all the time tbh, and I think there's some validity to defenses learning how to key in on players. But at least this makes me hopeful: " Last season, Siakam’s usage jumped to 25 percent with Leonard off the floor from February onward. But despite more touches and a greater responsibility to create, Siakam wasn’t any less efficient as his true-shooting percentage remained elite at 59 percent." - Yahoo. 

Also per NBA.com: "Raptors also had a 10.1 net rating last season in the over 1,000 minutes that Siakam spent on the floor without Leonard.Whenever Leonard was out of the game, Siakam delivered 20.3 points and 8.4 rebounds per 36 minutes on an efficient 54% from the field. Flirting with a 20-10 in a sample of 1,000 minutes is no joke and numbers that would land Siakam in the All-Star Game next season. Overall, he was the Raptors' leading scorer in the games that Leonard missed due to load management, averaging 19.1 points per game."
Although along with all of those stats does come that awful 3pt percentage. NBA.com also says it dropped to 29% without Kawhi. Danny Green's spacing will be gone too, so that won't help matters. 
Other interesting stats:
Here were the players guarding Siakam predominantly over the final three rounds of the playoffs:
Joel Embiid, who defended him on nearly 80 more possessions than any other Sixer
Giannis Antetokounmpo, who defended him twice as much as any other Buck

Draymond Green, who defended him nearly four times as much as any other Warrior
- Pascal Siakam was guarded by those 3 players on 42% of his offensive possessions, 3 of the best defenders in the league. He still managed 18 ppg on 45% shooting against them. 

That's some positive and some negatives for sure, but it's always good to have more info.

This is a much better assessment from @s-kayos regular season scouting team is good, but not as good as post-season scouting on a game-to-game basis. And he is still a match-up nightmare for most players. Small guys he beats with size, big guys he beats with skill and pace. I have said all along I expect a dip in efficiency and I've predicted 50% FG and that is not optimistic by any stretch (maybe a tad pessimistic), but I think it's fair. Again durability, opportunity, high ceiling, and most of all growth curve - the guy is a REALLY hard worker and is still improving. These things make him a safe pick, which gives his ranking a huge boost over guys that could be good, but could also be REALLY bad. 20-30 range isn't a reach for a guy with 2nd round upside and 4th (at very very worst 5th) round floor. The floor is his efficiency tanking to about 47% such as the playoffs and returning 17-7-3-0.8-0.7 and 2.7 TOs, 1.3 triples on 47/32/75. That is still a WAY better floor than a lot of other guys in that range - Mitch Rob, Collins (these guys are high risk high reward types); Turner (if he losses blocks by becoming a more rounded defender he tanks in value and some durability concerns); Lowry (age, injury); Conley (age, injury - I'd pick him over Lowry this year); Booker, Don Mitchell (efficiency and injury with Booker); Zion (?! are people really picking him here this year?!). Two guys with similar or better floors and value overall are LA and Ayton so I rank Siakam VERY close to these two.

As crazy as it sounds he still has room to be in the running for most improved player AGAIN this year. Watch the video I posted here (about a month back) of him working out with Rico Hines and you'll see where he can grow (ball-handling, pull-up game, and continue to get more consistent with his shooting). I've said it once and I'll say it again, IMO we haven't come close to seeing peak Pascal.

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