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Fuzzy_Slippers

7/8 - HOME RUN DERBY GDT

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Posted (edited)

I'd like to see Acuña win it.

 

 

ronald-acuna-custom-batting-gloves-slide

Edited by Members_Only_76
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It looks like Matt Chapman has replaced Yelich

 

Left side of bracket

1) Matt Chapman, A’s vs. 8) Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays

4) Alex Bregman, Astros vs. 5) Joc Pederson, Dodgers

Right side of bracket

2) Pete Alonso, Mets vs. 7) Carlos Santana, Indians

3) Josh Bell, Pirates vs. 6) Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves

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Joc's been to the finals before. Acuna is the underdog simply because he has to go through Alonso and Bell. Tough figuring out who to bet on. 

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7 minutes ago, collucho said:

Joc's been to the finals before. Acuna is the underdog simply because he has to go through Alonso and Bell. Tough figuring out who to bet on. 

 

I love Joc at -155 to beat Bregman first round.

Also taking Alonso at +300 to win. I want to trust Vlad but I've seen big guys like Aguilar and Sano in prior years get gassed halfway through

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Sure, anything is possible, but analysis after analysis (many of which are cited in that thread) shows that the number who fall off is in line with what would be expected due to natural regression.  Those arguing in favor of a hypothesis by which players somehow throw off their swing for the derby have failed to show such an effect.  It's fine to say it could happen, or to say that you believe it does happen, but your question was "which is it", and the compelling evidence is on the side of "myth."

 

natural regression according to those that make predictions/projections? just because analysts say something will be doesn't make it real, or fantasy baseball would be easier.

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5 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

natural regression according to those that make predictions/projections?

 

No, results from actual players.  If you can't be troubled to read the studies, at least read this from the conclusion of one of them:
 

Quote

 

Certainly, some players will have a decline in power-hitting statistics from the first half of the season to the second after participating in the Derby, but it is clear from the analysis that this would have occurred for those players regardless of whether they chose to participate or not.

 

 

The studies vary in how they do the analysis, but it's all based on real numbers from actual player performance, not "predictions/projectoins".  In some studies they use player-seasons for players in the years they made the derby vs. years they didn't, in others they compared performance of those who did participate vs. those who didn't in the same season.  In each case, the evidence shows there is no effect of participating in the derby that isn't easily explained by happenstance.
 

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Bell +250

Joc Jamz +700

 

Thats who I'm rolling with

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I’ve changed my bet to Carlos Santana.... lefties benefit the most in that field. Also his home turf. 

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11 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

Vlad will won this year and every year he participates after.  

i dont see him getting past round 1

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

No, results from actual players.  If you can't be troubled to read the studies, at least read this from the conclusion of one of them:
 

 

The studies vary in how they do the analysis, but it's all based on real numbers from actual player performance, not "predictions/projectoins".  In some studies they use player-seasons for players in the years they made the derby vs. years they didn't, in others they compared performance of those who did participate vs. those who didn't in the same season.  In each case, the evidence shows there is no effect of participating in the derby that isn't easily explained by happenstance.
 

 

the change in HR from the 1st half to the 2nd half from players in the HR derby would be results. calling it "natural regression" is speculation.

we know it's a fact that players change their swing in season and/or from season to season. it shouldn't be unrealistic that a player can change their swing in the HR derby as they advance through the rounds in order to advance.

some players it might not impact them at all as their swing is suited for HR, but others players who may not have an ideal launch angle could adjust their swing and then not adjust back as easily. it could be a case by case by case basis.

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15 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

the change in HR from the 1st half to the 2nd half from players in the HR derby would be results. calling it "natural regression" is speculation. 

 

In all cases cited, real results from actual baseball games is used.  The conclusion that natural regression is responsible for the apparent decline is not speculation, but an informed conclusion, arrived at through a comparison between different samples of players, or between different seasons from the same players (depending on the study.)

 

17 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

we know it's a fact that players change their swing in season and/or from season to season. it shouldn't be unrealistic that a player can change their swing in the HR derby as they advance through the rounds in order to advance. 

 

Yes, but the cited studies rule these explanations out by showing that other players not selected for the derby declined at about the same rate, or that players who participated some years and then didn't participate other years declined at about the same rate.  In order for things like "swing change" to be a factor (which was the question you asked) then players who participated would have to decline at a higher rate, and the data -- not projections, predictions, or speculation, but actual data -- shows this did not happen.

 

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

In all cases cited, real results from actual baseball games is used.  The conclusion that natural regression is responsible for the apparent decline is not speculation, but an informed conclusion, arrived at through a comparison between different samples of players, or between different seasons from the same players (depending on the study.)

 

 

Yes, but the cited studies rule these explanations out by showing that other players not selected for the derby declined at about the same rate, or that players who participated some years and then didn't participate other years declined at about the same rate.  In order for things like "swing change" to be a factor (which was the question you asked) then players who participated would have to decline at a higher rate, and the data -- not projections, predictions, or speculation, but actual data -- shows this did not happen.

 

 

a regression in HR doesn't have to be natural. calling it "natural" is speculating that players are just going to perform how they performed in the past, ignoring players that could have changed their swings. players regressing or progressing doesn't have to be natural. only looking at HR from 1st half to 2nd half without looking at other factors like launch angle, FB%, HR/FB then it's speculation.

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My money is on Joc Pederson, batural fly ball swing in a left handed power park.

Bold prediction: "The always intense" Matt Chapman buries Vlad Jr in Round 1.

 

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Looks like civil war hats. Blue against gray. Interesting ASG hat design. 

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Oakland is dropping the price of their field level seats for an upcoming series by $1 for each homer Chapman hits today.

 

 

C'mon, free tickets!!

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Vlad over Alonso. I'll bet 1 imaginary dollar on that  

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2 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Santana taking it home. Book it!

 

He looked good in warm ups. Super easy swing. Balls going out in right field easy peasy. 

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Start the damn thing already!

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