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Prospects Live Top 100 Mid-season Fantasy Prospects

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Billy Hamilton has made me a little gun shy about the X.Edwards types, but Edwards looks to be a little more of a polished hitter at the same points in their careers. In their first season's at A ball Edwards is walking the same amount, striking out half as much, and has a .50 higher batting average with more XBH frequency. Edwards is also a year younger than Hamilton was. The big difference is Hamilton stole 103 bases(caught 20) where Edwards is on pace to steal 40(caught 18). I don't think the base stealing is gonna be a problem for Edwards though, getting on base will decide his future. If he stays in the middle infield and ends up being a .350OBP guy with 40+ steals, he's gotta be a top 3 round pick in fantasy right? Especially considering the trend that SB's are on. 

 

Writing that made me think that sounds a lot like Dee Gordon, and his first year in A ball(2 years older than Edwards) looks a lot like Edwards other than much higher SB totals. Even Gordon's best years he was around 70ish percent success rate on steals, and I don't know if today's analytic driven managers will allow that many attempts at that rate. 

 

So I guess I've come to the conclusion that who knows what Edwards is gonna be worth. You're welcome

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8 hours ago, Weekday Warrior said:

 

There have been sooo many of these toolsey guys over the years who never learn to hit, at this point it is like a lottery ticket. Maybe these guys never got burned by holding onto Anthony Alford for years like I did.

Madrigal seems to be a polarizing figure on fantasy lists, but ranking him in the 80s is aggressive.  Speedy middle infielders have fantasy value even without power, and Madrigal’s .311 avg, 2.4 K% (!!), 8.2 BB% points to a very advanced hitting ability, one of a kind really.

Leaving aside all the raw tools guys they put ahead of Madrigal, what is the devil’s advocate for ranking Xavier Edwards higher?  Similar profile but the lack of power they dinged Madrigal for is an even bigger problem with Edwards.

 

I agree that Edwards should be ranked lower as he has the same skillset that Madrigal possesses (he's much younger though). I'm not arguing that Madrigal is a bad player, I actually think he's going to a really good player and could be a future batting champ. My argument is that even though Adams might not pan out, he is still a better pick for fantasy than Madrigal based on the potential alone. Sure, a ton of these guys miss and never see the majors, but on the other hand you don't want to miss out on prime Carlos Gomez/Matt Kemp tools. You gotta play risky sometimes in fantasy or you lose.

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15 hours ago, Weekday Warrior said:

 

There have been sooo many of these toolsey guys over the years who never learn to hit, at this point it is like a lottery ticket. Maybe these guys never got burned by holding onto Anthony Alford for years like I did.

Madrigal seems to be a polarizing figure on fantasy lists, but ranking him in the 80s is aggressive.  Speedy middle infielders have fantasy value even without power, and Madrigal’s .311 avg, 2.4 K% (!!), 8.2 BB% points to a very advanced hitting ability, one of a kind really.

Leaving aside all the raw tools guys they put ahead of Madrigal, what is the devil’s advocate for ranking Xavier Edwards higher?  Similar profile but the lack of power they dinged Madrigal for is an even bigger problem with Edwards.

 

 

 

 

The age difference is a big deal in Edwards vs Madrigal. 

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Yeah, Edwards is younger...but you'd have to buy into some power potential from Edwards to rank him higher. His ceiling w/o power projection just cannot be any higher than Madrigal. Nick is pretty much the absolute ceiling for a hitter without power projection.

 

I'm guessing its more because Edwards is 3 inches taller, they are giving him that. Age under the assumption there is an outcome he grows into a little more power? Otherwise that is just being a slave to age to level and ignoring skill sets.

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I'm also not sure there isn't a difference in stolen base upside between Madrigal and Edwards. Edwards has had a higher B% and OBP over his minor league career to date. Madrigal's OBP has been in the .350 area whereas Edwards has generally been at or above .400 most of the way. Still both are very small sample sizes, but when the calling card is speed, being on base means opportunity and Edwards has shown more ability at a younger age to get on base at an exceedingly high clip.

Saw someone mention Billy Hamilton earlier.... Hamilton never showed the ability to hit OR walk like Edwards (or Madrigal, obviously) in the minors.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

I'm also not sure there isn't a difference in stolen base upside between Madrigal and Edwards. Edwards has had a higher B% and OBP over his minor league career to date. Madrigal's OBP has been in the .350 area whereas Edwards has generally been at or above .400 most of the way. Still both are very small sample sizes, but when the calling card is speed, being on base means opportunity and Edwards has shown more ability at a younger age to get on base at an exceedingly high clip.

Saw someone mention Billy Hamilton earlier.... Hamilton never showed the ability to hit OR walk like Edwards (or Madrigal, obviously) in the minors.

Billy Hamilton had an over 400 OBP in high A and AA with high walk rates.  Its very difficult for hitters with no power profile to draw a ton of walks against advanced pitching. They have to become an expert at fouling off pitches.

You cant confuse passiveness with actual eye for the K zone. When your feel for contact is as great as Nicks. There is just no reason to be super passive. Especially when pitchers have little reason to pitch around you.

Passive with little power is Garret Hampson's problem. Which you are seeing un-folding now that he's facing Pitchers who can attack him. Despite the fact his eye for the K zone is great. He puts himsef into too many 2 strike counts. 

Edited by Slatykamora
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