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Justin Jackson 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Interesting that you mention workload, because my league gives points for production, not workload. 

 

It was actually weeks 7, 13, 14, and 15. Gordon played in week 12.

We need to talk about production over those 4 weeks Gordon missed, but first some context. You correctly pointed out that Ekeler got way more work. This was especially true in week 7, when Jackson basically didn't play. This is offset by Ekeler not playing in week 15. Both guys were involved in weeks 13 and 14, with the major edge in targets and carries going to Ekeler. Overall, 33 carries and 8 targets for Jackson. 40 carries and 20 targets for Ekeler. That's over twice as many targets, and just over 20% more carries. 

 

So, Ekeler must have been the guy to own in PPR, with how more work he was getting. Exactly how many more fantasy points did he score over those 4 weeks than Jackson? Negative 2... That's right, Jackson scored more fantasy points than Ekeler over that period, despite having significantly less usage. 

Also, in week 16, with Gordon back and Ekeler out, Jackson had 7 catches on 10 targets, so I don't think we should be worried about his ability to be involved in the passing game moving forward. 

 

 

Agreed.  to take 2018 workload split forward like the situation is the same is misleading.   These guys aren’t holding the line waiting for the stud rb to return any week.    This is a new plan where both guys need to be used effectively to keep them fresh.    Ekeler left major doubts when this opportunity arouse last season.  Can’t see them throwing him back again expecting different. 

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Interesting that you mention workload, because my league gives points for production, not workload. 

 

It was actually weeks 7, 13, 14, and 15. Gordon played in week 12.

We need to talk about production over those 4 weeks Gordon missed, but first some context. You correctly pointed out that Ekeler got way more work. This was especially true in week 7, when Jackson basically didn't play. This is offset by Ekeler not playing in week 15. Both guys were involved in weeks 13 and 14, with the major edge in targets and carries going to Ekeler. Overall, 33 carries and 8 targets for Jackson. 40 carries and 20 targets for Ekeler. That's over twice as many targets, and just over 20% more carries. 

 

So, Ekeler must have been the guy to own in PPR, with how more work he was getting. Exactly how many more fantasy points did he score over those 4 weeks than Jackson? Negative 2... That's right, Jackson scored more fantasy points than Ekeler over that period, despite having significantly less usage. 

Also, in week 16, with Gordon back and Ekeler out, Jackson had 7 catches on 10 targets, so I don't think we should be worried about his ability to be involved in the passing game moving forward. 

 

 

Week 7 and 15 aren't comparable. Ekeler was injured week 15. Jackson was healthy week 7.

 

Stat manipulator here to prove a point. The whole premise of what you've done here is based on manipulating stats incorrectly to create a story that fits your narrative. 

 

Fake news. 

 

If you were a yelp review you'd get 0 stars. 

 

Try again. Week 7, 13, and 14... The games they were both healthy and played in without Gordon ekeler outscored 38.5 to 23.1.

 

You know who else JJ outscored besides ekeler in week 15?

 

Every other player that was injured and didn't play lol. 

 

How did Jackson do in the Ravens playoff game last year? I don't remember seeing much of him, but remember all the backs being healthy and the pecking order of touches. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Agreed.  to take 2018 workload split forward like the situation is the same is misleading.   These guys aren’t holding the line waiting for the stud rb to return any week.    This is a new plan where both guys need to be used effectively to keep them fresh.    Ekeler left major doubts when this opportunity arouse last season.  Can’t see them throwing him back again expecting different. 

 

Ekeler isn't meant to be a feature back. 

 

He's a change of pace back and he fills that role well. 

 

No team should use him as their feature back. 

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares

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5 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Ekeler isn't meant to be a feature back. 

 

He's a change of pace back and he fills that role well. 

 

No team should use him as their feature back. 

Oh good we agree.    I want to keep my place on the list of 10 people who aren’t morons...😁

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I believe JJ takes over Ekeler role completely in 2020 and ekeler moves on in FA. 

 

I see JJ being far closer to ekeler than I see Melvin Gordon. 

 

I believe this year I'd rather have ekeler though because he's gonna work his tail off to get his 2nd contract and not phased out of NFL. 

 

He was an UDFA so he's never been paid and is going to leave it all on the line in 2019.

 

I don't see feature back in either of these 2, but I see 2 football players that can contribute in the right situation. 

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37 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Week 7 and 15 aren't comparable. Ekeler was injured week 15. Jackson was healthy week 7.

 

Stat manipulator here to prove a point. The whole premise of what you've done here is based on manipulating stats incorrectly to create a story that fits your narrative. 

 

Fake news. 

 

If you were a yelp review you'd get 0 stars. 

 

Try again. Week 7, 13, and 14... The games they were both healthy and played in without Gordon ekeler outscored 38.5 to 23.1.

 

You know who else JJ outscored besides ekeler in week 15?

 

Every other player that was injured and didn't play lol. 

 

How did Jackson do in the Ravens playoff game last year? I don't remember seeing much of him, but remember all the backs being healthy and the pecking order of touches. 

If we're ignoring week 15, we have ignore week 7, when Jackson was fresh off the practice squad and got 2 carries. That's not any more relevant than the game Ekeler missed. Week 13 and 14 it's 26.7 to 20.7, in favor of Ekeler, who got most of the work. I think that still proves my point that Jackson was more productive on a per touch and per target basis last year. Also, if you watched Chargers games, he just looked like a much better back.

As much as you just sh*t all over my post, we probably agree more than we disagree. If Gordon is playing as a Charger this year, I think Ekeler is the change of pace back and Jackson is getting scraps.

If Gordon is traded or sits out, I think JJ and Ekeler are probably in a near even split with Jackson probably having the slight edge on early downs because of how much more effective he was last year. 

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14 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

If we're ignoring week 15, we have ignore week 7, when Jackson was fresh off the practice squad and got 2 carries. That's not any more relevant than the game Ekeler missed. Week 13 and 14 it's 26.7 to 20.7, in favor of Ekeler, who got most of the work. I think that still proves my point that Jackson was more productive on a per touch and per target basis last year. Also, if you watched Chargers games, he just looked like a much better back.

As much as you just sh*t all over my post, we probably agree more than we disagree. If Gordon is playing as a Charger this year, I think Ekeler is the change of pace back and Jackson is getting scraps.

If Gordon is traded or sits out, I think JJ and Ekeler are probably in a near even split with Jackson probably having the slight edge on early downs because of how much more effective he was last year. 

 

I can't discount or ignore week 7. That's picking and choosing. He was there for a month by that time. 

 

I still believe ekeler is a better player as a COP back. I also feel ekeler played hurt too and that's what many saw as a not explosive player because he is in bursts for sure. It was something new every week with him toward the later part of season. 

 

If anything I'd question Ekeler durability. 

 

But fair enough though. We do seem to agree on their roles and I'll agree with you there. 

 

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Staff seem to seriously like JJ?  As evidenced by what?  Their minimal usage of him last year?

 

When has he looked more capable of grinding it out in short yardage and red zone situations?

 

He had one game with significant work when Ekeler and MG were both out.  He split time with that Newsome loser.  He's slightly better than Newsome.  He played second fiddle to Ekeler last year though when he was healthy.  And they all playing behind MG if he's in.

 

I don't think you watched the San Diego Chargers play football last year honestly.

 

 

He's unemployed a week away from TC.  He's not calling shots.  He's praying for situations to have his name called.  This is it.  He's healthy today, he wouldn't be a long term signing.  He'd be a 1 year stop gap and the long term solution would be found in the 2020 NFL draft most likely or potentially 2020 FA if someone of value can be had cheap.

 

They have worthless backs on their own squad already.  Highly doubt they go fishing for other team's cast offs.  

 

I firmly expect someone like Ajayi or Morris to come in on a 1 year deal if this MG situation starts to look ugly and without resolve.  We see a 3 headed committee with the vet they sign being the lead back sharing time with JJ and Ekeler being solidified in his COP role.

 

Time will tell though, if MG doesn't report by start of season and they haven't signed a vet FA RB then I was clearly wrong.

 

You're basing that all on his rookie year, coming in to an injury situation.

JJ's college play, along with what he was capable of doing when he was used his rookie season, make me think he can handle a different and bigger workload than AE.   No one is saying he's going to come in and replace MG directly.  I said a couple of times it will more likely be a pretty even split with JJ getting more short yardage type situations which he looks fully capable of handling looking over his history of work. 

I don't think its at all surprising that a 7th round pick wasn't fully leaned on his rookie year.  I also don' think it's surprising that AE got used more than they would normally use him in that situation.  People are relegating JJ to a COP role mostly because of his weight. He has the height, he has the frame, he just weighs about 8-10 pounds less than most would like for a heavier workload.  But as I also stated, he is much leaner than most people/players.  His BMI.  He is pretty much all muscle with less fat contributing to his overall weight.  Plus, given his 6ft, larger frame, he still has the capability to add 10-15 pounds of muscle at minimum.  That frame is more conducive to a heavier workload.  He also doesn't shy away from contact and I have always liked what I've seen from him between the tackles going all the way back to college.  

He will now be coming in to his 2nd year with experience and more time to train.

I know they like JJ for a few reasons.  One being what staff has said about him.  Two being the fact that they were ok with him being their main depth at RB, behind a starter than has gotten injured numerous times in his so far short career.  If they didn't like him, they would have very likely added another RB last year.  Not just Newsome.

I don't think we should expect this year to directly replicate last season.  If MG does not return, it will be a different situation than last season, with JJ in his 2nd year.  I don't believe his rookie season was a blueprint for usage the rest of his career, which seems to be the argument being made by some who expect AE to take on the lions share, or expect a different back to come in and move ahead of JJ.

As far as Ajayi, I guess we will see. You're obviously a fan of Ajayi.  I am not. He's also consistently gotten injured.

Edited by brakeyawself
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Most draft community held college against him believe it or not. 

 

Saying they feel he was used too much. 

 

Also said they didn't feel he was good enough to be an every down back because of relative weakness and too easy to bring down. 

 

College stats are cool, but college stats are more misleading than any other stats one can find. 

 

He basically profiles as Austin Ekeler, who was here first, and has had better success even as an UDFA. 

 

I don't like Ajayi either. He's one of just a handful of RB's that are capable of successfully running the football still left in FA though. I keep also mentioning but don't much like Alfred Morris either (except in "Tough Season" he was fantastic). 

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JJ will be fantasy gold this season. Consider yourself lucky if you have him in a dynasty league. He’ll put up numbers similar to James Connor last year

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Posted (edited)
On 7/15/2019 at 4:15 PM, FantasyGuru24 said:

JJ will be fantasy gold this season. Consider yourself lucky if you have him in a dynasty league. He’ll put up numbers similar to James Connor last year

I think that you need to pump the brakes a bit.  Jackson does have a chance to break out, yes, but let's not forget that Ekeler will still see his share of carries because he's too talented.  Conner put up the stats that he did because he was used as a bellcow and didn't have competition for carries.  Jaylen Samuels came on late in the year but he played a lot only because Conner was injured.  If Ekeler is injured then Jackson has an outside chance to be another Conner but if he's healthy, it will probably be a 60/40 - 50/50 split.

Edited by sjm76
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14 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I think that you need to pump the brakes a bit.  Jackson does have a chance to break out, yes, but let's not forget that Ekeler will still see his share of carries because he's too talented.  Conner put up the stats that he did because he was used as a bellcow and didn't have competition for carries.  Jaylen Samuels came on late in the year but he played a lot only because Conner was injured.  If Ekeler is injured then Jackson has an outside chance to be another Conner but if he's healthy, it will probably be a 60/40 - 50/50 split.

True but another consideration is that Ekeler will probably cost you a 9-10 round pick whereas JJ is basically free in drafts.  If you're drafting early and don't know if MG will hold out then JJ is a great stash for the preseason.  If MG reports and resumes his expected bellcow role then you cut JJ before the real season starts and pick up someone else who blew up in preseason.  If MG holds out the entire season then both Ekeler and JJ probably max out at RB2 value, so why not take the guy who's going in the last round instead of the 9th?  Even if Ekeler takes the "lead" role then JJ would still probably be a plausible Flex in most weeks even in the 2nd banana role which I'd take from my last pick in the draft every day. 

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42 minutes ago, jumper said:

True but another consideration is that Ekeler will probably cost you a 9-10 round pick whereas JJ is basically free in drafts.  If you're drafting early and don't know if MG will hold out then JJ is a great stash for the preseason.  If MG reports and resumes his expected bellcow role then you cut JJ before the real season starts and pick up someone else who blew up in preseason.  If MG holds out the entire season then both Ekeler and JJ probably max out at RB2 value, so why not take the guy who's going in the last round instead of the 9th?  Even if Ekeler takes the "lead" role then JJ would still probably be a plausible Flex in most weeks even in the 2nd banana role which I'd take from my last pick in the draft every day. 

 

Agreed-   It’s basically free to draft JJ...for now.   I imagine come late August if MG3 isn’t back and there’s not a positive narrative....he wont be free.    

 

Im not expecting either to be the workhorse MG3 can be tho.   In this offense that’s not a dealbreaker for flex or greater value weekly.  

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Agreed-   It’s basically free to draft JJ...for now.   I imagine come late August if MG3 isn’t back and there’s not a positive narrative....he wont be free.    

 

Im not expecting either to be the workhorse MG3 can be tho.   In this offense that’s not a dealbreaker for flex or greater value weekly.  

 

Yeah like I said in an MG-less backfield I'd be thinking JJ wouldn't reach beyond RB2 value even if Ekeler flamed out and is more of a RB3/Flex value if he splits carries with Eke.  The bigger risk is that if MG does sit out, the Chargers sign someone like Ajayi, Alf Morris, or even Orleans Darkwa that comes in and takes away enough snaps that JJ value goes back into the crapper.  Or the snaps which would have been runs by MG are shifted into a more air-based attack, with 2019 Rivers becoming the 2018 Big Ben whose pass attempts go from around 500 to 675 from the past season to this one.  The Chargers were 17th in the league in passing percentage last year, they could go from 58% to 67% like PIT or GB in a snap since t's not like Rivers doesn't have the receiver and TE weapons to make this happen.  As a fan I'd actually love to watch Rivers cut loose and slinging it with reckless abandon like FitzMagic, that would be one helluva fun show to watch. 

Again, zero risk in any of the above scenarios if you're drafting JJ today as your last round pick.  Very concerning if we're in late August, it looks like MG is going to sit out, and Eke is now going at a 5/6 round ADP and JJ in the 9/10 round area.  

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8 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Agreed-   It’s basically free to draft JJ...for now.   I imagine come late August if MG3 isn’t back and there’s not a positive narrative....he wont be free.    

 

Im not expecting either to be the workhorse MG3 can be tho.   In this offense that’s not a dealbreaker for flex or greater value weekly.  

Yeah, Jackson may go undrafted/still be free in the late July/early August, smaller league drafts but if Gordon is still holding out come mid-August, there will likely be people who have visions of a possible Conner 2.0 scenario and draft Jackson in the 10th-last round area.  

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He's already inched onto the bottom of my RB list. And could climb a bit as time goes on.

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Any Philip Rivers RB is worth owning.  He loves targeting his RB's

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Thinking this might be the guy to own between him and Eckler. Thought he looked pretty good when given the opportunity last season. 

JMHO...

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Seen a few outlets reporting this morning that obviously Melvin Gordon isn't in camp yet, however people expect this could easily drag out into the regular season as apparently the 2 sides aren't close.

Ekeler starting camp as the #1 it seems, but I can't imagine they ride him like a workhorse.  Things will obviously change the longer Gordon holds out and the closer we get to the season, but right now Ekeler has ADP of RB40, and Jackson way lower at RB62.  I thought it would be a lot closer than that.  Guys like Rex Burkhead, Devin Singletary, Justice Hill getting drafted ahead of Jackson.  

If Gordon does in deed miss time, I imagine this will look somewhat like a 50/50 timeshare and in an offense like LA's, even a 50% market share should be very fruitful for someone drafted as RB62.  I understand Ekeler is technically the next man up, but it seems like people are straight ignoring Jackson.

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Posted (edited)

Two years ago I drafted Conner in round 21 for nothing.

Last year I drafted Conner in round 21 and he won me the 'ship.

 

Last year I drafted JJ in round 19 for nothing.

This year I will draft JJ and...

tenor.gif?itemid=11140147

 

Edited by thebadferret
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55 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

Two years ago I drafted Conner in round 21 for nothing.

Last year I drafted Conner in round 21 and he won me the 'ship.

 

Last year I drafted JJ in round 19 for nothing.

This year I will draft JJ and...

tenor.gif?itemid=11140147

 

 

Wait... wait... I know this one.... ummm Eddy Lacy?

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, The G Man said:

Thinking this might be the guy to own between him and Eckler. Thought he looked pretty good when given the opportunity last season. 

JMHO...

 

I think so as well. The scary thing will be if MG holdout extends into the regular season, will we have a week 14 scenario where his touches were surprisingly limited and Eck dominated the playing time or will he get the opportunity like he did in week 15. 

His ADP currently sitting in the 13th round is criminal. On value alone, instead of using a 7th round pick on Eck you can wait until the 12th and snatch JJ. Jackson showed what he can do in with extended work and the Chargers offense is still explosive. I can definitely envision a scenario where Eck continues his traditional role in the offense and it's JJ that is thrusted into the MG role.

Edited by nonstopfan
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https://www.chargers.com/news/five-takeaways-from-day-7-of-chargers-camp-first-joint-practice-is-in-the-books

 

When Justin Jackson was selected by the Chargers in the seventh round of the 2018 NFL Draft, much was made about his prowess toting the rock. Afterall, he left Northwestern as the school’s all-time rushing leader. 

But what some people may not have realized is as good as Jackson was carrying the ball, he also was adept at catching passes as he set career highs his senior season in receptions (44) and receiving yards (276).

“He’s always had good hands,” Lynn remarked of Jackson. “Coming out of Northwestern, he had good hands. I used him last year on the scout team as a wide receiver some days just to develop his skillset. (WR Coach) Phil’s (McGeoghan) done a good job with him when he’s worked with the receivers. He’s a good receiver and he’s a guy we can use out of the backfield for sure.”

In practice, Jackson snared in two nice passes from Philip Rivers. One, good for a TD.

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