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Austin Ekeler 2019 Outlook

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I'm gonna be watching this Gordon situation play out and keep an eye on AEs ADP during this process. 

 

This is the back I'd prefer to have if anything goofy happened. 

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13 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

This is the back I'd prefer to have if anything goofy happened. 

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If Gordon's absence extends into the regular season, it will likely be a committee with Ekeler and Justin Jackson.  I like Ekeler a lot but not sure that he can take an every-down pounding because of his size and I think the Chargers coaches feel the same.

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1 hour ago, sjm76 said:

If Gordon's absence extends into the regular season, it will likely be a committee with Ekeler and Justin Jackson.  I like Ekeler a lot but not sure that he can take an every-down pounding because of his size and I think the Chargers coaches feel the same.

 

Google has Ekeler at 5'10 201, is that not accurate? Lots of RBs are around that size.

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26 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Google has Ekeler at 5'10 201, is that not accurate? Lots of RBs are around that size.

 

At his pro day, Ekeler measured in at 5'8" and 5/8

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Gordon missed 3 games last year, weeks 13 through 15 and Austin Ekeler in a lead role looked awful. He started week 13, and 14. And proceeded to get injured in the process. Not bellcow material if you ask me. For me Justin Jackson would be the more intriguing RB if Gordon were to miss some game..And that being said, I want no shares of that RBBC. Both IMO would be mediocre.. 

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4 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Google has Ekeler at 5'10 201, is that not accurate? Lots of RBs are around that size.

Rotoworld and other sites have been known to overexaggerate player heights adding an inch or 2 to their actual height.  Ekeler is more like 5'8"-5'9" as stated by the other poster.  A good comp for Ekeler, I think, is Brian Westbrook who was a rb for the Philadelphia Eagles in the early 2000's.

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16 hours ago, sjm76 said:

Rotoworld and other sites have been known to overexaggerate player heights adding an inch or 2 to their actual height.  Ekeler is more like 5'8"-5'9" as stated by the other poster.  A good comp for Ekeler, I think, is Brian Westbrook who was a rb for the Philadelphia Eagles in the early 2000's.

 

Westbrook was a 3 down back. And an awesome one at that.

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8 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Westbrook was a 3 down back. And an awesome one at that.

Well you never know, then.  Ekeler could turn into the same thing but it's more likely that it will be a committee with him and Jackson unless Ekeler really averages a high ypc with his carries.  Phillip Lindsay of Denver is smaller and came out of nowhere to take the majority of the carries for them last year so you never know, Ekeler could also break out.

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2 hours ago, sjm76 said:

Well you never know, then.  Ekeler could turn into the same thing but it's more likely that it will be a committee with him and Jackson unless Ekeler really averages a high ypc with his carries.  Phillip Lindsay of Denver is smaller and came out of nowhere to take the majority of the carries for them last year so you never know, Ekeler could also break out.

 

Lindsay is listed at 2 inches smaller than Ekeler.

 

Im not saying Ekelers gonna be a stud, but  the jury is out on how much of a workload he can handle IMO.

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Isn’t josh Jackson smaller than ekeler lol? AE produced with MG, I think he would produce just fine without him

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I think the best case scenario for Ekeler (if Gordon misses significant time) is the lead back in a true RBBC with maybe a low-end RB2 ceiling. It's not a situation I'd be inclined to involve myself with from a fantasy perspective, but where does his ADP ascend to if the Gordon situation deteriorates any further? 

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On 7/20/2019 at 9:32 PM, SenatorSpaceman said:

I think the best case scenario for Ekeler (if Gordon misses significant time) is the lead back in a true RBBC with maybe a low-end RB2 ceiling. It's not a situation I'd be inclined to involve myself with from a fantasy perspective, but where does his ADP ascend to if the Gordon situation deteriorates any further? 

 

best case scenario is ekeler leads the timeshare 70:30, solid RB2 numbers weekly.

worst case scenario involves some out-of-the-box thinking...

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Starting to sound like the back to own in the Chargers backfield...

Austin Ekeler took the opening reps with the first-team offense when the Chargers opened training camp Thursday.

Many around the fantasy community seem to be writing Ekeler off a bit in favor of Justin Jackson, but Ekeler has always been the clear No. 2 for the Bolts. Gordon missed four games last season, and Ekeler had touch counts of 17, 18, and 17 in three contests before missing the fourth one as well. Despite the Jackson love, it's very clearly been Ekeler as the 1A when Gordon has missed time. Ekeler was No. 5 in yards per carry among qualified runners last season and registered Pro Football Focus' No. 6 elusive rating at the position among 56 qualifiers. He's also functional in the passing game with 66 catches in two NFL seasons. Ekeler is the back to own right now for L.A. with Gordon's holdout expected to be "prolonged" and spill into the season.

Jul 26, 2019, 9:16 AM ET

 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, The G Man said:

Starting to sound like the back to own in the Chargers backfield...

Austin Ekeler took the opening reps with the first-team offense when the Chargers opened training camp Thursday.

Many around the fantasy community seem to be writing Ekeler off a bit in favor of Justin Jackson, but Ekeler has always been the clear No. 2 for the Bolts. Gordon missed four games last season, and Ekeler had touch counts of 17, 18, and 17 in three contests before missing the fourth one as well. Despite the Jackson love, it's very clearly been Ekeler as the 1A when Gordon has missed time. Ekeler was No. 5 in yards per carry among qualified runners last season and registered Pro Football Focus' No. 6 elusive rating at the position among 56 qualifiers. He's also functional in the passing game with 66 catches in two NFL seasons. Ekeler is the back to own right now for L.A. with Gordon's holdout expected to be "prolonged" and spill into the season.

Jul 26, 2019, 9:16 AM ET

 

I wouldn't read too much into that as it isn't even August yet.  I like Ekeler more than Jackson but Ekeler is another guy who was previously viewed as mainly a 3rd down back.  It isn't out of the question that he could be the starter similar to how Phillip Lindsay who is even smaller than Ekeler emerged for Denver last year but Jackson also looked good when he started last year and he is bigger.

Edited by sjm76

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Ekeler, unlike D Williams, actually is a third down/scat back. He follows the classic efficiency track of that type of RB when given the lead position in a backfield.

 

Last season as the scat back, Ekeler was very efficient, averaging in the 1.20 FPPT range. But given starting volume for 3 weeks, he cratered in a major way, regressing all the way down to only 0.88 FPPT, despite high target/receiving volume, which usually props this number way up for scat backs.

 

What this tells us is that he thrives in the role of pass catching RB and is not horrible, but definitely below average as a starter. 

 

Compared to another hot situation with D Williams in KC, it looks really bad. D Williams, when given starting volume, actually improved from his time being misused as a backup or pass catching RB from elite efficiency(also 1.20 FPPT +-), to all time historically elite efficiency and production numbers when given starting role and volume(1.35 FPPT).

 

Unlike the many years long sample size we have of D Williams performing well in the role, it IS only a small sample size for Ekeler, so it could be argued. But from the eye test and the numbers we do have it looks like he isn’t a fit as an effective high volume starter.

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27 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Despite the fumble, looked real good last night...

 

yes but the fumble simply muddies the water as far as the RB situation goes, still bad in the sense that it is one step closer to full rbbc between him and jackson, which isn't good for anyone's fantasy team, the 2 guys will kill each others value

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28 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Despite the fumble, looked real good last night...

He did, but Justin Jackson also had a good game.  It remains to be seen how much both will be used.

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3 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

He did, but Justin Jackson also had a good game.  It remains to be seen how much both will be used.

 

Probably 50/50, or even 40/60 in favor of Jackson.

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7 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

yes but the fumble simply muddies the water as far as the RB situation goes, still bad in the sense that it is one step closer to full rbbc between him and jackson, which isn't good for anyone's fantasy team, the 2 guys will kill each others value

Doubt it.   Gordon and Ekeler had weekly value last season.   As long as u have Rivers there’s buku fantasy love for rbs. 

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In truth, Ekeler should probably be used about 65-70% of the time. 

Justin Jackson, to me, is JAG. He's not good, he's not bad...He's just...there.

If I'm the Chargers, I'm giving Ekeler 10-12 carries a game, and his typical 5-7 targets out of the backfield.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

 

If I'm the Chargers, I'm giving Ekeler 10-12 carries a game, and his typical 5-7 targets out of the backfield.

That sounds reasonable for Ekeler- but more like a 50/50 split.    Leaves 12-16 carries for JJ.  LAC averaged 25 runs per game in 2018.

Edited by Impreza178

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

That sounds reasonable for Ekeler- but more like a 50/50 split.    Leaves 12-16 carries for JJ.  LAC averaged 25 runs per game in 2018.

 

Yeah that seems fair.

 

Justin Jackson, at least to me, feels like a 16-60-0 kind of guy...maybe lucks into a TD here and there.

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