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Austin Ekeler 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

 

Yeah that seems fair.

 

Justin Jackson, at least to me, feels like a 16-60-0 kind of guy...maybe lucks into a TD here and there.

Well I don’t agree with you there but time will tell.   

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Well I don’t agree with you there but time will tell.   

 

I guess, to me, JJ's value is capped by Ekeler.

Unless Ekeler gets injured, JJ won't be putting up big numbers.

 

With Ekeler healthy, JJ seems like a 15-50 kind of guy, with maybe 2-3 catches for 20 yards.

Without Ekeler, I think JJ could be a 20-80-0 / 4-35-0 kind of guy.

 

We'll have to wait and see.

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On 7/12/2019 at 2:47 PM, sjm76 said:

 A good comp for Ekeler, I think, is Brian Westbrook who was a rb for the Philadelphia Eagles in the early 2000's.

Makes me feel old when you have to explain who Brian Westbrook was....

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He’s going to be this years James Conner 

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1 minute ago, rhg1084 said:

He’s going to be this years James Conner 

Where does Ekelr's ADP go now that MG3 is going to wait it out?

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6 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

 

I got my money on Justin Jackson

 

Chargers like Ekeler better, Jackson will be the backup

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1 minute ago, rhg1084 said:

 

Chargers like Ekeler better, Jackson will be the backup

Maybe they do. But Ekeler fell flat on his face when given the lead role. 

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Jackson is a much better talent than Ekeler honestly. When Gordon got hurt last year, Ekeler choked when given the opportunity. Ekeler will probably start the first few weeks, but don't be surprised if the roles reverse. 

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9 hours ago, oresteszero said:

Jackson is a much better talent than Ekeler honestly. When Gordon got hurt last year, Ekeler choked when given the opportunity. Ekeler will probably start the first few weeks, but don't be surprised if the roles reverse. 

 

Wasn't Ekeler hurt?  In ppr I'm still siding with Ekeler over Jackson.

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9 hours ago, oresteszero said:

Jackson is a much better talent than Ekeler honestly. When Gordon got hurt last year, Ekeler choked when given the opportunity. Ekeler will probably start the first few weeks, but don't be surprised if the roles reverse. 

 

So many bitter people who started Ekeler on that SNF game vs PIT last year and that's all they remember. SMH.

 

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These were the stat lines from the three games in which Gordon was out AND both Ekeler and Jackson played...

--Week 7 vs Tennessee
Ekeler: 12 carries for 42 yards & 5 catches for 26 yards (68 total yards)
Jackson: 2 carries for 3 yards & 1 catch for 11 yards (14 total yards)

--Week 13 vs Pittsburgh
Ekeler: 13 carries for 21 yards & 5 catches for 22 yards (43 total yards)
Jackson: 8 carries for 63 yards (1 TD) & 1 catch for 19 yards (82 total yards & the 1 TD)

--Week 14 vs Cincinnati
Ekeler: 15 carries for 66 yards (1 TD) & 2 catches for 28 yards (94 total yards & the 1 TD)
Jackson: 7 carries for 12 yards & 2 catches for 23 yards (35 total yards)

So for those who say that Ekeler was a total bust when Gordon was out...the stats say otherwise. 
In Week 7, Ekeler was average. He didn't really hurt or help your fantasy team. Jackson didn't play much and was a non-factor.
In Week 13, Ekeler was indeed a bust. Jackson clearly had the better game.
In Week 14, Ekeler was pretty good, helped your fantasy team and clearly outplayed Jackson, who was a bust.

It's true that Ekeler did get hurt during Week 14 and thus missed Weeks 15 & 16. He came back for 17 though, and rushed 8 for 58 and a TD (no catches). Gordon was also back by then and so all 3 RB's played in the game. Jackson rushed 6 for 10 (no catches), so was again a bust.

So in the 4 total games that Ekeler and Jackson played together, while Gordon was either out or being eased back in...
Ekeler: 48 carries for 187 yards (2 TD) & 12 catches for 76 yards (263 total yards & the 2 TD's)
Jackson: 23 carries for 88 yards (1 TD) & 4 catches for 53 yards (141 total yards & the 1 TD)

Just wanted to put the actual stats out there, for those to make of them what they will.

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If the debate is centered around a PPR league, Ekeler's got an amazing floor there.   I'm not sure why, in 2019, people's reviews of backs focus on their ability to bellcow.  There's what, 5 of those in the league at best?   If Ekeler's even 50/50 in a good offense, the amount of catches he'll put up will make him a clear value and an RB2.    Last year, he was able to be flexed often even when Gordon played.   I had a team with a huge RB hole that won, a lot, and I started Ek more than any other back, it was never a question.   

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Corleone said:

These were the stat lines from the three games in which Gordon was out AND both Ekeler and Jackson played...

--Week 7 vs Tennessee
Ekeler: 12 carries for 42 yards & 5 catches for 26 yards (68 total yards)
Jackson: 2 carries for 3 yards & 1 catch for 11 yards (14 total yards)

--Week 13 vs Pittsburgh
Ekeler: 13 carries for 21 yards & 5 catches for 22 yards (43 total yards)
Jackson: 8 carries for 63 yards (1 TD) & 1 catch for 19 yards (82 total yards & the 1 TD)

--Week 14 vs Cincinnati
Ekeler: 15 carries for 66 yards (1 TD) & 2 catches for 28 yards (94 total yards & the 1 TD)
Jackson: 7 carries for 12 yards & 2 catches for 23 yards (35 total yards)

So for those who say that Ekeler was a total bust when Gordon was out...the stats say otherwise. 
In Week 7, Ekeler was average. He didn't really hurt or help your fantasy team. Jackson didn't play much and was a non-factor.
In Week 13, Ekeler was indeed a bust. Jackson clearly had the better game.
In Week 14, Ekeler was pretty good, helped your fantasy team and clearly outplayed Jackson, who was a bust.

It's true that Ekeler did get hurt during Week 14 and thus missed Weeks 15 & 16. He came back for 17 though, and rushed 8 for 58 and a TD (no catches). Gordon was also back by then and so all 3 RB's played in the game. Jackson rushed 6 for 10 (no catches), so was again a bust.

So in the 4 total games that Ekeler and Jackson played together, while Gordon was either out or being eased back in...
Ekeler: 48 carries for 187 yards (2 TD) & 12 catches for 76 yards (263 total yards & the 2 TD's)
Jackson: 23 carries for 88 yards (1 TD) & 4 catches for 53 yards (141 total yards & the 1 TD)

Just wanted to put the actual stats out there, for those to make of them what they will.

 

Fair enough-  if you restrict the type of qualifying stats enough...and then squint...Ekelers stints as lead back aren’t AS bad.  

Over 5 ypc for season drops to 3.87 just in your 4 cherrypicked games.   MG was over 5 as the lead back in 12 games.  JJ was over 4 as a rookie scraping together a few carries here and there.  

I can’t see how anyone who watched these games has Ekeler as a lead back.  He can threaten Rb2 and be very effective in his COP role.   He is what he is— vs Jackson who we haven’t seen his full potential yet. 

Edited by Impreza178

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, BrianM said:

If the debate is centered around a PPR league, Ekeler's got an amazing floor there.   I'm not sure why, in 2019, people's reviews of backs focus on their ability to bellcow.  There's what, 5 of those in the league at best?   If Ekeler's even 50/50 in a good offense, the amount of catches he'll put up will make him a clear value and an RB2.    Last year, he was able to be flexed often even when Gordon played.   I had a team with a huge RB hole that won, a lot, and I started Ek more than any other back, it was never a question.   

To your point, Ekeler was the #25 overall RB in the 1 point PPR league I was in (and I would think the ranking would be similar for most leagues). That was with Gordon getting 225 touches (175 carries and 50 catches). If Gordon doesn't play and those touches are up for grabs, even if Ekeler got just half of them added to his 2018 volume, he'd be an easy RB2 (at least) in 2019.

Also, Ekeler's efficiency could drop but additional volume would more than make up for that. Melvin Gordon is a perfect example of that. He was under 4 yards a carry every year in the league up until 2018...

Edited by Corleone

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Fair enough-  if you restrict the type of qualifying stats enough...and then squint...Ekelers stints as lead back aren’t AS bad.  

Over 5 ypc for season drops to 3.87 just in your 4 cherrypicked games.   MG was over 5 as the lead back.  JJ was over 4 as a rookie scraping together a few carries here and there.  

I can’t see how anyone who watched these games sees Ekeler as a lead back.  He can threaten Rb2 and be very effective in his COP role.   He is what he is— vs Jackson who we haven’t seen his full potential yet. 

I picked those games because those are the only games in which Ekeler and Jackson both got to play together, either without Gordon playing at all or with Gordon just having come back from injury and gearing up for the playoffs.

Ekeler's YPC in those games was 3.90 and Jackson's was 3.83. 

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26 minutes ago, Corleone said:

--Week 13 vs Pittsburgh
Ekeler: 13 carries for 21 yards & 5 catches for 22 yards (43 total yards)
Jackson: 8 carries for 63 yards (1 TD) & 1 catch for 19 yards (82 total yards & the 1 TD)

--Week 14 vs Cincinnati
Ekeler: 15 carries for 66 yards (1 TD) & 2 catches for 28 yards (94 total yards & the 1 TD)
Jackson: 7 carries for 12 yards & 2 catches for 23 yards (35 total yards)

This doesn't affect their 2019 outlook per se, but Jackson also probably helped contribute to some fantasy owners getting eliminated from the playoffs. After his strong Week 13 (and Ekeler having a bad game), there were a lot of owners who threw Jackson out there in the first round of the playoffs...and he cratered. At least Ekeler's bad game in 13 was before playoffs started.

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Just now, Corleone said:

I picked those games because those are the only games in which Ekeler and Jackson both got to play together, either without Gordon playing at all or with Gordon just having come back from injury and gearing up for the playoffs.

Ekeler's YPC in those games was 3.90 and Jackson's was 3.83. 

 

Awful- bottom line.   They couldn’t run the ball with Ekeler and no one respected it.   Jackson was the lead back only 1 game-  we have no sample to draw off and he was a rookie lol.   One game of double digit carries all year.   

 

Im not sure what you’re trying to prove other than the running game was non existent without Gordon.   Zero bearing on who they roll out as the lead back in 2019 without Melvin.  

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

 

Awful- bottom line.   They couldn’t run the ball with Ekeler and no one respected it.   Jackson was the lead back only 1 game-  we have no sample to draw off and he was a rookie lol.   One game of double digit carries all year.   

 

Im not sure what you’re trying to prove other than the running game was non existent without Gordon.   Zero bearing on who they roll out as the lead back in 2019 without Melvin.  

You are the one who first mentioned YPC, not me.

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9 minutes ago, Corleone said:

You are the one who first mentioned YPC, not me.

 

All good man.  we know what AE does well- and what he’s not built for.   JJ is an unknown quantity but has the build and needs opportunity.  He is no lock either,  but allows Ekeker to do what he does so well- the Woodhead role.   

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

All good man.  we know what AE does well- and what he’s not built for.   JJ is an unknown quantity but has the build and needs opportunity.  He is no lock either,  but allows Ekeker to do what he does so well- the Woodhead role.   

Ditto and I hear you as far as JJ's possibilities. I think Ekeler has the ability to surpass a Woodhead role, but even if that's his ceiling, I'm looking forward to having him on my team in 2019 (even if Gordon does end his holdout) :) 

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42 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Fair enough-  if you restrict the type of qualifying stats enough...and then squint...Ekelers stints as lead back aren’t AS bad.  

Over 5 ypc for season drops to 3.87 just in your 4 cherrypicked games.   MG was over 5 as the lead back.  JJ was over 4 as a rookie scraping together a few carries here and there.  

I can’t see how anyone who watched these games sees Ekeler as a lead back.  He can threaten Rb2 and be very effective in his COP role.   He is what he is— vs Jackson who we haven’t seen his full potential yet. 

 

I'll have to agree with this. Last year I can recall Lynn stating that Eckler began to wear down in week 13/14 with the increased workload versus Cincy and PItt. He eventually got hurt and put into concussion protocol and missed the big divisional game against KC where JJ compiled 83 total yards and a TD. I would worry about Eck sustaining a full workload over an extended amount of time.

Also, with JJ, If you followed the situation with MG, Eck and JJ week over week when MG was hurting, there was a feeling that Lynn didn't fully trust JJ just yet. There was even some positive JJ coach speak that he didn't fully follow through on. I think with a year in the system and now getting work with first team, I think it becomes less a question of trust. JJ proved that he has the skills in college to be a winner.

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Ekeler had a pretty safe floor as a flex play last year WITH Melvin Gordon getting the lion's share of snaps.

To me, it's ludicrous to think that he won't be a safe RB2 with Gordon sitting, even if he's in a timeshare with Justin Jackson.

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My problem with Eckler is he is going too high since Gordon could sign at anytime. I know Bell held out all year but when is the last time besides Bell that top player say out all year? 

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