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brockpapersizer

Prospects 365 Midseason Top 200

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Some general thoughts I had after take a brief look at this.

  • I like that they upped some of the youngsters who now have performance to back up their tools (Robinson/Valera/Ronny/Luciano all come to mind)
  • Kyle Tucker at 3 is a bit confusing, but I'll admit I haven't dont too much homework on him anyway and can't argue the intricacies of where in the top 10 he should be ranked.
  • The toolsy Heliot Ramos is finally getting some love after being undermined for being a "high risk" guy.
  • The Brendan Rodgers drop is substantial, barely ranking in the top 50 after a so-so MLB debut.
  • Alejandro Pie being ranked anywhere on this list is the biggest head scratcher so far. 17/18 year old doing average in DSL. What's special about this? 40 FV guy on Fangraphs (although that's only one site's opinion). I don't see what separates him from any other DSL standout as he's not even stateside. 
  • Joey Cantillo is getting love from everywhere after being a nobody heading into this season.
  • Wilderd Patino at 175 is also confusing like Pie, although Patino is at least in Arizona.
  • ...Juan Pie too? 

So essentially I guess I started off writing that thinking it was awesome some youngsters were getting some top 20-30 hype because they were so young against their competition, but now I find the list somewhat perplexing. Alejandro Pie/Patino/Juan Pie are probably borderline guys in leagues with 500 prospects, let alone in the 100-200 range.

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Brennan Davis is the highest I've seen him ranked, but I think by year's end it will be justified.  He's still flying under the radar, but has monster tools and has the ability to hit for high average and his k/bb ratios are also really good.  

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2 minutes ago, Maxcd99 said:

Some general thoughts I had after take a brief look at this.

  • I like that they upped some of the youngsters who now have performance to back up their tools (Robinson/Valera/Ronny/Luciano all come to mind)

 

I'm glad about this too. Take some swings. Too many lists are age-ist in that they will consistently rank AA or AAA guys higher than the Low-A, Rookie Ball guys.

 

Plant your flag

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2 hours ago, Maxcd99 said:

Some general thoughts I had after take a brief look at this.

  • I like that they upped some of the youngsters who now have performance to back up their tools (Robinson/Valera/Ronny/Luciano all come to mind)
  • Kyle Tucker at 3 is a bit confusing, but I'll admit I haven't dont too much homework on him anyway and can't argue the intricacies of where in the top 10 he should be ranked.
  • The toolsy Heliot Ramos is finally getting some love after being undermined for being a "high risk" guy.
  • The Brendan Rodgers drop is substantial, barely ranking in the top 50 after a so-so MLB debut.
  • Alejandro Pie being ranked anywhere on this list is the biggest head scratcher so far. 17/18 year old doing average in DSL. What's special about this? 40 FV guy on Fangraphs (although that's only one site's opinion). I don't see what separates him from any other DSL standout as he's not even stateside. 
  • Joey Cantillo is getting love from everywhere after being a nobody heading into this season.
  • Wilderd Patino at 175 is also confusing like Pie, although Patino is at least in Arizona.
  • ...Juan Pie too? 

So essentially I guess I started off writing that thinking it was awesome some youngsters were getting some top 20-30 hype because they were so young against their competition, but now I find the list somewhat perplexing. Alejandro Pie/Patino/Juan Pie are probably borderline guys in leagues with 500 prospects, let alone in the 100-200 range.

 

I think I agree with a lot of this, glad to have bought low on Ramos and picked up Cantillo in a few leagues.  I like Tucker, whether he should be 3rd or 7th, I don't think it matters too much. I want to see him get everyday PAs somewhere in the big soon, might not be until next year sadly. 

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2 hours ago, Maxcd99 said:

Some general thoughts I had after take a brief look at this.

  • I like that they upped some of the youngsters who now have performance to back up their tools (Robinson/Valera/Ronny/Luciano all come to mind)
  • Kyle Tucker at 3 is a bit confusing, but I'll admit I haven't dont too much homework on him anyway and can't argue the intricacies of where in the top 10 he should be ranked.
  • The toolsy Heliot Ramos is finally getting some love after being undermined for being a "high risk" guy.
  • The Brendan Rodgers drop is substantial, barely ranking in the top 50 after a so-so MLB debut.
  • Alejandro Pie being ranked anywhere on this list is the biggest head scratcher so far. 17/18 year old doing average in DSL. What's special about this? 40 FV guy on Fangraphs (although that's only one site's opinion). I don't see what separates him from any other DSL standout as he's not even stateside. 
  • Joey Cantillo is getting love from everywhere after being a nobody heading into this season.
  • Wilderd Patino at 175 is also confusing like Pie, although Patino is at least in Arizona.
  • ...Juan Pie too? 

So essentially I guess I started off writing that thinking it was awesome some youngsters were getting some top 20-30 hype because they were so young against their competition, but now I find the list somewhat perplexing. Alejandro Pie/Patino/Juan Pie are probably borderline guys in leagues with 500 prospects, let alone in the 100-200 range.

The talent difference at that point is very minimal and subjective. Pie and Patino are pure projection. Fantasy is more high risk upside oriented then RL. Fangraphs giving a guy FV40 before he ever plays a pro game is actually pretty good and that he is relevant/worth keeping an eye on.

The difference between who you have at 150 and 300 isn't much of anything. Nor should dis-miss 17-18 year olds just because you haven't "heard of them yet" 

But if you are wondering. Pie is 6'4 SS with above average speed and Patino has a great feel for hard contact with above average speed. Not saying I'd have them in my personal top 200, but i know talent level plateaus when you are ranking that deep. They have upside, that is really all that matters.

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Logan Gilbert with a massive (much deserved) bump. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

The talent difference at that point is very minimal and subjective. Pie and Patino are pure projection. Fantasy is more high risk upside oriented then RL. Fangraphs giving a guy FV40 before he ever plays a pro game is actually pretty good and that he is relevant/worth keeping an eye on.

The difference between who you have at 150 and 300 isn't much of anything. Nor should dis-miss 17-18 year olds just because you haven't "heard of them yet" 

But if you are wondering. Pie is 6'4 SS with above average speed and Patino has a great feel for hard contact with above average speed. Not saying I'd have them in my personal top 200, but i know talent level plateaus when you are ranking that deep. They have upside, that is really all that matters.

I definitely would contend that there's a big difference between 150 and 300. Pretty much most '18 and '17 first round picks have comparable upside to the Pies and Patino and there's lots of other guys in the high(er) minors that I'd rather have shares of. I feel like it's like getting hyped over Luisangel Acuna except both Pies have been scouted as having better tools. 

 

I don't want to get into anecdotes since they're obviously not indicative of all situations, but in a league I'm in with ~750 prospects owned, Patino was added about two weeks ago (by me), Alejandro a few days ago (not me), and Juan remains unowned. Fantrax is known for its super deep databases and for most leagues being keeper/dynasty oriented and both Pies are at 2% ownership and Patino is at 3%.

 

I'm not trying to say Patino and both Pies will be useless fantasy assets once they're called up a near half decade from now, but it is immensely aggressive to put them in the top 100-200 range.

Edited by Maxcd99
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1 hour ago, rasto21585 said:

Whoa Seth Beer is ranked way too low 

I think this might be because of his lack of defensive value. Only a guess, but that's the likeliest reason.

Just to clarify, I think there's an important distinction of Pie/Patino. I think I mentioned above that Joey Cantillo is doing amazing and is deservedly launching up rankings after roughing up A ball. He tore up the Arizona league too but no one was really paying attention since doing that isn't as impressive.

It's good to keep an eye on guys such as Pie/Patino just so that if they start crushing in A-/A then people need to jump aboard immediately. Julio/Valera were top 10 guys in their international class according to Fangraphs*. A. Pie was ranked 18th and Patino/Juan Pie were unranked. It's important to keep an eye on these guys in case they demolish minor league pitching during their second seasons, but for now, DSL high achievers are a dime a dozen and there are very very few leagues that you need to roster the hot bats playing there.  I give more credit to Patino for doing it in Arizona and if he continues in A-/A then his stock (or the Pies) will skyrocket. But until then he's just another guy. Jhon Torres did great in Arizona/GCL last season but fell flat in A ball. He's not immediately worth it because of that, but it's clear he's no Valera/Julio Rodriguez and shouldn't be valued as such. I think this same way of thinking should be applied to Patino/Pie

 

tl;dr: Upside prospects can soar in value quickly but ranking them prematurely is a disservice. Monitor these guys for next season but don't treat them as if they have already realized their upside.

 

*I only cite fangraphs often because they have a wealth of information for free, not because they're better than other sources

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Posted (edited)

who the hell is jason dominguez. NYY # 46 on the list ahead of Deivi Garcia

 

hes 16 years old?

 

edit: just looked it up.  hes not even signed with the yanks yet 

Edited by jfazz23

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8 hours ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

 

I'm glad about this too. Take some swings. Too many lists are age-ist in that they will consistently rank AA or AAA guys higher than the Low-A, Rookie Ball guys.

 

Plant your flag

 

AA is the proving ground though.  That's where your hitting prospects usually prove what they really are capable of especially the guys with questionable hit tools/plate discipline.

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7 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

who the hell is jason dominguez. NYY # 46 on the list ahead of Deivi Garcia

 

hes 16 years old?

 

He was the highest ranked July signing guy this year.   Looks like a beast on video and in workouts but no one has really seen him in any sort of games.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

The talent difference at that point is very minimal and subjective. Pie and Patino are pure projection. Fantasy is more high risk upside oriented then RL. Fangraphs giving a guy FV40 before he ever plays a pro game is actually pretty good and that he is relevant/worth keeping an eye on.

The difference between who you have at 150 and 300 isn't much of anything. Nor should dis-miss 17-18 year olds just because you haven't "heard of them yet" 

But if you are wondering. Pie is 6'4 SS with above average speed and Patino has a great feel for hard contact with above average speed. Not saying I'd have them in my personal top 200, but i know talent level plateaus when you are ranking that deep. They have upside, that is really all that matters.

 

Just a general comment on Patino who I've been tracking this year.   Small sample size of 69 plate appearances but 22 ks and zero walks isn't a good start despite the .523 slugging.

 

Having said that he just turned  17 so he's a continue to track very closely guy. 

Edited by 96mnc

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Padres have 12, after graduating 5 from the top 200 preseason

surprised Andres Munoz isnt on the list

and I know hes 24 and all, but Ty France is at least one of the top 200 minor leaguers in the game

 

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

who the hell is jason dominguez. NYY # 46 on the list ahead of Deivi Garcia

 

hes 16 years old?

 

edit: just looked it up.  hes not even signed with the yanks yet 

 

I think he did sign. potentially next year's Luciano.  Be excited.

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45 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I think he did sign. potentially next year's Luciano.  Be excited.

It's Jasson, but this kid is a switch hitting SS w/ serious power. Also (@ 16 years young mind you) would be the fastest guy in the MLB right now. So yeah, the #46 ranking seems legit from the video and scouting reports I've seen. Dynasty GOLD!!!!!!!

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1 minute ago, LarryChip10 said:

It's Jasson, but this kid is a switch hitting SS w/ serious power. Also (@ 16 years young mind you) would be the fastest guy in the MLB right now. So yeah, the #46 ranking seems legit from the video and scouting reports I've seen. Dynasty GOLD!!!!!!!

 

Yeah but he is on HGH big time, no 16 yrs old can look like that naturally lmao lets wait and see when he is out of the juice how he will perform. Juan Soto took the same thing but he's got elite batting eye so it doesn't matter

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, LivingOnTheEdge said:

 

Yeah but he is on HGH big time, no 16 yrs old can look like that naturally lmao lets wait and see when he is out of the juice how he will perform. Juan Soto took the same thing but he's got elite batting eye so it doesn't matter

No disrespect, but are you his dealer? How can you say that so matter of fact? I played ball w/ some freak athletes, and from what I've seen he's all legs. Ricky Henderson kinda lower half and really quick/strong hands. 

Edited by LarryChip10
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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, LarryChip10 said:

No disrespect, but are you his dealer? How can you say that so matter of fact? I played ball w/ some freak athletes, and from what I've seen he's all legs. Ricky Henderson kinda lower half and really quick/strong hands. 

 

The good thing about HGH is that the result are permanent, look at Juan Soto ... Dude is 16 yrs old build like a 25 yrs old, would take years naturally, freak athlete or not ... There's a steroid crisis in the DR it has been well documented ... I don't blame them, whatever it takes to get out of poverty

Elite athleticism mixed with the sauce get you even freakier ... Baseball was more fun during Barry Bonds days though I ain't against it ... I'm just stating the obvious

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/sports/dominican-republics-desperate-baseball-culture-fuels-steroid-use-experts-say.amp

Edited by LivingOnTheEdge
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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Maxcd99 said:

I definitely would contend that there's a big difference between 150 and 300. Pretty much most '18 and '17 first round picks have comparable upside to the Pies and Patino and there's lots of other guys in the high(er) minors that I'd rather have shares of. I feel like it's like getting hyped over Luisangel Acuna except both Pies have been scouted as having better tools. 

 

I don't want to get into anecdotes since they're obviously not indicative of all situations, but in a league I'm in with ~750 prospects owned, Patino was added about two weeks ago (by me), Alejandro a few days ago (not me), and Juan remains unowned. Fantrax is known for its super deep databases and for most leagues being keeper/dynasty oriented and both Pies are at 2% ownership and Patino is at 3%.

 

I'm not trying to say Patino and both Pies will be useless fantasy assets once they're called up a near half decade from now, but it is immensely aggressive to put them in the top 100-200 range.

This time of year its very difficult to prioritize prospects with all the short season pop ups and I just dis-agree about 150 to 300. It really is not. You are probably overrating the prospects in that range and being selective.

Edited by Slatykamora

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, LivingOnTheEdge said:

 

Yeah but he is on HGH big time, no 16 yrs old can look like that naturally lmao lets wait and see when he is out of the juice how he will perform. Juan Soto took the same thing but he's got elite batting eye so it doesn't matter

 

im sorry but have you ever lifted a weight in your life?  this does not SCREAM hgh or PEDs.  

 

Image result for jasson dominguez

 

Image result for jasson dominguez

Edited by jfazz23
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2 hours ago, LarryChip10 said:

It's Jasson, but this kid is a switch hitting SS w/ serious power. Also (@ 16 years young mind you) would be the fastest guy in the MLB right now. So yeah, the #46 ranking seems legit from the video and scouting reports I've seen. Dynasty GOLD!!!!!!!

 

Outfielder not SS.  And he's not that fast.  Highest grade I've seen on his speed anywhere is 60.

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10 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Outfielder not SS.  And he's not that fast.  Highest grade I've seen on his speed anywhere is 60.

 

he just ran a 6.3 second 60 yard dash.  by comparison billy hamilton runs a 6.2

 

hed be the 2nd fastest player in baseball right now

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