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Prospects 365 Midseason Top 200

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Maxcd99 said:

Some general thoughts I had after take a brief look at this.

  • I like that they upped some of the youngsters who now have performance to back up their tools (Robinson/Valera/Ronny/Luciano all come to mind)
  • Kyle Tucker at 3 is a bit confusing, but I'll admit I haven't dont too much homework on him anyway and can't argue the intricacies of where in the top 10 he should be ranked.
  • The toolsy Heliot Ramos is finally getting some love after being undermined for being a "high risk" guy.
  • The Brendan Rodgers drop is substantial, barely ranking in the top 50 after a so-so MLB debut.
  • Alejandro Pie being ranked anywhere on this list is the biggest head scratcher so far. 17/18 year old doing average in DSL. What's special about this? 40 FV guy on Fangraphs (although that's only one site's opinion). I don't see what separates him from any other DSL standout as he's not even stateside. 
  • Joey Cantillo is getting love from everywhere after being a nobody heading into this season.
  • Wilderd Patino at 175 is also confusing like Pie, although Patino is at least in Arizona.
  • ...Juan Pie too? 

So essentially I guess I started off writing that thinking it was awesome some youngsters were getting some top 20-30 hype because they were so young against their competition, but now I find the list somewhat perplexing. Alejandro Pie/Patino/Juan Pie are probably borderline guys in leagues with 500 prospects, let alone in the 100-200 range.

 

This list isn't very good.  Hyper aggressive with youngsters especially generally unknown youngsters to all but the professional international scouts,  too reactionary (for example Keller and Graterol shouldn't have been dropped that much), a bit too much emphasis on tools over skills and actual performance, and some of the teammate pairings I don't agree with (Adams over Marsh, Edwards over Abrahms).

Edited by 96mnc
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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

 

he just ran a 6.3 second 60 yard dash.  by comparison billy hamilton runs a 6.2

 

hed be the 2nd fastest player in baseball right now

 

Again,  I haven't seen a scouting grade higher than 65 anywhere. 

There's no way he'd be the 2nd fastest player in baseball over guys like Gore, Abrams, Straw, Adams, and probably 15 other guys. 

We'll agree to disagree and move on. 

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On 7/16/2019 at 2:45 AM, 96mnc said:

 

Again,  I haven't seen a scouting grade higher than 65 anywhere. 

There's no way he'd be the 2nd fastest player in baseball over guys like Gore, Abrams, Straw, Adams, and probably 15 other guys. 

We'll agree to disagree and move on. 

Outfielder not SS.  And he's not that fast.  Highest grade I've seen on his speed anywhere is 60.

 

Dude which is it? In one paragraph you said 60 grade speed, and in the next you say 65?
 

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fwiw Tatis has a 60 grade speed, and dude is the fastest guy I have seen on the bases since Eric Davis

 

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5 hours ago, Team Dynasty said:

Outfielder not SS.  And he's not that fast.  Highest grade I've seen on his speed anywhere is 60.

 

Dude which is it? In one paragraph you said 60 grade speed, and in the next you say 

 

 

It's 65.  I went and double checked a site after I posted before. 

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10 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

This time of year its very difficult to prioritize prospects with all the short season pop ups and I just dis-agree about 150 to 300. It really is not. You are probably overrating the prospects in that range and being selective.

It's definitely difficult with short season pop ups but maybe I'll just agree to disagree on players below 150 in ranking.

I hate using ownership percentage as a stat to justify a prospect's worth, but it's at least reflective of what other people think of them. That's kinda the whole point of prospect lists in general...in order to have a baseline of how good or how hyped players are relative to each other.

 

Some guys ranked in the 150s ownership numbers include:

Brice Turang (12%, 154), Austin Beck (11%, 157), Clarke Schmidt (10%, 158), Bobby Dalbec (14%, 160), Adiran Morejan (23%, 167), Miguel Amaya (11%, 170), Brady Singer (26%, 176)

To put this into context, some top prospect and their ownerships are Jesus Luzardo (74%), Forrest Whitley (71%), Bo Bichette (59%), Brent Honeywell (46%), Casey Mize (46%), Jo Adell (45%), and Wander Franco (41%)

My point kinda is that there's guys listed below Patino/Pie that are owned in quintuple the amount of leagues. Sure, the hype on them is building, but ownership percentages aside I would still take any of the guys I listed near them over Patino/Pie in a heartbeat. Most of those guys are in the higher minors, have less risk, and realistically have comparable upsides to Patino and both Pies.

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What makes those 2 in a different tier then Angel Martinez and Acuna who i did not hear a peep of objection too. I like Angel Martinez over them and even this dude ranks him ahead of them. How well a player hits the DSL has very little correlation with their career projection. All of those guys are 100% projection prospects who have yet to come state side and be exposed to a wider range of scouts. Nor are they supreme raw talents.

The guys who came into this year with better graded hit tools are hitting better right now. That is pretty much what you expect.

Yet FG gives Martinez and Pie the exact same grade despite giving Martinez a better hit tool grade, being the son of a former major leaguer giving him a head start on his baseball IQ and noting Pie was going to take a couple of years to for the Rays to smooth out. Which spoke to his potential to completely exploded in the near future. One of only 2 guys from last years IFA class they have a ++ to frame with + to athletic.

He's probably giving a slight bump because he is under the rays player dev system, possibly. Although i'm pretty high the Indians player dev too.

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20 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

It's 65.  I went and double checked a site after I posted before. 

 

65 speed is Mike Trout fast! 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Yourbettstulo said:

 

65 speed is Mike Trout fast! 

 

It's flying, no doubt about it.   But there are a number of guys with 70 and higher speed grades.  Heck, there are a few 80s out there.

Edited by 96mnc

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13 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

What makes those 2 in a different tier then Angel Martinez and Acuna who i did not hear a peep of objection too. I like Angel Martinez over them and even this dude ranks him ahead of them. How well a player hits the DSL has very little correlation with their career projection. All of those guys are 100% projection prospects who have yet to come state side and be exposed to a wider range of scouts. Nor are they supreme raw talents.

The guys who came into this year with better graded hit tools are hitting better right now. That is pretty much what you expect.

Yet FG gives Martinez and Pie the exact same grade despite giving Martinez a better hit tool grade, being the son of a former major leaguer giving him a head start on his baseball IQ and noting Pie was going to take a couple of years to for the Rays to smooth out. Which spoke to his potential to completely exploded in the near future. One of only 2 guys from last years IFA class they have a ++ to frame with + to athletic.

He's probably giving a slight bump because he is under the rays player dev system, possibly. Although i'm pretty high the Indians player dev too.

I must have missed them on the list. Acuna has no place sniffing a top 200 list. There's nothing to suggest he's special about him besides that he's doing well in the DSL. He doesn't even have the tools the Pies or Patino have. Martinez falls into the similar mold of a player I don't like on this list. He's way too far away to be ranked above 1st rounders producing in the mid or high minors. It just doesn't make sense, and I'm saying this as an owner of Patino, Acuna, and Angel Martinez.

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The trend seems to be the opposite of what it was 5+ years ago. Back then guys with close proximity and fairly low ceilings were ranked ahead of young guys with star potential tools based almost entirely on how close they were to the MLB, but now it has reversed. Guys with potentially elite tools rocket up the boards with no performance in any full season league while other guys performing in much higher level leagues stay stagnant or slide.

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50 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The trend seems to be the opposite of what it was 5+ years ago. Back then guys with close proximity and fairly low ceilings were ranked ahead of young guys with star potential tools based almost entirely on how close they were to the MLB, but now it has reversed. Guys with potentially elite tools rocket up the boards with no performance in any full season league while other guys performing in much higher level leagues stay stagnant or slide.

 

Its crazy how good some young guys 20-21 years old are (Acuna, Lindor, Ohtani, Eloy, Harper among many others) compared to guys in the upper minors who are 24-25. You can point to an Arenado or the like who broke out late but if Im scout Im doing exactly what you described. Go for the home run and let the "solid regular" just get reps til they are 25-26 and call them up.

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3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

The trend seems to be the opposite of what it was 5+ years ago. Back then guys with close proximity and fairly low ceilings were ranked ahead of young guys with star potential tools based almost entirely on how close they were to the MLB, but now it has reversed. Guys with potentially elite tools rocket up the boards with no performance in any full season league while other guys performing in much higher level leagues stay stagnant or slide.

I'm looking at MLB.com's top 100 list from 2014 and feel like not much has changed.

Buxton at 1, Gallo at 6 (!!!), Sano at 7, Giolito, Archie Bradley, and Syndergaard rounding out your 8-10.

I think Buxton was ranked 1 the season after playing ~50 games in A+, and everyone know he would be risky but his tools were too good to not rank high. Gallo/Sano were always known as huge strike out guys with 80 power but either could flame out if the strikeouts never got fixed. Gallo did work out Sano not so much. Giolito/Bradley/Syndergaard were all high upside guys with decent risk. Gio couldn't pitch well on the nats and needed a big reinvention to pitch well, so I feel he technically counts as an L. Bradley is a bullpen arm and Syndergaard turned out alright.

 

I don't want to get too into detail but I feel like the high risk high upside guys are ranked high initially until their risk becomes substantiated with poor play. Once the red flags start showing in the high minors, these guys don't sniff the high ranks they had initially, or at least that's my understanding of things.

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Sano is only 26 years old with an All-Star appearance under his belt and is on pace for 43 HR per 150 games this season so I wouldn't write him off just yet.

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4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

The trend seems to be the opposite of what it was 5+ years ago. Back then guys with close proximity and fairly low ceilings were ranked ahead of young guys with star potential tools based almost entirely on how close they were to the MLB, but now it has reversed. Guys with potentially elite tools rocket up the boards with no performance in any full season league while other guys performing in much higher level leagues stay stagnant or slide.

 

It's the reaction to Acuna and Soto.  The amateur  list makers want to be first on the next one of these guys so they are just throwing them on lists.  

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

It's the reaction to Acuna and Soto.  The amateur  list makers want to be first on the next one of these guys so they are just throwing them on lists.  

 

It's because the OLD Dinosaur with their hats and Cigar that listen to The pride of the Yankees are long and gone. New generation analyst taking over for the better of the game

Edited by LivingOnTheEdge

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, AHF said:

Sano is only 26 years old with an All-Star appearance under his belt and is on pace for 43 HR per 150 games this season so I wouldn't write him off just yet.

Yeah, and he also hit under the mendoza line last season and got demoted...you're right in that he shouldn't be completely written off yet but he was touted as the guy to lead the league in HRs if Gallo didn't lower his K rate. 13 HRs (in 45 games) isn't bad but I attribute it more to the juiced ball than a complete revelation. He's still hitting in the .230-.240 range.

He hasn't justified his ranking.

I liked the point brought up in this being Acuna/Soto syndrome. That's probably the biggest factor in aggressively ranking guys performing in the low minors.

 

I'm surprised none of these non-establishment fantasy lists have included Jack Herman. He's putting up gaudy numbers in A ball right now as a 19 year old albeit as a 30th round pick.

Edited by Maxcd99
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2 hours ago, LivingOnTheEdge said:

 

It's because the OLD Dinosaur with their hats and Cigar that listen to The pride of the Yankees are long and gone. New generation analyst taking over for the better of the game

 

What?  

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36 minutes ago, Maxcd99 said:

 

I'm surprised none of these non-establishment fantasy lists have included Jack Herman. He's putting up gaudy numbers in A ball right now as a 19 year old albeit as a 30th round pick.

 

I too am on the Herman bandwagon. Currently sitting on four dynasty shares.

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1 hour ago, Maxcd99 said:

I'm surprised none of these non-establishment fantasy lists have included Jack Herman. He's putting up gaudy numbers in A ball right now as a 19 year old albeit as a 30th round pick.

The 30.7% K rate is concerning. That said, there's enough to like that if you're going 200 deep he probably deserves a spot near the end.

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30 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

The 30.7% K rate is concerning. That said, there's enough to like that if you're going 200 deep he probably deserves a spot near the end.

 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

The 30.7% K rate is concerning. That said, there's enough to like that if you're going 200 deep he probably deserves a spot near the end.

 

The k rate is concerning.

I also am questioning the ability of the current pit regime player development system to help their young talented get their k rates under control.   Mitchell, Martin, and Herman all have troubling k rates.   Mitchell has gone backwards.  Lolo Sanchez and Martin both had to repeat levels to to have surface success.  

Herman remains a guy I'm closely tracking but contact rate is key. 

Edited by 96mnc

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