Mikhov

Brandon Clarke 2019-2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Named summer league’s MVP, has a very fantasy friendly game (2 way player and can hit threes). His usage wasn’t nuts so I dont think this is a Christian Wood scenario all over again.

Slated to back-up JJJ (cornerstone) and JV (paid) in Memphis, so he could get 20 minutes out of the gate.

I like his game and opportunity, could be statistically similar to WCJ last year, but is more athletic and already looks comfy from range. 

Something like 10/8 on good percentages with a three and more than a block (~1.5+) seem doable.

Downside is he’s *only* 6’8 and 215. Hey may be in the right era for that, but it could also limit his production vs real NBA bigs; tack on the usual things young bigs struggle with (fouls and getting overpowered). 

Still, not a bad guy to take a flyer on - late in the draft (especially since he’s a PF not a C for leagues with C caps)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Clarke is interesting.  I just took him in the 8th round in 12 team roto dynasty startup.  

 

I'm assuming most rookies don't play or ever pan out because, although talented, there's still number of factors, including their mental / BBIQ is still low, they get torched on defense and give up easy buckets, turn the ball over or don't make the right read on offense, basically they're a net negative.  Most need time to adjust to the strength and speed of the NBA.

 

One of Clarke's biggest strengths, is his mental makeup / BBIQ, combined with elite 99th percentile athleticism.  If you watch Summer League one of the things that makes him so good is his ability to make the right reads and rotations on defense, and put himself into position to challenge a lot of shot without fouling.  His plus / minus was absolutely insane.  Without him on the floor his team tanked.  He had a PER of over 34! Just his pure presence on the floor makes the team better.  That alone will earn him minutes.  Sure he will need time to adjust and improve, but I kind of see him as an impact plug and play from day 1.  

 

Offensively he's better than advertised.  The 3 ball is there, which opens up his first step blow by.  The pick and roll game, etc, all good.  Elite touch.  Elite finisher.  Has a shot to be in the 65% FG range and be an elite FG booster.  More blocks than missed shots in college.

 

Although its crowded in Memphis, I could see him carving out at least 20 a night to start, and pushing up closer to 28-30 by end of year.  I could see something along the lines of 

10 and 8 with close to a steal and 1.5-2 blocks, 0.5 threes, on elite FG and FT in the 70's.  

 

Fully unleashed prime Clarke could be 18-22 points 10 rebounds 2 assists 1.5 steals 2.5 blocks 1 three on good % and low TO.  

 

  

Edited by hipriest69
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, GrandGourou said:

He can share the floor with JJJ ? 

 

I don't think the question is can he, it's how soon does it happen.  I'm thinking...what's keeping Clarke from playing the "3" in position-less basketball?  If it's about who you can guard then Clarke can guard 3-5 (ideally small ball 5's), which could theoretically make him a fit into any lineup combination (also with his ability to hit 3's).  When they share the court it will be a thing of beauty.  

 

Imagine a lineup of Jackson, Clarke, Cabocolo, JJJ to defensively close out the game... 

Edited by hipriest69

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

Imagine a lineup of Jackson, Clarke, Cabocolo, JJJ to defensively close out the game... 

 

All I can imagine is how much they would get destroyed by actual NBA players...They may get some stops, but, dios mio, that would be some ugly, ugly offense assuming Morant or Jones is the PG with those 4.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

I don't think the question is can he, it's how soon does it happen.  I'm thinking...what's keeping Clarke from playing the "3" in position-less basketball?  If it's about who you can guard then Clarke can guard 3-5 (ideally small ball 5's), which could theoretically make him a fit into any lineup combination (also with his ability to hit 3's).  When they share the court it will be a thing of beauty. 

If Kyle Anderson plays like he did last year, then the future gets even brighter for Clarke

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/17/2019 at 6:28 AM, hipriest69 said:

Imagine a lineup of Jackson, Clarke, Cabocolo, JJJ to defensively close out the game... 

 

Could be scary in a few years, if things go well, but it may be a bit premature for the rest of the league to dread that line-up. 

I really like JJJ and Ja and Clarke, but the stability on this roster will come from Tyus (who is underrated and I feel will do great this year) and JV (Take off scoring pressure early on, as the young blood gets thicker).

Caboclo will likely be a wild card that has an opportunity to realize his potential, while Josh jackson has the BBIQ of a cheese sandwich and has been immature thus far, not a fan.

Impressive overhaul from Mem given how crap their situation was a season ago!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JV is so good that it will take at least half a season for him to get enough minutes to make an impact. JJ will play 48 mins a game if he doesn't foul (not really but quite a bit). I don't know how its going to work with JV and JJ but I do know no one give a flying F about Clarke when JJJ is around so depends what happens with him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I only play Dynasty Leagues. I will be targeting Brandon Clarke heavily. Don't tell anyone in my leagues.......They value my opinion on NBA talent...haha.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, larfboy said:

where does he go in a dynasty rookie draft?

 

For a rookie draft I could see him go anywhere from 3rd - 10th.  I could see someone taking him 3rd ahead of RJ, but could also see people valuing Garland, Coby, Culver, Herro, Hunter, Rui, ahead of him, which would put him around 10th.  I would personally take him 3rd unless my team needed guards.    

 

For startup drafts I've seen him go in the 6th round in a recent dynasty industry mock.  I took him in the 8th round in a 12 team startup recently.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best rookie on his own team. Kid is going to be special. No hype for someone who just turned in one of the best collegiate seasons in recent memory? C'mon.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Saucy said:

Best rookie on his own team. Kid is going to be special. No hype for someone who just turned in one of the best collegiate seasons in recent memory? C'mon.

 

I mean that's fine and all, but how is he going to get minutes?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

He can be close to what John Collins was during his rookie season.

Edited by RipCity0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Trench Mob said:

 

I mean that's fine and all, but how is he going to get minutes?

 

Easy.  He plays when coach puts him in.  

 

Ok kidding but I think he can get 20 / night or so.  Outside of JJJ and J-Val I know its crowded but I'm going to say he's easily their best player amongst the Bruno / Jae / Slo-mo / whoever else they have, and he's gonna get minutes.  J-Val still only played around 26-28 min / night after the trade.  That's 20 backup min right there.  JJJ played 26 min / night.  There's over 20 backup min there.  So we're at over 40 backup minutes at the 4/5 (ok so maybe JJJ plays a few extra minutes, its negligible for our purposes, still lots of minutes).  We haven't even gotten to the 3 spot, where there's 48 minutes up for grabs.  Who's gonna play them?  Slo-Mo's still hurt, Josh Jackson is banished to D-League, Iggy we're assuming isn't on the squad.  So we're looking mostly at Crowder, Bruno, and Clarke, to fill about 65-70 minutes.  Maybe throw in Slo-Mo or Iggy if they're available.  To me Clarke is the best player by far out of all of them, it just might take him some time to surpass them.  Whether that happens fully this year or not I don't know.  But I can see over 20 min / night from him, maybe 8-10 points, 6 reb, 1.2 blocks, 0.5 steals, great FG, maybe even close to 1 three / game.  He can play 3/4/5 spots if we're still thinking positions in this position-less transition the league is going thru.  Hell he might even end up starting at the "3" at some point.  I think he's worth a last round flyer pick in re-draft.  In dynasty I fully believe he will be a top 50, maybe even top 30 type of player within 2-3 years.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

maybe 8-10 points, 6 reb, 1.2 blocks, 0.5 steals, great FG, maybe even close to 1 three / game.

 

If he only gets 8-10 points, then it won't be much of a FG% impact. And yet another big who can't rebound. Yeah man... This doesn't exactly tickle my funny bones lol.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

 

If he only gets 8-10 points, then it won't be much of a FG% impact. And yet another big who can't rebound. Yeah man... This doesn't exactly tickle my funny bones lol.

 

This is what I think he can get in 20 minutes / game, as a last round pick.  What other last round big out there are you expecting to get 10 rebounds and 15 points on 60% FG?    That's what you're implying your expectations are.  Let's see, there's Jakob with 5 points / 5 rebounds you can get, maybe Dwight in punt FT.  Tristan Thompson can get you more than 5 or 6 rebounds but won't score many points.  There aren't many options at that point.  So you personally probably are not taking a big that late anyway if held to your standards.        

 

In a smaller league he's probably not going to have value, in deeper leagues he can.  What if he plays more minutes and gets 12 points?  6-11 FG?  6-7 reb?  Over 1 block?  Not valuable?  There's upside there, maybe just not for everyone.    

 

Edited by hipriest69

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

just went through his college stats, may not mean much, but his PER improved drastically every year. It was even higher than Anthony Davis's in his lone college year.

obviously not comparing their talent as its probably not even close, but should speak to his ability to improve, understanding the nuances of the game and good bball iq. PERS 21.7->29.1->37.2 21.7 isnt bad even for a first year. Anthony Davis's was 35.2 in comparison. 

I like clarkes block % >11% and his bball IQ. I think he may be worth taking a gamble on. He's also a few years older. and gonzaga has produced some good nba talent.

Edited by WhatIsThisWizardry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In case anyone's interested Clarke compared his game to a hybrid of Shawn Marion and Draymond Green.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Much respect to the analyses, but I'm finding there are a plethora of other options at the end of drafts and I don't see Clarke outperforming them behind JJJ/J-Val.

 Zach Collins, Javale, Looney all going around there. Also lately Cody Zeller, Alex Len, and Dwight Powell are falling there too. Dwight and Poltl are weaker options but I feel like their minutes are more secure because tbh I don't see Brandon Clarke playing any kind of significant minutes at SF. 

 

I like his statset but I can't just ignore the reality - he's a PF/C and the Grizz have two great options at those positions already. His upside is heavily capped without injuries or trades. It's rare that a backup big will be useful in 12-teamers, so I'm not seeing the late-round flier appeal. Bam, Dwight Powell, & WCJr were all getting minutes in the low to mid-20s and were still barely fantasy relevant in 9-cat with final ranks in the low 110s. John Collins's rookie season he was ranked in the 90s at 24 mpg. 

I like the kid, but I don't think it's his year this year. We'll see tho

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, s-kayos said:

Much respect to the analyses, but I'm finding there are a plethora of other options at the end of drafts and I don't see Clarke outperforming them behind JJJ/J-Val.

 Zach Collins, Javale, Looney all going around there. Also lately Cody Zeller, Alex Len, and Dwight Powell are falling there too. Dwight and Poltl are weaker options but I feel like their minutes are more secure because tbh I don't see Brandon Clarke playing any kind of significant minutes at SF. 

 

I like his statset but I can't just ignore the reality - he's a PF/C and the Grizz have two great options at those positions already. His upside is heavily capped without injuries or trades. It's rare that a backup big will be useful in 12-teamers, so I'm not seeing the late-round flier appeal. Bam, Dwight Powell, & WCJr were all getting minutes in the low to mid-20s and were still barely fantasy relevant in 9-cat with final ranks in the low 110s. John Collins's rookie season he was ranked in the 90s at 24 mpg. 

I like the kid, but I don't think it's his year this year. We'll see tho

 

 

Powell is to me a strong option at that point.  Clarke is clearly behind all players mentioned, but we'll see about Poeltl.  And all of those players should be drafted well ahead of Clarke anyway, and from the drafts I've seen all of them have been taken ahead of Clarke.  If he can finish around the 110/90 range mentioned above that would be a huge win for him this season.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks good so far in the PreSeason. How realistic is it that he gets 25 Min an NIght on an Daily Basis. Perhaps 15 at C and 10 at PF ?!

I think in the new fast System the Grizzlys are playing he can be very productive in 25 mins.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mj66 said:

Looks good so far in the PreSeason. How realistic is it that he gets 25 Min an NIght on an Daily Basis. Perhaps 15 at C and 10 at PF ?!

I think in the new fast System the Grizzlys are playing he can be very productive in 25 mins.

 

I think he will get 25 minutes. I would expect JV to get around 27-30 mins and JJJ to around the 30 min mark.

 

He fits really well with this team.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...