jay2491

James White 2019 Outlook

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On 7/17/2019 at 8:18 AM, handyandy86 said:

 

So are you picking Burkhead this year?

I think the difference in other years was there was lots of roster turnover and injuries at the RB position, which left everyone trying to guess how it would play out. 

2016 was the year that Blount finished as an RB1, and his ADP that year was right around 90th overall, pretty much tied with James White.  They were the highest picked NE RB's that year, which were RB36/37.  Even James White finished 2016 as RB35 so it isn't like he didn't return value relative to his draft position.  Dion Lewis was injured a lot of the year and didn't do much.

2017 was more change because Blount left and Gillislee was signed, supposedly to fill Blount's early down/GL role.  He was the highest drafted NE RB at an ADP around 65th / RB27, and basically ended up sucking, getting benched, and finished at RB55.  James White was RB42 picked that year and finished RB48, not very good / valuable, but still not too far off his draft position.  Dion Lewis was the big unexpected winner after Gillislee stunk, and nobody paid attention to him on draft day because he had been injured the past two year and written off.  

2018 changed again with Lewis leaving, and I guess the thought process was Burkhead would take over his role, and was highest-picked at RB29, followed closely by Michel at RB35 and White at RB42.  Burkhead finished RB80 and wasn't used how people hoped that drafted him, but Michel and White were both top-25 RB's.  

This year the nice thing is the backfield more or less stays constant.  The last few years the leading fantasy RB from NE has left the team the next season, so it leaves things open for speculation.  This year you have carryover and it's hard to see things changing a lot, outside of injury.  The same offense carried both White and Michel last year, and that was with more weapons around to steal touches.  Burkhead is currently RB66 off the board, so not a lot to lose throwing a flyer on him and seeing what happens, but I also think White is going to be really good value if people keep overthinking this backfield.

 

Good points there. I'm always leery of NE RBs but if I'm looking for a RB3 and the price is reasonable, I'm fine w/White. 

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Let's just go to BB's opposite world. What we think is completely wrong. White should be a safe rb 2/3. Ok, now what happens? Burk becomes the short yardage TD back and White sits on the sideline. So, White gets some PPR love, Burk gets the TDs, and then for no good reason #34 comes in and changes everything from week to week. Then, BB decides the UDFA or some other scrub no one has drafted will be featured every other week or so making it impossible to predict what RB to start.

RB White is draftable, the problem is that you may have no idea when to start him.

 

No thanks. Completely avoiding the NE RBs at any cost.

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The WR and TE situations are a mess + the Pats want the ball out of Brady's hands ASAP to avoid hits + Brady has a chemistry with him + injury history of other RBs =

Buying in PPR.  

 

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4 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

The WR and TE situations are a mess + the Pats want the ball out of Brady's hands ASAP to avoid hits + Brady has a chemistry with him + injury history of other RBs =

Buying in PPR.  

 

 

Exactly this. Look at their receiving core and how many of them have had time with TB12? Edelman and White. Sure we will never have a JW2k season, but in PPR he has - in my eyes - a nice upside catching a passes and getting some rushyards per game.

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Any other thoughts on this dude. Cant get a read on him based on little to no playing time in preseason. Worth a top 50 pick?

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On 8/24/2019 at 2:37 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

Any other thoughts on this dude. Cant get a read on him based on little to no playing time in preseason. Worth a top 50 pick?

 

He's a Patriots RB. You're not going to get a read on him ever - and deliberately so.

I picked him up relatively cheaply in an auction to FLEX (0.5PPR), and am just going to cross my fingers. Not worth much of a look in Standard, but could be useful in PPR...but I wouldn't expect to see the sort of numbers he was putting up at the beginning of last season.

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On 8/24/2019 at 2:37 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

Any other thoughts on this dude. Cant get a read on him based on little to no playing time in preseason. Worth a top 50 pick?

He's a major factor in the passing game, they'll split him out to the slot and stuff. His targets were up in games Gronk was out. He'll continue to be a major factor in the passing game with less than 10 carries a game sprinkled in.

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New England's offense is going to be based around their RB's now that Gronk is gone and they have a bunch of nobodies at TE. Think about this: New England was #2 in the NFL (1 behind Carolina) in RB targets last year WITH Gronkowski. I know 4 backs seems like a crowd, but those guys are going to get the ball a ton and at least one will always be banged up. 

And honestly I think Belichick sees White/Burkhead as one position group and Michel/Harris as another. Expect a lot of 2 back sets. 

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If my draft works out to where I get him as my number 3 I'll do it. I'd prefer to use him as my flex or emergency number two back. I think he is too talented not to have a roll in this offense.

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Basically ask yourself "If his TDs went from 12, down to his career norm, and his carries also went down to his career norm, where would I draft him?". I like White, but last year was a pretty obvious outlier in those categories, plus all signs point to Sony getting as much of the backfield as he can carry. I like White as a complimentary back, but if you're expecting him to be your RB2 in PPR, you may be disappointed a lot of weeks.

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Josh Gordon's return really puts a ding in this guy's value, which was mostly in receiving value. Still worth rostering, but he'll be hard-pressed to do more than be borderline RB2 level if not less.

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9 minutes ago, bomont said:

Josh Gordon's return really puts a ding in this guy's value, which was mostly in receiving value. Still worth rostering, but he'll be hard-pressed to do more than be borderline RB2 level if not less.

I disagree. Gordon doesn't impact White at all. Totally different. Gordons return simply makes all other received (except Edelman) undraftable.

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if all the rbs are gone in that 4th round 5th round time in ppr, I see no problem with taking him. like right after Jacobs Montgomery type range, before duke

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7 minutes ago, bigslick631 said:

I disagree. Gordon doesn't impact White at all. Totally different. Gordons return simply makes all other received (except Edelman) undraftable.

Again White's value is mostly receiving, so absolutely he is impacted along with anyone else catching the ball.

And there is no way I would take him anywhere near Jacobs, Montgomery or Johnson. 

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Just now, bomont said:

Again White's value is mostly receiving, so absolutely he is impacted along with anyone else catching the ball.

And there is no way I would take him anywhere near Jacobs, Montgomery or Johnson. 

just because he catches the ball doesn't mean that a field stretching outside WR is going to impact his catches. But if that was you want to believe... I think TE - RB has a much bigger correlation receiving wise.. oh yea, the best TE in the league no longer plays for NE...whos their TE now??

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5 minutes ago, bomont said:

Again White's value is mostly receiving, so absolutely he is impacted along with anyone else catching the ball.

And there is no way I would take him anywhere near Jacobs, Montgomery or Johnson. 

what do u mean... james white is ranked higher than duke.. the other guys I obv would take before him.

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If you want to be a slave to ADPs, go for it, I'll pass - White will rush very little at all this year and his receps down too, meanwhile Johnson is THE man on the Texans and can catch also. 

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Anyone starting him this week? The last three years vs Pittsburgh he hasn’t done much.

 

2016 2 catches 32 yards 1td

2016 Playoffs 3 catches 8 yards

2017 2 catches 8 yards

2018 2 carries 12 yards 5 catches 25 yards

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On 8/30/2019 at 12:43 PM, floppy said:

if all the rbs are gone in that 4th round 5th round time in ppr, I see no problem with taking him. like right after Jacobs Montgomery type range, before duke

 

No way I would take him over Duke, and I love White.

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On 8/30/2019 at 10:13 AM, bomont said:

Josh Gordon's return really puts a ding in this guy's value, which was mostly in receiving value. Still worth rostering, but he'll be hard-pressed to do more than be borderline RB2 level if not less.

 

Were you in a coma last year?  Here's a quick recap...

1: Josh Gordon was on the Patriots last year.

2: James White was also on the Patriots last year.

3: James White was the 7th best RB in PPR last year.

4: James White, through all 19 of New England's games played, averaged 16.547 fantasy points per game. (10th best among RBs)

5: Through the first 3 weeks of the season, in which Josh Gordon was not on the Pats field, James White averaged 15.033 fantasy points per game

6: Through the next 6 weeks, while defenses scrambled to change their entire defensive strategy against Josh Gordon and the Pats, James White averaged 25.417 fantasy points per game

7: For the full 11 weeks in which Josh Gordon was on the field for the Patriots, James White averaged 18.291 fantasy points per game.

8: For the other 8 weeks in which Josh Gordon was NOT on the field for the Patriots, James White averaged 14.150 fantasy points per game.

9: Before you waste your breath; With Gronk (15 games) James White Averaged 16.0 PPG, without Gronk (4 games) James White averaged 18.6 PPG.

10: Sony Michel missed 3 games last year, in those 3 games James White averaged 23.1 points per game.  In the other 16 with Michel, White averaged 15.3 PPG.

Conclusion:
James White averaged MORE points per game when Josh Gordon was ON the field.
James White averaged MORE points per game when Gronkowski was OFF the field.

In 2019 both of these things will be true. *For the foreseeable future at least.

If Sony were to miss time, you can expect White's value to increase even further.

If James White played for any other team in the league, he'd be getting drafted in the first 3 rounds based on his production and usage from last year.  The only reason you get a 2 round discount is because Belichick likes to outsmart the entire league, us included, on a weekly basis.  I understand that NE/BB have a history of moving RBs around, but White is not really a RB.  He's a WR that lines up in the backfield and that risk is already baked into his ADP.

My philosophy on Pats RBs for the past 5 years has always been the same, always draft 1, but never the first one.  This is the first year I would (and did) gladly invest in both Sony and White without hesitation.  I've been fooled before, I may be getting fooled again, but it's a risk I'm willing to take based on what my eyes see, and what the numbers tell me.

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My thought on this topic is a simple observation on my part from last season:

It seemed to me that when the Pats made an effort to get White the ball, the results were good and the offense played well;

When the Pats did NOT commit to getting White the ball, they struggled a lot of the time.

How that translates to this season? Who knows?

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