Fantasyscrub

Nikola Jokic 2019-2020 Outlook

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He's going for $69 in auctions 😢 I'm not sure I'm willing to pay that much.  Can get Kemba and John Collins for that price

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17 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

He's going for $69 in auctions 😢 I'm not sure I'm willing to pay that much.  Can get Kemba and John Collins for that price

Considering Jokic has a z score of .50 and Kemba has one of .31 and Collins .06 then that’s a fair deal.  Jokic plus Smart > Kemba and Collins. 

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15 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Considering Jokic has a z score of .50 and Kemba has one of .31 and Collins .06 then that’s a fair deal.  Jokic plus Smart > Kemba and Collins. 

 

Z score? 🤔

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5 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

Z score? 🤔

Basketball monster or ninja.  Standard deviation module to objectively assess player worth. 

Edited by StifleTower2

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14 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

Z score? 🤔


The player value you see in rankings.
Sure, it's for all the cats you play (last season rank, standard 9 cat, 12 teams, 13 players).
Could be adjustable to league settings and cat strategy.

zscore_small.gif

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Hoping for a better season from Jokic without his patented crazy stretches of not taking any shots this year. 

In Nov he had a stretch of 4 games where he scored 4, 7, 8, 4 points on 5,9,3,1 shots.... 

Also put up a few ~30/20 games to counter those.

 

Very well rounded (with crazy out of position Assists and high steals) with the only deficiency in Blks.

Has the potential to continue to improve across the board:

- FGA's have gone up every year 11.7 -> 13.5 -> 15.1

- 3's and 3% inexplicably fell last year 1.5->1 and 39.6% -> 30.7%. Will also impact Pts and FG% positively

- Assts & Stls are also still trending up 

 

Bottom line... as Chuck Rhoades would say.... Worth it!

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14 minutes ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

Rotoworld is saying the Nuggets are load managing him this season.

 

Right now he is the load 

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Lol not a chance. Load management two players that are under 25 with no injury history. 

Nuggets will be fighting for a top 3 seed the entire year 

Edited by taenggg

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On 9/17/2019 at 8:43 AM, chaiway said:

Hoping for a better season from Jokic without his patented crazy stretches of not taking any shots this year. 

In Nov he had a stretch of 4 games where he scored 4, 7, 8, 4 points on 5,9,3,1 shots.... 

Also put up a few ~30/20 games to counter those.

 

Very well rounded (with crazy out of position Assists and high steals) with the only deficiency in Blks.

Has the potential to continue to improve across the board:

- FGA's have gone up every year 11.7 -> 13.5 -> 15.1

- 3's and 3% inexplicably fell last year 1.5->1 and 39.6% -> 30.7%. Will also impact Pts and FG% positively

- Assts & Stls are also still trending up 

 

Bottom line... as Chuck Rhoades would say.... Worth it!

 

his dip in three point shooting really sucked last year.  If he kept hitting 1.5 a game, that would have been 22+ ppg on the season

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In all seriousness, he's not. People want to tout the out of position steals and assists. What about the fact that he's going to be the lowest scorer in that round by possibly 5+ points. Or that he is a poor shot blocker. Or that he doesn't hit many threes? Or that he could be managed? Or that they've stated they don't want to run the offense through him? I like him, but I cannot take him over Lillard, Embiid, Beal, etc. Back end of the first for me.

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32 minutes ago, Quazza said:

man, I told yall 😂

 

spacer.png

Well, he is fat as f---.  Probably 20% bf in that pic.  Good thing basketball is a skill sport.  He could literally walk up the court, plant himself at the foul line, and work from there. 

 

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1 minute ago, Saucy said:

In all seriousness, he's not. People want to tout the out of position steals and assists. What about the fact that he's going to be the lowest scorer in that round by possibly 5+ points. Or that he is a poor shot blocker. Or that he doesn't hit many threes? Or that he could be managed? Or that they've stated they don't want to run the offense through him? I like him, but I cannot take him over Lillard, Embiid, Beal, etc. Back end of the first for me.

Well, I’m not a big fan.  But the problem is that no one else after 5 is going to have overall EV better than 6th either.  Worst of the evils. 

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5 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Well, I’m not a big fan.  But the problem is that no one else after 5 is going to have overall EV better than 6th either.  Worst of the evils. 

Yeah, there will be no better example of why auction is superior to snake than when 99% of last place teams with pick 6-8 finish bottom of the league

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11 minutes ago, Saucy said:

Yeah, there will be no better example of why auction is superior to snake than when 99% of last place teams with pick 6-8 finish bottom of the league

Ofc I agree.   The problem is that I play 20ish leagues and it’s impossible to play that much volume of auction given that snake is more common.  I only play snake due to a lack of availability of auction.  Although snake does have some extra excitement of how I am going to get ****** over/sniped?

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I'm in the dreaded 6th spot and I think I am going to avoid the Joker....

Got a feeling he might be load managed closer to the end of season since he looks to be in worst shape than last year....and last year he was absolutely winded and tired in the real playoffs...I think Denver learns from their mistake and manages his playing time and games played better..

Leaning towards Dame where I know I will get 80 games of 35+ minutes....which in H2H is invaluable. 

Is passing on Joker crazy???

 

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1 hour ago, crocp said:

I'm in the dreaded 6th spot and I think I am going to avoid the Joker....

Got a feeling he might be load managed closer to the end of season since he looks to be in worst shape than last year....and last year he was absolutely winded and tired in the real playoffs...I think Denver learns from their mistake and manages his playing time and games played better..

Leaning towards Dame where I know I will get 80 games of 35+ minutes....which in H2H is invaluable. 

Is passing on Joker crazy???

 


Yes.

Jokic is probably the easiest asset to build a balanced team around. 

I would certainly dodge Lillard in the first round and pick guards in the 3rd.

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IMO Jokic is not top 10 material, even if he is "easy" to build around. You have to make sure your rounds 2-4 are perfect if you have Joker in the first. I took him first round last year and it was an uphill battle the entire season. 

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19 minutes ago, Snatch said:


Yes.

Jokic is probably the easiest asset to build a balanced team around. 

I would certainly dodge Lillard in the first round and pick guards in the 3rd.

 

you have no concerns for him playing the whole season?

also, why would you actively dodge dame in the 1st round? He is going 7th in almost all drafts (right behind Jokic), but usually always ahead of Embiid and LBJ.

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1 minute ago, crocp said:

 

you have no concerns for him playing the whole season?

also, why would you actively dodge dame in the 1st round? He is going 7th in almost all drafts (right behind Jokic), but usually always ahead of Embiid and LBJ.


Lillard is amazing, but after the turn, you are left with mediocre C's and PF's. If you fill the rebounds & the stocks on the turn, with some luck you can snatch Lowry, DMitchell, Booker, T.Young, etc.

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4 minutes ago, Snatch said:


Lillard is amazing, but after the turn, you are left with mediocre C's and PF's. If you fill the rebounds & the stocks on the turn, with some luck you can snatch Lowry, DMitchell, Booker, T.Young, etc.

That’s a weird thing to say considering almost the entirety of the late second to fourth rounds are bigs: Stifle, Drummond, Turner, LMA, Capela, Kristaps, Ayton, Siakam, Jval, JJJ, Favors, Bryant.  Idk probably forgetting some names but of the 30 picks from 15-45 the majority are bigs. 

 

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Lillard and Jokic are interchangeable at 6-7 picks to round out their mini tier after the big 5. Then it really gets ugly. Lillard's boost in PTS & FT% is probably more valuable than Jokic's out of position STL & AST. The amount of efficient FT shooting big men seems to be increasing which makes joker a bit less valuable than in the past. Taking Lillard also opens you up to absorbing 1 or 2 mediocre FT shooters. Given the quality bigs spread throughout the draft I would feel better taking Lillard and avoiding some of the reaches on PG in round 2/3. 

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

That’s a weird thing to say considering almost the entirety of the late second to fourth rounds are bigs: Stifle, Drummond, Turner, LMA, Capela, Kristaps, Ayton, Siakam, Jval, JJJ, Favors, Bryant.  Idk probably forgetting some names but of the 30 picks from 15-45 the majority are bigs. 

 

After the 15th pick you have Jrue, Kemba, Mitchell, Lowry, DRussell Booker etc. players that can contribute much from the stuff you'll get from Lillard.

Turner, JVal, JJJ, Favors, Bryant... are you kidding me? You would pick them inside inside top 30?

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