slmroz

Kelly Oubre Jr 2019-2020 Season Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Hello guys.

What do you think about Oubre?
To me - he's one of the hardest players to project.

And it's not even Phoenix rotation that confuses me the most.
Of course, there are changes in the lineup... Kelly started playing really well after Warren went down. Now Warren is gone as well as Josh Jackson but Bridges is one year older and more experienced... Rubio in theory could be the first true PG since long... If he restarts his career with Suns.

But what is the most important factor for me - it's Oubre's FG%.
Since his rookie season he was getting worse each year, getting to the lowest 40% in his "magical" third season.
Then got traded to Phoenix where not only almost reached 50% but also further increased threes (although with not that big increase in 3% to around 35%).

Outlier or trend? 

Edited by slmroz

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On 7/17/2019 at 11:14 AM, slmroz said:

Hello guys.

What do you think about Oubre?
To me - he's one of the hardest players to project.

And it's not even Phoenix rotation that confuses me the most.
Of course, there are changes in the lineup... Kelly started playing really well after Warren went down. Now Warren is gone as well as Josh Jackson but Bridges is one year older and more experienced... Rubio in theory could be the first true PG since long... If he restarts his career with Suns.

But what is the most important factor for me - it's Oubre's FG%.
Since his rookie season he was getting worse each year, getting to the lowest 40% in his "magical" third season.
Then got traded to Phoenix where not only almost reached 50% but also further increased threes (although with not that big increase in 3% to around 35%).

Outlier or trend? 

 

It's an outlier based on his previous seasons, but its also indicative of his improvement and breakout.  He's not gonna shoot that well, I think, over the course of the whole season, but I'd expect somewhere between 43-46%.  I really like his game, better off the bench where he can just feast.  

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Yeah, I agree that 48% is likely an outlier.  The 45% he was shooting before that isn't.  On 48% he was 32nd, on 45% he was 87th.  I don't think he can sustain 20pg but if you do the math for the number of attempts, using 45% as his FG% it ends up at 16.5 which I think is sustainable.  I expect his line to be something like 16/6/1.5 with 2 threes, 1.5 steals, .6 blocks.  45 FG//78 FT/2 TO.  He really improved in every stat, not just points and FG% which leads me to believe he was going to have a breakout whether he was traded or not. The trade was simply a catalyst where he was given more opportunity.  That line I posted profiles most similar to Tatum and I bet Oubre can be top 60 this season.  So if you miss out on the more hyped forwards he can be very solid in the middle rounds.   

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28 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Yeah, I agree that 48% is likely an outlier.  The 45% he was shooting before that isn't.  On 48% he was 32nd, on 45% he was 87th.  I don't think he can sustain 20pg but if you do the math for the number of attempts, using 45% as his FG% it ends up at 16.5 which I think is sustainable.  I expect his line to be something like 16/6/1.5 with 2 threes, 1.5 steals, .6 blocks.  45 FG//78 FT/2 TO.  He really improved in every stat, not just points and FG% which leads me to believe he was going to have a breakout whether he was traded or not. The trade was simply a catalyst where he was given more opportunity.  That line I posted profiles most similar to Tatum and I bet Oubre can be top 60 this season.  So if you miss out on the more hyped forwards he can be very solid in the middle rounds.   

 

Yes I was definitely targeting him as he fell in our draft and I now I kind of regret not taking him.

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What are the chances of him and Bridges essentially splitting minutes at the 3?

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14 minutes ago, BMart519 said:

What are the chances of him and Bridges essentially splitting minutes at the 3?

 

Saric is just not that good. He’s a liability defensively, reminds me a lot of a poor mans Gallo. Oubre will play a lot of 4 as well.

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7 hours ago, theantishere said:

Having a hard time deciding between Oubre and Miles Bridges. Thoughts?

The Phoenix Suns have finally locked up Kelly Oubre. His contract is a bigger deal than it might seem at first blush.

Phoenix Suns fans have been dying for a information about Kelly Oubre‘s return to the franchise for weeks now, news which has finally broken that he has re-signed – above the cap – allowing the Valley Boyz to remain intact for the time being.

Signed for two years and $30 million ($15.3 million this season and $14.7 million in 2020-21), Oubre’s contract in cost is right at about where Suns fans figured it would be.

 

 

Hes playing....period.

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14 hours ago, theantishere said:

Having a hard time deciding between Oubre and Miles Bridges. Thoughts?

Oubre for me.

Miles hasn't shown he can make shots and score as much as Oubre has last year.

Oubre is also a great bet for 2-1.5-1 guy. I would pick him up at 6th-7th, if available.

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38 minutes ago, gooseball said:

Oubre is also a great bet for 2-1.5-1 guy. I would pick him up at 6th-7th, if available.

 

He's going to be so good. Ugh. One of the few guys I wish I had. He went in the 6th round ( 61st pick ) in the Rotoworld draft.

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Kelly Oubre Jr. (right wrist tendinitis). No timetable on his return as well. He'll also be re-evaluated in 7-10 days.

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