Simsanityy179

Rotoworld Summer Mock Draft (H2H) 2019-2020: Discussion Thread

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TJ Warren... Not a guard still but at least an SF :-) After breakout year landing in Indy where his scoring will be needed without Bogdanovic and Oladipo. Health remains question mark but we're now officially in the rounds where question marks happen.

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It’s so dead here lol...Just to bump the thread, I think getting JV at 67 is a complete bargain as that’s basically his floor.  He’s been top 75 for years now and is durable as well.  Last year he finally showed flashes of his potential, being third round value in Memphis, a poor man’s ayton.  He can average 20/10/1+ while being one of the most efficiency bigs in the game.  He provides no peripheral stats but given that I was considering punting reb/FG and he brings me out of that it’s a good get.  Despite not getting any bigs until round 4, I don’t think I’m at a disadvantage there drafting MitchRob, Horford, and JV picks 43-67.  Maybe Gallagher is right that there are more bigs in the middle rounds this year than years prior. 

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29 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

It’s so dead here lol...Just to bump the thread, I think getting JV at 67 is a complete bargain as that’s basically his floor.  He’s been top 75 for years now and is durable as well.  Last year he finally showed flashes of his potential, being third round value in Memphis, a poor man’s ayton.  He can average 20/10/1+ while being one of the most efficiency bigs in the game.  He provides no peripheral stats but given that I was considering punting reb/FG and he brings me out of that it’s a good get.  Despite not getting any bigs until round 4, I don’t think I’m at a disadvantage there drafting MitchRob, Horford, and JV picks 43-67.  Maybe Gallagher is right that there are more bigs in the middle rounds this year than years prior. 

 

On the early side you have Bam, Draymond, and sometimes LMA, then more in the middle you have Bryant, JV, Horford, Adams, Favors, Allen, Hassan, Randle,Gasol, Brook Lopez, Harrell, Sabonis, WCJ, Bagley...and a bit later Kanter.  I'm probably forgetting some but that's a solid list there.  Might be more tempted to go guard / wings early...

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6 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

On the early side you have Bam, Draymond, and sometimes LMA, then more in the middle you have Bryant, JV, Horford, Adams, Favors, Allen, Hassan, Randle,Gasol, Brook Lopez, Harrell, Sabonis, WCJ, Bagley...and a bit later Kanter.  I'm probably forgetting some but that's a solid list there.  Might be more tempted to go guard / wings early...

Particularly because a lot of those mids can be better than the early bigs.  

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E.g. suppose you picked Curry in the first and you have a late second round pick.  You could pick Capela, Ayton, Draymond in the 2,3,4 or you could pick Horford, JVal, Allen in the 5,6,7 (no particular order).  I'd drastically prefer the latter bigs.  

 

1) Capela vs. Allen: Although I think the Westbrook effect is exaggerated, I think Capela may drop a point and rebound or two while increasing his blocks and FT%, which has been his trend since joining the league.  His line projects to be something like 15/11 with 2 blocks.  He had the biggest positive FG% last year and while that may slip below Stifle and Giannis this year due to fewer attempts, I still would peg him top 3 in FG%.  FT% is harmful but on low volume and he's improved that cat significantly every year he's been in the league.  Versus Allen...I don't think having Jordan there will harm him too much as Jordan has already said he'd come off the bench and Allen only played 28 mpg last year anyway.  Actually, I think another year in the league along with Jordan's mentorship will help Allen.  I'd predict 13/9 with 2 blocks, similar percentages as last year.  While I don't think Allen can have similar FG% impact as Capela, he has less negative FT% so it balances out.  They're pretty close imo.

 

2) Draymond vs. Horford: Draymond projects to be a little better in every counting stat, but Horford is across the board more efficient.  

 

3) Ayton vs. JVAL: I think this is the closest one.  They both project to be efficient 20/10 bigs with 1+ block and not much else.  Ayton might have more upside generally but last year JVAL showed flashes of top 30 upside too.

 

TLDR: While Capela, Ayton, Draymond are obviously better than Horford, JVal, Allen I don't think it's by a sufficient margin to justify taking them much earlier.

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Round 1

1Bettercallhinkie: Karl Anthony Towns (1.1)

2. Iowncrazyhair: Anthony Davis (1.2)

3. Simsanityy179: Stephen Curry (1.3)

4. Christian: James Harden (1.4)

5. Styler: Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.5)

6. Stifletower2: Damian Lillard (1.6)

7. Slmroz: Nikola Jokic (1.7)

8. Turner46: Paul George (1.8)

9. Gile Pile:Joel Embiid (1.9)

10. Ganandorf: King James (1.10)

11. Kenny Mack: Kyrie Irving (1.11)

12. Taenggg: Bradley Beal(1.12)

 

Round 2

1.  Taenggg: Jimmy Butler (2.1)

2.  Kenny Mack: Kawhi Leonard (2.2)

3. Ganandorf: Rudy Gobert (2.3)

4. Gile Pile: Andre Drummond (2.4)

5. Turner46 Jrue Holiday (2.5)

6. Slmroz: Nikola Vucevic (2.6)

7. StifleTower2: Kemba Walker (2.7)

8.  Styler: Devin Booker (2.8)

 9. christian: Myles Turner (2.9)

10 Simsanityy179: Lamarcus Aldridge (2.10)

11.Iowncrazyhair: Russell Westbrook (2.11)

12Trae Young (2.12)

 

Round 3

1. Bettercallhinkie: John Collins 
2. Iowncrazyhair: Ben Simmons 
3. Simsanityy179: Clint Capela
4. Christian:  Draymond Green
5. Styler: Kristaps Porzingis
6. Stifletower2: Donovan Mitchell
7. Slmroz: Deandre Ayton 
8. turner46: Luka Doncic
9. gilepile:  Pascal Siakam
10. Ganandorf -Buddy Heild
11. Kenny Mack -Tobias Harris
12. taengg -Mike Conley

 

Round 4

1.Taenggg: Chris Paul (4.1)
2.Kenny Mack: Robert Covington (4.2)
3.Ganandorf: D'Angelo Russell (4.3)
4.Gile Pile: Kyle Lowry (4.4)
5.Turner46: Eric Bledsoe (4.5)
6.Slmroz: DeMar Derozan (4.6)
7. StifleTower2: Mitchell Robinson 
8. Styler: Zion Williamson 
9. christianLauri Markkanen
10.Simsanityy179: Otto Porter
11.Iowncrazyhair: Khris Middleton
12.BetterCallHinkie: De’Aaron Fox 🦊

 

Round 5

1. Bettercallhinkie: Demarcus Cousins 
2. Iowncrazyhair: Jayson Tatum 
3. Simsanityy179: Brook Lopez
4. Christian:  Blake Griffin 
5. Styler: Victor Oladipo 
6. StifleTower2: Al Horford
7. Slmroz: Montrezl Harrell
8.Turner 46:  J Jackson Jr
9. Gile Pile: M Gasol
10. Ganandorf: CJ Mccollum
11. Kenny Mack: Zach Lavine
12. Taenggg: Kevin Love

 

Round 6

1. Taenggg: Jamal Murray
2. Kenny Mack Derrick Favors
3.Ganandorf: Bam Abedayo
4.Gile Pile: Danillo Gallinari
5.turner46: Ja Morant
6.Slmroz: TJ Warren
7. StifleTower2: Jonas Valanciuas 
8.Styler: Terry Rozier
9. Christian: Ricky Rubio
10.Simsanityy179: Malcom Brogdan 
11.Iowncrazyhair: Aaron Gordon
12. Bettercallhinkie: Hassan Whiteside

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9 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Maybe Gallagher is right that there are more bigs in the middle rounds this year than years prior. 


Agree. One of the benefits from this mock is that now I'm aware of how PF/C heavy current ranking is. And there are still more C bargains available.

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I'm going to continue my trend of drafting mid-tier bigs with Ibaka at 78.  He was ranked 62nd last season in per game/56th in totals.  Doesn't miss many games, has played 74 or more the past 3 seasons.  Seems like he's been around forever, but he is only 29, and I don't sense a decline.  Projects to maintain around 15/8 with a three and 1.5 blocks, splits of 50/80/1.5 TO.  Dunno why he isn't a fantasy darling anymore, I guess he's just not as sexy as the players under 25.  But he's as solid as they come, even in his current role.    

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Posted (edited)

For me - another pick from Pacers. They seem to have their starting lineup set in stone, at least until Oladipo comes back and gets ready to play a bigger role.
But even then, Lamb should play meaningful minutes backing up multiple positions or maybe even start at SF in case Pacers go small. Being around his prime, Jeremy looks like another relatively safe pick.

Edited by slmroz

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I'm going to continue my trend of drafting mid-tier bigs with Ibaka at 78.  He was ranked 62nd last season in per game/56th in totals.  Doesn't miss many games, has played 74 or more the past 3 seasons.  Seems like he's been around forever, but he is only 29, and I don't sense a decline.  Projects to maintain around 15/8 with a three and 1.5 blocks, splits of 50/80/1.5 TO.  Dunno why he isn't a fantasy darling anymore, I guess he's just not as sexy as the players under 25.  But he's as solid as they come, even in his current role.    

@StifleTower2 Sound reasoning but two things to note:

1. Post Gasol trade (last 2 months) -  Ibaka's minutes dipped to 23mpg (instead of 27+) with 12.5 ppg (instead of 15), somehow fg/rbs/3s/blks stayed up or even improved

2. Ibaka is a 2 cat player - Rbs + Blks (maybe FG% as well) and had a surprisingly strong year in all of those last year. A drop in Blks would crush his value

All that said, there is a strong possibility that TO makes some moves this season and perhaps he can do better in more limited minutes

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How much time do we have on the clock between picks? 

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9 minutes ago, chaiway said:

@StifleTower2 Sound reasoning but two things to note:

1. Post Gasol trade (last 2 months) -  Ibaka's minutes dipped to 23mpg (instead of 27+) with 12.5 ppg (instead of 15), somehow fg/rbs/3s/blks stayed up or even improved

2. Ibaka is a 2 cat player - Rbs + Blks (maybe FG% as well) and had a surprisingly strong year in all of those last year. A drop in Blks would crush his value

All that said, there is a strong possibility that TO makes some moves this season and perhaps he can do better in more limited minutes

If you care about efficiency he’s a 5 cat player (rebs/blocks plus all five efficiency cats).  You have to include FT% and TO in there if you’re going to base his value off of a standard deviation model, even if his FT was on low volume, and most people ignore TO.  Six cats if he can hit over 1.5 threes which he could, this year was a down year for his threes.  Seven cats if you consider that 15 ppg is the median and he scored above that.  Really he just doesn’t provide any assists/steals....Re a drop in blocks, you could say that about anyone, that a drop in their best cat will hurt their value.  It could happen, I don’t 

 

 

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Sorry, I couldn't edit my whole response.

 

1) Even after the Gasol trade, he finished 72nd in the last two months.  I think what you're trying to say is that he outperformed his expected value on 23 mpg.  But idk if 27 to 23 is that big of a difference, if it allows him to expend greater effort in his limited time.  Considering he was 72nd and I got him at 78th then meh, he's not a steal, but I strongly doubt he won't hit top 75. 

 

2) If you're using a standard deviation model then he’s a 5 cat player (rebs/blocks/points plus FG/TO).  Six cats if he can hit over 1.5 threes which he could, this year was a down year for his threes.  Seven cats if he goes over 80% from the line, which he's done before.  Really he just doesn’t provide any assists/steals....Re a drop in blocks, you could say that about anyone, that a drop in their best cat will hurt their value.  It could happen, I don’t foresee it, and I'm going to base my decisions off a predicted drop that may not happen.

 

3) As you mentioned, Toronto might make moves.  Gasol is 34, I like him as person, but I don't think he gets another title.  He's older and declining more rapidly than Ibaka.  They're both on expiring contracts.  Toronto said they aren't trading them which means one of two things: 1) they value both and therefore Ibaka should retain value as they're going to make it work; 2) it's a smokescreen but they don't want to lower either's value.  Either way, Ibaka has a top 75 floor, or he gets traded.  I think due to his performance over the last three years as well as durability that Ibaka's floor in totals is top 75 and has top 50 upside.  His ceiling isn't what it used to be but his floor is rock solid.

 

I ran about ten players through BBM and of them Ibaka made my team look the best.  Smart was #2, but I needed a F anyway.

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As a spectator, Bagley at the beginning of the 7th round is my favourite pick thus far. I believe a large part of Joeger being fired was how he handled Bagley during his rookie season and somewhat restricting him. With that said I think Luke Walton will come in with a clear understanding of Vlade's goals and plans for Bagley going forward. Obviously Luke doesn't have a great track record with young guys returning fantasy value  (Dloading, Ball, Ingram) but we're talking about a guy who will fill up the box score score as long as he's out there. In the 7th round I think you're getting a-lot of potential upside for a moderate level of risk

 As per Basketball Reference in the 15 games he played 30+ minutes (33.2 MPG) his averages were 21.2/10.9 with 1.5blks/0.8 stls on 51%/71%. 

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Posted (edited)

Lmao @ my no center injury riddled squad 😅

Edited by taenggg

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One can argue that it is too early to draft Derrick White, but I just couldn't pass  om 1/1/1 potential. I think his minutes will increase to 27-28 this year. With Murray healthy  and not being a scoring threat I think White will score more, in 10-13 range

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