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Mikhov

Chris Paul 2019-2020 Outlook

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We know he’s old and overpaid, BUT he will likely be compelled to prove it / showcase himself while in OKC to build value.

If he does get traded, it will be assuredly to a team that is all-in for a deep run and IF he can stay healthy, he should put up quality numbers.

Could be sneaky good this season for a pick in the twenties

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3 hours ago, Mikhov said:

We know he’s old and overpaid, BUT he will likely be compelled to prove it / showcase himself while in OKC to build value.

If he does get traded, it will be assuredly to a team that is all-in for a deep run and IF he can stay healthy, he should put up quality numbers.

Could be sneaky good this season for a pick in the twenties

 

I wouldn't touch him in the 20's...top 20 is his absolute best outcome this year, at probably 50-60 games max.  So if you're taking him in the 20's you're not setting yourself up to extract maximum value.  Now if you can get him in the 40s-50s, that would be more ideal.  I would personally go with Trae or Fox over Paul if you're looking at PG in that early round range.  

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I wouldn't touch him in the 20's...top 20 is his absolute best outcome this year, at probably 50-60 games max.  So if you're taking him in the 20's you're not setting yourself up to extract maximum value.  Now if you can get him in the 40s-50s, that would be more ideal.  I would personally go with Trae or Fox over Paul if you're looking at PG in that early round range.  

 

Not sure he would reach the 40-50 range off name value alone, but I agree that he ideally gets picked up later. He would make for a great late third or early fourth pick IMO.

I would personally pick him over Trae or Fox (Trey: No steals, poor fg% and minimal contributions outside of points/assists/3PM and not sold on Fox as an early point guard just yet because of his shaky efficiency cats and low 3PM) - but that’s also because I don’t get deterred by injury prone tags, as you can’t predict em. 

All I know is, OKC sitting him or Paul pouting a la Jimmy will benefit neither, and its worth the risk, as he does have the opportunity to produce on a team with decent players (Gallo, Adams, Shai).

17 ppg (2 3PM), Good fg/ft, 4 boards, 8 apg, 2 spg with <2.5 TO is doable in OKC, Miami or Orlando (the latter 2 where he seems likely to go if ever)

Edited by Mikhov

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55 minutes ago, Mikhov said:

 

Not sure he would reach the 40-50 range off name value alone, but I agree that he ideally gets picked up later. He would make for a great late third or early fourth pick IMO.

I would personally pick him over Trae or Fox (Trey: No steals, poor fg% and minimal contributions outside of points/assists/3PM and not sold on Fox as an early point guard just yet because of his shaky efficiency cats and low 3PM) - but that’s also because I don’t get deterred by injury prone tags, as you can’t predict em. 

All I know is, OKC sitting him or Paul pouting a la Jimmy will benefit neither, and its worth the risk, as he does have the opportunity to produce on a team with decent players (Gallo, Adams, Shai).

17 ppg (2 3PM), Good fg/ft, 4 boards, 8 apg, 2 spg with <2.5 TO is doable in OKC, Miami or Orlando (the latter 2 where he seems likely to go if ever)

 

I'm going to say 10 assists.  55 games played.  

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On a per game basis he can be a top 10 player although top 20 is more likely. Obviously the issue is games played and he could be worth the risk in rounds 4/5.

If my earlier picks are more durable players i’ll gladly roll the dice on CP3

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7 hours ago, Mikhov said:

But that’s also because I don’t get deterred by injury prone tags, as you can’t predict em. 

All I know is, OKC sitting him or Paul pouting a la Jimmy will benefit neither, and its worth the risk, as he does have the opportunity to produce on a team with decent players (Gallo, Adams, Shai).

17 ppg (2 3PM), Good fg/ft, 4 boards, 8 apg, 2 spg with <2.5 TO is doable in OKC, Miami or Orlando (the latter 2 where he seems likely to go if ever)

That argument only really works for players in their prime who have been *wrongly* given the injury prone tag due to a couple of freak injuries that could have happened to anyone.  It doesn't work for 34-35 year old players who in the last 3 years have played 61, 58, 58 games.  At 35 you're still as strong and fast as you once were, but your recovery times gets slower.  You can work out as hard as you once did, maybe harder, but when you wake up you feel as if you were hit by a truck.  Things start to add up, things you never noticed before: chronic hip pain, wrist pain, forearm pain.  No one can beat father time. 

 

His value on a per game basis in 16-17 was 8th, 9th in 17-18, 21st in 18-19.  I think the 21st was an outlier due to playing with Harden but I also think he's on an inevitable decline.  No one is doubting his per game statistics and he probably could finish top 15 in per game.  The problem is I'm certain he plays under 60 games.  He was ranked 46th in totals last year.  I don't foresee a miracle happening and him all of a sudden playing 70+ games for the first time in four years, at the age of 34.  In H2H gamboling on CP3s health is an even bigger risk imo than taking MitchRob in the same round.   You want to draft players who are going to be playing in the fantasy playoffs.  In roto he can be a solid player, I'd just shave off 25% of his value for missed games.  In H2H he's close to a DND draft for me, I think I can get players who will actually play during the fantasy playoffs, but I might speculate past the 5th round.  Roto, I'd just look at the totals (not per game) and pick him 3rd or 4th round.

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It depends who's available at my draft position, but one thing I know is when he plays he'll be really good. That being said I would bet cash that he sits back to backs. They're gonna want him as a trade piece so health will be big. There's no doubt he can help a playoff team and I hope it's Orlando

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Al this Orlando talk might have me draft him lol go magic! hope they deal for him 

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5 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

Al this Orlando talk might have me draft him lol go magic! hope they deal for him 

 

A cripple joining a crippling franchise. Seems like a match lol.

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Just now, Trench Mob said:

 

A cripple joining a crippling franchise. Seems like a match lol.

 

Image result for sad laugh.gif

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Just now, kmoore1521 said:

 

Image result for sad laugh.gif

 

Ah. I'm just messin with ya little brother. I respect the Magic more than most of the East. At least they've represented a decade ago.

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I just can't see him playing for the Thunder all season.  Either he's moved (and value takes a dip) or he stays and gets loads of DNPs.  The Thunder's future is not Chris Paul.

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Chris Paul is not a future in any team, but at the same time he is still valuable piece in any team. Therefore I can't see difference why he can't continue in Thunder if in all other teams he also have the same role.

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With all this talk, what is his value? I’ve seen him go later (around 40-45) in H2H drafts. I think most people start off with him being a DND player but at some point, and at that value, someone is going to take him (like me). So realistically, what’s his value? The talent to be a top 20 player is there obviously. But it seems as if no one wants a part of him which would mean that in a trade scenario, he’s probably not worth a top 50 player in return. As someone who drafted him because he saw value, this thread is scaring me a bit.

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29 minutes ago, andy1234 said:

With all this talk, what is his value? I’ve seen him go later (around 40-45) in H2H drafts. I think most people start off with him being a DND player but at some point, and at that value, someone is going to take him (like me). So realistically, what’s his value? The talent to be a top 20 player is there obviously. But it seems as if no one wants a part of him which would mean that in a trade scenario, he’s probably not worth a top 50 player in return. As someone who drafted him because he saw value, this thread is scaring me a bit.

 

Trading for him now will likely be the cheapest you will get him.

If he puts together a month or two of top 30 value then his price will normalize because he has name value to back it up.

Health aside, the reason he tanked in value last year is the career low fg he posted. He still averaged 15 ppg with 2 threes, 4 rpg, 8 apg and 2 steals with 2.5 TO, in a down year - all of which are excellent and impactful (sans the points).

He won’t be forced into Morey-ball this season, so his fg should trend up. Only concerns are: health/age and where he ends up traded come seasons end.

Anyone trading for him (in real life) is going all-in, so  he will likely start and get atleast 25mpg wherever he lands.

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This is precisely the sort of package that I mentioned in the offseason.  CP3 is almost a negative asset at this point given his contract.  However, he can push a playoff team over the top and win now. If the Thunder also include a first round pick then that's a steal.  There's no need to have Augustin if you have CP3.  Fournier is trash.  Gordon hasn't really developed as one might hope.  Not giving up too much to get him, even for a rental.  Have fun trying to develop Gordon.  The Thunder do it obviously just to dump a contract.  

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He could easily go in mid 3rd if any given league has a strong run on PGs, someone could semi-panic and take him early. In tough leagues that's probably as early as he will go. The chance he will play more games this year seems like a risk that isn't worth taking unless driven to do so by need.

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picked him at end of the 4th (48th pick) and hoping he destroys all the SGA fanbois by playing 32 mins and starting 72 games 🤣

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I just got this guy on the 5th round..any idea if he will get traded?what do we expect from him this season?

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52 minutes ago, DB11 said:

I just got this guy on the 5th round..any idea if he will get traded?what do we expect from him this season?

I don't see how he gets traded with his contract but who knows.

expect top 30 per game production for 50-55 games, injured for the rest

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I got him at 60. I'll be looking to ship him off early if he performs.

Edited by ssolitare

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He's overpaid in reallife, but a damn bargain in Fantasy world this year. 

 

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After getting unceremoniously dumped over the offseason, and being freed from Harden's ball dominant ways, I'm hoping he's motivated this year to prove something.

On upside, I could see a return to Clippers form, feeding Adams for dunks and having Gallo, and SGA for spacing - but this is really a stretch goal. I drafted him mid 30 and feel pretty good about it.

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