Chrizz

Jrue Holiday 2019-2020 Outlook

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The Rotoworld guys are really high on him this year. They recommend drafting him in the late first round (Gallagher ranks him 9th overall). I get that AD is gone now but how will the additions of Ball, Ingram, Reddick, Favors and especially Zion affact his usage and stats. Dont you expect a drop in his counting stats, especially points? 2nd round ok but I wont pick him in the 1st... 

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He will be the leader on the team, and he will teach the young guys especially Lonzo how to be a PG. Do I think he is worth a 2nd round or even a 1st round pick? No. Pelicans are a young team not trying to make the playoffs. I expect 3rd round value until the Pelicans realize they need to trade him for young assets or picks. It’s the Zion & Ball Show now.

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2 hours ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

He will be the leader on the team, and he will teach the young guys especially Lonzo how to be a PG. Do I think he is worth a 2nd round or even a 1st round pick? No. Pelicans are a young team not trying to make the playoffs. I expect 3rd round value until the Pelicans realize they need to trade him for young assets or picks. It’s the Zion & Ball Show now.

I don't think they trade him this year.  Of course, he's not "untradeable" or anything, if they get the right offer, they'll take it.  But he's also under contract for the next three years, so he's not an expiring that a contender would throw everything at.  But that's not the main reason I think that.  He could just be saying what people want to hear, but he seems all in and seeing what this team will do and mentoring them.  One would think NOP would be interested in keeping around a mentor, too, especially if they can get more for him next year than this year.

https://www.nola.com/sports/pelicans/article_64c9e688-abfd-11e9-b4b3-734b3d6472b8.html 

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I also think 9th pick is too early. Holiday is good 2nd rounder.

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9th pick is too early and I don't understand Gallagher's reasoning.  Holiday's finishes the last three years are: 22, 21, 51.  Gallagher argues that Holiday will benefit from AD's absence.  But AD and Holiday had good chemistry.  AD is replaced by Lonzo and Zion.  I know that sometimes Lonzo and Zion will sit so Jrue will handle the ball.  Still, I see him handling the ball less which will translate into fewer assists, but more scoring and threes.  I'd view him as sort of a Kemba style player next year, with more stocks:  24/6/5 with 2.5 threes, 1.6 steals, .8 blocks.  He's somewhat unique in that his 47% FG doesn't hurt you, but he only shoots 78% from the line so on balance it evens out.  He's not the FT% anchor that Lillard or Kemba are.  I think that makes him better for roto, but worse in H2H where you could punt FG%.  His 3 TO per game is also pretty bad in 9 cat, worse than Kemba.  I'd probably take him at the turn, 12/13 so it's not that far off from 9.  

 

But here's what kills me...Gallagher constantly talks about not drafting players over 30, and he wants all of his guys to play 80 games.  Jrue is 29 so he's pushing the limit there.  Last three seasons he's played: 67, 81, 67 games.  Not awful but it falls short of Gallagher's goals.   

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12 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

9th pick is too early and I don't understand Gallagher's reasoning.  Holiday's finishes the last three years are: 22, 21, 51.  Gallagher argues that Holiday will benefit from AD's absence.  But AD and Holiday had good chemistry.  AD is replaced by Lonzo and Zion.  I know that sometimes Lonzo and Zion will sit so Jrue will handle the ball.  Still, I see him handling the ball less which will translate into fewer assists, but more scoring and threes.  I'd view him as sort of a Kemba style player next year, with more stocks:  24/6/5 with 2.5 threes, 1.6 steals, .8 blocks.  He's somewhat unique in that his 47% FG doesn't hurt you, but he only shoots 78% from the line so on balance it evens out.  He's not the FT% anchor that Lillard or Kemba are.  I think that makes him better for roto, but worse in H2H where you could punt FG%.  His 3 TO per game is also pretty bad in 9 cat, worse than Kemba.  I'd probably take him at the turn, 12/13 so it's not that far off from 9.  

 

But here's what kills me...Gallagher constantly talks about not drafting players over 30, and he wants all of his guys to play 80 games.  Jrue is 29 so he's pushing the limit there.  Last three seasons he's played: 67, 81, 67 games.  Not awful but it falls short of Gallagher's goals.   

 

I prefer Kemba over Jrue Holiday this season. Hes an iron man and I think its easier to build around him as a ft anchor and maybe he can get his fg% to 45% in Boston. Gonna target Kemba in the 2nd round for sure.

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1 minute ago, Chrizz said:

 

I prefer Kemba over Jrue Holiday this season. Hes an iron man and I think its easier to build around him as a ft anchor and maybe he can get his fg% to 45% in Boston. Gonna target Kemba in the 2nd round for sure.

Lillard and Kemba don't produce sexy stats.  Just typical guard stats, which is fine.  You pick them for their durability.  That's it.  

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Jrue in the first round? Um yeah, I drafted him in the late second last year in Roto. Really really good pick when he played. Love the out of position blocks. Helped me win. 

But that is where he should continue to reside. The second round. Too many great players even with load management, which is going to sweep the NBA even further.

Load management is going to play a significant factor in how I draft going forward definitely, even strictly being in Roto (permanently retired in H2H now). And although I don’t think Jrue is going to be a load management casualty, he is still not a first round pick even with Griffin saying it’s “Jrue’s team.”

They have weapons and scoring is just not going to be there to get him at that level.

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Posted (edited)

I'm thinking him & Kemba are close. And I'd be happy with either one.

Edited by wildcat62

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3 hours ago, wildcat62 said:

I'm thinking him & Kemba are close. And I'd be happy with either one.

 

Would prefer Jrues defensive stats over Kemba’s ft% and threes, since most first round picks will likely have good ft% anyway.

Their assists and scoring should be similar since both of those teams have other ballhandlers and mouths to feed - though Jrue’s role may diminish as the season goes on, while Kemba’s is safe.

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On 7/24/2019 at 11:50 AM, StifleTower2 said:

9th pick is too early and I don't understand Gallagher's reasoning.  Holiday's finishes the last three years are: 22, 21, 51.  Gallagher argues that Holiday will benefit from AD's absence.  But AD and Holiday had good chemistry.  AD is replaced by Lonzo and Zion.  I know that sometimes Lonzo and Zion will sit so Jrue will handle the ball.  Still, I see him handling the ball less which will translate into fewer assists, but more scoring and threes.  I'd view him as sort of a Kemba style player next year, with more stocks:  24/6/5 with 2.5 threes, 1.6 steals, .8 blocks.  He's somewhat unique in that his 47% FG doesn't hurt you, but he only shoots 78% from the line so on balance it evens out.  He's not the FT% anchor that Lillard or Kemba are.  I think that makes him better for roto, but worse in H2H where you could punt FG%.  His 3 TO per game is also pretty bad in 9 cat, worse than Kemba.  I'd probably take him at the turn, 12/13 so it's not that far off from 9.  

 

But here's what kills me...Gallagher constantly talks about not drafting players over 30, and he wants all of his guys to play 80 games.  Jrue is 29 so he's pushing the limit there.  Last three seasons he's played: 67, 81, 67 games.  Not awful but it falls short of Gallagher's goals.   

 

Picking in the back half of the first round is YUCK.  I mean, after the top 6 (Jokic, Harden, KAT, Steph, Giannis, AD) it seems like all bad value from there on out.  Maybe Lillard at 7 for FT and durability.  That kind of sucks at 7 tho.  Then you have a blob of load management / injury risks / not quite 1st round players ala PG, Embiid, Kawhi, Drummo, Jrue, Beal, Kyrie, Kemba, Vuc, Butler are all kind of in play, and perhaps one or two of those fall back to the end of the 2nd round...leaving the first few teams at the front of the draft stacked.   

 

If you do take Holiday in the back end of round 1, who is now your ideal pairings to start your team?  Assume PG, Kawhi, Embiid are already drafted.

 

Holiday / Kyrie

Holiday / Kemba

Holiday / Beal

Holiday / Drummond

Holiday / Vuc

Holiday / Butler

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30 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Picking in the back half of the first round is YUCK.  I mean, after the top 6 (Jokic, Harden, KAT, Steph, Giannis, AD) it seems like all bad value from there on out.  Maybe Lillard at 7 for FT and durability.  That kind of sucks at 7 tho.  Then you have a blob of load management / injury risks / not quite 1st round players ala PG, Embiid, Kawhi, Drummo, Jrue, Beal, Kyrie, Kemba, Vuc, Butler are all kind of in play, and perhaps one or two of those fall back to the end of the 2nd round...leaving the first few teams at the front of the draft stacked.   

 

If you do take Holiday in the back end of round 1, who is now your ideal pairings to start your team?  Assume PG, Kawhi, Embiid are already drafted.

 

Holiday / Kyrie

Holiday / Kemba

Holiday / Beal

Holiday / Drummond

Holiday / Vuc

Holiday / Butler

Agreed that anything past 5 is terrible. But I don’t know why Jokic is the consensus for 6/7.  He’s never finished first round value in per game, he’s ranked 12/13/18.  This year the Nuggets even more stacked.  I get it, he’s a center who’s damn near 20/10/10 on efficient numbers. He gets more assists/steals than Lillard...but people probably underestimate how his low blocks and high to for a big, relatively low scoring, impact his z score.  Whereas, Lillard is the only player who has been top 6 in totals for three straight years.  Not that Lillard is exciting in the first, he’s a marginally better Kemba.  Yuck.

 

As for Holiday, Drummond probably.  Jrue is the best point guard for punt FT%.  Drummond is still underrated.  If you recall, I traded my first round player in Above the Rim and got Jrue/Drummond with my second and third.  Parlayed those two into AD.  Sweet. 

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Picking in the back half of the first round is YUCK.  I mean, after the top 6 (Jokic, Harden, KAT, Steph, Giannis, AD) it seems like all bad value from there on out.  Maybe Lillard at 7 for FT and durability.  That kind of sucks at 7 tho.  Then you have a blob of load management / injury risks / not quite 1st round players ala PG, Embiid, Kawhi, Drummo, Jrue, Beal, Kyrie, Kemba, Vuc, Butler are all kind of in play, and perhaps one or two of those fall back to the end of the 2nd round...leaving the first few teams at the front of the draft stacked.   

 

If you do take Holiday in the back end of round 1, who is now your ideal pairings to start your team?  Assume PG, Kawhi, Embiid are already drafted.

 

Holiday / Kyrie

Holiday / Kemba

Holiday / Beal

Holiday / Drummond

Holiday / Vuc

Holiday / Butler

 

George, Leonard, Vucevic, and Lillard are all solid picks after those 6.  I don't see how any of them are bad value.  George finished top 3.  Leonard should play more games.

I owned Jokic and Vuc last year and Vuc was much more consistent.  Finished at a higher rank than Jokic.  Consistently putting up 21-12-4-1-1-1 on only 31 mpg.

Drummond is a top 5 player if you're punting ft too.

Edited by Fantasyscrub
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Posted (edited)

Kyrie and Embiid are also solid first round picks.  Now once you get to the late first round and early second, that's when things get murky.

 

Now you're choosing between the Butlers, Goberts, Westbrooks, etc.  Players with injury history or big holes in their game

Edited by Fantasyscrub

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1 hour ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

George, Leonard, Vucevic, and Lillard are all solid picks after those 6.  I don't see how any of them are bad value.  George finished top 3.  Leonard should play more games.

I owned Jokic and Vuc last year and Vuc was much more consistent.  Finished at a higher rank than Jokic.  Consistently putting up 21-12-4-1-1-1 on only 31 mpg.

Drummond is a top 5 player if you're punting ft too.

 

Who could all have been taken at the turn or even later last year.  I think its seems like bad value because we're missing past mainstays in the first round like Lebron, Durant, Wall, CP3, Oladipo (last year), and now with load management and injuries - Kawhi, Embiid, Kyrie.  That's about 7 sure fire first rounders in the past that are now no longer delivering the same value, which leaves a huge void in the back of round 1, starting from about pick 7 onwards.  You can take Leonard or Embiid there but you're more than likely getting only 60 ish games.  That's nowhere near what you want from your first rounder.  Vucevic was fire last year, but before that was often injured and finished 27, 48, 27 per game the last 3 years before that.  Dame is great but low steals + assists and below average FG.  Drummond is totally worth it but in roto you're either punting or trying to surround him with FT shooters.  But his durability and elite production make him a great strategic pick in the back half of round 1.  

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49 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Who could all have been taken at the turn or even later last year.  I think its seems like bad value because we're missing past mainstays in the first round like Lebron, Durant, Wall, CP3, Oladipo (last year), and now with load management and injuries - Kawhi, Embiid, Kyrie.  That's about 7 sure fire first rounders in the past that are now no longer delivering the same value, which leaves a huge void in the back of round 1, starting from about pick 7 onwards.  You can take Leonard or Embiid there but you're more than likely getting only 60 ish games.  That's nowhere near what you want from your first rounder.  Vucevic was fire last year, but before that was often injured and finished 27, 48, 27 per game the last 3 years before that.  Dame is great but low steals + assists and below average FG.  Drummond is totally worth it but in roto you're either punting or trying to surround him with FT shooters.  But his durability and elite production make him a great strategic pick in the back half of round 1.  

 

I think Lebron returns 1st round value again.  Everything else was spot on

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Ended up getting Jrue Holiday at 23 to pair with (2 overall) James Harden. Still drafting the rest of the team.

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9 hours ago, wildcat62 said:

Ended up getting Jrue Holiday at 23 to pair with (2 overall) James Harden. Still drafting the rest of the team.

steal

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On 7/24/2019 at 5:50 PM, StifleTower2 said:

9th pick is too early and I don't understand Gallagher's reasoning.  Holiday's finishes the last three years are: 22, 21, 51.  Gallagher argues that Holiday will benefit from AD's absence.  But AD and Holiday had good chemistry.  AD is replaced by Lonzo and Zion.  I know that sometimes Lonzo and Zion will sit so Jrue will handle the ball.  Still, I see him handling the ball less which will translate into fewer assists, but more scoring and threes.  I'd view him as sort of a Kemba style player next year, with more stocks:  24/6/5 with 2.5 threes, 1.6 steals, .8 blocks.  He's somewhat unique in that his 47% FG doesn't hurt you, but he only shoots 78% from the line so on balance it evens out.  He's not the FT% anchor that Lillard or Kemba are.  I think that makes him better for roto, but worse in H2H where you could punt FG%.  His 3 TO per game is also pretty bad in 9 cat, worse than Kemba.  I'd probably take him at the turn, 12/13 so it's not that far off from 9.  

 

But here's what kills me...Gallagher constantly talks about not drafting players over 30, and he wants all of his guys to play 80 games.  Jrue is 29 so he's pushing the limit there.  Last three seasons he's played: 67, 81, 67 games.  Not awful but it falls short of Gallagher's goals.   

Bingo. I do kind of enjoy Mike Gallagher. I do however think he overlooks his own methodology on a consistent basis to get 'his guys'. I think it's pretty obvious he throws his own logic out the window when he becomes infatuated with certain players. Lately he's been talking about taking Bam in the 2nd. I love Jrue as most do. I think I have to give the edge to Kemba here personally. I view him as much safer. That's just me though. I also think playing with a way better roster might unlock some things we haven't seen from him before.

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What's everyone's thought with the new dynamics to the Pels. Blurb's are touting him as a top 15 player, but do we see his assists number spiking down a little with Lonzo handling the ball more now and points going up since he'll be in charge of scoring more alongside Zion?

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32 minutes ago, SanFranz said:

What's everyone's thought with the new dynamics to the Pels. Blurb's are touting him as a top 15 player, but do we see his assists number spiking down a little with Lonzo handling the ball more now and points going up since he'll be in charge of scoring more alongside Zion?

I do think his assists will spike down some. I absolutely love everything about him as a real life player. I think he's being viewed by some at what is above his ceiling. I don't see how he could get to top 10 personally if his numbers last year couldn't do it because they were outstanding. If he's taking more 3s his percentages are likely to take a hit. His FT% is just ok, his turnovers have spiked a bit. He's a perfect locked in top 20 pick. 16-20 to me. I would not take him higher in any setting.

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59 minutes ago, SanFranz said:

What's everyone's thought with the new dynamics to the Pels. Blurb's are touting him as a top 15 player, but do we see his assists number spiking down a little with Lonzo handling the ball more now and points going up since he'll be in charge of scoring more alongside Zion?

 

Feels like Oladipo deja-vu for me. He's not that level of a player.

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9 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

 

Feels like Oladipo deja-vu for me. He's not that level of a player.

Was the player I was going to name drop as well. It does remind me a lot of him last year. Both guys need absolutely everything to go perfectly to return value if you are taking at the 1st/2nd turn.

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28 minutes ago, Benjamin1984 said:

Was the player I was going to name drop as well. It does remind me a lot of him last year. Both guys need absolutely everything to go perfectly to return value if you are taking at the 1st/2nd turn.

was 21 overall 2 years ago with a less appealing line. 2 less pts, 1.7 less dimes, 0.3 less threes, (was more efficient in t/o, ft%, fg%)

think hes a fine pick around the turn. don't sleep on the 0.8 blks the last 2 years.

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Looks like he will begin the year as the starting SF given Zion’s injury. What are the chances he gets the position eligibility in Yahoo? How do they determine when to add the extra position?

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