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Bradley Beal 2019-2020 Outlook

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Wow, so many people sleeping on the Pacers being a top 4 team in the East

Having a hard time placing Beal, Butler or Kyrie - They’re all high fg guards who get good attempts from the line, will all likely get 20+ppg/5rpg/5apg with a steal (Butler should lead) and threes (Beal should lead) with modest TO

All of them have health concerns which is probably what drops them out of the first (Jimmy and Ky’s are well documented, Beal had a few injury plagued seasons - stress fracture on his leg iirc early on) and will all likely play late into the season for seeding (beal for contract).

Who ya got?

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11 hours ago, Mikhov said:

Wow, so many people sleeping on the Pacers being a top 4 team in the East

Having a hard time placing Beal, Butler or Kyrie - They’re all high fg guards who get good attempts from the line, will all likely get 20+ppg/5rpg/5apg with a steal (Butler should lead) and threes (Beal should lead) with modest TO

All of them have health concerns which is probably what drops them out of the first (Jimmy and Ky’s are well documented, Beal had a few injury plagued seasons - stress fracture on his leg iirc early on) and will all likely play late into the season for seeding (beal for contract).

Who ya got?

 

TBH, I'd love to be picking at the turn of a 12 or 14 team draft and potentially snagging 2 of those 3 guys. I'd probably prioritize as Beal/Jimmy/Kyrie, but it's close, and Beal just edges out with a cleaner bill of health in recent years. But you know all three will have something to prove, and it really boils down to who you think has least injury/shutdown risk, and what stats you want to prioritize (3s vs stl vs ast).

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Just read that Beal is eligible to sign a 5-year, $253 million dollar contract next summer if he makes an all NBA team. Given that incentive and his recent durability, I'm looking to take him at the turn of the first/second round. 

 

28/5/6 with 1.5 steals on 48% shooting. Three 3PM per game is also probable

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52 minutes ago, justaguy said:

Just read that Beal is eligible to sign a 5-year, $253 million dollar contract next summer if he makes an all NBA team. Given that incentive and his recent durability, I'm looking to take him at the turn of the first/second round. 

 

28/5/6 with 1.5 steals on 48% shooting. Three 3PM per game is also probable

I don't see him doing it at 48% or with 1.5 steals, more like 46% and 1.1 but I agree with the counting stats and don't put 28 6 and 6 behind him with 3 3s. 

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just drafted beal at 11 ahead of kawhi, jimmy and kyrie. predict a big year for him.

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I've got pick 11. Are you taking Beal there ahead of Dame, Leonard, Irving and Butler in the case that all are available?

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8 minutes ago, flat_eric said:

I've got pick 11. Are you taking Beal there ahead of Dame, Leonard, Irving and Butler in the case that all are available?

Definitely not ahead of Dame, Butler is awash with Beal - pretty even IMO in their current situations. Leonard is better per game, but its a big risk as their is definitely some lingering knee/quad issues you could see clearly in the playoffs and rest in unknown with the Clippers as they aren't as deep as the Raptors and they are in a stronger conference - it's likely that he'll rest less, but still a lot of risk. I'd probably favour Beal over Leonard and definitely Beal over Kyrie. Kyrie is too fragile. It's fitting his alter-ego is "Uncle-Drew" because he has old-man knees.

There are other guys to consider in that range that people might be missing. To me Vucevic is a lock top 10 pick. I'd definitely have him ahead of all those guys (of course I'm talking roto, but can't see why it wouldn't be the same for H2H). LBJ is still an unreal player and should be picked around that mark; is he now an injury risk though? [it's a tough call, but he isn't the same risk-free pick as in the past - due to age, last season, and an Über thin Laker line-up]. Jrue Holiday: I'd pick him over Kyrie for sure and he's pretty close to Beal and Butler - at least should be in that discussion, could go ballistic this year and has nice running mates to play with. The other guy is Embiid. I'd take him over all of them (probably just behind Vucevic because of Vuce's super high-floor). Embiid could easily be top 5 on the back of a health season, but he could also get rested or injury again...more of a higher risk/reward type, but maybe this is his year? The talent is unquestionably there.

FWIW, here is my top 15 for roto 9-cat:

1. Curry          2. Towns        3. Harden      4. Davis     5. Giannis     6. Lillard     7. Jokic     8. George     
9. Vucevic     10. Embiid     11. James     12. Beal      13. Butler     14. Holiday     15. Siakam (Jokes🤣) Kemba

Top 5 are the elites (which means #5 is probably the best value pick this year - although Giannis FTs hurt). 6-10 is pretty even and then I see 11-14 as pretty even too.

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1 hour ago, Jake the snake said:

FWIW, here is my top 15 for roto 9-cat:

1. Curry          2. Towns        3. Harden      4. Davis     5. Giannis     6. Lillard     7. Jokic     8. George     
9. Vucevic     10. Embiid     11. James     12. Beal      13. Butler     14. Holiday     15. Siakam (Jokes🤣) Kemba

Top 5 are the elites (which means #5 is probably the best value pick this year - although Giannis FTs hurt). 6-10 is pretty even and then I see 11-14 as pretty even too.

Forgot Leonard...I'd slot him into 14 or 15 about even with Jrue, ahead of Kemba, making 11-15 a pretty even tear. Seems like three clear tears: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 this season IMO.

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Very realistic rankings. I like an, curry 1 and towns 2 and harden 3 sounds right 

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Posted (edited)

I feel like this is what we're getting with Dame until he falls off, whereas Beal could still get more assists and even possibly a 1-1-1 guy on decent percentages for a guard. Check his monthly splits last season. I love this guy.

Edited by MysticPeak
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On 8/27/2019 at 4:27 AM, Jake the snake said:

FWIW, here is my top 15 for roto 9-cat:

1. Curry          2. Towns        3. Harden      4. Davis     5. Giannis     6. Lillard     7. Jokic     8. George     
9. Vucevic     10. Embiid     11. James     12. Beal      13. Butler     14. Holiday     15. Siakam (Jokes🤣) Kemba

Top 5 are the elites (which means #5 is probably the best value pick this year - although Giannis FTs hurt). 6-10 is pretty even and then I see 11-14 as pretty even too.

 

I'm surprised you have PG so high. How many games are you expecting from him? I heard/read that he's expected to miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season.

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9 hours ago, v1n5anity said:

 

I'm surprised you have PG so high. How many games are you expecting from him? I heard/read that he's expected to miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season.

Yeah he was a hard one to place. I was basing it off missing an estimated 2 weeks. Maybe you could drop him further. If he was fit I'd move him to 6th, maybe even ahead of giannis (giannis FTs really suck esp for roto). But he's not fit... 

3 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

@Jake the snake    No Kyrie on the list?  I'm assuming you don't like his injuries / missed games?

Yeah kyrie behind Leonard, holiday, kemba, gobert, and probably Drummond too. 

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8 minutes ago, michael_scott said:

Any chance of Beal getting pg eligibility during the season? He seems to be the primary ballhandler on this team.

Doubtful, Ish Smith or Isaiah Thomas will be the person filling the PG slot even if Beal is the primary ball handler. 

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On 8/27/2019 at 5:27 PM, flat_eric said:

I've got pick 11. Are you taking Beal there ahead of Dame, Leonard, Irving and Butler in the case that all are available?

 

I took him at 12 last night ahead of all the those guys except Dame who was already gone 

 

I can see Beal putting up a top 7-9 season 

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Got the 8th and 9th pick in h2h 9 cat. Assuming Embiid is gone I'm planning on Lillard at 8 and really can't wrap my head around who to take at 9. Deciding between Beal, Lebron, Kawhi and Kyrie. Leaning towards Beal at this point but would love to hear feedback.

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Lillard Kyrie would be an awesome start. Kyrie fg bump fits nice with lillard and you are off to a great start in everything except Reb and blk while avoiding potn tial reaches from the next PG tiers and probably starting the run on that position for everyone else while getting the 2 clear best outside of curry and Harden. Stl and fg a bit low. But fg is less of an issue consider you have not drafted anything but PG so far. 

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On 8/28/2019 at 12:56 PM, MysticPeak said:

I feel like this is what we're getting with Dame until he falls off, whereas Beal could still get more assists and even possibly a 1-1-1 guy on decent percentages for a guard. Check his monthly splits last season. I love this guy.

Agree 110%

 

Beal is going to have a career year. He and coaches had all off season to game plan as him being the man. They've talked about his dimes going up to 7+ per game which is not much as he averaged  I think 28/5.6/5.8.

 

I can easily see 30/7/6 with 2 tres and great percentages. Sign me up EVERYWHERE! Love this dude as a core/foundation in my teams

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He won me the chip last season. If I am at the late end of the draft order will surely take him for my first round. Maybe pair him with Jrue or Jimmy

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

What are everyone's thoughts on a Beal/Drummond start near the turn?

Doesn't make as much sense to me as lebron/Drummond. Beal's ft% isn't amazing but it's still good and above 80% so why let it go to waste? Lebron and Drummond are a better combo. You could likely grab simmons in the 3rd and be off to a great start. If lebron is taken and you get beal, I'd pass on Drummond. Gobert would be a much better bet with Beal. 

Edited by johnval1362
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51 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Doesn't make as much sense to me as lebron/Drummond. Beal's ft% isn't amazing but it's still good and above 80% so why let it go to waste? Lebron and Drummond are a better combo. You could likely grab simmons in the 3rd and be off to a great start. If lebron is taken and you get beal, I'd pass on Drummond. Gobert would be a much better bet with Beal. 

 

Nice, I like Lebron / Drummond there at the turn too.  Lebrun's FG / reb / ast / points combo do it for me over Beal, but Beal likely to play more games imo.  Anyway with Lebron/Drummond you're in a full punt on FT.  I had a team like this and had to make up points and 3's later with CJ and TJ.  There's lots of lower level / lower usage steal / assist / 3's players later to fill your roster like Beverly, Green, Smart, Bridges x2, Huerter, FVV, White/Murray combo, etc etc.  With that start I would theoretically take Capela / Siakam / Simmons in the 3rd if available, then Lowry / Conley in the 4th, maybe lopez in the 5th, Adams in the 6th.        

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10 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

What are everyone's thoughts on a Beal/Drummond start near the turn?

Picking 12th I had this combo fall to me but went with Beal and Vuc (I just really liked the look of that combo - gave me a bit of everything )

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