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Gordon Hayward 2019-20 Season Outlook

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4 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

These BBM DO NOT know their stuff hhahahhaha. That's complete bs. They make tons of shock predictions so the next year they can say they "called the sleepers". Gallagher doesnt know s---, or he withholds his real information. These podcasters get views by making shock predictions they are extremely far from a reliable source of info. I can pick 10 sleepers and then brag about the 1 or 2 that played out too. They want views and nothing else. There's people on these forums that know way more than any fantasy professional represented by the media or trying to profit from fantasy. It hilarious how people give credit to people just because they took the time to write and article or have a podcast... slackers talking about taking adebayo early rounds paying for players ceilings leaving no room for bargains. They really don't know what they're talking about.  

BBM isn't a person, it's an analytic tool.  It can't be trash as long as the inputs are correct and the design is functional.  Josh Lloyd of BBM knows his stuff and there are other people who work in the analytics department as well.  

 

The mock was an "industry mock" with a lot of different contributors.  I agree about the industry as a whole being trash.  The qualifications for being a fantasy writer seem first to be a writer and then hopefully you've played fantasy basketball before.  Many of them play low buy-ins and like 2-3 leagues per year.  Whereas, there are people in these forums who play 20 bigger buy-in leagues every year, but don't necessarily post very much.

 

I agree about Gallagher in particular.  His entire schtick is identifying young players who could be sleepers then overdrafting them.  But if you listen to some of his other podcasts he says that he deliberately overhypes them so his readers will pay attention.  Idk if that's the truth or if he's backpedaling.  He said some interesting things last year such as he'd rather have Dejounte Murray than Kyrie, Jarrett Allen should be a third round pick, etc.  those were the ones I remember clearly.  This year it's take MitchRob in the second round, Trae too, Collins three, Pascal in the third, Bam in the fourth, Shai in the fifth.  Those are the biggest ones at least.  A great draft for Gallagher would be BPA in the first then: Trae, MitchRob, Collins, Bam, Shai.  I'm sure some of them will fail to reach their ADP and some will not. 

 

If I'm being genuine then this tactic is effective.  I think all of the aforementioned guys will be overdrafted but at least he alerted me to them so I can either pick them where I'm comfortable or know where his listeners are picking them.  Actually what I often do is draft his guys the year after he touts them.  He's moved on from Allen who was 82nd in per game, 55 in totals.  His listeners aren't targeting him this year, they've moved onto MitchRob, but I might. Big who can get 2 blocks without hurting your FT%, doesn't get injured, 6th rounder for me.  I probably wouldn't have paid attention to him without Gallagher.  The key for me is listening these guys then doing what I think is best.  They're not gods are they fools, they're merely one possible tool.

 

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27 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

.  He said some interesting things last year such as he'd rather have Dejounte Murray than Kyrie, Jarrett Allen should be a third round pick, etc.  those were the ones I remember clearly.  This year it's take MitchRob in the second round, Trae too, Collins three, Pascal in the third, Bam in the fourth, Shai in the fifth.  Those are the biggest ones at least.  A great draft for Gallagher would be BPA in the first then: Trae, MitchRob, Collins, Bam, Shai.  I'm sure some of them will fail to reach their ADP and some will not. 

If you're able to filter through what he is trying to do by lying to his listeners and subconsciously trick them into remembering sleepers that may outdue ADP, I guess it could be useful. I personally do not think like that. When someone says they will take Murray over kyrie or Mitchell Robinson in the 2nd or shai in the 5th, all I can think of is that this person may have some sleeper knowledge, but is completely unreliable in where they will likely end up. You, based on your posts, seem to be light years ahead of Gallagher or any of the podcasts I've heard (only heard 2 podcasts both were shock value trash). Lloyd doesn't seem to be even close from what I've read as well. I just don't get it. I tripled up last year in 40ish leagues with about $2000 in buy ins. I would have obliterated if AD didn't go down as I had at least 10 other teams that I lost due to AD. I was speaking about the people who use BBM and speak on behalf of it like lloyd and Gallagher. There's too many factors to let a computer do that much analysis. Even if every single one of these guys predictions are right on the money they're paying full price lol. Best they can do is get a player at their value, worst is a complete bust. They need to call adebayo a 6th round guy because that's where smart players will take him while theres going to a plethora of fools using ghallagers advice and losing $1000s not thinking that he wouldn't "purposely lie" to help managers and that these guys are really worth what they say. 

Anyone who rates dejounte Murray over kyrie even if he never got injured should honestly be exhiled from the planet. 

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50 minutes ago, Slickthenick said:

 

I mean Josh Lloyd has helped me win my dynasty league 4/7 years but you’re probably right. I can’t wait for your podcast to come out! 

Dynasty is different. Those shock predictions are what players will be further seasons down the road and make sense. I always assume default rules unless specified, which is H2H 13 man 2 IL redraft snake. Everything I've heard him say for default settings is near idiotic. 

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1 hour ago, taenggg said:

^^ its become more clear after every post I've read of his this guy is clueless😂

Lol I think the same about most other people here and in fantasy basketball. Only difference is I obliterate everyone every single year and am almost always right. Keep believing what the fantasy media yells ya though! Even though they're horribly wrong I guess it is a good source if you knock all their shock predictions up a few rounds. They may not be stupid but they are giving out incorrect information and if you do exactly what they say and take those players when they take them you wont do very well... think what ya want buddy I place in almost every league I join. I'd start my own podcast but id make more money not giving away my secrets. 

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13 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Dynasty is different. Those shock predictions are what players will be further seasons down the road and make sense. I always assume default rules unless specified, which is H2H 13 man 2 IL redraft snake. Everything I've heard him say for default settings is near idiotic. 

Well he’s not going to get it right %100 of the time but I happen to find him more knowledgeable then most, and I for one find the BBM analytics to be the best. It’s not fool proof but it helps to pull off trades in your favour and especially does a good job at analyzing your team to predict how you stack up against your competition. Nothing is fool proof but it’s a close as it gets to accurate. I don’t really listen to Gallagher so no opinion on him.

 

As for Lloyd we can just agree to disagree.

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2 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Lol I think the same about most other people here and in fantasy basketball. Only difference is I obliterate everyone every single year and am almost always right. Keep believing what the fantasy media yells ya though! Even though they're horribly wrong I guess it is a good source if you knock all their shock predictions up a few rounds. They may not be stupid but they are giving out incorrect information and if you do exactly what they say and take those players when they take them you wont do very well... think what ya want buddy I place in almost every league I join. I'd start my own podcast but id make more money not giving away my secrets. 

See here’s the tough thing, there’s no real “secrets” to fantasy. So you come out with this tough talk by saying you’re almost always right. I agree with the idea of not doing exactly what these guys suggest but now I’m genuinely curious as to some of your hot takes. Don’t give away all your “secrets” by any means but if you’re as good as you say you are post on the bold predictions or something to that effect. What’s the point in making the big claims and saying the experts are trash if you’re not going to give YOUR takes on guys 

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8 minutes ago, Slickthenick said:

See here’s the tough thing, there’s no real “secrets” to fantasy. So you come out with this tough talk by saying you’re almost always right. I agree with the idea of not doing exactly what these guys suggest but now I’m genuinely curious as to some of your hot takes. Don’t give away all your “secrets” by any means but if you’re as good as you say you are post on the bold predictions or something to that effect. What’s the point in making the big claims and saying the experts are trash if you’re not going to give YOUR takes on guys 

Ergmh... I guess that's fair. I'll give you a couple. Draymond green will be a top 15, maybe top 10 player this year. He was already top 25 when Durant was gone and now klay durant and Harrison barnes are gone. They have steph and D lo and now dray will go back to where he was in the warriors 70+ win season and then some. His usage will rise and his motivation and he will lose weight just from the usage alone. Hes on a contract year and you will see a different year from him this year. He will be maybe be a top 10 player and it hurts me to even throw such golden knowledge out there for you all but I guess it is fair. 

I'll give one more sleeper then I'm done... you all wont like these either but they're going to win me leagues. Will Barton and Gary Harris can be found extremely late in the draft. They are the usual starters and the big pieces of the nuggets after jokic and Murray. They were both top 30 players 2 years ago but had an agonizing year of injury and inability to recuperate and stay on the floor for meaningful stats. After a full summer of health and rest both of those guys are going to put up top 70 numbers and you can get them for probably $7 a pop or in double digit rounds. 

I'll do 1 more... Ben Simmons. Ben is improving his shot and this is likely the year he starts shooting mid range shots catapulting him to top 20 stats. I see his ft% increasing with his shooting. 

I have others but I want to get paid this year. These are all players that will realistically be able to be drafted as a steal when no one is stealing Robinson siakam adebayo except maybe some early leagues or cheap ones. I'll have a trippe double stock machine with a scoring increase in Draymond for $25 this year. Cannot wait.

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33 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Draymond green will be a top 15, maybe top 10 player this year.

 

Interesting secrets. Let me take a stab at them:

So even as a huge Dray fan (fantasy and real life), I don’t think Dray is going back to peak levels let alone better.

Yes he got in better shape, but he is still older - stocks decrease for many as they get older and we have seen that small decline for him already. Not getting back to peak stock levels. Not a contract year anymore either. He re-upped.

Rebounds have went down from peak. Their death lineup is dead and I think where his boards are now is where they will stay.

During his peak he shot 48%. I don’t think he will shoot that well ever again. Assists have been consistently high 6 to 7 range and will stay that way and scoring will go up yes, but that is not getting him to top 10-15. Too many good players now.

As for Harris and Barton, injuries were not the only reason they declined. Depth was. Particularly Monte Morris and Malik Beasley being a big difference. Add now Porter and Grant, and Harris/Barton are as stay away guys as they come. No upside. Denver is too deep. They will definitely not reach two years ago levels or even be top 70.

And Simmons, even if he starts to shoot mid range jumpers, I don’t think that will equate to him also upping his FT% to a major degree. That will still be below 70%.

I got one secret - Goran Dragic bounce back!

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Barton is trash and he's never had a top 30 finish so stop peddling lies. 

He's had one "good" fantasy season, largely in part because he's been so a** the other years so it was a pleasant surprise to see him return top 50 a few years back. What value do you think he's going to return this year that he's going to be a sleeper? 

So we're suppose to believe Simmons taking mid range shots is going to catapult him to a top 20 season? You do realize shooting more mid range shots will likely drop his FG where a large portion of his value comes from right? Unless you think he's going to average something ridiculous like 12+ assists 2+ stls 1+ block with 20+ points there really is no chance he hits top 20 unless you're punting cats. His shot is broken and he doesn't have the in game reps to just magically start hitting jump shots. You also failed to mention threes which he will probably won't even shoot so yeah no impact there to help buoy his top 20 value. 

We appreciate you're effort but let's be real, youre the same person that thought the Wizards were in the west and even after being corrected, you have them pegged as a 7 seed in the East🤔. The same dude that thought Whiteside was still on the Heat. The same dude that thought BBM was a person which Stifle had to literally point out for you. 

Worse of all you s--- on Josh Lloyd who runs Basketball Monster, a site you didn't even know existed until  Stifle again had to point it out for you. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, taenggg said:

Barton is trash and he's never had a top 30 finish so stop peddling lies. 

He's had one "good" fantasy season, largely in part because he's been so a** the other years so it was a pleasant surprise to see him return top 50 a few years back. What value do you think he's going to return this year that he's going to be a sleeper? 

So we're suppose to believe Simmons taking mid range shots is going to catapult him to a top 20 season? You do realize shooting more mid range shots will likely drop his FG where a large portion of his value comes from right? Unless you think he's going to average something ridiculous like 12+ assists 2+ stls 1+ block with 20+ points there really is no chance he hits top 20 unless you're punting cats. His shot is broken and he doesn't have the in game reps to just magically start hitting jump shots. You also failed to mention threes which he will probably won't even shoot so yeah no impact there to help buoy his top 20 value. 

We appreciate you're effort but let's be real, youre the same person that thought the Wizards were in the west and even after being corrected, you have them pegged as a 7 seed in the East🤔. The same dude that thought Whiteside was still on the Heat. The same dude that thought BBM was a person which Stifle had to literally point out for you. 

Worse of all you s--- on Josh Lloyd who runs Basketball Monster, a site you didn't even know existed until  Stifle again had to point it out for you. 

Lol I never said basketball monster was a person one known what it is for years. I'm saying the people using it referring to a past unrelated post. 

Barton's never had a top 30 finish but when healthy hes had top 30 runs and last year when he started getting healthy he was getting plenty of minutes as well as Gary Harris. Their depth isn't going to prevent Harris and Barton from playing tons of minutes IF healthy. Go back and check their mins from last quarter last year and see how the other players mins all dropped when they started consistently playing. Plus the point is the deal you get them for. Harris could put top 30 stats for $5. Barton could put up top 70 stats for $3. 

While you're at it, go check Draymonds stats with Durant off the floor and realizehow stupid you are. He also turned 29 a few months ago hes still in his prime. He just played lazy for a couple years because he didn't have to do much to win his team. Draymond will get 17 9 and 10 with 1.3 steal 1.4 blocks. He never sustained a bad injury and players don't forget how to play. His main increase is going to be his points. Theres 30 Durant points left to go around and 23 klay points a game. What you think D Lo is gonna get 53 a game? Who the hell else is gonna score? 

Simmons value will increase from more scoring and his fg% will still be great. Will have a slight increase in ft% which will improve. And hes not just going to magically learn how to shoot he practices and players on the team think he needs to shoot and is ready but he practices on the side so he doesnt hurt his team learning on the go. Hes smart like that and with the spacing he will create by being zbl to shoot he will get more assists and more pts off drives too because its easier to beat your man when he doesnt sag 5 feet off you focusing more on the drive and passing lanes and easier help defense.

Me not playing attention to off season trades like whiteside or Washington being in the east has nothing to do with fantasy skill as its august and I will update my info all at once when the season comes along. But yeah I'm wrong! Please just skip right passed those guys I'll gladly take them for the prices they will go for. I don't think you're realizing ben simmons goes in the 4th same with dray. They're guaranteed to make value at what they're going for unless injured and can only get close to upside. I'm less sold on simmons but I'll likely have the other 3 in all my lineups for under $35. 

But you go listen to dumbass ghlagger and go grab Mitchell Robinson in the 2nd and adebayo in the 3rd. Oubre jr just a round after Ben simmons to that dumb twat! Good luck with that. 

Edited by johnval1362

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Over the last two months:

Barton: 28 minutes 11pts/4.7rbs/2.5ast/1.6treys/0.5stls/0.5blks on 38% FG and 75% FT. Ranked in the 220s

Garris: 27 mins

10.6pts/2.5rbs/1.6ast/1stls on 42% FG and 77% FT. Ranked in the 220s

Over the last month its largely the same, so where are these ton of minutes you speak of? 

Anyways, I only bring up your Wizards and Whiteside debacle to highlight the fact that you criticized "fantasy experts" for providing incorrect information, but here you are doing the same thing. No one is telling people to take their words as gospel. I am of the believer that in order to maximize your ROI/success in fantasy its always a good idea to take in as much knowledge and information as possible and filter out any ridiculous hot takes (I see you Bruski). 

I mean for someone that supposely places in all their leagues and is so successful to the point they don't want to start a podcast to give up their trade secrets, id expect you to at least understand this.

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5 hours ago, taenggg said:

Over the last two months:

Barton: 28 minutes 11pts/4.7rbs/2.5ast/1.6treys/0.5stls/0.5blks on 38% FG and 75% FT. Ranked in the 220s

Garris: 27 mins

10.6pts/2.5rbs/1.6ast/1stls on 42% FG and 77% FT. Ranked in the 220s

Over the last month its largely the same, so where are these ton of minutes you speak of? 

Anyways, I only bring up your Wizards and Whiteside debacle to highlight the fact that you criticized "fantasy experts" for providing incorrect information, but here you are doing the same thing. No one is telling people to take their words as gospel. I am of the believer that in order to maximize your ROI/success in fantasy its always a good idea to take in as much knowledge and information as possible and filter out any ridiculous hot takes (I see you Bruski). 

I mean for someone that supposely places in all their leagues and is so successful to the point they don't want to start a podcast to give up their trade secrets, id expect you to at least understand this.

Those are more than enough minutes. They were coming off injuries so I would assume they're much healthier after a full nba seasons training 

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On 8/5/2019 at 8:00 PM, johnval1362 said:

Ergmh... I guess that's fair. I'll give you a couple. Draymond green will be a top 15, maybe top 10 player this year. He was already top 25 when Durant was gone and now klay durant and Harrison barnes are gone. They have steph and D lo and now dray will go back to where he was in the warriors 70+ win season and then some. His usage will rise and his motivation and he will lose weight just from the usage alone. Hes on a contract year and you will see a different year from him this year. He will be maybe be a top 10 player and it hurts me to even throw such golden knowledge out there for you all but I guess it is fair. 

I'll give one more sleeper then I'm done... you all wont like these either but they're going to win me leagues. Will Barton and Gary Harris can be found extremely late in the draft. They are the usual starters and the big pieces of the nuggets after jokic and Murray. They were both top 30 players 2 years ago but had an agonizing year of injury and inability to recuperate and stay on the floor for meaningful stats. After a full summer of health and rest both of those guys are going to put up top 70 numbers and you can get them for probably $7 a pop or in double digit rounds. 

I'll do 1 more... Ben Simmons. Ben is improving his shot and this is likely the year he starts shooting mid range shots catapulting him to top 20 stats. I see his ft% increasing with his shooting. 

I have others but I want to get paid this year. These are all players that will realistically be able to be drafted as a steal when no one is stealing Robinson siakam adebayo except maybe some early leagues or cheap ones. I'll have a trippe double stock machine with a scoring increase in Draymond for $25 this year. Cannot wait.

Lol Ben Simmons top 20, Barton and gharris will bounce back. Gharris should have an amazing year but ur definitely stretching on Barton.

overall those are not bold picks, that Ben Simmons pick is terrible though, even if he fixed his FT % the lack of 3s and turnovers will still keep him around 4rd round value 

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29 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Lol Ben Simmons top 20, Barton and gharris will bounce back. Gharris should have an amazing year but ur definitely stretching on Barton.

overall those are not bold picks, that Ben Simmons pick is terrible though, even if he fixed his FT % the lack of 3s and turnovers will still keep him around 4rd round value 

 

Agreed, anyone who takes Simmons is bound to never win in their league.  One of my friends spent 25% of his auction dollars on Simmons last year and struggled the rest of the way

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19 minutes ago, Auction>Snake said:

So... Hayward.

Just watch his vertical pre season. If he got it back he will do well and may end up top 60. If his vert is not back, he will be a bust top 150 player. Hes going to be a bust, throw $3 down or take him in the 11th unless he seems to have a huge increase to the bounce in his step. No stats or info will change that, just watch to see if his vert is back and you will have your answer. 

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1 minute ago, johnval1362 said:

Just watch his vertical pre season. If he got it back he will do well and may end up top 60. If his vert is not back, he will be a bust top 150 player. Hes going to be a bust, throw $3 down or take him in the 11th unless he seems to have a huge increase to the bounce in his step. No stats or info will change that, just watch to see if his vert is back and you will have your answer. 

It was a clean break in his twenties, it's a given that it's back surely with 2020 sports science being at a ridiculous level & a bottomless pit of money to invest in these guys health/recovery. It'd be strange, a rare anomaly if he doesn't regain his vertical. 

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2 minutes ago, Auction>Snake said:

It was a clean break in his twenties, it's a given that it's back surely with 2020 sports science being at a ridiculous level & a bottomless pit of money to invest in these guys health/recovery. It'd be strange, a rare anomaly if he doesn't regain his vertical. 

Verts harder to regain than horizontal movements. During last season Hayward was specifically saying he regained his horizontal footwork but he is not confident driving to the rack with his vert lacking. It did not improve much after an entire season, so it's definitely possible he gets it back after an nba off season. That injury was very gruesome, so I'm not sold. He really needs full or 90% recovery to be very effective. He looked to be around 60% to 70% of his Utah days. Hes another low risk high reward guy though and if he got his game back he would be on a lot of championship teams. 

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2 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Verts harder to regain than horizontal movements. During last season Hayward was specifically saying he regained his horizontal footwork but he is not confident driving to the rack with his vert lacking. It did not improve much after an entire season, so it's definitely possible he gets it back after an nba off season. That injury was very gruesome, so I'm not sold. He really needs full or 90% recovery to be very effective. He looked to be around 60% to 70% of his Utah days. Hes another low risk high reward guy though and if he got his game back he would be on a lot of championship teams. 

Seriously think those mental jitters ran deep, justifiably so it was horrible. Whole season to shake them plus training camp coming up, i'm betting he's absolutely regained full confidence. 29 years old is prime nothing apart from knees/achilles type stuff can leave him stuck at 60%/70%, if he was 31 perhaps i'd avoid but im all in, and I think the Celtics/Brad Stevens are too.

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Gordon is a tough guy to project for the upcoming season.  He was a solid player prior to his injury and offered a lot of fantasy value.  However, his injury was horrific both in severity and mentally.  I am not sure he will return to the fantasy value he had in Utah but I can see him putting up efficient numbers ala Doug Christie, with slightly lower defensive stats.  He will have a role on fantasy teams but it won't be the role he had in the past.  I am on the side of those saying he is worth a late round pick or flyer depending on league format and size.

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I have hayward as sleeper for Celtics this year. I watched a lot of Celtics games last year, and the Hayward in Feb-April compared to haywar OCt-Nov was different. The numbers might not show it, you have to watch the game to realize it. His explosiveness was back. But the Celtics as a team was bad because Kyrie sucked all of their positive energy away, and everyone had a bad fantasy year including Tatum.

This year Celtics are entering the year with each player having a defined role. Kemba, Brown / Smart, Hayward, Tatum, Kanter. Making players understand their roles was what made Stevens a special coach. That's why he was able to lead a Celtics team led by IT2 to prominence because guys like Jae Crowder Avery Bradley knew what they were supposed to do. Last year, players all had different agenda. I don't expect Hayward to average 20ppg again because Kemba and Tatum will probably lead the team in scoring, but I think he will be consistent and average 16 points 5 rebounds 4 assists with good percentages and 1+ 3s and steals with few turnovers. Solid numbers. I am targeting him in round 8 of draft hoping for a top 50 year. But in 2 redrafts I have been in so far, he didn't fall that far, he was picked in mid round 6 and early round 7

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3 hours ago, a-rob said:

I am targeting him in round 8 of draft hoping for a top 50 year. But in 2 redrafts I have been in so far, he didn't fall that far, he was picked in mid round 6 and early round 7

It is surprise because I have heard here in forums that many potentially better player (like TJ Warren) has been available at 8th round. Because I did a mistake last season by drafting Hayward as a 61st pick then I am sure I don't pick him before 8th round as you said.

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So sore elbow huh. Not a good start but please do not make this a recurring thing. 

 

I still have high hope on him having a bounce-back this year. 

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Don't trust this guy very much at all. Wouldn't touch him unless he fell to the bottom 3 rounds or so. Kemba and Tatum are gonna run the show in Boston, and Jaylen is going to be third banana. This pushes Hayward to the #4 option. I can see something like 12p, 3a, 4p on decent %s with a steal/three and a half and that's about it.

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