Trench Mob

Bam Adebayo 2019-2020 Outlook

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No more Whiteside bum blocking his path of minutes. BAM BAM about to put in work. Time to eat! Going right with his own predictions for this upcoming breakout season.

 

16 ppg / 10 rebs / 5 ast / 1.5 blks / 1.2 stls. 55% FG percentage, 76% FT percentage 💪

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

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No more Whiteside bum blocking his path of minutes. BAM BAM about to put in work. Time to eat! Going right with his own predictions for this upcoming breakout season.

 

16 ppg / 10 rebs / 5 ast / 1.5 blks / 1.2 stls. 55% FG percentage, 76% FT percentage 💪

 

 

5 assists? Thats more than Marc Gasol's best assist year. I expect 1-2 assists per game...

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Something tells me Spoelstra will limit Bam Bams minutes this season. Heat have Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk on their roster. Spoelstra likes to have a stretch 5 and also likes to switch up the lineups due to matchups, I don’t think bam bam will exceed 27mpg.

 

Love the kid , but he’s on my don’t draft list due to Spo

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3 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Something tells me Spoelstra will limit Bam Bams minutes this season. Heat have Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk on their roster. Spoelstra likes to have a stretch 5 and also likes to switch up the lineups due to matchups, I don’t think bam bam will exceed 27mpg.

 

Love the kid , but he’s on my don’t draft list due to Spo

Yeah I'm thinking a near equal time share with him and olynyk with Meyers getting some garbage time and mins here and there. Olynyk isn't great fantasy wise but hes useful in the modern NBA and spoelestra doesnt give a crap about player development. Bam will do the same thing he did last year plus a little more, but people reaching before the 9th or 10th seems like a gamble. 

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1 hour ago, johnval1362 said:

Yeah I'm thinking a near equal time share with him and olynyk with Meyers getting some garbage time and mins here and there. Olynyk isn't great fantasy wise but hes useful in the modern NBA and spoelestra doesnt give a crap about player development. Bam will do the same thing he did last year plus a little more, but people reaching before the 9th or 10th seems like a gamble. 

Don't tell Michael Gallagher that.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, AndreSplash said:

Don't tell Michael Gallagher that.

Yes, there is big controversy if we here recommend to draft him at 9th-10th round, but at RW experts mock he was picked at 3rd.

Edited by apatas
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Posted (edited)

13/9/3/1/1 on 59% FG and 78% FT 1.8 TO.  Top 60. 

 

 

Edited by StifleTower2
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15 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

13/9/3/1/1 on 59% FG and 78% FT 1.8 TO.  Top 60. 

 

 

You think he gets the minutes do to so? No doubt he can hit them but I just don't think he gets the mins. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

You think he gets the minutes do to so? No doubt he can hit them but I just don't think he gets the mins. 

Idk.  Personally, I don’t understand what recommends him over Allen, Bryant, Nance, Zeller (well injury concern there), etc. There are at least half a dozen cheaper players that are in this ballpark. 

 

Everyone has their homer picks and I’m just trying to combat the homerism. I derived the numbers simply by looking at his production the final two months of the season, looking at his minutes, and extrapolating to 30 mpg.  Still better than what many people do which is just pull it out of their a**.  

 

I think he can hit those numbers, and is probably over 50/50 to do so, but I don’t really know, and no one else does either .

Edited by StifleTower2
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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Idk.  Personally, I don’t understand what recommends him over Allen, Bryant, Nance, Zeller (well injury concern there), etc. There are at least half a dozen cheaper players that are in this ballpark. 

 

Everyone has their homer picks and I’m just trying to combat the homerism. I derived the numbers simply by looking at his production the final two months of the season, looking at his minutes, and extrapolating to 30 mpg.  Still better than what many people do which is just pull it out of their a**.  

 

I think he can hit those numbers, and is probably over 50/50 to do so, but I don’t really know, and no one else does either .

 

Because he offers production across the board and has the legit basketball skills and untapped upside that Allen, Bryant, Nance, and Zeller do not necessarily offer.  I would personally compare him more to Horford or Gasol because of the assists potential...if he could add the 3 ball.  Nance still has the logjam in front of him but who knows how new coach will play him.  Zeller can't stay healthy and will be added and dropped 10 times throughout the year in leagues less than 14 teams.  Allen is timeshare with DJ and doesnt get assists or steals, and very likely less points than Bam.  Bryant I agree is similar and is the 1 player from the list that can and I think probably will outproduce Bam.  I'd say overall it's more the preseason hype train in full effect, but not without reason.          

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15 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Because he offers production across the board and has the legit basketball skills and untapped upside that Allen, Bryant, Nance, and Zeller do not necessarily offer.  I would personally compare him more to Horford or Gasol because of the assists potential...if he could add the 3 ball.  Nance still has the logjam in front of him but who knows how new coach will play him.  Zeller can't stay healthy and will be added and dropped 10 times throughout the year in leagues less than 14 teams.  Allen is timeshare with DJ and doesnt get assists or steals, and very likely less points than Bam.  Bryant I agree is similar and is the 1 player from the list that can and I think probably will outproduce Bam.  I'd say overall it's more the preseason hype train in full effect, but not without reason.          

I’m looking at their statistical profile, not narratives, stories, or hype. 

 

Of the players I mentioned (who were simply off the top of my head) the two with the clearest path to minutes are Zeller and Bryant.  Zeller has the closest profile to Bam and has higher FT%.  Finished higher last year in per game and is on a worse team.  There’s no competition whatsoever.  If he could stay healthy he would be the best of the bunch imo despite being the least expensive by far. 

 

I’m looking at your posts from last year and you seemed pretty excited that Allen would average 3 blocks per game.  The reality is that (like I said) Allen was too hyped from last year.  I said he’d be around top 75 which is close.  I’m just  wondering why there’s a knee jerk reaction.  I think he maintain value  or improve. Jordan isn’t a significant obstacle because he’s already stated he would be willing to come off the bench.  Even if Jordan is an obstacle then he’s not much more so than Olynyk.  Allen is a better shot blocker than Bam.  Nothing significant has changed about his situation, the biggest change is he’s not the sexy pick be was from last year. You already had him, but you haven’t had Bam.  That’s the difference. 

 

Nance is boring but he was top 60 year.  Love will likely get traded for spare parts or be rested.  Thompson isn’t a huge obstacle.  He’ll likely repeat top 60 on an efficient 10/10 with 1.5 steals. 

 

The real difference between those guys and Bam is that the three names I listed will cost next to nothing in auction.  I could fill three Util slots with those guys for like a combined $20.  If zeller gets injured, it’s an easy drop bc he’ll cost $1-3.  

 

Whereas if you’re picking bam as aggressively as it seems then he’s a 3/4 round pick to you or $25-30 in auction.  When he hits top 60 you’ll be disappointed bc the hype machine pushed him a little too hard.

 

It’s going to be another year where the Gallagher types correctly identify breakout candidates but make the mistake of hyping them so hard that they can’t possibly achieve their ADP.  The best strategy imo is to find the guys the writers aren’t talking about as much.  Or what I’ve found to be very effective is  draft guys Gallagher hyped last year or two years ago.  Often he’s correct about them breaking out but he’s a year or two late.  The next year he chooses another crop of guys he’s going to overhype so that the people reading his articles overpay.  

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11 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I’m looking at their statistical profile, not narratives, stories, or hype. 

 

Of the players I mentioned (who were simply off the top of my head) the two with the clearest path to minutes are Zeller and Bryant.  Zeller has the closest profile to Bam and has higher FT%.  Finished higher last year in per game and is on a worse team.  There’s no competition whatsoever.  If he could stay healthy he would be the best of the bunch imo despite being the least expensive by far. 

 

I’m looking at your posts from last year and you seemed pretty excited that Allen would average 3 blocks per game.  The reality is that (like I said) Allen was too hyped from last year.  I said he’d be around top 75 which is close.  I’m just  wondering why there’s a knee jerk reaction.  I think he maintain value  or improve. Jordan isn’t a significant obstacle because he’s already stated he would be willing to come off the bench.  Even if Jordan is an obstacle then he’s not much more so than Olynyk.  Allen is a better shot blocker than Bam.  Nothing significant has changed about his situation, the biggest change is he’s not the sexy pick be was from last year. You already had him, but you haven’t had Bam.  That’s the difference. 

 

Nance is boring but he was top 60 year.  Love will likely get traded for spare parts or be rested.  Thompson isn’t a huge obstacle.  He’ll likely repeat top 60 on an efficient 10/10 with 1.5 steals. 

 

The real difference between those guys and Bam is that the three names I listed will cost next to nothing in auction.  I could fill three Util slots with those guys for like a combined $20.  If zeller gets injured, it’s an easy drop bc he’ll cost $1-3.  

 

Whereas if you’re picking bam as aggressively as it seems then he’s a 3/4 round pick to you or $25-30 in auction.  When he hits top 60 you’ll be disappointed bc the hype machine pushed him a little too hard.

 

It’s going to be another year where the Gallagher types correctly identify breakout candidates but make the mistake of hyping them so hard that they can’t possibly achieve their ADP.  The best strategy imo is to find the guys the writers aren’t talking about as much.  Or what I’ve found to be very effective is  draft guys Gallagher hyped last year or two years ago.  Often he’s correct about them breaking out but he’s a year or two late.  The next year he chooses another crop of guys he’s going to overhype so that the people reading his articles overpay.  

 

I would say depends what you want with Allen and Bam.  Allen you're going for blocks, Bam has the potential to get you more assists and steals.  I've seen projections with Olynyk more at PF, and of course small ball 5, but I don't think he eats into Bam's playing time too much.  I suppose you could say the same about DJ, but simply put the Nets added another body and the Heat lost another body.  I was hyped on Allen last year sure, I'm hyped on players who show extremely high block rates, like Mitch this year.  I was only able to draft Allen last year on 1 team tho, in the 8th round, so its not like I targeted him over-aggesively.  Turns out that sometimes not getting the players you like is a blessing.

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2 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I would say depends what you want with Allen and Bam.  Allen you're going for blocks, Bam has the potential to get you more assists and steals.  I've seen projections with Olynyk more at PF, and of course small ball 5, but I don't think he eats into Bam's playing time too much.  I suppose you could say the same about DJ, but simply put the Nets added another body and the Heat lost another body.  I was hyped on Allen last year sure, I'm hyped on players who show extremely high block rates, like Mitch this year.  I was only able to draft Allen last year on 1 team tho, in the 8th round, so its not like I targeted him over-aggesively.  Turns out that sometimes not getting the players you like is a blessing.

I’d prefer Bam over all of them....if they cost similar amounts.  But their cost isn’t going to be remotely similar due to Bam’s hype.  If Bam costs $25+ or a 4th round pick in REDRAFT...I’m just not feeling it.  13/9/3/1/1 is a very solid line and he can hit that. However, my point is that you can get bigs of similar value much more affordably elsewhere.  

 

I’m not exaggerating when I say it’s a hype train.  There could a crop of half a dozen young bigs with similar profile but writers only have so much time so they have to choose one.  Bam is this year’s Allen.  Shai and Jrue the littles Gallagher is hyping.  He even admitted in one of his podcasts that he deliberately hypes guys above his actual projections to convince his audience to pay attention. 

 

Now you might be into Bam independent of Gallagher and Gallagher may not be the reason you like him. Problem is there are people who listen to him and it’s going to ruin it for you. 

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Yes absolutely.  That's very good thinking...the "poor man's" play and similarly the under hyped play is one of the best.   You're not over exaggerating at all with the hype train stuff.  Shai will be going top 50 in most drafts I think.  Jrue is sneaking into 1st round, but like we discussed its a sht show there so anything could happen.  It's like this every year, there's legit sleeper / breakout candidates that you can never actually get at a reasonable value because they're on everyone's list and hype train etc so you have to reach on them and that's not as much fun as stealing them later.  

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

 

Of the players I mentioned (who were simply off the top of my head) the two with the clearest path to minutes are Zeller and Bryant.  Zeller has the closest profile to Bam and has higher FT%.  Finished higher last year in per game and is on a worse team.  There’s no competition whatsoever.  If he could stay healthy he would be the best of the bunch imo despite being the least expensive by far. 

 

 

I thought they would take Goga for sure but i PJ could be pretty good too

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On 8/2/2019 at 8:20 PM, hipriest69 said:

Because he offers production across the board and has the legit basketball skills and untapped upside that Allen, Bryant, Nance, and Zeller do not necessarily offer.  I would personally compare him more to Horford or Gasol because of the assists potential...      

 

Agree that assist cat is something that can catch one's eye when comparing centers but when we take into consideration all 9 standard cats with last season data - Horford and Gasol seem not to be in top 5 when comparing to Bam's profile.

Interesting however is the name number 4 which clearly shows that Bam is more versatile than an average big 🙂

Untitled.gif

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17 hours ago, slmroz said:

 

Agree that assist cat is something that can catch one's eye when comparing centers but when we take into consideration all 9 standard cats with last season data - Horford and Gasol seem not to be in top 5 when comparing to Bam's profile.

Interesting however is the name number 4 which clearly shows that Bam is more versatile than an average big 🙂

Untitled.gif

Where is this tool from?

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47 minutes ago, tongs said:

Where is this tool from?


I don't want to advertise anything directly, but you'll google it with the "fantasy basketball similar players" phrase :-)

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Whiteside being gone is abviously great, but how will he handle being double-teamed, heavily scouted by the opposition, they'll be well prepared - he's got a massive target on his back now. Not to mention he has to play full minutes against guys like Embiid who will likely eat him alive. 

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10 minutes ago, Auction>Snake said:

Whiteside being gone is abviously great, but how will he handle being double-teamed, heavily scouted by the opposition, they'll be well prepared - he's got a massive target on his back now. Not to mention he has to play full minutes against guys like Embiid who will likely eat him alive. 


I wouldn't also underestimate Olynyk and his ability to space the floor from the C position. IMO something around minute split is not out of question here...

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does him being dropped by team america mean anything? on the surface it doesn't look good. what am i missing?

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1 hour ago, morphiend said:

does him being dropped by team america mean anything? on the surface it doesn't look good. what am i missing?

It means he wasn't good enough to make the Team USA roster. Doesn't mean anything outside of that. No one expected him to make the team anyways. His fantasy outlook does not change. 

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4 hours ago, RedRaider27 said:

It means he wasn't good enough to make the Team USA roster. Doesn't mean anything outside of that. No one expected him to make the team anyways. His fantasy outlook does not change. 

Idk if it even means that much.  Some of the best players in the world don’t want to play for that team.  It really just means the coaching staff didn’t think he was a good fit, or maybe even he was a good fit but someone else was better.  

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On 8/8/2019 at 2:58 PM, Auction>Snake said:

Whiteside being gone is abviously great, but how will he handle being double-teamed, heavily scouted by the opposition, they'll be well prepared - he's got a massive target on his back now. Not to mention he has to play full minutes against guys like Embiid who will likely eat him alive. 

 

Doubt Bam gets double teamed over Jimmy / Dragic (if he puts in a good season) - also the reason I doubt he gets more than 3 assists, those two aren’t off the ball players

As for the competition that he’ll have to vs, I think he’ll be fine eventually - Embiid makes a lot of defenders look silly - him getting reps just part of the process ;) 

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