Trench Mob

Bam Adebayo 2019-2020 Outlook

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Don't care about Jimmy cause it's gonna be Bam all the way! No more Whiteside bumming!

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Posted (edited)

Olynyk is going to ruin bams over hyped potential unless bam can knock down 3s at a good rate from the very start. I do not believe he can. With butler already not being a good 3 pt shooter they will need the floor spacing. Its 2019 people still don't understand this after like 3+ years of spacing being extremely relevant. It's hilarious. Boogie going down is going to several hurt lebrons value now too. McGee same story hes great but the spacing will disrupt the flow. 

Olynyk is underrated in real life. Bam might get some late season early round value when the heat are out of playoff potential but I highly doubt they're a better team as a whole with a semi newbie Bam starting at C vs a seasoned 3 pt shooting floor spacing experienced player. In the future, yes, but if they are fighting for a playoff spot they aren't going to unleash him unless he is more productive than olynyk for the heat as a whole, period. And he will almost definitely not be unless he can knock down 3s. Don't pick Bam unless he drops to the 7th or so, even then I wouldn't. People think Whiteside was ruining bams value... well remember who ruined whitesides value??? Olynyk. Kelly's going to be the more compatible player for the heat as a team, and until they are not playoff contenders BAM will probably never see 28+ minutes and less minutes means irradic unpredictable stats which will hurt h2h. Stay away from Bam, Gallagher doesn't know squat. Player talent does NOT equal minutes although Bams per minute hype is totally real. 

Edited by johnval1362
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2 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

Olynyk is going to ruin bams over hyped potential unless bam can knock down 3s at a good rate from the very start. I do not believe he can. With butler already not being a good 3 pt shooter they will need the floor spacing. Its 2019 people still don't understand this after like 3+ years of spacing being extremely relevant. It's hilarious. Boogie going down is going to several hurt lebrons value now too. McGee same story hes great but the spacing will disrupt the flow. 

Olynyk is underrated in real life. Bam might get some late season early round value when the heat are out of playoff potential but I highly doubt they're a better team as a whole with a semi newbie Bam starting at C vs a seasoned 3 pt shooting floor spacing experienced player. In the future, yes, but if they are fighting for a playoff spot they aren't going to unleash him unless he is more productive than olynyk for the heat as a whole, period. And he will almost definitely not be unless he can knock down 3s. Don't pick Bam unless he drops to the 7th or so, even then I wouldn't. People think Whiteside was ruining bams value... well remember who ruined whitesides value??? Olynyk. Kelly's going to be the more compatible player for the heat as a team, and until they are not playoff contenders BAM will probably never see 28+ minutes and less minutes means irradic unpredictable stats which will hurt h2h. Stay away from Bam, Gallagher doesn't know squat. Player talent does NOT equal minutes although Bams per minute hype is totally real. 

 

Last season Bam and Whiteside averaged 23.3 minutes per game. I didnt watch many Heat games but I dont think they shared the floor together.

So that makes 46.6 minutes if you add up their playing time. Almost a full game with a guy at the 5 who cant space the floor/shoot 3s. Sure Olynyk gonna get some run at C but I doubt it will be a 50/50 split. Bam should avg 30 minutes and if you get him in the 7th round thats a steal.

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9 hours ago, Chrizz said:

 

Last season Bam and Whiteside averaged 23.3 minutes per game. I didnt watch many Heat games but I dont think they shared the floor together.

So that makes 46.6 minutes if you add up their playing time. Almost a full game with a guy at the 5 who cant space the floor/shoot 3s. Sure Olynyk gonna get some run at C but I doubt it will be a 50/50 split. Bam should avg 30 minutes and if you get him in the 7th round thats a steal.

You’re forgetting about Myers Leonard , bam is not getting 28+mins under spo with the current roster , that’s a fact

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Who can play PF and C for Miami this year ? JJ, Kelly, Bam, and Leonard ? That leaves 96min for 4 guys. Leonard is injury prone, and played +20min only one season. I doubt he is a real threat for Bam's Playing time...

 

 

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On 8/17/2019 at 3:40 PM, johnval1362 said:

Olynyk is going to ruin bams over hyped potential unless bam can knock down 3s at a good rate from the very start. I do not believe he can. With butler already not being a good 3 pt shooter they will need the floor spacing. Its 2019 people still don't understand this after like 3+ years of spacing being extremely relevant. It's hilarious. Boogie going down is going to several hurt lebrons value now too. McGee same story hes great but the spacing will disrupt the flow. 

 Olynyk is underrated in real life. Bam might get some late season early round value when the heat are out of playoff potential but I highly doubt they're a better team as a whole with a semi newbie Bam starting at C vs a seasoned 3 pt shooting floor spacing experienced player. In the future, yes, but if they are fighting for a playoff spot they aren't going to unleash him unless he is more productive than olynyk for the heat as a whole, period. And he will almost definitely not be unless he can knock down 3s. Don't pick Bam unless he drops to the 7th or so, even then I wouldn't. People think Whiteside was ruining bams value... well remember who ruined whitesides value??? Olynyk. Kelly's going to be the more compatible player for the heat as a team, and until they are not playoff contenders BAM will probably never see 28+ minutes and less minutes means irradic unpredictable stats which will hurt h2h. Stay away from Bam, Gallagher doesn't know squat. Player talent does NOT equal minutes although Bams per minute hype is totally real. 

Completely agree.

No true Centre on the heat has ever played 30+ minutes for Coach Spo except for Whiteside the year he averaged 17 and 14 but Mike Gallagher won't tell you that. Yes Bam is talented but I heard the same depth chart argument with Allen last year. Everyone argued that there is nobody behind Allen so there will be no reason he doesn't play 28-30 mpg and guess what, he only played 26mpg. Even an expectation of 16 and 10 with 30mpg is fairly unrealistic when you look at the entire NBA landscape. Ayton averaged 16 and 10 in 31mpg and he is no where near Ayton offensively. If you think the Miami heat will be giving Bam serious looks in the post, or he'll get as many touches as Ayton goodluck with that disappoint.

Then everyone will blame the Heat and complain about Spo when in reality it's your fault for over drafting him. It's rinse and repeat every year

 He will not get the minutes.

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22 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Completely agree.

No true Centre on the heat has ever played 30+ minutes for Coach Spo except for Whiteside the year he averaged 17 and 14 but Mike Gallagher won't tell you that. Yes Bam is talented but I heard the same depth chart argument with Allen last year. Everyone argued that there is nobody behind Allen so there will be no reason he doesn't play 28-30 mpg and guess what, he only played 26mpg. Even an expectation of 16 and 10 with 30mpg is fairly unrealistic when you look at the entire NBA landscape. Ayton averaged 16 and 10 in 31mpg and he is no where near Ayton offensively. If you think the Miami heat will be giving Bam serious looks in the post, or he'll get as many touches as Ayton goodluck with that disappoint.

Then everyone will blame the Heat and complain about Spo when in reality it's your fault for over drafting him. It's rinse and repeat every year

 He will not get the minutes.

I agree that Gallagher hypes his guys but 13/9/3/1/1 on good percentages is viable.  That’s good for top 75, ofc you could also say the same about someone like Zeller who has even less competition for minutes 

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I agree that Gallagher hypes his guys but 13/9/3/1/1 on good percentages is viable.  That’s good for top 75, ofc you could also say the same about someone like Zeller who has even less competition for minutes 

Well if he avg those #s with good % that probably around 50? Not totally sure but if so, that would put him at retail price as a 4th or 5th round pick. And if you want a championship team that would mean you want to grab him a round or 2 later as a bargain pick, especially since although hes over hyped that's really only in the forum/ serious player community so it's still likely to get a deal with him if patient. 6th or 7th makes sense to me which is where he has generally been going in my mocks. 

I think if I'm patient enough I'll see him slip to the 8th or 9th in some random leagues. I will probably grab him no earlier than the 7th. 

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26 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Well if he avg those #s with good % that probably around 50? Not totally sure but if so, that would put him at retail price as a 4th or 5th round pick. And if you want a championship team that would mean you want to grab him a round or 2 later as a bargain pick, especially since although hes over hyped that's really only in the forum/ serious player community so it's still likely to get a deal with him if patient. 6th or 7th makes sense to me which is where he has generally been going in my mocks. 

I think if I'm patient enough I'll see him slip to the 8th or 9th in some random leagues. I will probably grab him no earlier than the 7th. 

Could be.  People don't realize how much tiny variations can significantly impact ranking and there is little differentiation between players after ranks 75 or so.

For reference, in the last two months of the season Zeller went 13.2/7.5/1.9/1/1 on 52.5 FG%/76 FT% and was ranked 83rd.  Whereas Bam in the last two months went 10.8/8.4/2.8/1.1/.8 and 59 FG%/78 FT%.   

 

On the naked eye, Bam averaged a couple of points less, half a rebound more, an assist more, and was more efficient.  Yet that accounts for two rounds of value?  This illustrates the flaw in ranking systems because the different between 83rd and 60 sounds like a lot but statistically they're basically the same.  I'd prefer Zeller as a 10th round flyer over Bam as a 4th rounder.  

 

 

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Posted (edited)
On 8/18/2019 at 7:48 PM, StifleTower2 said:

Could be.  People don't realize how much tiny variations can significantly impact ranking and there is little differentiation between players after ranks 75 or so.

For reference, in the last two months of the season Zeller went 13.2/7.5/1.9/1/1 on 52.5 FG%/76 FT% and was ranked 83rd.  Whereas Bam in the last two months went 10.8/8.4/2.8/1.1/.8 and 59 FG%/78 FT%.   

 

On the naked eye, Bam averaged a couple of points less, half a rebound more, an assist more, and was more efficient.  Yet that accounts for two rounds of value?  This illustrates the flaw in ranking systems because the different between 83rd and 60 sounds like a lot but statistically they're basically the same.  I'd prefer Zeller as a 10th round flyer over Bam as a 4th rounder.  

 

Enjoy the 50 games Zeller will play. Adebayo has played more games the last 2 years (151) than Zeller has his last 3 (144). Also Zeller is in his 7th year and we know what he is at this point. His career per 36 averages are 12.9/9.1/2.2/1.1/1.2 and last year that was 14.4/9.6/3.0/1.1/1.2, so we know that he has little room for improvement, and even if he sees an uptick in minutes there's no guarantee he stays healthy. Adebayo showed improvements across the board (Pts/Stls/Blks/Rebs/Ast/FG%/FT%) in his per 36 numbers going into year 2, so we know he still has room for further improvement considering this is the "Breakout 3rd Year".

 

Edited by Brandon27

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4 minutes ago, Brandon27 said:

Enjoy the 50 games Zeller will play. Adebayo has played more games the last 2 years (151) than Zeller has his last 3 (144). Also Zeller is in his 7th year and we know what he is at this point. His career per 36 averages are 12.9/9.1/2.2/1.1/1.2 and last year that was 14.4/9.6/3.0/1.1/1.2, so we know that he has little room for improvement, and even if he sees an uptick in minutes there's no guarantee he stays healthy. Adebayo showed improvements across the board (Pts/Stls/Blks/Rebs/Ast/FG%/FT%) in his per 36 numbers going into year 2, so we know he still has room for further improvement considering this is the "Breakout 3rd Year".

 

Rotoworld never fails to disappoint.  Straw-men and half truths.  I didn’t say I would pick Zeller over Bam or even that I would take Zeller at all.  The point is to come up with a statistical comparison.  Bam’s projected growth was already baked into the comparison.  Actually Bam was well outside the top 100 last year.  My argument is that Zeller finished 83rd per game in the last two months of the season and I posted his numbers.  I then compared Bam’s projected numbers against Zeller’s.  There wasn’t that much difference.  The only point this illustrates is that people will post projected lines and claim that’s top 40 or whatever.  I will actually run it in BBM and it comes out to top 60-70.  Their own numbers do not support their own argument. 

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among the centres that ranked about round 4-5 (Yahoo), how would you guys rank them:

Favours, Bam, JJJ, Capela, Bryant, JV

I am personally interested to see what people think about Bam vs Bryant, who would you own?

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19 minutes ago, t0087669 said:

among the centres that ranked about round 4-5 (Yahoo), how would you guys rank them:

Favours, Bam, JJJ, Capela, Bryant, JV

I am personally interested to see what people think about Bam vs Bryant, who would you own?

 

Most people here dont think Bam will get 30 minutes. So that alone would put Bryant ahead of him. But If both will have the same playing time Bam will give you a lot more steals and a few more assists while Bryant should be ahead in 3s, Blocks and points. I value steals and assists a lot esp from a big. So that would put Bam ahead of Bryant for me. But only If their playing time is the same for both. 

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1 hour ago, t0087669 said:

among the centres that ranked about round 4-5 (Yahoo), how would you guys rank them:

Favours, Bam, JJJ, Capela, Bryant, JV

I am personally interested to see what people think about Bam vs Bryant, who would you own?


 It could be really close in some cases and depend on strategy/league setup but if I really had to sort them ...
Capela, JJJ, Bam, Bryant, JV, Favors

 

Edited by slmroz

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3 hours ago, slmroz said:


 It could be really close in some cases and depend on strategy/league setup but if I really had to sort them ...
Capela, JJJ, Bam, Bryant, JV, Favors

 

 

Really tough since all of them are in a "new situation", I'd go

Tier 1

Capela - Big question is does RWB help or hurt him, since I have him first, I think he helps him but it seems like a lot of people have it the other way. No 3's, low FT, amazing FG

Favors - Going from a backup to the main guy on a fast paced (arguably fastest) team and has bounced back after a down year two seasons ago. Low 3's, low FT

 

Tier 2

JV - Put up insane numbers after the move to the grizzlies but that was without JJJ and Conley for stretches, very productive even in lower minutes, low blocks, good %s

Bam - Minutes are the question but I lean towards he gets 30+ and is even better in roto with the well rounded lines with emphasis on assists and steals and less blocks vs the other guys on the list 

JJJ - Was injured when JV came in so we haven't seen them together and question at PG with Morant coming in. Also, his block rate dipped as the season progressed so which is it. Lastly, fouls could be an issue. Best position is probably at C but with JV there and Clarke as an option as well. Should have a well rounded line with 3s and Blocks

 

Tier 3

Bryant - Better offensive player but team isn't very good, should get the minutes this year and is both efficient and shoots 3s which the rest of the guys on this list don't but 3s aren't hard to come by

 

As far as team build, it depends what you are mainly after - FG(Capela), Blocks (Favors), %s (JV), Assts/Stls (Bam), 3s+Blks (JJJ), 3s (Bryant)

 

Edited by chaiway
forgot JJJ

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5 hours ago, t0087669 said:

among the centres that ranked about round 4-5 (Yahoo), how would you guys rank them:

Favours, Bam, JJJ, Capela, Bryant, JV

I am personally interested to see what people think about Bam vs Bryant, who would you own?

Capela is by far first then comes JJJ and next all others.

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For me, since I am only playing Roto, Capela is a no-go because of the FT%.  And after starting the plan for my draft - as high as I am on Bryant and JJJ (super high on both), I think I would choose Bam over both of them now as well as JV and Favors.  Favors FT% knocks him below Bam, JJJ, Bryant,and JV for me.

And I think what changed for me is thinking more about the assists factor. 

If he can get 2.5-3.5 assists a game along with the expectation of a double double, 1 block, 1 steal, and good percentages, that is what pushes him ahead of them for me.  Especially considering Horford and Gasol will probably not be worth drafting because of where they would still go, there just isn't a lot of centers getting that assist number after the first two rounds along with a double double and his percentages.

I will definitely be paying attention to the assist numbers in preseason to see if around 3 will be for real for him.

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6 hours ago, t0087669 said:

among the centres that ranked about round 4-5 (Yahoo), how would you guys rank them:

Favours, Bam, JJJ, Capela, Bryant, JV

I am personally interested to see what people think about Bam vs Bryant, who would you own?

 

Tier one

1) Capela: Top 25, top 15 when punting FT%.  He might lose a couple of rebounds but he's improved in FT% and blocks every year (if you discount how few blocks he got when he returned from injury last year).  16/10/1.5; 1.8 blocks, .9 steals; 65%/65% with 1.5 TO.

 

Tier Two

2) JV: Finished top 50 in the last two months last season.  20/11/2 with 1.5 blocks, .5 steals, .5 threes.  56%/80% with 2.5 TO.  His popcorn stats and blocks are great and he's efficient in both categories.  Downside being his steals and threes are low and his TO are up with more volume.

3) Bam: Last season he finished 116 and top 60 the last two months.  He can finish around 60th on 13/9/3/1/1 on 58%/75%/1.5 TO.  His popcorn stats are a little lower than Jval, he gets fewer blocks, and he's a worse FT% shooter.  His assists won't make up for his deficit in other categories.

4) Favors: Finished 75th last season and 41st the last two months.  Plus, he will have more opportunity than he did last year.  He won't reach his prime Utah days when he was top 30 but I think he can finish top 60 this year, and be petty close to Bam.  14/8/1.5 with 1.6 blocks/.8 steals.  58%/67% on low volume (2/3 from the line), under 1.5 TO.

5) JJJ:  Finished 89th for the season and he was injured the last two months so we don't really know his upside; however, he has more potential to improve than the other guys.  He profiles as a poor rebounder and doesn't get assists.  He's also not as efficient as some people think, he shot barely over 50% last year, FT is below median, and his TO were high compared to his counting stats.  But he has 1/1/1 potential.  15/6/1.5 with 1.5 blocks, 1 three, 1 steal.  51%/76%/ 2 TO.  I think he finishes top 75 and will be overdrafted by those drafting him top 50.

6) Bryant: Finished 98th on the season and 86th the last two months, so there wasn't much progression there.  Top 75 on 16/8/1.5; 1.5 blocks, 1 three, .5 steals.  58 FT%/75% with 1 TO.  

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

 

Tier one

1) Capela: Top 25, top 15 when punting FT%.  He might lose a couple of rebounds but he's improved in FT% and blocks every year (if you discount how few blocks he got when he returned from injury last year).  16/10/1.5; 1.8 blocks, .9 steals; 65%/65% with 1.5 TO.

 

Tier Two

2) JV: Finished top 50 in the last two months last season.  20/11/2 with 1.5 blocks, .5 steals, .5 threes.  56%/80% with 2.5 TO.  His popcorn stats and blocks are great and he's efficient in both categories.  Downside being his steals and threes are low and his TO are up with more volume.

3) Bam: Last season he finished 116 and top 60 the last two months.  He can finish around 60th on 13/9/3/1/1 on 58%/75%/1.5 TO.  His popcorn stats are a little lower than Jval, he gets fewer blocks, and he's a worse FT% shooter.  His assists won't make up for his deficit in other categories.

4) Favors: Finished 75th last season and 41st the last two months.  Plus, he will have more opportunity than he did last year.  He won't reach his prime Utah days when he was top 30 but I think he can finish top 60 this year, and be petty close to Bam.  14/8/1.5 with 1.6 blocks/.8 steals.  58%/67% on low volume (2/3 from the line), under 1.5 TO.

5) JJJ:  Finished 89th for the season and he was injured the last two months so we don't really know his upside; however, he has more potential to improve than the other guys.  He profiles as a poor rebounder and doesn't get assists.  He's also not as efficient as some people think, he shot barely over 50% last year, FT is below median, and his TO were high compared to his counting stats.  But he has 1/1/1 potential.  15/6/1.5 with 1.5 blocks, 1 three, 1 steal.  51%/76%/ 2 TO.  I think he finishes top 75 and will be overdrafted by those drafting him top 50.

6) Bryant: Finished 98th on the season and 86th the last two months, so there wasn't much progression there.  Top 75 on 16/8/1.5; 1.5 blocks, 1 three, .5 steals.  58 FT%/75% with 1 TO.  

 

 

 

 

I'm higher on Favors.  He will play his natural position at Center and he's only 28, still has prime years ahead of him.  I'd take him ahead of Bam

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28 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

I'm higher on Favors.  He will play his natural position at Center and he's only 28, still has prime years ahead of him.  I'd take him ahead of Bam

While not being labelled injury anymore, his knees limit his upside.  The Jazz basically stated they played him under 25 mpg not bc of lack of fit but bc his body can’t handle it.  That and FT limits his upside to top 40.  That said, where do you place Bam and Favors?

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2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

While not being labelled injury anymore, his knees limit his upside.  The Jazz basically stated they played him under 25 mpg not bc of lack of fit but bc his body can’t handle it.  That and FT limits his upside to top 40.  That said, where do you place Bam and Favors?

 

I'm not high on any player coached under Speolstra.  Bam will most likely average 28 mpg and get numbers similar to what he got in March and April when Whiteside was out of the rotation.  Something like 12-9.5-3, 0.3 threes, 1, 1

 

Favors is the only big on that team and will finally be out of Gobert's shadow.  Can easily average 17-9, 1.2, 1.7.  They'll run him until the wheels fall off.

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21 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

I'm not high on any player coached under Speolstra.  Bam will most likely average 28 mpg and get numbers similar to what he got in March and April when Whiteside was out of the rotation.  Something like 12-9.5-3, 0.3 threes, 1, 1

 

Favors is the only big on that team and will finally be out of Gobert's shadow.  Can easily average 17-9, 1.2, 1.7.  They'll run him until the wheels fall off.

I don’t think Favors will hit those numbers given that they would be better than his best year in Utah even when he was healthy.  Though I could see him get (as a ceiling) 16/9, 1.6/1.  That would put him at around 35th.  He’s a great midrange shooter but that doesn’t help in fantasy compared to someone like Capela who is such a huge FG anchor due to scoring only on dunks.  His efficiency numbers should be around 55/66.  I see him as a Capela like player, just less of a FG anchor. He might be better than Bam though.

Edited by StifleTower2

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6 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I don’t think Favors will hit those numbers given that they would be better than his best year in Utah even when he was healthy.  Though I could see him get (as a ceiling) 16/9, 1.6/1.  That would put him at around 35th.  He’s a great midrange shooter but that doesn’t help in fantasy compared to someone like Capela who is such a huge FG anchor due to scoring only on dunks.  His efficiency numbers should be around 55/66.  I see him as a Capela like player, just less of a FG anchor. He might be better than Bam though.

 

I like Bam a lot but Spoelstra falls under the "do not draft players under this coach" category along with Walton, Fizdale, Kenny Atkinson, Larry Drew, and Brad Stevens

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3 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I don’t think Favors will hit those numbers given that they would be better than his best year in Utah even when he was healthy.  Though I could see him get (as a ceiling) 16/9, 1.6/1.  That would put him at around 35th.  He’s a great midrange shooter but that doesn’t help in fantasy compared to someone like Capela who is such a huge FG anchor due to scoring only on dunks.  His efficiency numbers should be around 55/66.  I see him as a Capela like player, just less of a FG anchor. He might be better than Bam though.

 

The thing is that Favors will be playing Center - i.e. closer to the basket, whereas I think he always played next to a center in Utah?  Kanter then Gobert?  His numbers (and Gobert's) go way way up without each other on the floor.  The minutes should be limited between 24-30 but increased / better role could equate to a career year. 

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3 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

The thing is that Favors will be playing Center - i.e. closer to the basket, whereas I think he always played next to a center in Utah?  Kanter then Gobert?  His numbers (and Gobert's) go way way up without each other on the floor.  The minutes should be limited between 24-30 but increased / better role could equate to a career year. 

I understand the argument.  But he had his best year in 2015-2016 playing next to Gobert on 32 MPG.  Since then his MPG have been: 24, 28, 24.  He has chronic knee issues, it has little to do with playing with other centers.  It's really funny that I'm playing Devil's Advocate because I've supported Favors before and it's bizarre to be on the other side of.  I think he can be good, as I stated top 40-50.  But if you think he's having a career year by playing > 32 MPG on those knees, banging against other centers.  Good luck.

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