sjm76

Sam Darnold 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Haven't seen a 2019 thread on him yet so I figured that I would create one.

Darnold finished with 17 td's and 15 interceptions last year which doesn't look too impressive but he passed for over 500 yards combined in his last 2 home games with 5 td's which could be a sign that he finally figured it out at the end of the season.

Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa are 2 solid wr's and the Jets also added Le'Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder which should only aid Darnold's stats.

Not sure about how anyone else feels but I think that he could end up being a solid qb2 this year with back end qb1 upside if everything goes right and he is going undrafted in non 2 qb league drafts so he can be had very cheaply.

Edited by sjm76

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He is definitely on my watch list.  He is growing on a basically rebuilt team.  Watching him very close and worth a flyer,  the receivers interest me greatly, because one of them is going to get targeted on the increasing ability of Darnold as the year progresses.  My sleeper on this roster is Enuwa.

 

Darnold is going to have a much better year with L Bell getting all the attention, Mr Bell can catch as well.  :)    This team has massive upside.

 

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Posted (edited)

I’ve been getting Darnold as my QB3 in almost every one of my 2 QB mock drafts. Usually the 10th or 11th round (10 teamer). I’ve been wondering if I’m too high on him. He’s one of the very few QBs after #18 or so that I think have a decent chance at finishing as a QB1. Cousins and Garoppolo are probably the only other ones IMO.

Edited by gufomel

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16 minutes ago, gufomel said:

I’ve been getting Darnold as my QB3 in almost every one of my 2 QB mock drafts. Usually the 10th or 11th round (10 teamer). I’ve been wondering if I’m too high on him. He’s one of the very few QBs after #18 or so that I think have a decent chance at finishing as a QB1. Cousins and Garoppolo are probably the only other ones IMO.

Stafford also but HC Patricia seems to have turned him from consistently low end QB1 for multiple seasons to barely rosterable QB3 now. 

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3 hours ago, gufomel said:

I’ve been getting Darnold as my QB3 in almost every one of my 2 QB mock drafts. Usually the 10th or 11th round (10 teamer). I’ve been wondering if I’m too high on him. He’s one of the very few QBs after #18 or so that I think have a decent chance at finishing as a QB1. Cousins and Garoppolo are probably the only other ones IMO.

 

Darnold finishing between 15-20 in QB rankings seems optimistic. I think he’s a solid QB but for fantasy purposes he throws too many interceptions and doesn’t rush enough. I wouldn’t reach for him. Also I don’t trust Adam Gase one bit and think Jets could be a disaster. 

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Yeah, just not feeling it.  I'm reading several experts that are so high on this guy with the good hair.  But I'm just not seeing it.  Receiving weapons are a little shaky, plus they face one of the most difficult cornerback schedules out there.  Sure, he's got Lev Bell to help take some pressure off.  But do we really expect this guy to be top 15?  Maybe he's an option in 2 QB leagues or as a 1 week fill-in.  If you're in a 1 QB league and just looking for a backup, Darnold's going to be there when you need your bye week fill-in so just pick him up then.

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I think we may see a Carson Wentz type year 2. Bell, Anderson, enunwa, Crowder and Herndon are very solid weapons. 

Darnold was starting to emerge at the end of last year.

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I'm a Jets fan and would love to see him develop into a QB1 for fantasy purposes, but I don't think he will achieve that in 2019. He still has a ways to go and Enunwa and Anderson (and Crowder) all have a history of disappearing for long stretches. I think he could be worth a spot start or two in leagues that use only one QB, but otherwise is a 2QB league option only. 

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His 16 game pace last year was about 3500 yards, 23/20 TD/INT, 150 yards rushing, 1.5 TD.

 

He was also 21, a rookie, and playing in a bad scheme with bad weapons. Everything is improved for him this year, and things should continue improving with him as he matures. 

 

 

2019 projection:

3800 yards, 26/14 TD/INT, 200 yards rushing, 2 TD.

QB 16 overall.

 

 

2020 and beyond projection:

4000 yards, 30/10 TD/INT, 200 + 2.

QB 8-12 overall on a regular basis. Not great upside but consistent borderline QB1/QB2 finish.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

His 16 game pace last year was about 3500 yards, 23/20 TD/INT, 150 yards rushing, 1.5 TD.

 

He was also 21, a rookie, and playing in a bad scheme with bad weapons. Everything is improved for him this year, and things should continue improving with him as he matures. 

 

 

2019 projection:

3800 yards, 26/14 TD/INT, 200 yards rushing, 2 TD.

QB 16 overall.

 

 

2020 and beyond projection:

4000 yards, 30/10 TD/INT, 200 + 2.

QB 8-12 overall on a regular basis. Not great upside but consistent borderline QB1/QB2 finish.

 

 

 

After he took a month off to heal an "injury" last year he returned a new QB. His stats in his final 4 games:

80/125 for a a very solid 64pct Comp Pct

931 Yards passing (3724 yards over a 16 game season)

6TDs/1INt (24/4 over the course of a 16 game season). 

 

The offensive line is better. The Coaches are better. The WR talent is better. The RB is one of the best of our lifetime. 

So I think those 2019 projections are VERY reasonable and possibly a little too conservative. 

In 1 QB leagues he is nothing special, but in 2 QB leagues I think he will be the steal of some teams drafts/auctions. 

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Some good points but on the flipside are we sure that his offensive line has gotten that much better? Sure they just added two pieces in camp but they haven't even played together.

They really haven't added much to their WR corp except Crowder who should be only a slight upgrade over Kearse.

2nd year QB learning a new system in as many years should experience some growing pains.

Finally, from a fantasy perspective, the QB position is loaded. You can get guys like Trubisky and Allen in the 13th round and they have much higher ceilings because of their rushing prowess. Darnold should improve as a franchise QB in 2019 but that doesn't make him fantasy relevant.

 

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He is going to be a stud this year any many years to come. He will finish as a top 10 fantasy qb this year, book it

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29 minutes ago, rhg1084 said:

He is going to be a stud this year any many years to come. He will finish as a top 10 fantasy qb this year, book it

I have to respectfully disagree. 

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Darnold looked pretty good for the short time he was out there yesterday.  How do we feel about drafting him as a backup vs. other backup options like Philip Rivers and Mitch Trubisky?

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Not afraid of starting Darnold as my QB1 this year.  Not skurred at all.  I think the results are going to be much better than expected.  

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On 8/9/2019 at 7:32 PM, sjm76 said:

Darnold looked pretty good for the short time he was out there yesterday.  How do we feel about drafting him as a backup vs. other backup options like Philip Rivers and Mitch Trubisky?

 

Depends on what you need from your backup QB.  Rivers never gets hurt and is reasonably certain to put up numbers that won't kill you any given week.  Darnold at this point in his career is kind of a poor man's Rivers IMHO, just one with a longer career ahead of him and a chance to become a rich man's Rivers if he and the Jets continue to progress. 

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4 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

Depends on what you need from your backup QB.  Rivers never gets hurt and is reasonably certain to put up numbers that won't kill you any given week.  Darnold at this point in his career is kind of a poor man's Rivers IMHO, just one with a longer career ahead of him and a chance to become a rich man's Rivers if he and the Jets continue to progress. 

His schedule looks pretty scary in terms of  secondaries he will be facing.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

His schedule looks pretty scary in terms of  secondaries he will be facing.

 

Guy has plenty of really nice receiving options - Robby, Quincy, Jamison, Herdnon, and then Bell.  Loving the options this kid has.  I like the fact that google eyed Gase is helping him hone his game.  All accounts say Darnold is a beast when it comes to motivation and preparation.  I'm talking myself more and more into him being QB1 quality.  

 

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9 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Guy has plenty of really nice receiving options - Robby, Quincy, Jamison, Herdnon, and then Bell.  Loving the options this kid has.  I like the fact that google eyed Gase is helping him hone his game.  All accounts say Darnold is a beast when it comes to motivation and preparation.  I'm talking myself more and more into him being QB1 quality.  

  

 

Yeah, his receiving options are very underrated. Herndon is going to be a stud when he gets back from his suspension. But Anderson/Enunwa/Crowder/Bell will be more than enough the first 4 games. The Oline is also better than most think. 

I definitely see a Carson Wentz type 2nd year explosion for Darnold. While everyone is overpaying for Mayfield (who will also be really good) I think you can get Darnold towards the ends of your drafts and get similar production. 

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I'm going all-in on Darnold this year.  My only QB in my big money league.  Complete and total raw dog.  Last season my raw dog QB was Mahomes, the year prior was Wentz.  I really hate the Jets as a fan but I really like what they have put together - I believe Gase is going to help Darnold and provide structure.

I see Darnold in the Top Ten pretty easily this year.  

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Looking at a multi-week absence.  Downgrade all your Jets.  Trevor Siemian is back.

Edited by ludawg23

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Just now, FlashGordon401 said:

Fire up your CLE D/ST.

Trevor Siemian...woof.  Turnovers are back on the menu, boys!

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