UcanTry

Justice Hill 2019 Outlook

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I searched and did not see a thread for Justice Hill, if i missed it sorry but wanted to gather some info. So what are we expecting here for Hill? Everything I’ve heard and read speaks about how electric he is and how its possible he could overtake Ingram later on in the year. As a Dynasty owner when is this guy worth drafting? According to Dynasty Rookie ADP he’s coming off the board as Pick 18 RB7, seems kind of late for his potential? Is this guy worth a 1st round pick late in Dynasty? In redraft he is worth a roster spot as well, I’d guess the Ravens are going to use a lot of RBs but wouldn’t Hill be the PPR guy, if the Ravens have one. 

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18 seems about right for a rookie draft, in my opinion. Are you taking him ahead of guys like Marquise Brown, Isabella, or JJAW? I think he has a real shot to make a living in the NFL as a COP third down back. I can't see him being a lead back at any point though, so I'm not drafting him in the first or early 2nd of a rookie draft. 

 

He should immediately push Dixon for the pass catching roll behind Ingram. Gus is still there too, but he's not much of a pass catcher. His ceiling is to become a Gio Bernard type, and his floor is any of the dozens of similarly profiled backs we've seen amount to nothing in the NFL. 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

18 seems about right for a rookie draft, in my opinion. Are you taking him ahead of guys like Marquise Brown, Isabella, or JJAW? I think he has a real shot to make a living in the NFL as a COP third down back. I can't see him being a lead back at any point though, so I'm not drafting him in the first or early 2nd of a rookie draft. 

 

He should immediately push Dixon for the pass catching roll behind Ingram. Gus is still there too, but he's not much of a pass catcher. His ceiling is to become a Gio Bernard type, and his floor is any of the dozens of similarly profiled backs we've seen amount to nothing in the NFL. 

 

So if we are looking at the Rookie RBS, is there anyone around that same tier that might be better options?

 

Does the Ravens run game hurt or help him?

Edited by UcanTry

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21 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

He should immediately push Dixon for the pass catching roll behind Ingram. Gus is still there too, but he's not much of a pass catcher. His ceiling is to become a Gio Bernard type, and his floor is any of the dozens of similarly profiled backs we've seen amount to nothing in the NFL. 

I'm assuming you're quoting this from somewhere, but ouch, that seems harsh.  "Amount to nothing in the NFL"?  Not everyone can be a superstar, but there's plenty of guys who have made themselves financially set for life by playing a few years in the NFL.

Player profiler has this guy's comparison as Reggie Bush, which seems about right.  4.40 forty time, which is in the 97%.  Speed score 82% and Burst score 95%. If you watch some of his college vid, he looks electric.  But what college highlight reel makes a guy look bad?  He's 5'10" 198 pounds, so not much different than Mark Ingram's 5'9" and 215 pounds.  Maybe 15 pounds really makes a difference in the NFL, because I can see that the higher ups are always going to question this guys ability to run between the tackles.

I think he's worth a late double digit round flyer as one of your lotto tickets and see what happens.

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I think he’s gonna gash defenses in that offense. What they lacked last year was an electric, speed guy to make defenses pay for over-pursuit. Lamar Jackson is a speed guy, of course, but the defense is flowing with him. Gashing them with Hill (or Brown on end-arounds) a few times will keep defenses honest and make that offense even more difficult to defend. I thought it was brilliant drafting.

I also think Hill can absolutely handle a full load, he held up pretty well getting the ball a ton in college and like a lot of shifty guys, he doesn’t take a lot of big hits. That said I don’t think he will unless one (or both) of Edwards or Ingram gets hurt, but in a dynasty league he’s absolutely worth a look. The Ravens have rode small-ish backs before (Forsett was only 198 as well).

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2 hours ago, CooL said:

I'm assuming you're quoting this from somewhere, but ouch, that seems harsh.  "Amount to nothing in the NFL"?  Not everyone can be a superstar, but there's plenty of guys who have made themselves financially set for life by playing a few years in the NFL.

Player profiler has this guy's comparison as Reggie Bush, which seems about right.  4.40 forty time, which is in the 97%.  Speed score 82% and Burst score 95%. If you watch some of his college vid, he looks electric.  But what college highlight reel makes a guy look bad?  He's 5'10" 198 pounds, so not much different than Mark Ingram's 5'9" and 215 pounds.  Maybe 15 pounds really makes a difference in the NFL, because I can see that the higher ups are always going to question this guys ability to run between the tackles.

I think he's worth a late double digit round flyer as one of your lotto tickets and see what happens.

Don't get it twisted, that wasn't a specific knock on Hill. Any 4th round pick in the NFL has a low floor. There's nothing about Hill that says, "there's no way this guy isn't a bust". 

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2 hours ago, UcanTry said:

 

So if we are looking at the Rookie RBS, is there anyone around that same tier that might be better options?

 

Does the Ravens run game hurt or help him?

From a dynasty perspective.

 

Jacobs 

Montgomery

Sanders

Henderson

Singletary

Harris

Hill

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15 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

From a dynasty perspective.

 

Jacobs 

Montgomery

Sanders

Henderson

Singletary

Harris

Hill

 

Well yeah I get the big names so I guess on this list, people are going Singletary or Harris over him?

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3 minutes ago, UcanTry said:

 

Well yeah I get the big names so I guess on this list, people are going Singletary or Harris over him?

At that point of a rookie draft, it's personal preference. There's no right or wrong answer. I prefer to go with the guy who has the most upside. Harris and Singletary both have lead back traits, Hill is a complementary piece, IMO. Certainly wouldn't say you were for going Hill over either of those guys. 

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

At that point of a rookie draft, it's personal preference. There's no right or wrong answer. I prefer to go with the guy who has the most upside. Harris and Singletary both have lead back traits, Hill is a complementary piece, IMO. Certainly wouldn't say you were for going Hill over either of those guys. 

 

So let’s say your sitting at end of round 1 and both Hockenson and Hill/Singletary. With needs at both positions for depth. Who’s the better let’s say 2 year bet here?

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9 minutes ago, UcanTry said:

 

So let’s say your sitting at end of round 1 and both Hockenson and Hill/Singletary. With needs at both positions for depth. Who’s the better let’s say 2 year bet here?

Hockenson. Not particularly close. 

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Isn't this supposed to be a redraft thread? I personally think the hype outweighs the value right now because Ingram is a 3 down back.  I don't think he'll have stand alone value without an Ingram injury which is no more or less likely to happen than other backs. To this end, I'd rather wait for a Chase Edmonds than pony up for Hill.  Definitely excited to see him though.

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20 hours ago, Magoo said:

Isn't this supposed to be a redraft thread? I personally think the hype outweighs the value right now because Ingram is a 3 down back.  I don't think he'll have stand alone value without an Ingram injury which is no more or less likely to happen than other backs. To this end, I'd rather wait for a Chase Edmonds than pony up for Hill.  Definitely excited to see him though.

I actually see him having some stand alone value. If Ingram is such a complete 3 down back, why did Kamara ever succeed in tandem with him? Could you not see Hill filling a similar role? Especially with the number of RB touches the Ravens should have this season, I see no reason Hill can’t become at least an RB3/FLEX type player. Dynamic athlete, more than likely will fill the 3rd down/change of pace role with a QB that will be looking to dump off... I can see this working and will be targeting Hill at his current ADP of ~140, I like his chances more than other players going there (Singletary, Smith, Mattison, etc.) 

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37 minutes ago, coffey22 said:

I actually see him having some stand alone value. If Ingram is such a complete 3 down back, why did Kamara ever succeed in tandem with him? Could you not see Hill filling a similar role? Especially with the number of RB touches the Ravens should have this season, I see no reason Hill can’t become at least an RB3/FLEX type player. Dynamic athlete, more than likely will fill the 3rd down/change of pace role with a QB that will be looking to dump off... I can see this working and will be targeting Hill at his current ADP of ~140, I like his chances more than other players going there (Singletary, Smith, Mattison, etc.) 

I'm high on Hill this year, especially in deeper PPR leagues

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He’s basically Phillip Lindsay 2.0 on a team who is expecting to run 35+ times.

 

Mark Ingram solidifies as the early down and short yardage back but the COP (which I think will be a higher volume than others) has value. IE. 1a and 1b

 

So whoever wins the 1b position will get at least 10 touches 

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12 hours ago, Nguvocity said:

So whoever wins the 1b position will get at least 10 touches 

Yeah but that's with a lot of if and when. They also still have Gus the Bus, and Dixon is out there somewhere, and of course then there's LJax. 

Justice Hill might be the next Kamara talent-wise for all I know but that is a seriously muddy backfield to draft into.

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25 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yeah but that's with a lot of if and when. They also still have Gus the Bus, and Dixon is out there somewhere, and of course then there's LJax. 

Justice Hill might be the next Kamara talent-wise for all I know but that is a seriously muddy backfield to draft into.

 

Remember the year Ak came in the league?

 

AP, Ingram, AND AK.

 

 

 

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I generally avoid pass-catching backs on teams with running QBs.  Often those QB's "dump off" move is to tuck the ball and run, not throw it to a back.

Hill is an intriguing talent but I don't love the situation.  

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2 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

I generally avoid pass-catching backs on teams with running QBs.  Often those QB's "dump off" move is to tuck the ball and run, not throw it to a back.

Hill is an intriguing talent but I don't love the situation.  

Yea Lamar isn’t checking down. Don’t see any Baltimore backs having PPR value, including Hill.

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too much optimism and wishfull thinking, people are reaching. Baltimore didnt pay ingram to not play him, and evan silva has said lamar jackson doesnt check or dump down, thus ingram and hill wont be catching much at all, and in PPR leagues, that hurts. 

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If you're drafting Hill and wanting to be rewarded you need 2 things to happen :

 

1) Ingram long term injury 

2) Hill develops as a runner 

 

Without these 2 he should have almost zero impact in 2019,and barring long term injury to Ingram... 2020 as well. 

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3 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

If you're drafting Hill and wanting to be rewarded you need 2 things to happen :

 

1) Ingram long term injury 

2) Hill develops as a runner 

 

Without these 2 he should have almost zero impact in 2019,and barring long term injury to Ingram... 2020 as well. 

Pretty much...Ingram has been remarkably durable (esp lately)--doesn't mean it will continue for sure but he is not injury prone in the least. He also is very good at catching and won't cede passing down work. Toss in Gus Bus and the fact that Lamar is not a check down passer and it will be a pretty limited set of plays for him in all likelihood.

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Ok. I get it. It's preseason. Everyone looks great....but he looked great last night. Fast, agile, athletic, and big enough to be durable. Given how much Baltimore wants to run this year, both Ingram and someone should have value this year, making Hill a late round guy I'll be targeting.

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Posted (edited)

So, in my 16 Team Dynasty rookie draft, I have pick 12 the first 9 picks were:

1. Montgomery

2. Jacobs

3. Sanders

4.  Harry

5. Henderson

6. Singletary

7. Harris

8. Murray

9. Haskins

I am definitely in need of a RB and am considering either Hill, Pollard, Mattison or D. Thompson at pick 12.  That is early for all 3 of them but RB are going off the board fast.  Also, there are so many decent WR in this class, I think I can still get one in the 2nd Round.  I am leaning towards HIll out of that group.  Is it too early to take him at 1.12?  Im not even sure which WR I would go for.  Def don't want to spend my 1st Round pick on a TE either.

Hill had a great preseason game and i own Gus.  This is really eating at me.

Edited by brakeyawself

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2 hours ago, brakeyawself said:

So, in my 16 Team Dynasty rookie draft, I have pick 12 the first 9 picks were:

1. Montgomery

2. Jacobs

3. Sanders

4.  Harry

5. Henderson

6. Singletary

7. Harris

8. Murray

9. Haskins

I am definitely in need of a RB and am considering either Hill, Pollard, Mattison or D. Thompson at pick 12.  That is early for all 3 of them but RB are going off the board fast.  Also, there are so many decent WR in this class, I think I can still get one in the 2nd Round.  I am leaning towards HIll out of that group.  Is it too early to take him at 1.12?  Im not even sure which WR I would go for.  Def don't want to spend my 1st Round pick on a TE either.

Hill had a great preseason game and i own Gus.  This is really eating at me.

 

I'm kind of surprised to see the negativity surrounding Hill in this thread. In dynasty you consider long term talent, not the short term situation. I'm most impressed by Hill's preseason and college tape. I would go Hill and let it play out. The other guys you mentioned may have good games but I don't think they're the answer for their teams.

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