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Justice Hill 2019 Outlook

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6 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Scroll back through the earlier comments in this post and check out the head I was taking for suggesting he wouldn't be ownable this season. 

 

 

This season?  We’re three weeks in. A lot can happen young chap. 

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9 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

If you scroll back through the comments in this thread people were talking him up like the next Alvin Kamara (this season). I'd also venture to say that the majority of FFL leagues are redraft and shallow. A very small percentage plays in deeper / dynasty type leagues. So while I get your point I don't think it justifies the ridiculous hype he was getting for this season. 

 

It's week 4. 

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I agree that there’s serious talent here, and that if Jackson got better at including RBs in the passing game, he could be a force late in the season if Mark Ingram goes down. 

 

My whole thing is that really its very clear Hill will only have a chance to pop this year if Ingram goes down. He mighty of course, he’s 29 and he’s a feature back in a run heavy offense. 

The question then becomes Edwards or Hill. I think we have data that suggests Baltimore trusts Edwards, even this season. If Ingram goes down I feel strongly that Edwards will be the more valuable back. Next season who knows, and of course I might be wrong but I’m making the Hill for Edwards drop I think. 

 

Nervous about it but I feel Edwards would take the Ingram role and Hill would be scoring 5-10 points per game maybe in .5 ppr. 

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2 minutes ago, MellamoMike said:

 

Nervous about it but I feel Edwards would take the Ingram role and Hill would be scoring 5-10 points per game maybe in .5 ppr. 

 

if he doesn't get in the endzone, maybe so. But if he scores, then you're talking 11-16 ppg, with chance for more.

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1 minute ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

if he doesn't get in the endzone, maybe so. But if he scores, then you're talking 11-16 ppg, with chance for more.

 

I was being a tad generous I don’t think he consistently goes for 5-10 without a TD even if Ingram goes down and I feel that Edwards would get the reliable red zone work. Making Hill a total touchdown lottery ticket. 

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Just now, MellamoMike said:

 

I was being a tad generous I don’t think he consistently goes for 5-10 without a TD even if Ingram goes down and I feel that Edwards would get the reliable red zone work. Making Hill a total touchdown lottery ticket. 

 

Hill already got redzone looks and almost scored when Ingram was out of the game with a shoulder in week 2.

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1 minute ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Hill already got redzone looks and almost scored when Ingram was out of the game with a shoulder in week 2.

 

So has Edwards? It’s a tough decision for me. If Ingram gets hurt I need his handcuff. I just don’t see the evidence for why Hill would ever leapfrog Edwards. Edwards has looked good this year and last year. He’s not JAG. If we are talking Ingram’s handcuff I’m sorry I don’t think the safe choice is Hill. If you think you have that evidence I would sincerely love to hear. 

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2 minutes ago, MellamoMike said:

 

So has Edwards? It’s a tough decision for me. If Ingram gets hurt I need his handcuff. I just don’t see the evidence for why Hill would ever leapfrog Edwards. Edwards has looked good this year and last year. He’s not JAG. If we are talking Ingram’s handcuff I’m sorry I don’t think the safe choice is Hill. If you think you have that evidence I would sincerely love to hear. 

 

I don't have Ingram but I definitely want a piece of this backfield in my deep league, which is why I drafted Hill. I viewed him as a long term injury stash from the start but now I'm wondering who is the better stash and thinking about dropping him for Edwards. I think they both will have value and be hot waiver adds if Ingram goes down though. Also may depend on what kind of league you're in, standard vs ppr. 

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4 minutes ago, owenmills said:

 

I don't have Ingram but I definitely want a piece of this backfield in my deep league, which is why I drafted Hill. I viewed him as a long term injury stash from the start but now I'm wondering who is the better stash and thinking about dropping him for Edwards. I think they both will have value and be hot waiver adds if Ingram goes down though. Also may depend on what kind of league you're in, standard vs ppr. 

 

I am in .5 ppr but I don’t think it even matters that much here unless you’re in a dynasty full ppr league. And something no one is dealing with in here so that Lamar Jackson does not love to throw to his running backs. That won’t magically change if the (competent receiving) Mark Ingram goes down. Edwards will rush 15-20 times a game at least, get red zone looks, and catch a pass or two. Hill will not outscore him. I don’t see it. And I’ve been agonizing for two weeks. I’m ready to drop hill. I am sure they will both be hot waiver adds if there’s an Ingram injury. I just feel Edwards would be the money choice. 

Edited by MellamoMike

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13 minutes ago, MellamoMike said:

 

I am in .5 ppr but I don’t think it even matters that much here unless you’re in a dynasty full ppr league. And something no one is dealing with in here so that Lamar Jackson does not love to throw to his running backs. That won’t magically change if the (competent receiving) Mark Ingram goes down. Edwards will rush 15-20 times a game at least, get red zone looks, and catch a pass or two. Hill will not outscore him. I don’t see it. And I’ve been agonizing for two weeks. I’m ready to drop hill. I am sure they will both be hot waiver adds if there’s an Ingram injury. I just feel Edwards would be the money choice. 

I agree. I'm dropping him this week.

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28 minutes ago, MellamoMike said:

 

So has Edwards? It’s a tough decision for me. If Ingram gets hurt I need his handcuff. I just don’t see the evidence for why Hill would ever leapfrog Edwards. Edwards has looked good this year and last year. He’s not JAG. If we are talking Ingram’s handcuff I’m sorry I don’t think the safe choice is Hill. If you think you have that evidence I would sincerely love to hear. 

 

I never said Hill would take over as the early down back, I still think that's Gus.

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15 hours ago, astrongcupofjoel said:

signs of life. 

 

i haven't watched film but his name came up on a few podcasts and the reviews were strong.

 

anyone see his runs?

No, but I will be watching closely this Sunday.

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15 hours ago, astrongcupofjoel said:

signs of life. 

 

i haven't watched film but his name came up on a few podcasts and the reviews were strong.

 

anyone see his runs?

When I started reading this post I thought "Wow did the coach move him up the depth chart? Did someone get hurt? Did the coach say he will get more work?" and etc.

Nope. Just some dudes that watch football said he looks good.

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Justice Hill

Hill saw his role expand in Week 6, rushing for 31 yards on five carries - the most he’s seen since Week 1. All afternoon he flashed the speed and athleticism that made his such an exciting prospect coming out of Oklahoma State. The Ravens didn’t try anything flashy with him as he was hitting the holes hard and bursting through for positive yardage. His most impressive play of the game came on a run that only netted a few yards but saw him reverse field on a busted play. He outran everyone to reverse the field and if he had one more blocker in front of him, he could have been off for a big gain.

The Ravens usage of all three backs was interesting as they were rotated regularly without one of them taking a bulk of the snaps. This could be the plan with Mark Ingram in order to ensure he is healthy for December and January football. Expect to see more of Justice Hill moving forward, you can only keep that kind of athleticism bottled up for so long.

https://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2019/10/14/20913618/ravens-rookie-report-week-6-marquise-hollywood-brown-miles-boykin-justice-hill-jaylon-ferguson

 

 

 

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His issue wasn't really ever looking good(he looked great in preseason), it's getting touches. Ingram has to go down for either Gus or Justice to be fantasy relevant. 

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10 hours ago, Gohawks said:

When I started reading this post I thought "Wow did the coach move him up the depth chart? Did someone get hurt? Did the coach say he will get more work?" and etc.

Nope. Just some dudes that watch football said he looks good.

 

why is it so hard to find footage these days?? everyone watching him says he looked awesome and i wanna see!

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Analysis from pre-season that I heard was that it was going to be minimal usage first half of the season leading to a gradual uptick in usage which meant if Ingram didn't go down early he was a drop (Gus handcuff) unless you have deep benches and could manage stashing through bye weeks. Their prediction (I think) was having the main share of the carries week 12 on. I've been able to hang on to him, but I would be looking to snag him off waivers on their bye next week for a stash and pray.

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Going to take a look at Justice Hill compared to other committee backs or handcuffs next week.  Hate to say it, but I hope J. Hill has a quiet week in a couple of days against Seattle.

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