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Justice Hill 2019 Outlook

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43 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

Reggie Bush has been the popular comparison

 

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3 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

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You cut out the part where it says Justice Hill's best comparable is Reggie Bush 😉. Reggie Bush's best comparable is Jamaal Charles though so it's kind of trivial. This is strictly a physical, athletic comparison and says nothing about their football ability however, so its a little disingenuous (you picked two great athletes that also were great football players) especially since there are countless combine heroes who have amounted to nothing.  I don't deny Justice Hill is in impressive athletic tier, that's part of what makes him an attractive option but great athlete doesn't directly translate into great football player particularly at the RB position. I'm not as familiar with how Jamaal Charles looked coming out of college but Reggie Bush (and as evidence by his draft capital) was regarded as not just an elite athlete but a potentially elite RB talent. From this point of view Jamaal Charles might be a more apt comparison holistically but just cause they profiled similarly out of college that doesn't inherently mean their professional careers will go the same way. Still, I think this is emblematic of Hill's upside and a source of the hype and how it has some merit to it. LaMichael James is the first name that pops in my head but I'm sure there are many more and much more comparable guys that fit this similar ultra athletic, smaller/low BMI RB profile even ones with significant draft capital like LaMichael James who didn't do much of anything in the pros and if you listed all the guys that fits this profile Jamaal Charles and Reggie Bush would be 2 of the best pros on the list (so using them is a bit biased when the comparison is strictly on physical and athletic level and a lot more guys have fit that profile over the years.). 

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1 minute ago, Jaw1 said:

 

You cut out the part where it says Justice Hill's best comparable is Reggie Bush 😉. Reggie Bush's best comparable is Jamaal Charles though so it's kind of trivial.

 

It's pretty trivial since they go in and hand edit them to update it to something more "popular".  There seems to be no algorithm behind some of them.

 

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 This is strictly a physical, athletic comparison and says nothing about their football ability however, so its a little disingenuous

 

It's not disingenuous.  I think people understand those are only numbers and not a measure of "football ability'.  If you want a physical comparison to a successful NFL running back, it's pretty close.  That doesn't mean Justice Hill will produce the way Jamaal Charles did, it was simply an example I remember of a successful player who was around that same size.  Generally speaking, running backs with a higher BMI (IE: A bit heavier and around the same height..more like 215-225) are more successful.

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Posted (edited)
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It's pretty trivial since they go in and hand edit them to update it to something more "popular".  There seems to be no algorithm behind some of them.

My comment there was a bit tongue-in cheek. Like I admitted, Jamaal Charles is probably a more apt comparison than Reggie Bush. The player comps seem quite algorithmic and scientific, have you seen Kelvin Benjamin's comp? /s.

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It's not disingenuous.  I think people understand those are only numbers and not a measure of "football ability'.  If you want a physical comparison to a successful NFL running back, it's pretty close.  That doesn't mean Justice Hill will produce the way Jamaal Charles did, it was simply an example I remember of a successful player who was around that same size.  Generally speaking, running backs with a higher BMI (IE: A bit heavier and around the same height..more like 215-225) are more successful.

 

Yes, in the strictest sense and if people are being reasonable. However, people often act irrationally especially if it conforms with their preconceived notions. I think a more balanced approach would to show not only a successful player with a similar athletic profile as Justice Hill like Jamaal Charles which represents the upside available but also a player with a similar athletic profile and who may have been even more highly regarded out of college who didn't have a successful NFL career to show how things may not work for Justice Hill. Just highlighting Jamaal Charles puts a spotlight on the promising side of things without highlighting the sobering reality that a vast majority of players with relatively similar make-up are a far cry from Charles. While this is obvious to a reasonable person, once again, I guess I have a less optimistic outlook on the rationality of people (I won't even necessarily say the majority of people are inherently unreasonable but the ones who are tend to be disproportionately vocal).

Edited by Jaw1

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7 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

Is that a letterman jacket? v sick.  buying shares where I can because of fashion reasons

 

7 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

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They may have similar measurable, but Justice Hill doesn't run like Reggie Bush or Jammal Charles at all. Those guys were slashers who moved like gazelles. Hill is really shifty and runs with a lower center of gravity. He's also a lot stronger and more physical than Charles or Bush were coming out of college.

A much better comparison would be someone like Brian Westbrook or Maurice Jones Drew.  

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2 hours ago, OrangeAggie said:

They may have similar measurable, but Justice Hill doesn't run like Reggie Bush or Jammal Charles at all. Those guys were slashers who moved like gazelles. Hill is really shifty and runs with a lower center of gravity. He's also a lot stronger and more physical than Charles or Bush were coming out of college.

A much better comparison would be someone like Brian Westbrook or Maurice Jones Drew.  

Excellent post, too often we compare players simply based on physical stature or appearance.  Similar to comparing all white players only to other white players, etc.

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14 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Excellent post, too often we compare players simply based on physical stature or appearance.  Similar to comparing all white players only to other white players, etc.

 

Yea kind of like that Panthers rb Edelman.  Dude is a beast!

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1 minute ago, poofinger said:

He reminds me of Barry Sanders and Jim Brown. Kind of. 

 

... sprinkle in some Rob Carpenter & EZ Ed Podolak to balance out the melanin scale

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How can the next Alvin Kamara have only 44 catches in 2 years of college starts? Was it just a QB thing?

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So what's the deal with this guy...gonna start off with playing time or have to sit behind Ingram/Gus/Dixon?

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4 minutes ago, scheibler said:

So what's the deal with this guy...gonna start off with playing time or have to sit behind Ingram/Gus/Dixon?

 

I'd say they'll ramp up his usage slowly and he'll be a decent to good flex by mid season (PPR Leagues Only).

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15 minutes ago, Monkeyman74 said:

How can the next Alvin Kamara have only 44 catches in 2 years of college starts? Was it just a QB thing?

 

They just handed him the ball and he took off Forrest Gump style. 

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52 minutes ago, Monkeyman74 said:

How can the next Alvin Kamara have only 44 catches in 2 years of college starts? Was it just a QB thing?

I wouldnt read too much into this. He had 31 rec as a SO, but only 13 as a JR. I'm sure he didn't forget how to catch. 

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1 hour ago, scheibler said:

So what's the deal with this guy...gonna start off with playing time or have to sit behind Ingram/Gus/Dixon?

 

Dixon ain't making the team.  Justice will see ~8 touches at a minimum, imo and that will possibly increase as he shows what he's capable of to the coaches.  

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For what it’s worth, NFL had Kamara’s draft comparison listed as Thomas Jones 

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1 hour ago, Monkeyman74 said:

Seems like a steal in round 10, no?

I wouldn’t say so. I’d expect Hill to be used as a gadget type guy to keep defenses honest while the Ravens continue to play keep away and pound the ball with the option. A 2 RB set with Hill + Ingram/Edwards will likely be used a lot, and will for 2+ defenders to spy Hill’s side of the field. Perfect to balance the option. But temper your expectations this year. This is the Ingram/Edwards show.

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On 8/28/2019 at 10:19 PM, Jaw1 said:

 

You cut out the part where it says Justice Hill's best comparable is Reggie Bush 😉. Reggie Bush's best comparable is Jamaal Charles though so it's kind of trivial. This is strictly a physical, athletic comparison and says nothing about their football ability however, so its a little disingenuous (you picked two great athletes that also were great football players) especially since there are countless combine heroes who have amounted to nothing.  I don't deny Justice Hill is in impressive athletic tier, that's part of what makes him an attractive option but great athlete doesn't directly translate into great football player particularly at the RB position. I'm not as familiar with how Jamaal Charles looked coming out of college but Reggie Bush (and as evidence by his draft capital) was regarded as not just an elite athlete but a potentially elite RB talent. From this point of view Jamaal Charles might be a more apt comparison holistically but just cause they profiled similarly out of college that doesn't inherently mean their professional careers will go the same way. Still, I think this is emblematic of Hill's upside and a source of the hype and how it has some merit to it. LaMichael James is the first name that pops in my head but I'm sure there are many more and much more comparable guys that fit this similar ultra athletic, smaller/low BMI RB profile even ones with significant draft capital like LaMichael James who didn't do much of anything in the pros and if you listed all the guys that fits this profile Jamaal Charles and Reggie Bush would be 2 of the best pros on the list (so using them is a bit biased when the comparison is strictly on physical and athletic level and a lot more guys have fit that profile over the years.). 

 

Lamichael James has a 65th percentile burst score. Kamara has a 95th percentile burst score and a 28th percentile agility score. If high burst score = human joystick...justice hill is also 95th percentile burst score. He’s also stronger than kamara. 21 bench reps vs 15. He also squats 565lbs+.

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2 hours ago, machine3 said:

I wouldnt read too much into this. He had 31 rec as a SO, but only 13 as a JR. I'm sure he didn't forget how to catch. 

I think he was hurt is down year for catches. 

He played a significant roll his freshman year when he was only 18. Being effective at such a young age is often a predictor of success later on. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ellie826 said:

 

Lamichael James has a 65th percentile burst score. Kamara has a 95th percentile burst score and a 28th percentile agility score. If high burst score = human joystick...justice hill is also 95th percentile burst score. He’s also stronger than kamara. 21 bench reps vs 15. He also squats 565lbs+.

 

I admitted LaMichael James wasn't a great comp it was more so to just prove a general point. I don't think anyone is questioning Justice Hill's athletic ability which is all burst score is a measure of (specifically I think their vertical and broad jump), he is undoubtedly a special athlete even by NFL standards. This gives him a very high upside and nobody thought Kamara would be half the player he turned out to be his rookie year but that's an awfully high standard to reach.

Bench and squat numbers while measures of strength don't really mirror anything RBs do on a consistent basis. His burst score which shows a level of explosiveness sound more relevant than his squat or bench press numbers. That being said there are plenty of tremendous athletes buried on depth charts (high burst score might equal human joystick but human joystick doesn't necessarily equal a great NFL RB although its clearly not a bad attribute to have). 

The biggest difference between Hill and Kamara that makes it tough to see Hill being as good of an NFL player is his BMI. Because of his quickness, explosiveness and speed many people think Kamara is a lot smaller than he actually is at like 5ft 10in and 215lbs. He has a BMI (height weight ratio that's typically used as a proxy to estimate a RBs durability) higher than guys like Zeke, Marshawn Lynch, Gurley and at least imo a lot of people think of Kamara as more of a scatback that isn't big enough to be a 3 down workhorse and hold up under that workload. Justice Hill is that scatback sized guy with a 14th percentile BMI (Kamara is 60%). This isn't an indictment that he can't be a very good football player but it does raise legitimate red flags about his ability to handle 15+ carries and hold up over the course of the season. Luckily given his speed and explosiveness Hill doesn't need a ton of carries in order to return substantial fantasy value especially at his price tag but even if he is a better athlete than Kamara its much more difficult to imagine him becoming a RB1 like Kamara because he'll have to have freakishly high efficiency (like Kamara did in year 1) since he isn't likely to be able to sustain a heavy workload. 

 

Edited by Jaw1

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am i reading that chart wrong or does Hill have like...no agility? I feel like agility would be very important for a RB. What's up with that part of the chart?

 

Also...my BIGGEST issue with that chart is that JC is wearing a damn Denver jersey. SACRILEGE! I know he finished as a Bronco but that should be a damn KC jersey at this point. 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, yossarian said:

am i reading that chart wrong or does Hill have like...no agility? I feel like agility would be very important for a RB. What's up with that part of the chart?

 

Also...my BIGGEST issue with that chart is that JC is wearing a damn Denver jersey. SACRILEGE! I know he finished as a Bronco but that should be a damn KC jersey at this point. 

 

Incomplete data, I'd assume Hill may not have taken place in the combine drills they use to derive that metric. Those numbers shouldn't be taken as gospel just as a rough barometer that allows you to compare the relative athletic profile of different players. I think its helpful in finding breakout candidates (like it has helped put guys like George Kittle who I didn't know about coming out of college on to my radar) since generally the more athletic a player is the higher their "upside". Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule, athleticism is only 1 aspect of football and particularly at a position like TE (historically, things have been changing over past few years as NFL has gone pass happy and athletic, primarily receiving TEs have flourished) having an elite 40 time (or another athletic measurement) isn't that valuable especially if the player lacks some of the more vital aspects of being a TE like being a blocker which prohibits them from even seeing the field (like Mike Gesiciki in Miami). With RBs athleticism seems to be a bit dependent on the system and even then isn't the end all and be all. Arian Foster being a contemporary example of a guy who tested extremely poorly athletically becoming a great RB. Obviously, speed is typically never a bad thing (unless you use it in the wrong way or try to bump runs outside or go for the homerun all the time) to have. 

 

EDIT: Not sure why but it looks like he didn't participate in 3 cone drill, or 20 or 60 yard shuttle drills. 

Edited by Jaw1

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