doomz

Kristaps Porzingis 2019-2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

After a long year and half of recovery, KP is finally ready to step back on the court and join Doncic in a scary euro tandem in Dallas.

Kristaps has been relentlessly working on his body, and it clearly looks he's bulked up and ready to go. On the other hand, hard to ignore his injury history, especially for a 7 footer that heavily relies on mobility.

What are your expectations for the upcoming season?

Edited by doomz

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The potential here is definitely there, the last time he played he averaged:

22.7/6.6/1.2 w/2.4 blocks and 1.9 3s a game on .439% shooting

 

There's weaknesses even at his best, he doesn't rebound and fg is always low. The blocks, 3s, high ft, and scoring is there and there's an argument having a real PG and better coach could improve FG. I'm confident he'll return to form.

My expectation is 20/6/1 w/ 2 blocks and 2 3s a game on .450% shooting

 

 

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Rich man’s brook lopez (~2 blocks / ~2 threes) with slightly more boards who gets to the line and drops 20

Would be nice to see how he performs in a well established system

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I think everything will stay somewhat similar except a drop in blocks due to him not having the leg strength he used to (I'm assuming).

Fg% 43

Ft% 78

22 pts

6 rbs

2 ast

2.7 3s

.5 steals 

1.4 blocks

2.2 to 

 

So I would guess an uptick in 3s from doncic setting him up, and a decrease in fg% and blocks. The decrease in blocks and already bad fg%, uncertainty and injury/rest prone pushes me to maybe pass on him this year unless he drops to the 4th round.

They say hes getting bigger too which may also hurt his vertical, his blocks, and his shooting stroke. That could help his legit (real not fantasy) defense, and increase his finishing at the rim. My guess is he packed on the muscle because he can't jump anymore but not sure. Don't really get why a big would coming off injury would want to GAIN weight, when the general trend is lose weight to keep the previously injured legs healthy. Cousins for example. 

Just like Gordon Hayward I will try to see his much hop he has in his step now, and make my judgement after consideration.

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14 hours ago, Gorgeous George said:

Minutes restriction?

 

I wonder this too.  I think the load management is slightly overblown.  He could've played last year, so I would have to think he's completely healthy.  

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My problem is that I think he’s a little overrated irl.  He’s only ever finished 19th and 34th but I think the general consensus is that he has first round potential.  Everyone knows the potential but they’re downgrading him to second round due to risk.  In reality I don’t even know if he’s a second round player even if healthy.  His FG and Rebs are pretty bad for a big, the attraction to him are blocks on a high volume guy and good FT% for a big.  He’s a good target for punt FG%.  But if you compare him to someone like Capela, who everyone is downgrading to the third, idk if you can support an argument for second round value for Kristaps.  Capela’s FG is more valuable than his FT% is harmful but idk if you can say the reverse for Kristaps.  Having your first big with FG% under 45% means you’re probably not winning that cat, hard to make it up later too.  Whereas, his FT% isn’t good enough or on enough volume to be as much of an anchor as Capela’s FG is.  Then I am not sure Kristaps will hit 2 blocks and if you consider that Capela has improved in blocks every year I’d guess he wins there.  Capela wins rebounds too.  So if you’re looking at that sort of comp idk how he’s a top 20 player even in the best case. Then you factor in risk, particularly H2H, particularly if Dallas is eliminated early...i would probably prefer the Ayton, Aldridge, Turner, Capela, Siakam tier.  If he fell to the fourth I’d pick him though.

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

My problem is that I think he’s a little overrated irl.  He’s only ever finished 19th and 34th but I think the general consensus is that he has first round potential.  Everyone knows the potential but they’re downgrading him to second round due to risk.  In reality I don’t even know if he’s a second round player even if healthy.  His FG and Rebs are pretty bad for a big, the attraction to him are blocks on a high volume guy and good FT% for a big.  He’s a good target for punt FG%.  But if you compare him to someone like Capela, who everyone is downgrading to the third, idk if you can support an argument for second round value for Kristaps.  Capela’s FG is more valuable than his FT% is harmful but idk if you can say the reverse for Kristaps.  Having your first big with FG% under 45% means you’re probably not winning that cat, hard to make it up later too.  Whereas, his FT% isn’t good enough or on enough volume to be as much of an anchor as Capela’s FG is.  Then I am not sure Kristaps will hit 2 blocks and if you consider that Capela has improved in blocks every year I’d guess he wins there.  Capela wins rebounds too.  So if you’re looking at that sort of comp idk how he’s a top 20 player even in the best case. Then you factor in risk, particularly H2H, particularly if Dallas is eliminated early...i would probably prefer the Ayton, Aldridge, Turner, Capela, Siakam tier.  If he fell to the fourth I’d pick him though.

I’ve always thought he’s over rated irl. He’s an exciting player for sure but something about a 7ft3 guy who can’t play C, can’t defend PFs and can’t rebound has always led to me thinking he’s overrated. He’s one of the most talented young players in this league but given his deficiencys and his height I think his body will struggle to make it through full seasons. Personally I dont see him as a big needle mover in terms of winning games.

In terms of Fantasy, I couldn’t touch him as he returns from an ACL tear at his height. I don’t have any doubts that he will regain his athleticism but I do believe the Mavs will be a bottom 5 team in the west and will likely be very cautious with him. This Euro pairing of Doncic and KP is a long term play and Dallas has been a very cautious franchise during the Carlisle era. I dont believe hes a 2nd rounder either, although someone could argue he was a 2nd rounder before his ACL tear. The issue with that argument is he’s sharing the floor with Doncic, and it was always evident his body could not handle that type of workload.

He simply wont fall far enough for me to take that risk.

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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4 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

 Then I am not sure Kristaps will hit 2 blocks and if you consider that Capela has improved in blocks every year I’d guess he wins there. 

 

Capela's blocks peaked at 1.9 two years ago, then went down to 1.5 last year.  

 

What do you think about Russ stealing rebounds from Capela?  Maybe he drops from 12 to 9 or 10...

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I think he has second round upside but didn’t think anyone was touching him before pick 30. I’d probably target him in 3rd or 4th depending on where I’m picking and what my first two picks look like.  Having said that I do rate him above Myles though who doesn’t rebound enough for a C and his top 25 pick status seems highly dependent on 2+ blocks and decent Fg for a C.

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1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Capela's blocks peaked at 1.9 two years ago, then went down to 1.5 last year.  

 

What do you think about Russ stealing rebounds from Capela?  Maybe he drops from 12 to 9 or 10...

Good point. Capela's rebounds are about to go down the same way that Steven Adams' are about to go up. 

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Posted (edited)

Not sure anyones reaching in the 2nd for him as the ACL tear + year and a half layover have made most people wary or forget what he can do

To put things in perspective, he put up those numbers with Courtney Lee, THJ, Kanter and Jarrett Jack; having real talent and a good system make it likely that he has a significant increase in fg% IMO - 46% is doable, which is also made easier to stomach if you consider he can absolutely bomb from three (greater than or equal to two 3PM)

I like him more than that Ayton, Aldridge, Myles, Siakam tier but he definitely carries more risk than all of those guys. Gun to the head, I would pick him if I managed to draft a steady big (KAT, AD, Jok, Vuc) in the first two rounds

Edited by Mikhov

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4 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Capela's blocks peaked at 1.9 two years ago, then went down to 1.5 last year.  

 

What do you think about Russ stealing rebounds from Capela?  Maybe he drops from 12 to 9 or 10...

The notion that Westbrook "steals" rebounds is a joke perpetuated by a few clips people have seen involving miscommunication between him and his teammates.  Similar to the "Harden no defense" videos, they have a basis in truth but are exaggerated so far beyond reality that it becomes a joke.  The reality is that everyone, from the high school level on, knows that if the point guard has access to a defensive rebound then he should get it so he can initiate offense.  And Westbrook is a good rebounder for a guard so that's going to happen often.  But if Westbrook doesn't have access then obviously you get the rebound.  Sure, there are a few hilarious clips in which Westbrook "fights" a teammate for a rebound, or the big gets out of the way.  But it might result in like one fewer rebound per game for Capela, not to mention the "Westbrook effect" has no impact on offensive rebounds.

 

Also, Capela got 1.5 blocks last year, but you didn't filter for his injury.  He was getting 2 blocks prior to his injury.

 

I don't think he will be better than last year and I think he's capped around 11 rebs, 2 blocks but I don't think he will be much worse either.

 

His best cat is FG% and he was the league leader in that cat.  I don't think that will decline. 

 

16/11; 2 blocks/.8 steals; 65 FG%/65 FT%; sub 1.5 TO.  25th in 9 cat.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mikhov said:

Not sure anyones reaching in the 2nd for him as the ACL tear + year and a half layover have made most people wary or forget what he can do

To put things in perspective, he put up those numbers with Courtney Lee, THJ, Kanter and Jarrett Jack; having real talent and a good system make it likely that he has a significant increase in fg% IMO - 46% is doable, which is also made easier to stomach if you consider he can absolutely bomb from three (greater than or equal to two 3PM)

I like him more than that Ayton, Aldridge, Myles, Siakam tier but he definitely carries more risk than all of those guys. Gun to the head, I would pick him if I managed to draft a steady big (KAT, AD, Jok, Vuc) in the first two rounds

Maybe not literally second round but he was drafted 27th and 29th in our mocks which is 10 spots too early imo.  His FG% may go up (that's an assumption I'm not willing to make) but will likely be negated by his decreased volume with Luka in tow.  And you have to figure he will be rusty so I'd wager top 20 in per game is out of the question given that he finished 19th in his best year, and now he will have lower volume.  It's possible he finishes around his adp in per game, but misses it in totals.  Ofc in totals he will take plenty of precautionary rest and I don't he will finish top 40 in totals. Not to mention in H2H if Dallas is mathematically eliminated with a 30-40 record or something like that then I'd bet he will have rest days.  Risky Indeed.  To put it in perspective I'd much rather have Siakam, just a random example, even though I don't think he will finish top 25 in per game.  Kristaps could finish ahead of a lot of players in per game and still fail to reach adp in totals.  I'll say it bluntly: I don't Kristaps will average over 2 games per week during the fantasy playoffs.  

Edited by StifleTower2

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I'm happy to not reach on KP this year. My main concern is all between the ears. He has never been a very physical player and he's had to deal with some pretty big accusations. At a decent risk of becoming a 'never been the same since the injury' player.

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

The notion that Westbrook "steals" rebounds is a joke perpetuated by a few clips people have seen involving miscommunication between him and his teammates.  Similar to the "Harden no defense" videos, they have a basis in truth but are exaggerated so far beyond reality that it becomes a joke.  The reality is that everyone, from the high school level on, knows that if the point guard has access to a defensive rebound then he should get it so he can initiate offense.  And Westbrook is a good rebounder for a guard so that's going to happen often.  But if Westbrook doesn't have access then obviously you get the rebound.  Sure, there are a few hilarious clips in which Westbrook "fights" a teammate for a rebound, or the big gets out of the way.  But it might result in like one fewer rebound per game for Capela, not to mention the "Westbrook effect" has no impact on offensive rebounds.

 

Also, Capela got 1.5 blocks last year, but you didn't filter for his injury.  He was getting 2 blocks prior to his injury.

 

I don't think he will be better than last year and I think he's capped around 11 rebs, 2 blocks but I don't think he will be much worse either.

 

His best cat is FG% and he was the league leader in that cat.  I don't think that will decline. 

 

16/11; 2 blocks/.8 steals; 65 FG%/65 FT%; sub 1.5 TO.  25th in 9 cat.

 

Ok I didn't mean "stealing" as in snatching rebounds out of Adam's / Capela's hands, but rather in total boards, adding a high rebounding guard takes 10 rebounds away from everyone else.  Adams is an excellent player at boxing out, which also allowed Russ to get so many boards.  Similarly in SA, Aldridge does a lot of boxing out and lets Gay/Murray/whoever else to come in and swipe rebounds.  Maybe it doesn't affect Capela at all.  I am going to say 16 / 9 / 1.5 blocks, not a far cry.  In H2H I am not sure Capela's high FG is worth the pick at then end of the 2nd / early 3rd if he's averaging under 2 blocks and under 10 boards.  I feel like I can wait til the mid rounds and get someone similar - a high FG low FT/TO big who can get close to 10 boards 1.5 blocks.  Not as good as Capela, but similar.  Depending who's on the board I can see myself passing on him...if there's no one that fits that I like I would probably shoot for Capela.  

 

The "westbrook" effect might actually mean more offensive rebounds lol.       

Edited by hipriest69

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2 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Ok I didn't mean "stealing" as in snatching rebounds out of Adam's / Capela's hands, but rather in total boards, adding a high rebounding guard takes 10 rebounds away from everyone else.  Adams is an excellent player at boxing out, which also allowed Russ to get so many boards.  Similarly in SA, Aldridge does a lot of boxing out and lets Gay/Murray/whoever else to come in and swipe rebounds.  Maybe it doesn't affect Capela at all.  I am going to say 16 / 9 / 1.5 blocks, not a far cry.  In H2H I am not sure Capela's high FG is worth the pick at then end of the 2nd / early 3rd if he's averaging under 2 blocks and under 10 boards.  I feel like I can wait til the mid rounds and get someone similar - a high FG low FT/TO big who can get close to 10 boards 1.5 blocks.  Not as good as Capela, but similar.  Depending who's on the board I can see myself passing on him...if there's no one that fits that I like I would probably shoot for Capela.  

 

The "westbrook" effect might actually mean more offensive rebounds lol.       

 I’m saying that when Westbrook is added to a team he doesn’t take away rebounds from the team, he adds to the total team rebounds.    Their total as a team goes up.  There’s not some finite number of boards a team gets, it’s a property that can move up.  I really really doubt Capela will get under 10 boards...really strongly doubt.  Seriously.  

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3 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

 I’m saying that when Westbrook is added to a team he doesn’t take away rebounds from the team, he adds to the total team rebounds.    Their total as a team goes up.  There’s not some finite number of boards a team gets, it’s a property that can move up.  I really really doubt Capela will get under 10 boards...really strongly doubt.  Seriously.  

 

Ah I knew there was some kind of logic I didn't quite grasp at the moment.  So what about when he leaves a team?  You don't think Adams rebounds will rise? 

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4 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Ah I knew there was some kind of logic I didn't quite grasp at the moment.  So what about when he leaves a team?  You don't think Adams rebounds will rise? 

The problem is that I’ve never seen any data on this issue, I’ve only heard assumptions.  People on these forums and irl love to tell stories but they rarely think mathematically.  It seems like a plausible story but idk.  

 

Getting 12 rpg is elite whereas 9 is pedestrian for a big.  There’s a discernible difference.  I don’t think Adams will get over 12 nor Capela will fall under 10. They both could get 10-11.  

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18 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Maybe not literally second round but he was drafted 27th and 29th in our mocks which is 10 spots too early imo.  His FG% may go up (that's an assumption I'm not willing to make) but will likely be negated by his decreased volume with Luka in tow.  And you have to figure he will be rusty so I'd wager top 20 in per game is out of the question given that he finished 19th in his best year, and now he will have lower volume.  It's possible he finishes around his adp in per game, but misses it in totals.  Ofc in totals he will take plenty of precautionary rest and I don't he will finish top 40 in totals. Not to mention in H2H if Dallas is mathematically eliminated with a 30-40 record or something like that then I'd bet he will have rest days.  Risky Indeed.  To put it in perspective I'd much rather have Siakam, just a random example, even though I don't think he will finish top 25 in per game.  Kristaps could finish ahead of a lot of players in per game and still fail to reach adp in totals.  I'll say it bluntly: I don't Kristaps will average over 2 games per week during the fantasy playoffs.  

 

I think we’re both in agreement that reaching is dangerous, but he should be a must pick in the late 3rd / 4th

Personally, I would rather buy low after the draft, but anyone investing early won’t sell at a price that takes the team’s situation in the second half of the season into consideration.

Those two games that late into the season vs backups could very well be 40+ points, 16 rebounds, 6+ threes and 6+ blocks with volume free throws though, and the threes alone will give you an advantage vs team with bigs who dont shoot like Capela, Gobert and even AD while the blocks can cover you for one of those guys

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Seems like he worked hard to get stronger which should be a positive in him staying healthy.

For me tho, he obviously has load management written all over him. I am going trying to stay away from the load management guys so unless he fell to the 5th round which I don’t see happening, I am staying away.

But the one other positive thing I can say is I have to believe that he worked on improving his shot too. This Dallas team will be better than the Knicks he was apart of so just for that reason alone I think his FG% should improve.

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1 hour ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

Seems like he worked hard to get stronger which should be a positive in him staying healthy.

For me tho, he obviously has load management written all over him. I am going trying to stay away from the load management guys so unless he fell to the 5th round which I don’t see happening, I am staying away.

But the one other positive thing I can say is I have to believe that he worked on improving his shot too. This Dallas team will be better than the Knicks he was apart of so just for that reason alone I think his FG% should improve.

Wow l I didn't realize he got THAT ripped. I figure there would be some extra fat with muscle gain, but he looks scary as hell. Really want to see if he can jump still... if he can't I wouldn't be too eager with him unless you get a deal in an early draft. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

Wow l I didn't realize he got THAT ripped. I figure there would be some extra fat with muscle gain, but he looks scary as hell. Really want to see if he can jump still... if he can't I wouldn't be too eager with him unless you get a deal in an early draft. 

Why wouldn't he be able to jump? His workout plan was recovery and to be stronger than before. Mission accomplished.

Edited by Spyplane

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