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Kristaps Porzingis 2019-2020 Outlook

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I have a different take on KP and I am far higher on him than most in this thread. He isn't or shouldn't be on a DND or punt team. Saying he is on one of those is lacking any creativity and open mindedness to assemble a roster during a draft, IMO. The thing most are overlooking is that KP is a dynamic block source. He isn't a specialist. He provides you a great wing stat line with elite blocks. Seems like everyone is so conditioned to have their bigs fit a mold that they can't adjust to a big that gets you FT%, 3's, blocks, and scoring. Compensate his weakness later in the draft. It isn't like you are compensating for a 58% heavy volume FT shooter. FG% compensation is done quite often.

Also, playing with Luka is going to be great for him and that is their duo moving forward. The focus will be on those 2 developing chemistry. KP played with trash in NY. His looks and responsibilities will be much more favorable in Dallas. 

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31 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I have a different take on KP and I am far higher on him than most in this thread. He isn't or shouldn't be on a DND or punt team. Saying he is on one of those is lacking any creativity and open mindedness to assemble a roster during a draft, IMO. The thing most are overlooking is that KP is a dynamic block source. He isn't a specialist. He provides you a great wing stat line with elite blocks. Seems like everyone is so conditioned to have their bigs fit a mold that they can't adjust to a big that gets you FT%, 3's, blocks, and scoring. Compensate his weakness later in the draft. It isn't like you are compensating for a 58% heavy volume FT shooter. FG% compensation is done quite often.

Also, playing with Luka is going to be great for him and that is their duo moving forward. The focus will be on those 2 developing chemistry. KP played with trash in NY. His looks and responsibilities will be much more favorable in Dallas. 

If you pick a big in the third round who shoots sub 45% on around 8/18 volume then you're not going to have good FG most of the time.  I guess if you picked Giannis in the first round and someone with decent FG in the third round, then it's possible.  But you will be unbalanced in some other way.  If you think it's trivial then please construct a team in BBM using the team analysis tool whose starting five averages over 48% from the field with the following constraints: 1) You have to follow players ADP and use someone from the first, second, third, fourth, fifth rounds.  No funny business; 2) You have to select, a PG, SG, SF, PF, C; 3) You have to use your third round pick on Kristaps.    

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

If you pick a big in the third round who shoots sub 45% on around 8/18 volume then you're not going to have good FG most of the time.  I guess if you picked Giannis in the first round and someone with decent FG in the third round, then it's possible.  But you will be unbalanced in some other way.  If you think it's trivial then please construct a team in BBM using the team analysis tool whose starting five averages over 48% from the field with the following constraints: 1) You have to follow players ADP and use someone from the first, second, third, fourth, fifth rounds.  No funny business; 2) You have to select, a PG, SG, SF, PF, C; 3) You have to use your third round pick on Kristaps.    

Again I don't know, maybe you are talking about Roto, but in H2H nothing happens if your FG% is 47 instead of 48. If you have luck, team 47 can even have the same number of wins in FG% category as team 48. But if everything is going normal way then team 48 get 3-4 wins more than team 47 in this cat. That means you don't lose much but you can maybe gain these wins in other cats. Just my opinion is that in H2H it is not must to have 48% FG.

Edited by apatas

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I m a big fan of him in real life. but not easy to pick him. I would pick Sabonis earlier than him.

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31 minutes ago, apatas said:

Again I don't know, maybe you are talking about Roto, but in H2H nothing happens if your FG% is 47 instead of 48. If you have luck, team 47 can even have the same number of wins in FG% category as team 48. But if everything is going normal way then team 48 get 3-4 wins more than team 47 in this cat. That means you don't lose much but you can maybe gain these wins in other cats. Just my opinion is that in H2H it is not must to have 48% FG.

You might be correct in H2H, but I think with Kristaps it will be difficult to even get your FG% to 47%.  If you draft two guards who go 8/18 and Krtistaps goes 8/18 then that's 24/54.  Even if you add a 7/11 guy such as Capela, who led the league in positive FG% impact, then your total is 31/65.  That's 47.6% but it doesn't take into account that you've already drafted two bigs and your FG% is likely to go down from there.  That also includes drafting the big with the most positive FG% impact.  I'm not allergic to Kristaps it's just annoying when people say I'll pick so and so...oh but I won't punt...I never punt...and they don't realize or don't care that if they pick that player so early then their realistic ceiling in FG is still below median.  Oh, but they won't punt. 

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43 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

You might be correct in H2H, but I think with Kristaps it will be difficult to even get your FG% to 47%.  If you draft two guards who go 8/18 and Krtistaps goes 8/18 then that's 24/54.  Even if you add a 7/11 guy such as Capela, who led the league in positive FG% impact, then your total is 31/65.  That's 47.6% but it doesn't take into account that you've already drafted two bigs and your FG% is likely to go down from there.  That also includes drafting the big with the most positive FG% impact.  I'm not allergic to Kristaps it's just annoying when people say I'll pick so and so...oh but I won't punt...I never punt...and they don't realize or don't care that if they pick that player so early then their realistic ceiling in FG is still below median.  Oh, but they won't punt. 

 

Well I suppose it might be like taking one of those punt FT players early - do you punt or try to even it out?  It can applied to any category...and I feel is like the big dilemma in drafts after a few rounds - do I hard punt, medium punt, soft punt?  Even if you have Drummond early, there are other teams that are tanking FT with players like Adams, Simmons, Westbrook, etc., so I feel like I can take him and still build a decent team that is bottom 3rd in FT but not last.  Now in roto it becomes even more complex in that you're stuck with that cumulative negative impact...

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10 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Well I suppose it might be like taking one of those punt FT players early - do you punt or try to even it out?  It can applied to any category...and I feel is like the big dilemma in drafts after a few rounds - do I hard punt, medium punt, soft punt?  Even if you have Drummond early, there are other teams that are tanking FT with players like Adams, Simmons, Westbrook, etc., so I feel like I can take him and still build a decent team that is bottom 3rd in FT but not last.  Now in roto it becomes even more complex in that you're stuck with that cumulative negative impact...

I would say medium punt with Kristaps.  There are scenarios where you could come up with semi-decent FG%.  Eg if you picked Giannis in the first round who shoots on such a high volume.  There are other players available later such as Bam, Bryant, Kanter, Favors, etc.  But I don’t think there are many scenarios in which you’re going to finish over 5 points in roto with him as your first big, selected in the third.  Most of the time I wouldn’t go out of my way to try.  If I drafted him I would just turn off the FG filter, but I wouldn’t deliberately do anything to tank it either, which is what some people think punting is.  It doesn’t mean that to me. It simply means I turn off that filter.  

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Thoughts on the latest blurb saying he could miss 15-20 games for load management this year? Seems excessive.

 

Tim Cato of The Athletic said he's been told that Kristaps Porzingis could miss anywhere from 15-20 games for load management.

The Mavs haven't been very transparent yet, and coach Rick Carlisle said there's no specific plan in place for load management. It is widely known that the Mavs will "err on the side of caution," and Carlisle did mention that he'll be especially careful in early back-to-back sets. Cato did add that the Mavs could remove some of his restrictions if he exceeds expectations from a physical standpoint, but this is another reason why we're fading Porzingis in the first few rounds.

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I'm sure they have 10-15 B2B sets, that seems to be the go-to starting point for estimating the number of games rested. You now have guys taking a game or 2 around the all-star break because apparently 1 week off isn't enough in the sports science age, so some teams shoot for a 1.5-2 week break there. The Mavs basically shut down Luka last year, he played 2 games in the last 2 weeks. That gets you up to 20 games if they take similar precautions with KP3 coming off a serious injury vs a thigh bruise for Luka. 

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47 minutes ago, BMart519 said:

I'm sure they have 10-15 B2B sets, that seems to be the go-to starting point for estimating the number of games rested. You now have guys taking a game or 2 around the all-star break because apparently 1 week off isn't enough in the sports science age, so some teams shoot for a 1.5-2 week break there. The Mavs basically shut down Luka last year, he played 2 games in the last 2 weeks. That gets you up to 20 games if they take similar precautions with KP3 coming off a serious injury vs a thigh bruise for Luka. 

 

Valid points all around. Looks like they have 13 B2B's this year.

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/mavericks/2019/08/12/analyzing-mavericks-2019-20-schedule-vastly-increased-national-tv-exposure-fewer-back-to-backs/

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The load management nonsense is really bothering me, may be time to switch it over to roto for good. If not for this, he's a must in any punt FG% build.

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I think to put him on DND list (though I said it is only fictional - it means you don't draft him at TOP40 or maybe 50, but later anyway you pick him if he is available) is too early because soon some other players under load management will be announced and then you have almost half of the studs at this list.

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I got him at the tail end of the 4th round (pick 47). The bigs that were still available were KLove, Adebayo, Valanciunas, Bryant. Im a bit apprehensive about the load management and maybe I should have just let the other owners deal with him. I was thinking there was already value at that point of the draft. 

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Having a good night tonight. 18 pts, 7 rebs

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this guy is the definition of high risk-high reward 

 

i took the risk and drafted him 32nd overall .. didn’t see the news about potentially not playing back to backs, but i’m all in. 

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Pour some zingis on me! Oooooh in the name of love.

Pour some zingis on me! Come on, fire me up!

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Better suited for roto leagues then H2H simply because of the resting back to backs, but there is no doubt that when he's on the floor he will produce. The FG is annoying but remember he did that on the knicks and never had legitimate players to get him the ball he often had to create his own shots or chuck up 3s.

I don't think his FG will fly up because of his tendency to chuck 3s but I think .465% is possible.

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Looks like he should've taken another season getting his shooting stroke back ( or any bit he once had ). Jesus Christ all mighty.

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