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hipriest69

Player A vs Player B Comps

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Posted (edited)

Let's do a fun little Player A / Player B comparison.  I like these because you take the name out and are going purely on production.  Usually one player is highly regarded and drafted earlier, while the other player is less highly regarded and drafted later.  I think this helps us uncover hidden value, as well as comparable value if you plan on drafting Player A but miss out, you might be able to get Player B much later, with very similar production.  

 

Here's the first one I'll throw out.     

Who would you prefer?  

 

Player A   5.3/11.5
.465
1.4/1.7
.813
1.9
5.6
2.1
1.5
0.6
1.2
13.9
Player B   6.9/14.2
.486
2.3/2.9
.815
1.8
4.0
1.5
1.2
0.7
1.2
18.0

 

In all likelihood you'd take Player A, because of the slightly higher rebounds, assists, and steals.  If you take Player A, you'd probably have to take him about 3-5 rounds earlier than Player B.  

Player B also gives you more points and higher FG.  

 

 

Player A is...Otto Porter (probably going around the 4th round if I had to guess)

Player B is...TJ Warren (probably going around the 7th-10th round)

Edited by hipriest69

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I would haven taken player B lol.  That’s a trick question because one is durable and the other is broken.  If you’d told me the over/under for player B is 50 games I’d pick A. 

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50 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I would haven taken player B lol.  That’s a trick question because one is durable and the other is broken.  If you’d told me the over/under for player B is 50 games I’d pick A. 

 

Haha ok you got me.  Injuries are definitely the main factor holding TJ back and the reason he's drafted later.  But he's gotta be good for more than 65 games at some point, right? 

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24 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Haha ok you got me.  Injuries are definitely the main factor holding TJ back and the reason he's drafted later.  But he's gotta be good for more than 65 games at some point, right? 

I’d draft him at cost which is likely around $5 in auction and just roll the dice.  I don’t care if I waste $5.  But he’s not a massive sleeper or anything.  Everyone knows he has top 50 upside but if he doesn’t play it’s irrelevant.  I’d also be concerned about how good he is irl.  Worse defender than Porter and much much worse offensively than Gallo.  I’d be concerned he’s just another guy on a good team. 

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I’d draft him at cost which is likely around $5 in auction and just roll the dice.  I don’t care if I waste $5.  But he’s not a massive sleeper or anything.  Everyone knows he has top 50 upside but if he doesn’t play it’s irrelevant.  I’d also be concerned about how good he is irl.  Worse defender than Porter and much much worse offensively than Gallo.  I’d be concerned he’s just another guy on a good team. 

 

I feel like he is always somewhat underrated but that could just be me.  "I’d be concerned he’s just another guy on a good team" is exactly the reason why he's underrated even when healthy.  He was just another wing on the Suns.  Now he's just another guy on the Pacers.  I dunno what other people's perception is of him, but that's what comes to mind.  

 

I'm not concerned with his role on the Pacers, although its an unknown, I'm going to think they need scoring with no Bojan, Dipo, and Collison.  Enter Lamb, Brogdon, and Warren.  I'd bet out of the 3, in fact out of the entire team he scores the most (although it will probably be very evenly distributed, all 5 starters in the mid teens, no one in the 20s).  His midrange game is elite and he just shot an incredible 42.8% from 3, and his FT jumped 6% to 81%.  You could argue it was an outlier / anomaly, and its possible he never gets that high again in either cat, but I'm going to say it's a permanent fixture to his game, as it came on over 4 attempts, and he has elite touch on runners and midrange, and its possible that touch has finally transferred to 3 and FT.  I think he will always have a role, even if he isn't starting he can come off the bench and play 24-28 and maintain top 100 value.  I would take both Porter and Gallo ahead of TJ, he is worse in those aspects as you said, but worse does not equal bad.  I should've just made this the TJ Warren thread lol.  

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Posted (edited)

There is concern for regression across the board and no one knows how his role will ultimately shake out.  For TJ I'm going to roughly guess more of the same.

 

17 points

1.5 threes

4.5 reb

1.2 stl

0.7 blk

1 TO

50% FG

80% FT

65 games played (which for him should be considered a FULL SEASON)

Edited by hipriest69

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Posted (edited)

Player A: 

Points Per Game: 25.6

Field Goal Percentage: 47.5%

Free Throw Percentage: 80.8% 

Rebounds Per Game: 5

Assist Per Game: 5.5

Blocks Per Game: 0.7

Steals Per Game:1.5

Turnovers Per Game: 2.7

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Player B: 

Points Per Game: 26.6

Field Goal Percentage: 46.7%

Free Throw Percentage: 86.6% 

Rebounds Per Game: 4

Assist Per Game: 6.8

Blocks Per Game: 0.2

Steals Per Game: 0.9

Turnovers Per Game: 4.1

 

Both are probably going to get picked at the snake end. Both are on bad teams; usages should be bonkers. Decisions decisions...

 

Edited by Trench Mob
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43 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

Player A: 

Points Per Game: 25.6

Field Goal Percentage: 47.5%

Free Throw Percentage: 80.8% 

Rebounds Per Game: 5

Assist Per Game: 5.5

Blocks Per Game: 0.7

Steals Per Game:1.5

Turnovers Per Game: 2.7

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Player B: 

Points Per Game: 26.6

Field Goal Percentage: 46.7%

Free Throw Percentage: 86.6% 

Rebounds Per Game: 4

Assist Per Game: 6.8

Blocks Per Game: 0.2

Steals Per Game: 0.9

Turnovers Per Game: 4.1

 

Both are probably going to get picked at the snake end. Both are on bad teams; usages should be bonkers. Decisions decisions...

 

Unfortunately, I already know to whom you refer as I’m too familiar with their stat profile. Even if I didn’t know, player A is clearly better using a standard deviation model because stocks really are that valuable, not to mention  lower TO.  In reality, player B will be overdrafted because people like to punt TO, and have a hard time seeing how valuable stocks are.  

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I think it'd be fair to compare Porter's Chicago tenure to TJ

Porter: 17.5 Pts 2.6 3's 5.5 Rebs 2.7 Ast 1.2 Sts 0.6 Blks 1.7 TO's 48.3 FG% 90.6 FT% 

Warren: 18.0 Pts 1.8 3's 4.0 Rebs 1.5 Ast 1.2 Stls 0.7 Blks 1.2 TO's 48.6 FG% 81.5 FT%

The only unsustainable thing about Porter's line is the FT% due to the small sample size. 

 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Unfortunately, I already know to whom you refer as I’m too familiar with their stat profile. Even if I didn’t know, player A is clearly better using a standard deviation model because stocks really are that valuable, not to mention  lower TO.  In reality, player B will be overdrafted because people like to punt TO, and have a hard time seeing how valuable stocks are.  

 

Whose to say Player A's steal numbers won't drop by .3 to .5? Stocks are delicate. That would knock him down a few spots. His turnovers may go up also because of the burden. The team looking even worse than last year. Player B is more capable of delivering those explosive games which can single-handily win your H2H week matchup ( I don't play H2H, I meant in general ). But in the same token, Player B's assist numbers will most likely drop because of a new addition to the team, which will also knock him down a few spots. I don't think Player B has peaked yet. More potential than Player A.

 

Logical pick is obviously Player A, yup. The favoritism / fan pick is Player B.

 

Edited by Trench Mob
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I got another good one. A sneaky and deceptive one.

 

Player A: 

Points Per Game: 16.9

Field Goal Percentage: 54.9%

Free Throw Percentage: 78.5% 

Rebounds Per Game: 6.9

Assist Per Game: 3.1

Blocks Per Game: 0.7

Steals Per Game: 0.9

Turnovers Per Game: 1.9

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Player B: 

Points Per Game: 7.4

Field Goal Percentage: 44.5%

Free Throw Percentage: 69.2% 

Rebounds Per Game: 7.3

Assist Per Game: 6.9

Blocks Per Game: 1.1

Steals Per Game: 1.4

Turnovers Per Game: 2.6

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

I got another good one. A sneaky and deceptive one.

 

Player A: 

Points Per Game: 16.9

Field Goal Percentage: 54.9%

Free Throw Percentage: 78.5% 

Rebounds Per Game: 6.9

Assist Per Game: 3.1

Blocks Per Game: 0.7

Steals Per Game: 0.9

Turnovers Per Game: 1.9

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Player B: 

Points Per Game: 7.4

Field Goal Percentage: 44.5%

Free Throw Percentage: 69.2% 

Rebounds Per Game: 7.3

Assist Per Game: 6.9

Blocks Per Game: 1.1

Steals Per Game: 1.4

Turnovers Per Game: 2.6

 

 

I know this one as well.  I prefer A as does most everyone.  But I think B will be the better value. A seems to be a consensus 3rd round pick but if I could get B in the 4th/5th then I will.  Both project to be better next year than last. 

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15 hours ago, Trench Mob said:

Player A: 

Points Per Game: 25.6

Field Goal Percentage: 47.5%

Free Throw Percentage: 80.8% 

Rebounds Per Game: 5

Assist Per Game: 5.5

Blocks Per Game: 0.7

Steals Per Game:1.5

Turnovers Per Game: 2.7

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Player B: 

Points Per Game: 26.6

Field Goal Percentage: 46.7%

Free Throw Percentage: 86.6% 

Rebounds Per Game: 4

Assist Per Game: 6.8

Blocks Per Game: 0.2

Steals Per Game: 0.9

Turnovers Per Game: 4.1

 

Both are probably going to get picked at the snake end. Both are on bad teams; usages should be bonkers. Decisions decisions...

 

 

Nice one.  I agree that it is very possible, in fact more than likely imo, that the stocks come down a little for Player A.  One thing you forgot to include are the 3 pointers...but just because I know who these guys are I would go Player A simply for the durability.  Player B seems like he's always missing time...

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1 hour ago, Trench Mob said:

I got another good one. A sneaky and deceptive one.

 

Player A: 

Points Per Game: 16.9

Field Goal Percentage: 54.9%

Free Throw Percentage: 78.5% 

Rebounds Per Game: 6.9

Assist Per Game: 3.1

Blocks Per Game: 0.7

Steals Per Game: 0.9

Turnovers Per Game: 1.9

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Player B: 

Points Per Game: 7.4

Field Goal Percentage: 44.5%

Free Throw Percentage: 69.2% 

Rebounds Per Game: 7.3

Assist Per Game: 6.9

Blocks Per Game: 1.1

Steals Per Game: 1.4

Turnovers Per Game: 2.6

 

 

 

This one's tough because Player B might also get drafted very early like 3rd round in a lot of drafts, and probably 4th at the very latest.  I would highly doubt he falls to the 5th, as everyone knows the situation.  I think it depends on team makeup and what you value.  If you already have 3 high scorers he would be a good choice in the 4th.  Theoretically you might be able to get both!  They actually seem to compliment and balance each other pretty well.  

 

 

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Player A  

23.8 points  2.4 threes  4.1 reb  4.2 ast  1.4 stl  0.4 blk  43% / 81% / 2.8 TO

 

Player B

23.7 points 1.9 threes 4.7 reb 4.5 ast 1 stl 0.4 blk  47% / 83% / 3.4 TO

 

Player A will likely get taken late 2nd - 3rd. 

Player B will likely get taken ???  Maybe 5th-6th.  

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34 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

Player A  

23.8 points  2.4 threes  4.1 reb  4.2 ast  1.4 stl  0.4 blk  43% / 81% / 2.8 TO

 

Player B

23.7 points 1.9 threes 4.7 reb 4.5 ast 1 stl 0.4 blk  47% / 83% / 3.4 TO

 

Player A will likely get taken late 2nd - 3rd. 

Player B will likely get taken ???  Maybe 5th-6th.  

I think progression is expected from player A and regression from B.  Also, B misses a lot of games.  Still, A is probably overrated.  He was 17th in totals in punt FG I think so there’s that. 

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7 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I think progression is expected from player A and regression from B.  Also, B misses a lot of games.  Still, A is probably overrated.  He was 17th in totals in punt FG I think so there’s that. 

 

Yeah he's a good pairing with the player you'd take at #1.  Lots of good pairings at the turn coming back for you in punt FG. 

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Player A

15.7 points  1.5 threes 6 reb  2.1 ast  1.1 stl  0.7 blk  45% / 85% / 1.5 TO

Player B

18.7 points  2.3 threes 9 reb  1.4 ast  .7 stl  0.6 blk  43% / 87% / 1.6 TO

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Am I the only lazy one here wondering who these players are but doesn't want to check the stats?

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57 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

Am I the only lazy one here wondering who these players are but doesn't want to check the stats?

If you spend enough time on BBM these lines become second nature.  I’ve recognized everyone so far.  I’m sure there are better uses of time 💁‍♂️

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I noticed some similar stats comparing two players and thought of this thread:

A: 19.5ppg,9.8rpg,2.0apg,0.9 threes,0.4spg,0.6bpg,56.0fg%,76.6ft%,2.0to

B: 21.4ppg,8.7rpg,3.1apg,0.9 threes,0.7spg,0.6bpg,52.5fg%,73.1ft%,2.7to

 

These two were ranked about the same for 8-cat last year, but A will be picked around pick 25-30 and B will be picked around pick 40-60 (depending on scoring, etc.). I agree that player A (Collins) is more likely to improve a bit since his defensive numbers should go up and the better ft%, and I would much rather have him. But player B (Randle) could be a much better value in 8cat or if he slips outside the first 60 picks.

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You can't go two seconds into a Collins conversation without someone pointing out that Collins got like two steals for all of 2018, and that's super unlikely to happen again. So I guess I'll be that guy. 

Meanwhile Randle is more consistent in his inability to get stocks. 

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1 hour ago, Tom Chambers said:

You can't go two seconds into a Collins conversation without someone pointing out that Collins got like two steals for all of 2018, and that's super unlikely to happen again. So I guess I'll be that guy. 

Meanwhile Randle is more consistent in his inability to get stocks. 

I don't buy that.  Randle's best season was last year and he only produced 1.3 stocks in 30 minutes a game.  Where as Collins wasn't far off that and has far more room to improve that part of his game imo.  Then again, i think if you're getting Randle for his stocks you're destined to do very poorly this season...  and probably every season.  Randle's T/O's scare me.

Edited by Gorgeous George

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2 minutes ago, Gorgeous George said:

I don't buy that.  Randle's best season was last year and he only produced 1.3 stocks in 30 minutes a game.  Where as Collins wasn't far off that and has far more room to improve that part of his game imo.  Then again, i think if you're getting Randle for his stocks you're destined to do very poorly this season...  and probably every season.  Randle's T/O's scare me.

 

1 hour ago, Tom Chambers said:

Meanwhile Randle is more consistent in his inability to get stocks. 

I think what he meant was that Randle has a longer history of not getting stocks, while Collins weak stocks could perhaps be considered an outlier.  

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