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LeBron James 2019-20 Season Outlook

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Will he play only 55 games again this season or will he see more action since he will be playing PG? 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Dirtbag said:

Will he play only 55 games again this season or will he see more action since he will be playing PG? 

He missed most of those game because of a pop in his knee. I see him playing 70 games. 

Edited by johnval1362

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1 minute ago, johnval1362 said:

He missed most of those game because of a pop in his knee. I see him playing 70 games. 

I thought it was a groin issue? 

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2 minutes ago, Dirtbag said:

I thought it was a groin issue? 

Oh ya you're right. It was groin. Just remember him saying he felt a pop. Either way, hes one of the most durable players in NBA history. He will be rested but there isn't much reason to doubt his health, in my opinion. 

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1 minute ago, johnval1362 said:

Oh ya you're right. It was groin. Just remember him saying he felt a pop. Either way, hes one of the most durable players in NBA history. He will be rested but there isn't much reason to doubt his health, in my opinion. 

So you see him playing 70 games. That’s not too bad. I’m hoping he plays all 82 just because he loves playing with AD lol

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13 minutes ago, Dirtbag said:

So you see him playing 70 games. That’s not too bad. I’m hoping he plays all 82 just because he loves playing with AD lol

Neither of them have significant history of hard core injury but both will have maintenance days.  My conclusion is that they are low risk of catastrophic injury but high risk of minor injury. 

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im hoping the offseason did him good. He has a lot of mileage, coming in back to back to back finals probably puts considerable load on ure body. Not even making the playoffs this year has called for some much warranted rest.

Good to see had an offseason where he chilled- like filming space jam 2, eating tacos with AD or smokin bogies with westbrook and cp3. 

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3 hours ago, Ganandorf said:

 

Good to see had an offseason where he chilled- like filming space jam 2, eating tacos with AD or smokin bogies with westbrook and cp3. 

I’m sure that smoking fat blunts and eating like s--- is precisely what a 35 year old professional athlete needs to get back into championship mode. 

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I think he'll come back stronger than ever. Combination of rest + letdown + first real injury + AD and boogie joining him will have him fired up AF.

 

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2 minutes ago, doomz said:

I think he'll come back stronger than ever. Combination of rest + letdown + first real injury + AD and boogie joining him will have him fired up AF.

 

Presumably every player is fired up AF bc their livelihood and legacy relies on it.  Unfortunately, basketball is a skill sport, and I don’t think being fired up is a category in 9 cat. 

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9 hours ago, Ganandorf said:

im hoping the offseason did him good. He has a lot of mileage, coming in back to back to back finals probably puts considerable load on ure body. Not even making the playoffs this year has called for some much warranted rest.

Good to see had an offseason where he chilled- like filming space jam 2, eating tacos with AD or smokin bogies with westbrook and cp3. 

 

Back to back to back....8 straight finals...same thing.

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3 hours ago, Sriracha said:

 

Back to back to back....8 straight finals...same thing.

u get the point 😃

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8 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Presumably every player is fired up AF bc their livelihood and legacy relies on it.  Unfortunately, basketball is a skill sport, and I don’t think being fired up is a category in 9 cat. 

 

You would think all players are fired up but that is definitely not the case.  As Kings fans know, and presumably Warriors fans will learn, a guy named Cauley-Stein never appeared to be fired up even though he would have thrived had he actually given a s---. 

But back to LBJ, in his case, motivation could be the driving force behind his production. You could tell he was not that motivated last season, because of a combination of factors, but notably that things just weren't going well, and he saw the writing on the wall.  He is still good enough to coast (in general, with some explosions) to a top 20 season or something - I don't know exactly where he ended up. So I think you are right that "focus" is not a category, but if LBJ is playing hard and fired up he will be a much better fantasy player this year than he was last season. He will definitely be in the top 10 this year imo.

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31 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

You would think all players are fired up but that is definitely not the case.  As Kings fans know, and presumably Warriors fans will learn, a guy named Cauley-Stein never appeared to be fired up even though he would have thrived had he actually given a s---. 

But back to LBJ, in his case, motivation could be the driving force behind his production. You could tell he was not that motivated last season, because of a combination of factors, but notably that things just weren't going well, and he saw the writing on the wall.  He is still good enough to coast (in general, with some explosions) to a top 20 season or something - I don't know exactly where he ended up. So I think you are right that "focus" is not a category, but if LBJ is playing hard and fired up he will be a much better fantasy player this year than he was last season. He will definitely be in the top 10 this year imo.

I was being being facetious to prove a point. But I really don’t think players intentionally ship in a season, at least not generally intentionally. Trying harder isn’t necessarily a good thing either.  Maybe being motivated is an important factor in something like football or track where iron will can come in handy.   But basketball is more like golf.  Go try harder in golf and see where it takes you.  You need to be in flow.  Trying harder=lower FG and higher TO.

 

 I also think LeBron will be top 10, think he finished last year 23rd btw.   But I would couch that in mathematical terms rather than saying he will try harder. Eg he was 6th two years ago and that production is replicable.  I don’t think he will play over 70 games, however.  With AD in tow they will be even more cautious with rest and he’s also 35.  Additionally his punt FT/TO build leaves little room for error.  

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41 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I was being being facetious to prove a point. But I really don’t think players intentionally ship in a season, at least not generally intentionally. Trying harder isn’t necessarily a good thing either.  Maybe being motivated is an important factor in something like football or track where iron will can come in handy.   But basketball is more like golf.  Go try harder in golf and see where it takes you.  You need to be in flow.  Trying harder=lower FG and higher TO.

 

 I also think LeBron will be top 10, think he finished last year 23rd btw.   But I would couch that in mathematical terms rather than saying he will try harder. Eg he was 6th two years ago and that production is replicable.  I don’t think he will play over 70 games, however.  With AD in tow they will be even more cautious with rest and he’s also 35.  Additionally his punt FT/TO build leaves little room for error.  

 

I see what you are saying, bball is definitely a sport that requires skill and purely exerting more energy, working out more, juicing, or anything along those lines doesn't mean improved performance. This is exactly why it's my favorite sport. My argument is actually that for LeBron (who is an extreme outlier), literally trying harder can make his numbers better. Of course, I don't have anything to back this. But this man is as close to the ideal physical specimen for a complete basketball player we have ever seen and if he locks in compared to last year, he can improve effort-related things like FG% (drives instead of jumpers), STL and BLK (both mostly results of high-effort plays) on a per-game basis (FT% remains a mystery and his popcorn stats never dipped.) Plus, I expect him to play one or two more minutes per game just because I don't see them getting blown out as often.

If this is the year that father time catches up with LBJ, then this may all be wrong.  But nobody seems to expect that, he is a freak of nature. 

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24 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

I see what you are saying, bball is definitely a sport that requires skill and purely exerting more energy, working out more, juicing, or anything along those lines doesn't mean improved performance. This is exactly why it's my favorite sport. My argument is actually that for LeBron (who is an extreme outlier), literally trying harder can make his numbers better. Of course, I don't have anything to back this. But this man is as close to the ideal physical specimen for a complete basketball player we have ever seen and if he locks in compared to last year, he can improve effort-related things like FG% (drives instead of jumpers), STL and BLK (both mostly results of high-effort plays) on a per-game basis (FT% remains a mystery and his popcorn stats never dipped.) Plus, I expect him to play one or two more minutes per game just because I don't see them getting blown out as often.

If this is the year that father time catches up with LBJ, then this may all be wrong.  But nobody seems to expect that, he is a freak of nature. 

 I think there’s a little homerism going on.  Many of the people in this site are younger than I and grew up with him.  To me he’s a generational player but not the GOAT.  I don’t seek an goat argument, I hate those.  My only point is that I really think people expect him to just rebound after injury at the age of 35 because he’s the greatest in their eyes.  But that would be an extreme outlier event and IMO even LeBron can’t beat Father Time.  I think he will be good but people act both in fantasy and irl as if he’s still the best player in the league.  I’d expect top 10 value, 70 games played. However, I can’t fault anyone for taking him in the tail end of the first bc it’s so murky there.  I wouldn’t get my hopes up either. 

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13 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Presumably every player is fired up AF bc their livelihood and legacy relies on it.  Unfortunately, basketball is a skill sport, and I don’t think being fired up is a category in 9 cat. 

I see you. I "liked" the post. But I raise you this guy:

olowomi01.jpg

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

 I think there’s a little homerism going on.  Many of the people in this site are younger than I and grew up with him.  To me he’s a generational player but not the GOAT.  I don’t seek an goat argument, I hate those.  My only point is that I really think people expect him to just rebound after injury at the age of 35 because he’s the greatest in their eyes.  But that would be an extreme outlier event and IMO even LeBron can’t beat Father Time.  I think he will be good but people act both in fantasy and irl as if he’s still the best player in the league.  I’d expect top 10 value, 70 games played. However, I can’t fault anyone for taking him in the tail end of the first bc it’s so murky there.  I wouldn’t get my hopes up either. 

I agree with the analysis up to the end. Not sure LBJ can even be a top 10 value. He has to slip, both on games played and minutes played. Staggering with AD will enable him to play 32 minutes a night, far lower than any previous season. Last season he was at 35+ minutes. And he will take days off to conserve for a PO run.

The minute reduction alone drops every counting stat by 10%. Additionally, he is playing with two great passing bigs. They will run more of a high post offense, initiating the offense with a big man on the elbow. Think Vlade or DMC in Sacto. That means Boogie gets more assists, and LBJ less. He will still do the LBJ thing, but less often, and enough to knock another 10% off his assists. And two great bigs mean less rebounding. And blocks go down because he won't be asked to guard in the post. Maybe steals stay where they are, since he will only continue to freelance and play free safety on defense, and while he can't stay with his man, he will use his high IQ to steal in the passing lanes. Maybe he keeps his 3s with all the gravity of the bigs. But he will likely dish to better 3p shooters on the perimeter.

So all in all:

24.5 points, 6.5 rebs, 7.0 assists, .4 blks, 1.1 stls, 1.5 3pm with 66% FT%.  

It's a nice top 20 line, but he will be too expensive where he gets drafted in most leagues, due to his name value. The popcorn stats will look fine, and casual fans will still think he is the best player. But the stats will be hollow.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, hornrimmed_rambis said:

I agree with the analysis up to the end. Not sure LBJ can even be a top 10 value. He has to slip, both on games played and minutes played. Staggering with AD will enable him to play 32 minutes a night, far lower than any previous season. Last season he was at 35+ minutes. And he will take days off to conserve for a PO run.

The minute reduction alone drops every counting stat by 10%. Additionally, he is playing with two great passing bigs. They will run more of a high post offense, initiating the offense with a big man on the elbow. Think Vlade or DMC in Sacto. That means Boogie gets more assists, and LBJ less. He will still do the LBJ thing, but less often, and enough to knock another 10% off his assists. And two great bigs mean less rebounding. And blocks go down because he won't be asked to guard in the post. Maybe steals stay where they are, since he will only continue to freelance and play free safety on defense, and while he can't stay with his man, he will use his high IQ to steal in the passing lanes. Maybe he keeps his 3s with all the gravity of the bigs. But he will likely dish to better 3p shooters on the perimeter.

So all in all:

24.5 points, 6.5 rebs, 7.0 assists, .4 blks, 1.1 stls, 1.5 3pm with 66% FT%.  

It's a nice top 20 line, but he will be too expensive where he gets drafted in most leagues, due to his name value. The popcorn stats will look fine, and casual fans will still think he is the best player. But the stats will be hollow.

 

 

By way of comparison how would you rank the following in H2H 9 cat around pick 8-12: Beal, PG13, LeBron, Embiid, Kawhi.  Including injury risk, playoff schedule, totals, etc 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

By way of comparison how would you rank the following in H2H 9 cat around pick 8-12: Beal, PG13, LeBron, Embiid, Kawhi.  Including injury risk, playoff schedule, totals, etc 

 

I haven't done my actual ranks for this season, but they are all better than LeBron. 

Personally, I'd say:

Beal, Kawhi, Embid, PG13, LeBron

And PG13 gets a knock due to being out potentially for a while. I have heard reports all over the place on him and until it's locked down, I don't like it.

Let's put it this way. Every one of those guys could realistically outperform that rank, but LeBron only goes one way. No one beats Father Time.

 

 

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12 hours ago, hornrimmed_rambis said:

I agree with the analysis up to the end. Not sure LBJ can even be a top 10 value. He has to slip, both on games played and minutes played. Staggering with AD will enable him to play 32 minutes a night, far lower than any previous season. Last season he was at 35+ minutes. And he will take days off to conserve for a PO run.

The minute reduction alone drops every counting stat by 10%. Additionally, he is playing with two great passing bigs. They will run more of a high post offense, initiating the offense with a big man on the elbow. Think Vlade or DMC in Sacto. That means Boogie gets more assists, and LBJ less. He will still do the LBJ thing, but less often, and enough to knock another 10% off his assists. And two great bigs mean less rebounding. And blocks go down because he won't be asked to guard in the post. Maybe steals stay where they are, since he will only continue to freelance and play free safety on defense, and while he can't stay with his man, he will use his high IQ to steal in the passing lanes. Maybe he keeps his 3s with all the gravity of the bigs. But he will likely dish to better 3p shooters on the perimeter.

So all in all:

24.5 points, 6.5 rebs, 7.0 assists, .4 blks, 1.1 stls, 1.5 3pm with 66% FT%.  

It's a nice top 20 line, but he will be too expensive where he gets drafted in most leagues, due to his name value. The popcorn stats will look fine, and casual fans will still think he is the best player. But the stats will be hollow.

 

 

I agree for the most part but kind of silly hate that you ignore his fg% listing stats. Your numbers and analysis seem spot on but I see him shooting near 60% from the field I. His best fg% year ever. 

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31 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

I agree for the most part but kind of silly hate that you ignore his fg% listing stats. Your numbers and analysis seem spot on but I see him shooting near 60% from the field I. His best fg% year ever.  

What counts as " near 60% from the field" and what makes you think his FG% will go up? 

His FG% was higher than 56% only 2  seasons, both with Miami which had (arguably) better team than Lakers this season

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Posted (edited)

 

16 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

 I think there’s a little homerism going on.  Many of the people in this site are younger than I and grew up with him.  To me he’s a generational player but not the GOAT.  I don’t seek an goat argument, I hate those.  My only point is that I really think people expect him to just rebound after injury at the age of 35 because he’s the greatest in their eyes.  But that would be an extreme outlier event and IMO even LeBron can’t beat Father Time.  I think he will be good but people act both in fantasy and irl as if he’s still the best player in the league.  I’d expect top 10 value, 70 games played. However, I can’t fault anyone for taking him in the tail end of the first bc it’s so murky there.  I wouldn’t get my hopes up either. 

 

Not a homer (I am from Sacramento) but I certainly have a higher opinion of his abilities than you do. His whole life is an extreme outlier event, and I think that this year he will have fantasy success and end up around the top 10.

1 hour ago, johnval1362 said:

I agree for the most part but kind of silly hate that you ignore his fg% listing stats. Your numbers and analysis seem spot on but I see him shooting near 60% from the field I. His best fg% year ever. 

 

60% is out of the question but if he can get back up to 54% it would drive his fantasy value, obviously.

Edited by jay14bay

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44 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

What counts as " near 60% from the field" and what makes you think his FG% will go up? 

His FG% was higher than 56% only 2  seasons, both with Miami which had (arguably) better team than Lakers this season

I think the makeup of this Lakers team is going to help Lebron quite a bit. I don't think he is going to hit 60% and even if he does that isn't a wise number to pencil in for your projections because it has a low chance of hitting and distorting your build. 

Anyway, the majority of comments are about father time and bounce back and no one is really analyzing what the Lakers did in the offseason and how it will impact Lebron this season. Here are some bullet point thoughts...

Motivation: As much as Lebron/Lakers sold the youth movement, he just isn't a guy for developing teams. He always has stars/veterans and playing with the kids last year no doubt impacted him. He should be happy sharing a court with professionals. Even if they made the playoffs he knew the team was not ready for playoff basketball. 

Wear and tear: Yes, he has a crazy amount of miles. But, the Lakers are doing things to take him away from the paint and Lebron has always hated the idea of being a 4 even in small ball era. AD, Kuz, Boogie....Lebron should be guarding wings or spend time with spacing 4's or crappy 2's. I don't see him fighting for boards in the paint and will leave it to the younger guys. Also, the Danny Green signing should mean that Danny guards the more dynamic wing and Lebron guards the inferior wing. Even when Danny sits they can throw Bradley onto the tougher matchup. This is going to add up to a lot of "hiding" Lebron on defense and that is exactly what he needs at this stage of his career. I see a lot of rebounds, outlet to Lebron, and then he runs the break. Kind of like Westbrook only without the need for him to actually vulture the board. Overall, I just see Lebron picking his spots to actually play defense with effort this year. Not too many teams are going to force him to guard a dynamic player. Off the top of my head the Clippers are the one matchup that could force Lebron into having to play defense on a dynamic player. But he can hide vs. the Rockets, Bucks, and teams like that more easily. And the Lakers are going to lean heavily on the supporting cast in the regular season. 

Health: I get that he was injured last year for the first time. But, I don't think he is a dude that is just coasting down the stretch of his career in terms of not putting in work for his physical condition. Everyone can get hurt. With Lebron it is more about rest days at this stage. You can bake in some form of risk for an injury, but you can do that for every player. Even dudes like Harden have had hamstring stuff pop up more often that Lebron. 

Outlook: I think Lebron is still a very interesting guy to build around. I think his assists will be up, boards down, and he is still going to get his points to be a plus in that category. I can see him settling for more jumpers. I can also see the Lakers playing at a slower pace. In general, he is still going to do what he usually does and the end of year ranking isn't the most important thing with Lebron. You have to build around his statline because there are strengths and there are weaknesses. Format matters. There isn't a blanket statement on where he should be drafted and it will depend on builds, formats, and appetite for risk. 

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55 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

 

Not a homer (I am from Sacramento) but I certainly have a higher opinion of his abilities than you do. His whole life is an extreme outlier event, and I think that this year he will have fantasy success and end up around the top 10.

 

60% is out of the question but if he can get back up to 54% it would drive his fantasy value, obviously.

Where you live has no bearing on whether or not you’re a LeBron homer.  I’d suspect 90% of people born after 1990 are LeBron homers.  Not that I’m putting you into that camp either.  I guess agree to disagree because my stance is two fold: 1) no one at the age of 35 that I’m aware of has returned from injury and posted top 10 value the previous year; 2) His very nature, punt FT/To caps his upside.  Historically, his freakish stats have been enough to overcome this disadvantage but I’m skeptical if he can do that this year.  I’m not going to entertain notions of him being motivated bc to me that’s an egocentric argument.  Everyone wants to win and one can’t measure how badly a player wants to win, there is no metric for that.  And if you want to go that route then Conley, Mitchell, Stifle etc are so ******** motivated to win bc they’ve never won before.  It’s not measurable. FWIW I almost drafted LeBron 8th in a $200 buy in H2H league but drafted Beal instead.  I don’t like either of those picks which highlights the difficult picking past 5 this year.  If anyone wants to pick LeBron there, may as well, have to pick someone.

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