johnval1362

Victor Oladipo 2019-2020 Outlook

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1) When is he supposed to return from injury? 

2) Whose minutes is he going to take upon return? 

3) What numbers do you expect? 

4) where are you drafting him?

 

I see him going in the 5th which I think may be too early given the rest and fact that he wasn't playing all that well even when healthy. I would aim for the 7th but I don't know he will remain. 

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2 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

1) When is he supposed to return from injury? 

2) Whose minutes is he going to take upon return? 

3) What numbers do you expect? 

4) where are you drafting him?

 

I see him going in the 5th which I think may be too early given the rest and fact that he wasn't playing all that well even when healthy. I would aim for the 7th but I don't know he will remain. 

 

1) He’s been working out since June/July (not just rehab, actual conditioning and skills drills). I don’t honestly know what to make of it, as he looks like he can play as is - but i’m sure gearing up for an entire season+playoffs needs him to be in even better shape. The Pacers will probably release a statement in the next month or so.

Source: his Youtube channel

2) Any combination of Vic, Brogdon and Lamb look like the backcourt rotation - wouldn’t surprise me if they staggered him and Brog to run the offense as they can play on and off the ball. Lamb has the most to lose when/if he starts playing.

3) Aside from health, a major reason his numbers took a hit last season - is the Pacers intentionally playing him off the ball (exiled to a corner) to get Collison and Bog more involved - it was weird but I understand why they were pushing for it as more players needed to step up and score. (Tyreke who they were banking on, sucked, Collison struggled off the ball, Cory joseph isn’t a good offensive player)

This season’s incarnation has significantly more capable offensive players; So I don’t see the offense just being JUST the VO show anymore.

You add the rust and a dip seems inevitable though.

As a floor: 16ppg, 2 3PM, (43% fg, 74% ft), 3 rpg, 4 apg, 1.4 spg and 0.3 bpg with 3 TO

4) He’s likely gone by pick 60 in most standard leagues (12 man) though

Just my 2c

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15 hours ago, Mikhov said:

 

1) He’s been working out since June/July (not just rehab, actual conditioning and skills drills). I don’t honestly know what to make of it, as he looks like he can play as is - but i’m sure gearing up for an entire season+playoffs needs him to be in even better shape. The Pacers will probably release a statement in the next month or so.

Source: his Youtube channel

2) Any combination of Vic, Brogdon and Lamb look like the backcourt rotation - wouldn’t surprise me if they staggered him and Brog to run the offense as they can play on and off the ball. Lamb has the most to lose when/if he starts playing.

3) Aside from health, a major reason his numbers took a hit last season - is the Pacers intentionally playing him off the ball (exiled to a corner) to get Collison and Bog more involved - it was weird but I understand why they were pushing for it as more players needed to step up and score. (Tyreke who they were banking on, sucked, Collison struggled off the ball, Cory joseph isn’t a good offensive player)

This season’s incarnation has significantly more capable offensive players; So I don’t see the offense just being JUST the VO show anymore.

You add the rust and a dip seems inevitable though.

As a floor: 16ppg, 2 3PM, (43% fg, 74% ft), 3 rpg, 4 apg, 1.4 spg and 0.3 bpg with 3 TO

4) He’s likely gone by pick 60 in most standard leagues (12 man) though

Just my 2c

 

Great post.

I think where he gets drafted is highly dependent on what news comes out about his availability.

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I think Vic takes as many minutes as he can handle with health. It isn't a question of who he takes minutes from, it is a question of who gets the leftover minutes. 

I think he has a very low chance of being available in the 7th round unless he has a substantial setback. People will see the recent stat lines and go back to the well hoping for a rebound. I am interested in hearing his return timetable and then backing into some projections. Still a little early at this point. 

 

 

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I'm finding that no one in early real (as opposed to mocks, which don't count) drafts is as big a wild card as this guy.  Maybe Love?

Like everyone forgets about him until AT LEAST the 6th round, and then when someone finally drafts him, there's a mixture of:

1) "lol"

2) "oh, right, he'll be back in like January"

3) "maybe he'll be back in December"

4) "have you seen the vids, he could be back in November"

And there's just general confusion, uncertainty, and unease about him.  High risk and high reward.

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I'm somewhat concerned that even when he comes back that his one first round year is an outlier.  His rankings have been: 53, 10, 87, 34.  Some of those were admittedly coming off injuries and from three different teams.  It's honestly impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy what he will do.  Not to mention that the most games he's played in the past four seasons is 75.  Even when he comes back, he will have rest days, and probably sit back to backs.  Meaning he might, imo maximum, play 40 games.  I wouldn't count on him being top 10 again either...maybe top 30.  So you're getting 40 games of top 30 value?  I think the upside is medium and the downside is low.  Let's just say that I haven't targeted him.

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I'm certain his first round value was an outlier.  But I'm also certain he could be a top 30 player at his peak.

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Just now, Pyschout said:

I'm certain his first round value was an outlier.  But I'm also certain he could be a top 30 player at his peak.

I agree, but my question is how highly do you value 40ish games of top 30 value?  It makes sense that he would go outside the top 5 rounds imo.

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2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I agree, but my question is how highly do you value 40ish games of top 30 value?  It makes sense that he would go outside the top 5 rounds imo.

I don't value it very high, but let's be clear: We simply don't know when he's coming back.  Would December shock you?  Would October shock you?  To me, neither would.  So that's the entire point.  How do you value 40ish games?  How do you value 60ish games?  Or, in H2H, how do you value having a guy on your IR for the first 3-4 matchups, then giving you top 40 (because he's still resting some) value overall the rest of the season?

I understand why you said the top 5 rounds, because I kinda implied that it was weird that he wasn't thought of until the 6th, but that's not what I meant.  What I meant was even into the 6th-7th-8th rounds, there's still a huge mixture of responses when he's drafted.  When SGA or WCJ get drafted in those rounds, there's no mixture.  There's just "ahhh I thought he'd last a few more picks!"  No one like *laughs* at it, like the person just drafted Boogie or KD.  

That's what I was more fascinated with: no one has any idea what to think of the guy. 

And i don't blame them lol

 

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I usually target injured stars but I have no interest in Dipo this year. I don’t believe he could be any better than he was in the 18-19 season when he got injured. This is a different type of knee injury, unlike an ACL where we have seen guys hit the ground running. I can see him finishing anywhere between 50-100 but see no chance at top 30. 

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On 8/29/2019 at 9:19 AM, StifleTower2 said:

I'm somewhat concerned that even when he comes back that his one first round year is an outlier.  His rankings have been: 53, 10, 87, 34.  Some of those were admittedly coming off injuries and from three different teams.  It's honestly impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy what he will do.  Not to mention that the most games he's played in the past four seasons is 75.  Even when he comes back, he will have rest days, and probably sit back to backs.  Meaning he might, imo maximum, play 40 games.  I wouldn't count on him being top 10 again either...maybe top 30.  So you're getting 40 games of top 30 value?  I think the upside is medium and the downside is low.  Let's just say that I haven't targeted him.

I think you really have to dig into the context with his rankings. Skiles messed with him in Orlando forever. He escaped Skiles/Orlando just to get the death sentence of playing with Westbrook when he was not giving up the ball. He got free in Indiana and exploded in a great opportunity. Then underperformed on a surprisingly balanced team that exceeded expectations and pissed off a lot of people in the process that thought the previous year was the base for VO. I think the last 2 years are sort of the only ones that matter for insight to draw from....but I do agree that he is carries a lot of injury risk and he is always missing a chunk of games. 

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2 days ago – via Twitter SiriusXMNBA SiriusXM

NBA Radio: While speaking with @TheFrankIsola Pacers Center Myles Turner (@Original_Turner) was very optimistic about Victor Oladipo’s (@VicOladipo) return from injury. “He [Victor Oladipo] will be back a lot sooner than people think”.

Edited by iowncrazyhair

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Nate McMillan was on local radio earlier today discussing the upcoming season.  He said Victor is ahead of schedule but they aren't going to set a date for his return.  It sounds like he is pretty aggressively rehabbing.  Nate said he even rents out gym space when traveling so he doesn't miss on court work.

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I got him at #78 so hopefully he will be able to make a nice comeback season. Out until dec, top 150 at jan, Top 80 at feb and top 30 at march line would make me happy. Go little turtle Go ! 💲

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I don't know if he's putting the work into rehab since he's putting so much effort into the masked singer ;)

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Coach Nate McMillan said Victor Oladipo (right knee) will be able to play 5-on-5 and half court in the next couple days.

Anyone think he'll be back before December, or will be out until January? 

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2 hours ago, izeroi said:

Anyone think he'll be back before December, or will be out until January? 

If he is doing 5on5 already then definitely he should be back by Nov

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if you draft a strong starting 5 or 8, and have IR spot, he'd be a nice steal to stash

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Got him on the eleventh.

Hopefully I pick up few wins so I don't have to consider dropping him. I'm okay with early December. Not expecting anything huge from him, but he should do well considering how low he dropped.

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Got him at 79 in a 14 team league. Kinda high but was encouraged by the reports that he's been doing 5 on 5s. I also like taking chances on injured players in the 6th-8th rounds (last year I got Markkanen in the 7th). I Think I was also influenced bye need bc I went ultra heavy on centers in the beginning of the draft.

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13 hours ago, JormaJormala said:

Got him on the eleventh.

Hopefully I pick up few wins so I don't have to consider dropping him. I'm okay with early December. Not expecting anything huge from him, but he should do well considering how low he dropped.

 

I think once he comes back he'll be a back end top 50 guy.  It's a tough injury.  But at the price you got him that's a big win even for half a season.

Edited by laurilegend
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Victor Oladipo (knee) has gone through two, 5-on-5 practices and he will be re-evaluated in "about a month," according to head coach Nate McMillan.

Oladipo still hasn't been cleared for working out multiple days in a row, but he continues to make progress in his recovery from a brutal injury. He'll be re-evaluated in a month, but we're still not expecting him back until December at the earliest. He might not give you much until after the All-Star break, so those stashing him will need to be very patient this season.

 

So he's not going to be back in less than a month.  What do you think the chances are that he will play 50 games?

 

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