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Sternes

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Posted (edited)

cin. would get burned back in rudi Johnson palmer ocho cinco days, last few years its ajg, gio, mixon rookie year, Eifert.

 

but I do like the idea of getting ajg in auction for 10 bucks. 

Edited by colepenhagen

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2 hours ago, ToO_BaD said:

Fair I guess.  But not really sure why you bring up top 10 RB numbers or the #1 fantasy back for a guy who you say you are avoiding in the rounds 4-5.    

 

I'm comparing rookie year output vs other RB output. I'm pointing out that it is rare for rookie RB to put up good numbers in ideal situations.  He isn't in an ideal situation.  I thought I was clear in that point.

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40 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

I'm comparing rookie year output vs other RB output. I'm pointing out that it is rare for rookie RB to put up good numbers in ideal situations.  He isn't in an ideal situation.  I thought I was clear in that point.

It's not just "other RB" output.  You are comparing that output to the RBs who finished 1-10 last year.  He isn't being drafted as a top 10 RB, so who cares?  

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

It's not just "other RB" output.  You are comparing that output to the RBs who finished 1-10 last year.  He isn't being drafted as a top 10 RB, so who cares?  

 

What is the point you are driving at? I don't see one.

Edited by Sternes

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On 8/14/2019 at 4:07 AM, Nyblazer11235 said:

As much as I love the talent of both kerryon and Galloday I am staying away from that Detroit offense after having both last year and dealing with the frustration of having to rely on Stafford.

 

Another one is Tennessee. Corey Davis has all the talent in the world but Mariota stinks so want no part of that. Nor Henry who needs volume to wear down a defense. Don’t see that happening with this team trailing most of the time. 

Kerryon performed well though. I mean, until he was out with injury

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1 hour ago, Sternes said:

 

What is the point you are driving at? I don't see one.

"Fantasy points of the top rushers last season went from #1 Gurley 313.1 to #10 David Johnson 196.6.  There are only 19 rookie seasons since 2000 that would fit between those two numbers.  Two of those stand out as anomalies.  Kamara in 2017, (120 carries) due to the 8 rushing TDs to go with his ridiculous catching yardage and 5 receiving TD, and MJD in 2006, who had 166 carries, but averaged 5.67 YPC, while rushing for 13 (!!!!) TD.  He all had 426 receiving yards and 2 TD. The chances of him being a fantasy contributor are low in the crowded backfield and him being a rookie. With his ADP hovering in the 4-5 round range, HARD PASS on that."

 

 

 

I just don't really see the point of this stat when arguing that you are going to avoid him at his current ADP.  In that range you are not drafting a top 10 scoring RB.  So regardless of how many rookies have fit between those, and what crazy feats they had to hit to do it, it shouldn't matter.  If you gave stats on like 10-24 or so, that could make more sense.  Most people will be drafting him as a RB2 or even RB3.  I wasn't arguing your overall point, just this particular portion of it.  But if it doesn't make sense to you, then I guess it just is what it is.

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if next week goes like last night, the Cardinals are going to rocket to the top of my DND list. All of them. 

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22 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

Coach bias:

Gruden seems to favor veterans.  There are a lot of mouths to feed on that roster. It seems that Richard is entrenched as the 3rd down back. They brought back Martin and Gruden seems to love him.  Gruden also has a bizarre fetish for Washington.  Gruden is a terribly overrated offensive mind and I'm still not sure how he is gotten the title of a QB guru.  Gruden hasn't had a top 10 offense 2003.  He hasn't had a top 10 rushing attack since 2000. Gruden's rush offense rankings

 

Rush offense Attempts rank/Yardage rank/TD rank

1998 - 17th/16th/29th

1999 - 7th/3rd/4th

2000 - 3rd/1st/2nd

2001 -12th/24th/9th

2002 - 23rd/27th/31st

2003 -22nd/24th/30th

2004 -27th/29th/26th

2005 -15th/14th/14th

2006 - 28th/28th/31st

2007 - 11th/11th/7th

2008 - 11th/15th/19th

2018 - 23rd/25th/27th

 

Out of 12 seasons, he has finished in the top 10 twice.  He has been in the bottom 1/3 in 5 seasons. The other 5 seasons scattered between 11th and 17th. He also loves to pass the ball: In years of studying play callers' tendencies, we've never seen anyone lean on running backs as pass catchers as much as Gruden has. Practically a third of his quarterbacks' completions have gone to the position! For some context, 30.2 percent of the Panthers' receptions went to running backs this season, when Christian McCaffrey led the team in catches. And we're not talking about one or two years of massive outliers propping up that number – it's been real consistent. A rusher has caught at least 40 passes in eight of Gruden's 11 years.


Oakland also has a questionable offensive line that they have made changes to, but I'm not sure of what kind of results they will have.

 

Statistical bias:

Since 2000, there have been 40 rookie RB that have received over 200 carries their rookie year.  There have been 20 rookies who have gotten over 250 carries.   At a glance, all of those situations which allowed success were where the rookie was given the job from the start and not have to work his way up to the starter.  He would have to be remarkable efficient on a low volume of carries.  Fantasy points of the top rushers last season went from #1 Gurley 313.1 to #10 David Johnson 196.6.  There are only 19 rookie seasons since 2000 that would fit between those two numbers.  Two of those stand out as anomalies.  Kamara in 2017, (120 carries) due to the 8 rushing TDs to go with his ridiculous catching yardage and 5 receiving TD, and MJD in 2006, who had 166 carries, but averaged 5.67 YPC, while rushing for 13 (!!!!) TD.  He all had 426 receiving yards and 2 TD. The chances of him being a fantasy contributor are low in the crowded backfield and him being a rookie. With his ADP hovering in the 4-5 round range, HARD PASS on that.

 

Personal Bias

He is a rookie RB which will work against him in a crowded backfield. He also didn't have to pass protect much at Alabama which will limit his 3 down chances.  Alabama is a very successful program, but I find it harder to judge their player talent because they are better than their opponents at nearly every position.  Is that RB as good as he appears, or is that those 5 star recruits on the line that make him look good? With the rotation at RB they do, everyone is fresh and no one has to be leaned on.  He can be a workhorse but he never has had to be. He had 251 carries for his entire college career. He looks like a decent runner, I admittedly have seen very little film on him.  I watched a handful of Alabama games and often couldn't tell which back was in and lost track of who did what play.  That isn't me complaining, that is my crappy eyes not keeping up! Nothing screams to me elite talent from his measureables and he seems more of a mystery as to what kind of back he and what his actual potential is.  Even if is Barkley, he won't have the opportunity to be Barkley until half this season is gone or more likely, next year.

 

 

 

Thank you for this. 

 

Fantasy Football is frustrating because often times all the analyses and indicators can point one way and then it turns out completely different but your take here looks rock solid to me. 

I see JJ going in the middle of the third of Non PPR drafts now with some going WR, WR JJ as their #1 RB. Won’t be doing that. Thanks 

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2 hours ago, FreakFries said:

if next week goes like last night, the Cardinals are going to rocket to the top of my DND list. All of them. 

 

If a weak Raiders defense was able to do that with a few well designed "A gap blitzes and stunts", can you imagine what more elite defenses will do. The Cardinals looked like they had no answer. It's one thing not to run certain schemes and plays in preseason, but protecting your QB is elementary and is about execution. Preseason doesn't mean a lot but next week will tell us a lot about this Cardinals offense.

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17 hours ago, ToO_BaD said:

"Fantasy points of the top rushers last season went from #1 Gurley 313.1 to #10 David Johnson 196.6.  There are only 19 rookie seasons since 2000 that would fit between those two numbers.  Two of those stand out as anomalies.  Kamara in 2017, (120 carries) due to the 8 rushing TDs to go with his ridiculous catching yardage and 5 receiving TD, and MJD in 2006, who had 166 carries, but averaged 5.67 YPC, while rushing for 13 (!!!!) TD.  He all had 426 receiving yards and 2 TD. The chances of him being a fantasy contributor are low in the crowded backfield and him being a rookie. With his ADP hovering in the 4-5 round range, HARD PASS on that."

 

 

 

I just don't really see the point of this stat when arguing that you are going to avoid him at his current ADP.  In that range you are not drafting a top 10 scoring RB.  So regardless of how many rookies have fit between those, and what crazy feats they had to hit to do it, it shouldn't matter.  If you gave stats on like 10-24 or so, that could make more sense.  Most people will be drafting him as a RB2 or even RB3.  I wasn't arguing your overall point, just this particular portion of it.  But if it doesn't make sense to you, then I guess it just is what it is.

 

The point is that rookie RB don't usually put up good fantasy numbers, and need an ideal situation to do so.  He is going around Henry, Freeman, and Carson. I've seen him listed around anywhere from 11-20 in RB rankings. He is being taken as a low end RB1 or a RB2.  I don't know anywhere he is falling to RB3 status. If he is going 11th of the board at RB, is it such a stretch to expect top 10 production? 

 

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1 hour ago, nonstopfan said:

 

If a weak Raiders defense was able to do that with a few well designed "A gap blitzes and stunts", can you imagine what more elite defenses will do. The Cardinals looked like they had no answer. It's one thing not to run certain schemes and plays in preseason, but protecting your QB is elementary and is about execution. Preseason doesn't mean a lot but next week will tell us a lot about this Cardinals offense.

 

I agree with you.  There is a difference between being out of sync and not being able to do the basics. The Cardinals looked like the latter.

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8 minutes ago, Sternes said:

The point is that rookie RB don't usually put up good fantasy numbers, and need an ideal situation to do so. 

If you would put any other position than RB, I would agree with you. However, it's actually RB rookies that have the best chances of all rookies, and not very different from more experienced RBs.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

If you would put any other position than RB, I would agree with you. However, it's actually RB rookies that have the best chances of all rookies, and not very different from more experienced RBs.

 

I wasn't comparing them to other rookie positions though 😛.  RB has the least learning curve from college to NFL. The rookie RBs that do succeed have situations that allow it (as I stated before). I'm not saying rookie RB are less likely to have success vs other positions. As of right now, I don't see how Jacobs has that opportunity.

That is one reason people are overdrafting him, because of rookie RB having the best chance to contribute out of all the positions.

Edited by Sternes
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1 hour ago, Sternes said:

 

I wasn't comparing them to other rookie positions though 😛.  RB has the least learning curve from college to NFL. The rookie RBs that do succeed have situations that allow it (as I stated before). I'm not saying rookie RB are less likely to have success vs other positions. As of right now, I don't see how Jacobs has that opportunity.

That is one reason people are overdrafting him, because of rookie RB having the best chance to contribute out of all the positions.

Jacobs ran the ball the first three plays for Oakland last night.  He played with the starters, while Richard and Washington continued on after they were pulled.  Martin was not much of a factor while Lynch had the reigns the first six weeks last year, so I don’t view him as much, if any, of a threat.  And I will say one other thing - the only RB that Gruden has had a hand in drafting in the first round was Cadillac Williams in 2005.  He had 290 carries his rookie year in 14 games.  While the team stats you listed weren’t highly ranked, Williams individual performance in 2005 ranked him 11th in carries and 13th in yards.  No reason he couldn’t make a single back relevant even if his team stats aren’t flashy.  This is the first time he has taken another RB in the first round when being in control of a draft since then.  If I am drafting him as my RB2, I can certainly want or hope for higher production, but I also have to be okay that if he scores as a RB2 at the end of the season, I got the value I was drafting.  

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On Jacobs and the entire Raiders offense, let’s not also forget that they were playing the Cards D last night. Let’s see how their O line does against a Top 31 D.

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3 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

The point is that rookie RB don't usually put up good fantasy numbers, and need an ideal situation to do so.  He is going around Henry, Freeman, and Carson. I've seen him listed around anywhere from 11-20 in RB rankings. He is being taken as a low end RB1 or a RB2.  I don't know anywhere he is falling to RB3 status. If he is going 11th of the board at RB, is it such a stretch to expect top 10 production? 

 

 

Jacobs is actually the 19th or 20th RB off the board, depending on what source you use.  That said, I do prefer other RB's going around him, like Mack or Carson.

 

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5 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Jacobs is actually the 19th or 20th RB off the board, depending on what source you use.  That said, I do prefer other RB's going around him, like Mack or Carson.

 

 

I turned down a date with Alexandra Daddario, or got arrested outside her window, depending on what source you use.

 

As I stated above, I've seen a lot of variance in where he is going, 11 which is high, to 20 which seem to be his floor.  He is typically going around 15-17.  Look at ESPN for example: I just looked at these and Berry has them higher than anyone I've seen.

 

Berry - #8 RB

Clay - #16 RB

Crockcoft - #19 RB

Karabell - #19 RB

Yates - #13 RB

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Posted (edited)
On 8/15/2019 at 3:23 PM, bhawks489 said:

Kerryon performed well though. I mean, until he was out with injury

 

Ehh I’d say he was so so. Good value for his ADP last year but I just don’t think he’s worthy of being in the tier of other rb2s on better offenses like jones and freeman. I feel like his upside is capped.

Edited by Nyblazer11235

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