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Marvin Bagley III 2019-2020 Outlook

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I think Bagley will feast this season.  Looking forward to seeing what he does beside Dedmon.

 

Discuss.

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It will be interesting...I bet he takes over WCS role as the roller to the rim to maximize his athleticism and inside scoring, while Dedmon cuts to the 3 point line.  More spacing with Dedmon vs WCS.  I like it, but it might I'm wondering if his stat set is too empty for him to have enough value relative to draft position.  I want to say Bagley 2-4 rounds after Porzingis could be a good play as he gets similar empty-ish stats but more rebounds, better FG, and similar points...chips in blocks but not as much as Zinger of course.  And Bagley's a better bet to stay healthy.  I'm not quite sure where I stand on Bagley, but he'll likely be overdrafted and I won't end up with him.  Maybe a good alternative to Lauri as well, who will probably get taken at least a round or two earlier, but are similar in some ways.    

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Posted (edited)

Not much upside here IMO; He’s the third option behind Hield and Fox at best, and unless he addresses his putrid free throw shooting, < 1 3PM, stocks and 1 apg then i’ll stay away.

Dedmon may help with spacing but Buddy is the only true shooter in their starting lineup. So I dont see lots of opportunity for him to do more than he already has, barring significant improvements to his defensive ability, playmaking and shooting

Edited by Mikhov
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4 hours ago, Mikhov said:

Not much upside here IMO; He’s the third option behind Hield and Fox at best, and unless he addresses his putrid free throw shooting, < 1 3PM, stocks and 1 apg then i’ll stay away.

Dedmon may help with spacing but Buddy is the only true shooter in their starting lineup. So I dont see lots of opportunity for him to do more than he already has, barring significant improvements to his defensive ability, playmaking and shooting

He is 20, and I've never known a 20 year old young upside big to improve.  

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8 hours ago, Mikhov said:

Not much upside here IMO; He’s the third option behind Hield and Fox at best, and unless he addresses his putrid free throw shooting, < 1 3PM, stocks and 1 apg then i’ll stay away.

Dedmon may help with spacing but Buddy is the only true shooter in their starting lineup. So I dont see lots of opportunity for him to do more than he already has, barring significant improvements to his defensive ability, playmaking and shooting

 

No upside? He’s 20 LOL

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I know he’s 20, i’m saying i dont see him improving much on last year’s numbers because he’s the third option and doesn’t have a fantasy friendly game for the aforementioned reasons.

I freely admit that I could be wrong because he’s still young, but doubt that any improvements that he makes will compensate for his fantasy deficiencies this 2019-20 season.

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On 8/19/2019 at 6:09 PM, freddo said:

Not this year. But I'd be willing to swoop at about pick 75

 

On 8/19/2019 at 4:16 PM, Mikhov said:

I know he’s 20, i’m saying i dont see him improving much on last year’s numbers because he’s the third option and doesn’t have a fantasy friendly game for the aforementioned reasons.

I freely admit that I could be wrong because he’s still young, but doubt that any improvements that he makes will compensate for his fantasy deficiencies this 2019-20 season.

Not sure what improvements you are looking for to make you happy?  Post ASB:  19/9 with decent %s, .8 3PM and .9 blk in only 27 minutes/game as a 20 year old rookie.  Even with modest improvements I could easily see 20/10 with @ 1 3pm / 1 blk and improving %s.

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1 hour ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Not sure what improvements you are looking for to make you happy?  Post ASB:  19/9 with decent %s, .8 3PM and .9 blk in only 27 minutes/game as a 20 year old rookie.  Even with modest improvements I could easily see 20/10 with @ 1 3pm / 1 blk and improving %s.

 

Note: I play in 9 cat 14 man H2H

I would like him to address his free throw shooting and get more stocks before I draft him.

I initially considered him for a punt ft team; but that build doesn’t lack rebounding and needs stocks, assists and threes to be able to survive.

He’s really just a points guy that has to share with 3-4 other guys who are more established than him (Fox, Hield, Barnes and Bogd) so that caps him in the only category that he really excels at.

1 three and 1 bpg arent special, 1 apg and 67% ft on 4 attempts are undesirable; 50% fg and 7-8 rpg from a big is replaceable / can be compensated  for.

I dont hate him, just dont get why people are so high on him. It’s extra discouraging because he has the athletic tools to produce defensive stats.. but he just doesn’t. 

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his stocks will be fine that wouldn't be something that would deter me from drafting him. 

check his month to month splits on his stocks and his min played. stocks weren't there at the end of the season when he was taking on more on offense but he has the ability to get solid stocks. now if you want to fade him for other reasons then that's fair

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Posted (edited)

His ft% is a killer. I'll be staying away even though I predict 15 and 9 with 1.2 blks. I just don't see him doing any more than that and his ft% and out of position stats are too low for me to draft him at his ADP. I take him in the 8/9th. Dedmon can take away RBS from him and if SAC thinks they can make the playoffs, dedmon is probably the more useful player at the moment and could hurt some of his production. Say for example, bagley and dedmon cant share the floor well together, and dedmon gives the team as a whole better results alone vs bagley or vs them on the floor together? Then they do what's best for the team until they're out of playoff contention (unless they're giving up right away). Dedmon and Giles could be a better duo in the short term until playoff hope's are gone, and everyone loves a floor spacing big man. I think bagley and dedmon will share the floor well together, but theres still rbs to be lost. Really its just his ft% that turns me away. The other stuff is unlikely to effect him. 

I like bagley and had him in almost every league last year. He was a huge help in the playoffs, but still. I doubt I have him in many or any leagues unless at a discount. 

Edited by johnval1362
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6 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

His ft% is a killer. I'll be staying away even though I predict 15 and 9 with 1.2 blks. I just don't see him doing any more than that and his ft% and out of position stats are too low for me to draft him at his ADP. I take him in the 8/9th. Dedmon can take away RBS from him and if SAC thinks they can make the playoffs, dedmon is probably the more useful player at the moment and could hurt some of his production. Say for example, bagley and dedmon cant share the floor well together, and dedmon gives the team as a whole better results alone vs bagley or vs them on the floor together? Then they do what's best for the team until they're out of playoff contention (unless they're giving up right away). Dedmon and Giles could be a better duo in the short term until playoff hope's are gone, and everyone loves a floor spacing big man. I think bagley and dedmon will share the floor well together, but theres still rbs to be lost. Really its just his ft% that turns me away. The other stuff is unlikely to effect him. 

I like bagley and had him in almost every league last year. He was a huge help in the playoffs, but still. I doubt I have him in many or any leagues unless at a discount. 

 

 

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12 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Not sure what improvements you are looking for to make you happy?  Post ASB:  19/9 with decent %s, .8 3PM and .9 blk in only 27 minutes/game as a 20 year old rookie.  Even with modest improvements I could easily see 20/10 with @ 1 3pm / 1 blk and improving %s.

Great after ASB but it wasn't like he was top 75 in that time either.

I don't disagree with you on the stats and the modest improvements but where do you see that stat line ranking him though? 

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Posted (edited)
On 8/23/2019 at 7:06 AM, El_Chingon said:

 

Not sure what improvements you are looking for to make you happy?  Post ASB:  19/9 with decent %s, .8 3PM and .9 blk in only 27 minutes/game as a 20 year old rookie.  Even with modest improvements I could easily see 20/10 with @ 1 3pm / 1 blk and improving %s.

He suffers from the same problem as Adams, only worse.  Adams doesn’t provide enough to warrant moving into punt FT but if you’re already in punt FT then you already have sufficient FG/Reb/Blocks.  You draft Adams for steals in a punt FT team, but I’m unsure where Bagley even fits. 

 

The other problem I consistently see with young players who people like is they cherry pick a spot in the season when they flashed their potential then expect improvement from the already cherry picked data. The problem is that players don’t always improve, sometimes they regress.  Now the Kings have an even more crowded front court than previously.  

 

19/9 with one block and one three is attainable.  But his assist/steals are weak, even for a big, and he shoots around 3 for 5 for the line per game.  That’s worse than Capela, for example.  Even in his best stretch he was outside the top 100.  I would consider drafting him around the “dart throw” rounds.  You know, when there are no more good players left, and it’s either only solid shooting guards who get 2+ threes and score into the teens, or just rolls of the dice you hope hit.  But I wouldn’t spend a real (earlier than 10th) pick on him.  In auction, he’s like a $5 player to me.  

 

Even in punt FT, he was outside the top 100 for the year....

Edited by StifleTower2
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On 8/19/2019 at 4:09 PM, freddo said:

Not this year. But I'd be willing to swoop at about pick 75

 

 

that’s about where i got him 7th round (76th overall) .. i feel like people are absolutely sleeping on his upside. for those who saw him irl, you know he’s the real deal. 

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Pre season been kind of hype! What are the chances he sustains, I pulled a major idiot move and missed out on John Collins for draymon (I know, I know)

 

if bagley can average close to 18-10 I’ll feel less guilty about it.

 

lets goooooo bagggggggleeeyyyyy

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5 minutes ago, Walk with me said:

Pre season been kind of hype! What are the chances he sustains, I pulled a major idiot move and missed out on John Collins for draymon (I know, I know)

 

if bagley can average close to 18-10 I’ll feel less guilty about it.

 

lets goooooo bagggggggleeeyyyyy

New head coach who doesn't wait until it's too late to play his best players instead of aging veterans, more a free style flowing offense...I think he's going to flourish and if you miss out on a guy you really want in rd 6 you can definitely get him late rd 6 to make up for it...7 might be too late now regardless of #vsMelbourne or not...

 

Also, tbh, both Draymond and John Collins are inj prone, Draymond shed weight and will have a more expanded role this year in a muuuuch better offense so I don't see much of difference in the two...I think youre fine... lets go Bagley

Edited by dfstout
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27 minutes ago, dfstout said:

New head coach who doesn't wait until it's too late to play his best players instead of aging veterans, more a free style flowing offense...I think he's going to flourish and if you miss out on a guy you really want in rd 6 you can definitely get him late rd 6 to make up for it...7 might be too late now regardless of #vsMelbourne or not...

 

Also, tbh, both Draymond and John Collins are inj prone, Draymond shed weight and will have a more expanded role this year in a muuuuch better offense so I don't see much of difference in the two...I think youre fine... lets go Bagley

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Bogdan could have more minutes. Dedmon, Holmes could see more time.. but its Luke Walton.. can't predict anything.

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2 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

Person to pick up?

Gills or nemjinca

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