BigPapi2004

Sell-High Players

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Who are your the guys you think you can get the most value for right now or the guys whom you predict will not have the same success their first two years in the majors as their minor league numbers suggest? 

Personally, I think Pipeline top 100 guys like  Triston McKenzie (injury risk and no apparent velocity gain), Estevan Florial (for his poor pitch recognition), LouBob (Kiley says he might struggle initially a la Brinson or Moncada despite tools), India (hasn’t made much noise this year and tools are so-so) and Keibert (blocked and poor AA numbers) are the guys I’m selling. 

Curious who you have in your list. 

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There's no way Luis Robert lives up to the hype he's currently receiving. His MLB debut is bound to disappoint people.

 

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The Busts

Royce Lewis (SS) Minnesota Twins
He's a Speed Prospect that has a Some Power and for the speed to play in the majors you got to hit good enough to be on base and I don't think he has proven he can.


Forrest Whitley (SP) Houston Astros
The Talent is there but he has an injury history and a 50-game suspension and His command has never been particularly sharp and scouts from other organizations have been raising questions about his focus and maturity. So there are red flags all over the place here.


Michael Kopech (SP) Chicago White Sox
Getting a long injury history and is out with Tommy John and there is risk of ending up a bullpen pitcher.


Taylor Trammell (OF) San Diego Padres
A Power and Speed Guy. Some Scouts have question his Power and they may or may not be right there but there is a red flag bigger then that. His Batting Average his dropped each time he has gone up another level and his Batting average is bad enough now to say that might not play in the majors and if it doesn't there goes his one sure tool his Speed. So if your looking for the next Lewis Brinson this might be your guy.


Brent Honeywell (SP) Tampa Bay
Too injury prone in my option.


The Over Rated
Those are the one who I think there trade value is Higher then there real value.

Brendan Rodgers (SS) Colorado Rockies
Have you heard about there being a juiced ball. I think they forgot to tell Brendan Rodgers About it.


Kyle Tucker (OF) Houston Astros
His numbers have been strong and no red flags but he has disapointed every time he was called up and could be one that takes time to stick.



The Borderline Acceptable Club
There are those players that bearly meet the standard of fantasy worthy players but they are not worth holding onto waiting to become that. Here a list of players I view could become that.

Cristian Pache (OF) Atlanta Braves
Alex Kirilloff (OF,1B) Minnesota Twins
Sixto Sanchez (SP) Miami Marlins
Drew Waters (OF) Atlanta Braves
Mitch Keller (SP) Pittsburgh Pirates
Kyle Wright (SP) Atlanta Braves
Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) Pittsburgh Pirates
Jazz Chisholm (SS) Miami Marlins


The Late Blommers
Those guys I think will have allot of fantasy value but I don't think it will happen right away.

Jo Adell (OF) LA Angels (That may get options from you all but he doesn't seem to be progressing all that fast to be fantasy worthty.)
Estevan Florial (OF) New York Yankees


The Waiting List
Building up your fantasy team and keeping strong is about over turning you minor league team and not waiting too long for players of limited value and this is a list of players who's ETA is too far away to wait for what they have to offer.

Jarred Kelenic (OF) Seattle Mariners
Nolan Gorman (3B) St Louis Cardinals
Julio Rodriguez (OF) Seattle Mariners
Shea Langeliers (C) Atlanta Braves
Jordan Groshans (SS,3B) Toronto Blue Jays
Xavier Edwards (2B,SS) San Diego Padres
Brice Turang (SS,2B) Milwaukee Brewers

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50 minutes ago, Fantasy Monk said:

The Busts

Royce Lewis (SS) Minnesota Twins
He's a Speed Prospect that has a Some Power and for the speed to play in the majors you got to hit good enough to be on base and I don't think he has proven he can.


Forrest Whitley (SP) Houston Astros
The Talent is there but he has an injury history and a 50-game suspension and His command has never been particularly sharp and scouts from other organizations have been raising questions about his focus and maturity. So there are red flags all over the place here.


Michael Kopech (SP) Chicago White Sox
Getting a long injury history and is out with Tommy John and there is risk of ending up a bullpen pitcher.


Taylor Trammell (OF) San Diego Padres
A Power and Speed Guy. Some Scouts have question his Power and they may or may not be right there but there is a red flag bigger then that. His Batting Average his dropped each time he has gone up another level and his Batting average is bad enough now to say that might not play in the majors and if it doesn't there goes his one sure tool his Speed. So if your looking for the next Lewis Brinson this might be your guy.


Brent Honeywell (SP) Tampa Bay
Too injury prone in my option.


The Over Rated
Those are the one who I think there trade value is Higher then there real value.

Brendan Rodgers (SS) Colorado Rockies
Have you heard about there being a juiced ball. I think they forgot to tell Brendan Rodgers About it.


Kyle Tucker (OF) Houston Astros
His numbers have been strong and no red flags but he has disapointed every time he was called up and could be one that takes time to stick.



The Borderline Acceptable Club
There are those players that bearly meet the standard of fantasy worthy players but they are not worth holding onto waiting to become that. Here a list of players I view could become that.

Cristian Pache (OF) Atlanta Braves
Alex Kirilloff (OF,1B) Minnesota Twins
Sixto Sanchez (SP) Miami Marlins
Drew Waters (OF) Atlanta Braves
Mitch Keller (SP) Pittsburgh Pirates
Kyle Wright (SP) Atlanta Braves
Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) Pittsburgh Pirates
Jazz Chisholm (SS) Miami Marlins


The Late Blommers
Those guys I think will have allot of fantasy value but I don't think it will happen right away.

Jo Adell (OF) LA Angels (That may get options from you all but he doesn't seem to be progressing all that fast to be fantasy worthty.)
Estevan Florial (OF) New York Yankees


The Waiting List
Building up your fantasy team and keeping strong is about over turning you minor league team and not waiting too long for players of limited value and this is a list of players who's ETA is too far away to wait for what they have to offer.

Jarred Kelenic (OF) Seattle Mariners
Nolan Gorman (3B) St Louis Cardinals
Julio Rodriguez (OF) Seattle Mariners
Shea Langeliers (C) Atlanta Braves
Jordan Groshans (SS,3B) Toronto Blue Jays
Xavier Edwards (2B,SS) San Diego Padres
Brice Turang (SS,2B) Milwaukee Brewers

I wish you were in my leagues.

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40 minutes ago, aMediumPace said:

I wish you were in my leagues.

 

Is there any you disagree with. I can defend any one of them.

I know Julio Rodriguez is a big one that every one likes but he's a pure hitter with a high Average and lots of home Runs but he is 3 years away from the majors and he has no speed for Stolen Bases and he plays for a team that has a history of ruining elite hitting prospects one could easily deal him for Heliot Ramos who would give you the same batting average and Home Runs but would give you also Stolen Bases and you would have him a season earlier. Of course you got to know the real value of the player and not under sell him but if you holding onto him for 3 years you most have Stolen Bases attless 15 Stolen Bases.

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On 8/16/2019 at 12:35 PM, BigPapi2004 said:

Who are your the guys you think you can get the most value for right now or the guys whom you predict will not have the same success their first two years in the majors as their minor league numbers suggest? 

Personally, I think Pipeline top 100 guys like  Triston McKenzie (injury risk and no apparent velocity gain), Estevan Florial (for his poor pitch recognition), LouBob (Kiley says he might struggle initially a la Brinson or Moncada despite tools), India (hasn’t made much noise this year and tools are so-so) and Keibert (blocked and poor AA numbers) are the guys I’m selling. 

Curious who you have in your list. 

Besides Robert and maybe McKenzie, none of these guys are really "sell high" and some would 100% be sell lows. Everyone who follows baseball (majors and minors) and not just prospect lists knows how precarious Ruiz's situation is and Florial's shortcomings as a prospect (based on deadline talk) and could easily find India's slash line in the minors this year.

I think Robert is a solid inclusion but with the hype, I would want a really good return (which I think you could get). Would hesitate to sell McKenzie with how well Cleveland develops arms but I see the concerns so not totally opposed.

Florial and Ruiz are guys I would consider selling low (even though I hate doing that) on based on my bearish future outlooks but I may wait (especially in Ruiz's case) until he starts raking with the juiced Triple A ball to get a better return.

India is someone I would actually be looking to buy low on right now with his plate discipline in the hopes his AVG and power tools come on in Triple A and in Great American Ballpark.

My "sell high" list would be (and I mean sell high not just sell to get rid of): 

Deivi Garcia-most leagues have a Yankee fan: find that guy because Garcia has plenty of durability considerations and I am hesitant to trust pitching prospects who come out of nowhere like this

Casey Mize-Like LuBob I am not selling just to sell only for a high return but I am worried at his ability to be a high K guy at the next level

Monte Harrison-Never been a guy who hit for AVG due to his high K rate; not averse to this type of guy in general in today's game where guys are showing they can hit for AVG even while striking out a lot but his improvement only happened in Triple A with the juiced balls; the ceiling is still high so I would want a good return

Ian Anderson-again, I am only selling if I get a really nice return, but he has the same walk issues that have plagued all of Atlanta's starters tells me he could be where Kyle Wright is at right now in a year's time. I think the Braves should consider selling high in the offseason and believe dynasty owners should too

Ke'Bryan Hayes-his bat is still a project despite improved plate discipline (especially playing in PNC Park) and he is still high on a lot of lists so I think you may be able to sell him; I am just not all that high on this type of prospect

 

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Posted (edited)

Not sure if he qualifies as “well high” but Madrigal is the prospect I don’t want on any of my teams.

 

I don’t foresee any power developing and even if he keeps the batting average and SB’s he could easily only be a 2.5 category impact depending upon where he ends up in the lineup.

 

 

Edited by Gobux1970
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Honestly I like the effort put into the list, but the below I really take exception to. "Disappointed every time he was called up?" 

He was called up ONE TIME to the tune of roughly 60 at bats. Your comment should be modified.

Tucker is pushing for a 40/40 season in AAA despite a terrible month that depressed his average. He has been playing 1st and OF, with Redick showing diminishing value in RF. sitting currently at 10 homers and 4 steals with an average in the 260s, it really looks to me like Tucker will be a 1B/RF option in Houston next year. 

 

Kyle Tucker (OF) Houston Astros
His numbers have been strong and no red flags but he has disapointed every time he was called up and could be one that takes time to stick.

 

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1 hour ago, kwolf68 said:

Honestly I like the effort put into the list, but the below I really take exception to. "Disappointed every time he was called up?" 

He was called up ONE TIME to the tune of roughly 60 at bats. Your comment should be modified.

Tucker is pushing for a 40/40 season in AAA despite a terrible month that depressed his average. He has been playing 1st and OF, with Redick showing diminishing value in RF. sitting currently at 10 homers and 4 steals with an average in the 260s, it really looks to me like Tucker will be a 1B/RF option in Houston next year. 

Kyle Tucker (OF) Houston Astros
His numbers have been strong and no red flags but he has disapointed every time he was called up and could be one that takes time to stick.

And not only was he only called up once, he also wasn’t as bad as the numbers looked. His BB and K rates were solid and had a really good average exit velocity. Just hit the ball right at people which happens in a small sample.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, SpartyOn4 said:

And not only was he only called up once, he also wasn’t as bad as the numbers looked. His BB and K rates were solid and had a really good average exit velocity. Just hit the ball right at people which happens in a small sample.

 

Yep. Another case where people just don't investigate enough. Houston has come out and said he won't be a candidate for a call up until rosters expand. 

He has to absolutely be a full time major league player next year, the dude has nothing else left to prove in AAA. Houston has been unwilling to move him in ANY deals, even for elite talent. I doubt they are doing that to keep him buried in AAA as a "just in case" policy, rather they have him there because they think he can be great and we're going to see a legitimate run in 2020. Honestly, I'd be disappointed if he's not their opening day RF next year.  

The homer and speed numbers Redick has put up thus far here running toward the end of August are numbers Kyle Tucker can legitimately put up in a month. 

Edited by kwolf68

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5 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

Honestly I like the effort put into the list, but the below I really take exception to. "Disappointed every time he was called up?" 

He was called up ONE TIME to the tune of roughly 60 at bats. Your comment should be modified.

Tucker is pushing for a 40/40 season in AAA despite a terrible month that depressed his average. He has been playing 1st and OF, with Redick showing diminishing value in RF. sitting currently at 10 homers and 4 steals with an average in the 260s, it really looks to me like Tucker will be a 1B/RF option in Houston next year. 

 

Kyle Tucker (OF) Houston Astros
His numbers have been strong and no red flags but he has disapointed every time he was called up and could be one that takes time to stick.

 

 

I can admit when I'm wrong and there always can be a few things wrong in there. And that was a small detail I read in a Fantasy article that I remember reading and I'll admit I'm guilty of thinking that the writer of the article did give some effort and it had to be true to some degree.

Anyway, I just looked it up and for the record it was 3 times he was called up and his stay was very short each time and it is possible he didn't get enough at bats to get into a grove.

But his batting average is low enough to question how much that will play and Houston is a team with so many options that they can't give a player all that much time to prove themself and that would be something against him if that is valid.

So forgive me and I guess that is something I should have looked into

But that terrible month he had. That is something that should be looked into to figure why it happened. If a player has a terrible April, That can be dismessed he just got off to a cold start. If a player is called up to the next level and he has a terrible month that can be dismessed for they might not been fully ready to play at that level. His terrible month was july. Why did that happen? could it be that his team played a tough schedule against some really good teams and they shut him down. If that is the truth is that something you want to over look? Not saying it is for I haven't looked into it but we don't know why that bad month happen.

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It was a solid list. I don't agree with all of them but there's a lot of profit to be made on prospects. If you can get quality major leaguers, not the worst list to use, but I wouldn't be giving  away players just because.

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I feel like there has to be a distinction between sell high and hype trending down. Pretty much everyone listen in the writeup above except for those in "the waiting list" has had their stock or general value decrease over the past few weeks. The window to sell high for them is too late and already gone. Out of the players listed only Waters and Robert make sense as a sell high candidate, mostly in part because those are the only ones whose value has increased over the past few months.

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Sure— the “hype trending down” guys though can be split in two camps: the ones like Keibert, who as someone pointed out may recover some value from moving to a better AAA hitter environment, and those who will not appreciate in value like Triston McKenzie is for me. Trammell I still like in OBP leagues because I’ve heard that his selectivity and working deep into counts is working against him and once he makes the adjustment to be more aggressive he will improve the average. I also think that if you find someone buying Tucker for his SB potential, you gotta sell.

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Honeywell on a sell-high list is... something. 

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18 hours ago, Fantasy Monk said:

 

 

I know Julio Rodriguez is a big one that every one likes but he's a pure hitter with a high Average and lots of home Runs but he is 3 years away from the majors and he has no speed for Stolen Bases and he plays for a team that has a history of ruining elite hitting prospects one 

 

Ken Griffey?

Edgar Martinez?

Alex Rodriguez?

 

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5 minutes ago, HOOTIE said:

Ken Griffey?

Edgar Martinez?

Alex Rodriguez?

 

 

What's your point. They where the last ones they had and they where in there minor league like 30 years ago.

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

It was a solid list. I don't agree with all of them but there's a lot of profit to be made on prospects. If you can get quality major leaguers, not the worst list to use, but I wouldn't be giving  away players just because.

Very much this. I think a guy like Cristian Pache is a perfect sell in a dynasty league. He's a top 20 guy on most lists, has plus speed and is showing some pop. However, he gets a huge prospect boost from his elite CF defense. Besides that, he hasn't really learned to use that speed on the base paths yet. Take advantage of that ranking and move him if someone values him at that top 20 prospect level. Nolan Gorman is another guy who is universally ranked quite high and yeah he does have a high ceiling, but he comes with extreme risk. A few other top 100 guys who I think could bring nice value if someone is too caught up in rankings are Tyler Freeman,Nico Hoerner and Vidal Brujan.

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On 8/17/2019 at 11:20 AM, Maxcd99 said:

There's no way Luis Robert lives up to the hype he's currently receiving. His MLB debut is bound to disappoint people.

 

 

In two years this kid will be right up there with Acuna/Soto as one of the best young outfielders in the game. He oozes with talent and his ceiling is way up there. If he hits it lookout.

 

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

It was a solid list. I don't agree with all of them but there's a lot of profit to be made on prospects. If you can get quality major leaguers, not the worst list to use, but I wouldn't be giving  away players just because.

 

Yeah, Make good deals and make them make sense. It's a list to get you thinking and you shouldn't agree with them all, If you did you wouldn't have a brain to think things out and it is a understanding if you find the next big thing you have to drop someone to pick him up and if you don't have someone that you view to be an acceptable drop there someone else can get that player. Bottom line is the longer you hold a prospect there is a price to be paid there

Bottom line is it rearly worth holding a player 3 years. It's better to trade even if you make a bad deal or it don't mather if you over pay to get a high end player because a over pay usely opens a minor league roster spot, That allows you to pick up the next big thing.

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I don't know how he is valued in some leagues, but I think Jesus Luzardo fits the billing to me. Pitchers that are 6 foot and under with shoulder issues always give me worry for long term health. I think Luzardo could come into next year with a ton of hype if he can stay healthy until then, but this year has soured me a bit on his future in terms of how his arm will hold up.

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The thing about "sell-high prospects" is they should probably be different depending on your contention window.

If you're a few years away, Luis Robert is at the bottom of any sell-high list I would make up. The strikeouts make me worry about an adjustment period, but you'd be foolish to trade him away if you can ride out a year or two of lackluster production. He has the skillset to carry an offense in a few years. He's exactly the sort of player you should be gunning for. If you're already competing, that definitely changes. The high-strikeout guys, especially, I would try to move if you have a short contention window.

Two "classes" of guys I'd generally view as "sell-high" candidates would include:

High-profile pitchers: Injury risk + adjustment risk + reliever risk make me more leery of them than bats.

Bat-only prospects: Time and time again, these guys tend to come up and get put in a platoon or sent back and forth between the minors and majors. If they struggle at all in the Majors, they usually see their way to the bench in fairly short order. Defensive value can usually buy a prospect some time to work through the adjustment period.

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15 hours ago, Team Dynasty said:

 

In two years this kid will be right up there with Acuna/Soto as one of the best young outfielders in the game. He oozes with talent and his ceiling is way up there. If he hits it lookout.

 

Of course he could be. He also could be the next JP Crawford, Dansby Swanson, Clint Frazier, Ian Happ, Bradley Zimmer, Lewis Brinson, Orlando Arcia, Manny Margot, Brett Phillips, Franklin Barreto Addison Russell, or the two guys that I think most aptly compare to him at this point: Joc Pederson and Byron Buxton. Every player I mentioned had 5 tool superstar hype, although maybe not all to Robert's degree, and were all significantly more valuable before their professional debuts than after it in leagues with substantial minor league rosters.

 

People are spoiled with Acuna. The only player who has had a similar career trajectory to him was Mike Trout who debuted in 2011. That's 7 years in between him and Acuna's debut. Expect that and you're bound for disappointment. 

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