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Malcolm Brown 2019 Outlook

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Would not be at all surprised if he ended up being the back to own here. Played pretty well before getting hurt last year, and Henderson is still an unknown.

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The Rams matched a tender to keep him, and not for insignificant money. He's trusted by the organization and would probably be the more valuable back if Gurley went down early in the season. 

Henderson, of course, has a lot more upside and by midseason could easily be ahead of Brown in the pecking order. 

But Brown is being undervalued at the moment, and criminally so. 

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I think it is Henderson and it isn't that close. Brown is the reliable presence though that can mix in if Gurley were to miss extended time. Last season people thought it might be Kelly, but what we weren't hearing about is how the Rams viewed Kelley. Which apparently wasn't that high considering he is on the bubble after only one season. Safe to say the Rams aren't impressed.

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Lions wanted Brown but the Rams matched the offer. He makes for a great late round pick.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

I think it is Henderson and it isn't that close. Brown is the reliable presence though that can mix in if Gurley were to miss extended time. Last season people thought it might be Kelly, but what we weren't hearing about is how the Rams viewed Kelley. Which apparently wasn't that high considering he is on the bubble after only one season. Safe to say the Rams aren't impressed.

 

Or they just liked Brown more...

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Posted (edited)

The resigning of Brown at $1.6M per year means next to nothing in terms of RB pecking order, and I’m not sure given that why his proponents keep falling back on that.  Brown absolutely has value to the Rams, but if you do a modicum of research (and look at how the coaching staff views Brown in direct quotes) it’s at least as much for his special teams play as for his ability to provide some vet depth at RB.  

 

STers don’t mean anything to most FFers, but to NFL teams they have huge value.  A significant portion of the total plays run in a game are special teams plays of some kind.  Teams put a premium on guys who excel on multiple ST squads and Brown plays on all of them, and plays very well.

 

So that $1.6M/yr contract means little in terms of RB workload when ST play is considered.  If you look at that contract, the Rams would eat $50k in dead money if they were to cut him after the 2020 league year started.  That’s not a typo - he would be all of a $50k cap hit in dead money if cut next June.  Does that sound like a guy the Rams consider so important that the wanted to lock him up for the entire 2 year contract - which btw was a match of the Lions offer?  Neither team was looking at Brown as anything more than a ST player that added vet depth at RB for 1 year.  LA was willing to let him seek out a contract with another team in the first place when they could have upped him without going through the RFA process - that’s an indicator of how much extended value they put on Brown.  He was a relatively cheap match that helps the team as a whole.

 

As far as RB talent?  I don’t know how people watch Henderson and then think Brown has equal or more talent at RB.  Again, people will point to Henderson’s game last week and dig in on that he can’t run inside.  Were those same people also aware that LA started rookies on the O-line last week (and didn’t have their starters in this week either) and that the lack of rushing production was a result of a lack of quality depth on the O-line?  Henderson has been getting met in the backfield by D linemen on plays, sometimes by waves of D linemen.  Put him behind the starting O line and let’s see if he can or can’t run OT to OT in the NFL.  And all the Rams RBs have had the same problem to date.  Their team ypa is atrocious right now.  There simply isn’t anywhere for any RB to go.

 

I find it difficult to believe that Brown is going to have any FF value whatsoever (as in, offering up at least 6 FFPPG) barring a serious injury to Gurley.  There are better flyers to be taken late in drafts.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Henderson definitely has more standalone value with Gurley healthy. If gurley gets shut down I think Brown gets the early downs and Henderson will get a bit more work too. Think itll be a 50/50 hot hand approach without Todd

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On 8/18/2019 at 8:33 AM, Bronco Billy said:

 

 

I find it difficult to believe that Brown is going to have any FF value whatsoever (as in, offering up at least 6 FFPPG) barring a serious injury to Gurley.  There are better flyers to be taken late in drafts.

Agree with the first sentence. Disagree with the second sentence. You take flyers at the end of the draft for people who have little immediate value but who are only an injury or suspension away from having high value. Brown makes sense because he's a RB on a high scoring offense behind a RB whose likelihood of injury is very high. Henderson has more standalone value, Brown has more handcuff value. The stand alone value isn't that exciting for either one, if Gurley's out there. Henderson is an electrifying boom or bust borderline flex with not much volume but a chance for a splash play or two if Gurley's starting. The handcuff value is what you're drafting Brown late as a flyer for. And that's good value at very little cost. One of the better flyers to be had in or near the last round. 

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I feel like he has to be a top cuff out there.

 

Gurley went for 98 yards, but he wasn't out there a lot at all...something is definitely not "100%"

I have Pollard, and thinking of dropping him for Brown. Brown is one injury away from the #1rb on a top offensive team, a la CJ Anderson

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Top handcuff at the moment. Gurley does not look like a sure thing to last the whole season

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This guy is having a ton of movement on Yahoo, but not much talk here. How is everyone valuing him as a waiver pickup?

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He seems like a dart throw to win you a week or lose it. Great advice I know! I would pick him up if he was available in my league as a Rams fan who watches him every week but Gurley turned it on in the 2nd half

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Drafted him in the last round when everyone was high on Henderson as the cuff.  Brown was re-signed in the offseason and sat with the starters thru the preseason for a reason.  His usage today confirmed to me that he's the cuff to own for gurley.  Got a ton of RZ carries too.  Don't know if you can play him until Gurley's knees give out but you have to love how he was used today, esp considering Gurley won't ever be "healthier" this season than he was today.

Edited by TheINC

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Apparently the Rams didn't know what to expect from Gurley, given that they basically kept him in a bubble during preseason. They didn't want to expose Gurley no matter the circumstances. Similar like the Cowboys did with Zeke. Given that Gurley looked very good, he will get a bigger chunk of the pie moving forward. Probably not what he used to get, but imo it will be close. Remember this was just the season opener.

That said, Brown is one of the few premier handcuffs. Will be tough to get him from WW if he isn't already owned.

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Think he's worth burning a #1 waiver on?

Edited by scheibler
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Personally, i do feel he's worthy.   I haven't looked at the full landscape yet in my league but right now i think he's the guy.   In my case i'll need a WR for sure because of Hill.  

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7 hours ago, scheibler said:

Think he's worth burning a #1 waiver on?

Contemplating this. Does he have stand alone value even if Gurley plays? 

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4 minutes ago, Minnesota_Jack said:

Contemplating this. Does he have stand alone value even if Gurley plays? 

 

Hard to say. Not sure if Game 1 is going to be the norm or Rams were looking to slowly increase Gurley's workload as the season progresses.

If this is the norm, then he's a RB3/Desperation Flex. 

Edited by WaiverLooter

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32 minutes ago, Minnesota_Jack said:

Contemplating this. Does he have stand alone value even if Gurley plays? 

If this is a split backfield with both getting 50/50 then I would say yes. Especially with Brown taking the goal line work. If you can, I would add him for his upside alone, no one knows if Gurleys knee will last.

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The question is... while the touches look similar (closer to 50:50)... Gurley still made 70% of the snaps...

However, this is week 1... Is Gurley going to be any healthier than week 1??

Unless a shallow league, I doubt any Gurley owner will miss out the chance on cuffing the premier backup RB.

I personally do not own Gurley, but i do own Brown from the last draft pick... I'm holding based on the "game changing" capability should something happen to Gurley.

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