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Malcolm Brown 2019 Outlook

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24 minutes ago, Mr.STD said:

 

But he wasn't really hurt in the conventional sense, he has a degenerative issue with his knee(s). It's not like some rest cured his arthritis.

 

this ^

"Jay Ajayi to the white courtesy phone, plz!"

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5 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

I don’t know, he only got 21 snaps (27%) to Gurley’s 54 snaps (70%). Sure, he’s a must handcuff and add in case of a Gurley injury. But stand alone value? Without the GL vultures, you’re not gonna get much production with a 27% snap count. Not to mention Henderson only had 2 snaps and he’s bound to get more. 

 

1.) henderson was the touts' favorite until week 1. LOL

2.) what if the role grows because he played well??

3.) never say never in Fantasy Football... proven year after year

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5 minutes ago, Szer0 said:

 

1.) henderson was the touts' favorite until week 1. LOL

2.) what if the role grows because he played well??

3.) never say never in Fantasy Football... proven year after year

 

Malcolm Brown is in his 4th year as an LA Ram its not like Sean McVay is all the sudden going to realize that he's good at running the football. He is what he is.

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13 minutes ago, Szer0 said:

 

1.) henderson was the touts' favorite until week 1. LOL

2.) what if the role grows because he played well??

3.) never say never in Fantasy Football... proven year after year

 

1. So you’re saying 2 snaps is it this year. From their 3rd round pick. Ok. 

 

2. Or what if Gurley’s role expands to prior Gurley? Or stays at 70% but Henderson gets a couple more than 2 snaps?

 

3. I never said never. I’m just saying I wouldn’t bet on stand alone value. 

Edited by Sonny_D

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8 minutes ago, genya said:

 

Malcolm Brown is in his 4th year as an LA Ram its not like Sean McVay is all the sudden going to realize that he's good at running the football. He is what he is.

 

And why would Brown get any burn back then... when they arguably had the best back (GURLEY) in football beasting it . Think about it . Before the arthritic knee issues came up.

Edited by RunCMC
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5 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

And why would Brown get any burn back then... when they arguably had the best back (GURLEY) in football beasting it . Think about it . Before the arthritic knee issues came up.

 

They're Rams were trying to scale back Gurley a bit, not denying that but it doesn't make Brown good. A lot of the conversation here is about Brown having standalone value and I don't think he does. He has a career 4.1 YPC and got his 2nd and 3rd career touchdowns on Sunday. He was in for 21 snaps.

 

The Rams had 13 drives on Sunday and they very clearly gave drives to Gurley and Brown separately.

Drive 1,2 and 3 all Gurley

Drive 4 was Brown, starting at the Carolina 10 yard line and he got a TD on 2 carries

Drive 5 Gurley

Drive 6 Brown

Halftime

Drive 7 Gurley

Drive 8 Brown (75 yard touchdown drive)

Drive 9 (3 play drive ending in pick, cant tell)

Drive 10,11,12 Gurley (was pulled in red zone for Henderson in 10)

 

By my count that's 3 drives that Brown got all to himself. There's no standalone value there warranting a significant FAAB investment. Even if Gurley sits out we don't know what that split is going to look like, so his handcuff value is not that certain because they also have a 3rd round rookie RB on the roster who was highly touted (64% owned on Yahoo).

 

For the record I have Gurley and i wouldn't bid more than 8% on Brown and purely as a handcuff value. I wouldn't start him unless the Rams play Miami or something.

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2 hours ago, genya said:

 

They're Rams were trying to scale back Gurley a bit, not denying that but it doesn't make Brown good. A lot of the conversation here is about Brown having standalone value and I don't think he does. He has a career 4.1 YPC and got his 2nd and 3rd career touchdowns on Sunday. He was in for 21 snaps.

 

The Rams had 13 drives on Sunday and they very clearly gave drives to Gurley and Brown separately.

Drive 1,2 and 3 all Gurley

Drive 4 was Brown, starting at the Carolina 10 yard line and he got a TD on 2 carries

Drive 5 Gurley

Drive 6 Brown

Halftime

Drive 7 Gurley

Drive 8 Brown (75 yard touchdown drive)

Drive 9 (3 play drive ending in pick, cant tell)

Drive 10,11,12 Gurley (was pulled in red zone for Henderson in 10)

 

By my count that's 3 drives that Brown got all to himself. There's no standalone value there warranting a significant FAAB investment. Even if Gurley sits out we don't know what that split is going to look like, so his handcuff value is not that certain because they also have a 3rd round rookie RB on the roster who was highly touted (64% owned on Yahoo).

 

For the record I have Gurley and i wouldn't bid more than 8% on Brown and purely as a handcuff value. I wouldn't start him unless the Rams play Miami or something.

Guy just doesnt get it folks, we’ve done all we can!  What else can I say, but you dont have to go home but you can’t stay here

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1 minute ago, dakimbell said:

Guy just doesnt get it folks, we’ve done all we can!  What else can I say, but you dont have to go home but you can’t stay here

Why I stopped answering...

We can argue back and forth...

But... we can't tell the future...

So far... this guy is a lotto tix... we aren't alone in thinking so

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11 minutes ago, dakimbell said:

Guy just doesnt get it folks, we’ve done all we can!  What else can I say, but you dont have to go home but you can’t stay here

 

Im trying to bring some reason into this discussion where a lot of people are just buying because of the 2TDs and 17 points scored but you do you.

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7 hours ago, dakimbell said:

Even after filtering out any potential TD’s? Disagreed

15 carries for 60 yards, 2 catches for 10 yards is all you need to get to 8pts.  Doesnt look like elite RB numbers.  Any potent offense can produce a rb with these numbers.

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6 hours ago, genya said:

 

Im trying to bring some reason into this discussion where a lot of people are just buying because of the 2TDs and 17 points scored but you do you.

 

I think you’re missing the fact that the main reason people are buying is that he’s an elite handcuff to a guy with serious injury issues. The fact that he actually has some(albeit moderate) stand-alone value is just gravy. No I wouldn’t be super excited about starting him with Gurley in the picture but the fact I could if I was in a bind with some hope for a good game is a great bonus and makes stashing and waiting much easier.

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10 hours ago, gus030 said:

Will be funny when Henderson starts blowing up midseason

rams don’t spend a 3rd round pick on a major talent to sit him all year

 

They also don't match another teams offer and not risk injury during preseason not to use Malcom. I'm not worried about Henderson, he did not look impressive in preseason. Henderson looks like COP rb at best this yr

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Coming at this situation as a non Gurley owning, Brown owner: the real value in Brown is IF Gurley goes down. <in that scenario, Brown suddenly becomes an RB1/possible league winner.

Hold and view Brown as a potential RB1. The appearance of present standalone alone value of an RB2/Flex is certainly nice and may be useful (IMHO Gurley is being managed in-season so he can be utilized to his full extent come post season), but don't let that be your "value" point. The Gurley owner needs to realize this aspect and pay accordingly, otherwise, they can just sit nervously on their Gurley share all season; rather have a potential RB1 on my squad than move him for what a mere handcuff would return in trade.

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1 hour ago, owenmills said:

 

I think you’re missing the fact that the main reason people are buying is that he’s an elite handcuff to a guy with serious injury issues. The fact that he actually has some(albeit moderate) stand-alone value is just gravy. No I wouldn’t be super excited about starting him with Gurley in the picture but the fact I could if I was in a bind with some hope for a good game is a great bonus and makes stashing and waiting much easier.

This is why I picked up Mattison last week and will hold on the end of bench. High-end handcuff with RB1 potential and some stand alone value. There aren’t many out there that can step into that role if called upon. Most are all timeshare injury or not. 

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6 hours ago, FollowTheLeader said:

Coming at this situation as a non Gurley owning, Brown owner: the real value in Brown is IF Gurley goes down. <in that scenario, Brown suddenly becomes an RB1/possible league winner.

Hold and view Brown as a potential RB1. The appearance of present standalone alone value of an RB2/Flex is certainly nice and may be useful (IMHO Gurley is being managed in-season so he can be utilized to his full extent come post season), but don't let that be your "value" point. The Gurley owner needs to realize this aspect and pay accordingly, otherwise, they can just sit nervously on their Gurley share all season; rather have a potential RB1 on my squad than move him for what a mere handcuff would return in trade.

TITCR

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13 hours ago, owenmills said:

 

I think you’re missing the fact that the main reason people are buying is that he’s an elite handcuff to a guy with serious injury issues. The fact that he actually has some(albeit moderate) stand-alone value is just gravy. No I wouldn’t be super excited about starting him with Gurley in the picture but the fact I could if I was in a bind with some hope for a good game is a great bonus and makes stashing and waiting much easier.

 

I don't think I'm missing it I just disagree with the premise. For a handcuff to be elite he has to have some kind of talent (i.e. "elite"). If you consider the league winning/RB1 handcuffs that worked out in the past few years:

Chubb 2018

Jordan Connor 2018

Kamara 2017

Jordan Howard 2016 [5.1 YPC that year]

they have one thing among them... they were/are really good. All 4 are at least starter material in those years and after. Malcolm Brown is not that. He has a career YPC of 4.1. His longest run of his career is 20 yards (Gurley had a 25 yard run last Sunday). He has 117 career touches for Sean McVay and 3 TDs to show for it, two of them this past Sunday. His best offer in the offseason from Detroit was still for a backup RB role, so none of the 32 teams obviously considered him for a starter role.

The prevailing opinion seems to be that Brown would get a 90%+ snap share to warrant his elite RB1 status if Gurley goes down but I don't see why McVay would do that. The only thing supporting that is that he got 21 snaps behind Gurley in week 1, but, we don't know if McVay would want Brown to carry a full load, or if he thinks that Brown is good enough to carry a full load. I don't think McVay is just going to just hand the keys to the offense to Brown. There's another decent RB on the roster where they may split carries, or the Rams might sign or trade for a CJ Anderson like player who balls out.

There have been plenty of cases over the past few years where highly valued handcuffs fell flat in their starting role (Ekeler 2018) or had to split carries (Tevin Coleman 2018), or coaches went in a different direction that what most thought (Alfred Morris/McFadden). I think this is one of those cases, hence I think that spending 20+% of FAAB with that risk is unwise. I'd much rather have Henderson for free once hes dropped this week. He might be good enough to actually carry the load.

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hopefully i can cash in this ticket, prioritized him over hockenson even though my TE is oj howard and put up a goose. if malcom can account to something it’ll make my decision that much better and less regret

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12 minutes ago, brosephd said:

hopefully i can cash in this ticket, prioritized him over hockenson even though my TE is oj howard and put up a goose. if malcom can account to something it’ll make my decision that much better and less regret

I afraid you made a huge mistake. Should have gotten Hock,, The Rams are ramping up Gurleys workload. It’s going to be a 70/20/10 timeshare in week 4. Hope he has a good game and changes the narrative but I can’t see them underutilizing Gurley purposely I’m very confident they are giving him the Zeke treatment with the limited preseason. Sorry pal.

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Actual fact of the matter is that no one actually knows what the staff’s intentions are for this backfield. You can pretend you do, but it’s hot air. All you can do for now is view Brown as a highly valuable stash/cuff. 

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Gurley did not practice yesterday and will only practice 2 days a week according to McVay? Malcolm Brown keeps looking better and better.... small sample size but week 2 will definitely confirm the usage for both. I expect a good game for both RB's especially since we saw the Texans put 180 rushing yards against the saints.  

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On 9/13/2019 at 1:40 PM, Krambone said:

 I can’t see them underutilizing Gurley purposely

 

It's like you haven't even been paying attention.....

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