dboong

2019-20 Sleepers and and Busts

Recommended Posts

Loved this thread a few years back and so made one last year as well. as far as i know , no one has made one yet this season. Apologies if they have and please merge or delete this

 

Love a good sleeper and DND/Bust list.

i Normally do a little write up but i CBF this year.

 

Sleepers

I.Thomas and I.Smith, Brogdon, Favors, SGA, Herro, Saric, Bryant, Huerter, Ball, MIles Bridge, Looney

 

Busts

Anyone with any sort of injury history, sick of being burnt,

 

Keeping this short as i know everyone has a different opinion, who have we got.

Will update a list as we go

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If anyone with ANY injury history is a bust then I suppose there’s about twenty guys you’re targeting. And Ingles has to be a second round pick given that he’s the only player inside the top 100 who hasn’t missed a game in three years.  

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

If anyone with ANY injury history is a bust then I suppose there’s about twenty guys you’re targeting. And Ingles has to be a second round pick given that he’s the only player inside the top 100 who hasn’t missed a game in three years.  

Agreed and I would actually argue the opposite, guys nicked up with injuries last season will be huge bargains/sleepers this year.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I have always been in trouble to understand who is "sleeper". For example in the list of Dboong Favors, Ball, Brogdon or Bryant can't be sleepers because almost everybody here knows their probable value. If they are sleepers then I add Delon Wright and Terry Rozier, but I also can't be sure are they real sleepers or not.

Edited by apatas
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

barton maybe potential sleeper and bounce back candidate,he had a horrendous season mainly due to injury,but he is healthy now,he is starter sf in denver and will play high 20 to low 30 minutes,he is the second ball handler and can create his own shot,if he can build up his confidence,he can putting up around top 60-80 value

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hate these lists because everyone chooses the same 10 guys and then they’re no longer sleepers.  And anyone who might actually be considered a sleeper in my leagues is digging too deep.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I hate these lists because everyone chooses the same 10 guys and then they’re no longer sleepers.  And anyone who might actually be considered a sleeper in my leagues is digging too deep.

That was also my point. If many people agree that player A or B is a sleeper, then he is not anymore a sleeper. Everybody has his own ranking list and there he have some individual sleepers, but there can't be sleepers for everybody.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, kane said:

barton maybe potential sleeper and bounce back candidate,he had a horrendous season mainly due to injury,but he is healthy now,he is starter sf in denver and will play high 20 to low 30 minutes,he is the second ball handler and can create his own shot,if he can build up his confidence,he can putting up around top 60-80 value

Same applies to Barton's teammate Gary Harris. He was putting up top 50-ish value 2 seasons ago when healthy.  

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, perkinsfor3 said:

Sleepers and Break Out Candidates for Fantasy Basketball in 2019-2020

 

Here are my initial breakout candidates and sleepers for 2019-2020.

D – Dynasty target: Some of these players might be roadblocked to start the season. However, they present a lot of upside and could start pushing the incumbents for playing time after a few months, see an increased role as soon as they show they’re up for it, or see increased playing time late in the season. 
B – Breakout candidate: These players all have a chance to break out this season. Be it due to increased playing time, increased touches and responsibility or change of scenery – keep an eye on them!
S – Sleeper: These players might not have a full breakout, but are potentially going to be underdrafted. They tend to come at a low price and could be a make-or-break asset for championship runs. 

Atlanta Hawks

Bruno Fernando – I 100% believe Bruno is going to be the starter at the end of this season. Alex Len put up some stats (shot a lot of threes) late last season, but no way that’s an indication of what’s to come. Len doesn’t have that range, and didn’t play all that well, even though he got the minutes. Enter Bruno. The Hawks did trade for Damian Jones but he’s not very good. Spellmann leaving to GSW only frees up more minutes. Bruno has some range, and good drive and nice pull up, and is strong as an ox. Having shown steady improvement in college, he’s got a lot of upside. S D

Kevin Huerter – Came along quite nicely as the season progressed, and has upside in pts, threes, rebounds, assists and steals. Good size for a SG and could be a great second or third option on an improving Atlanta Hawks team. I’m a fan in dynasty settings. B D 

Brooklyn Nets

Rodions Kurucs – Should be able to carve out a nice role in the Nets rotation going forward. Started over 40 games last season, Very up & down in production, but I see a lot of upside for him. He’s from 1998, so extremely young, but could start producing across the board this season. Don’t see a lot of weaknesses in his fantasy game, yet his summer league performance left a lot to be desired. B

Joe Harris – He is what he is, but at the same time, that’s him being a damn good shooter. When scouting for threes, I always want my players to provide some help in FG too, if possible. Joe hits almost 2.5 threes a game, while shooting at a 50% clip from the field. That’s a mighty good combo. His rebounds and ast are merely ok for a SF and his steals numbers leave much to be desired, capping his value a bit. Still, I’d have Harris over guys like Justin Holiday all day. S

More here:

https://perkinsfor3.wordpress.com/2019/07/16/sleepers-and-break-out-candidates-for-fantasy-basketball-in-2019-2020/

 

Comprehensive as always puzzbetersonperkinsfor3. Love your work man! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like that list too. Separating breakout players and sleepers (I view sleepers as underdrafted players) is nice since potential breakout players such as Bam Adebayo and Thomas Bryant might get hyped a lot and overdrafted when the season starts. Neither of them seem to be picked very early on ESPN yet though, but a lot of the ESPN public leagues are not very competitive.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tdye said:

I like that list too. Separating breakout players and sleepers (I view sleepers as underdrafted players) is nice since potential breakout players such as Bam Adebayo and Thomas Bryant might get hyped a lot and overdrafted when the season starts. Neither of them seem to be picked very early on ESPN yet though, but a lot of the ESPN public leagues are not very competitive.

 

It's because the ESPN rankings are a joke and have them around the 130 mark. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Potential busts based on their ADP

 

Doncic

Trae

Ayton

Lebron

Jokic 

Vucevic

Siakam

M Robinson

Donovan Mitchell

Jaren Jackson Jr

 

Sleepers based on ADP

Brook Lopez

Sexton

WCJ

Nance

Brogdon

Edited by Fantasyscrub
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At #24,Is Vucevic a potential bust?Why?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

Potential busts based on their ADP

 

Doncic

Trae

Ayton

Lebron

Jokic 

Vucevic

Siakam

M Robinson

Donovan Mitchell

Jaren Jackson Jr

 

Sleepers based on ADP

Brook Lopez

Sexton

WCJ

Nance

Brogdon

LBJ maybe father time Jokic JJJ hilarious.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Auction>Snake said:

LBJ maybe father time Jokic JJJ hilarious.

 

Jokic is being taken 6th or 7th.  The nuggets are completely stacked and he can easily fall to 15-25 rank for the season.  I think his average rank was something like 13th last season.  I don't know about you but I wouldn't want my top 7 pick putting up long stretches being ranked in the 20s and 30s.

 

JJJ is being taken in the 3rd or 4th round.  He can easily only average a paltry 16-6 with 1.5 blocks.  That's not what I want from a top 35-40 pick.

 

Obviously they are both going to be solid and put up consistent statlines but I think both have a strong chance of being drafted 10-15 spots ahead of where they finish the season

Edited by Fantasyscrub
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

Potential busts based on their ADP

 

Doncic

Trae

Ayton

Lebron

Jokic 

Vucevic

Siakam

M Robinson

Donovan Mitchell

Jaren Jackson Jr

 

Sleepers based on ADP

Brook Lopez

Sexton

WCJ

Nance

Brogdon

 

 

I'll explain my reasoning

Potential busts based on their ADP

 

Doncic - ranked top 20 on yahoo but can very easily finish outside the top 90 due to his terrible efficiency

Trae - same as Doncic.  Low stocks and low efficiency can see him finish outside top 50 although the risk of being a bust is a bit less with him since he can hit free throws

Ayton - taken top 30 and he's a solid big but he plays for the suns and I don't see him taking any huge leaps

Lebron - 35 years old, injury prone, can't hit fts, turnover prone.  Shouldn't be taken top 6

Jokic - see above

Vucevic - actually love his game and will be looking for him in drafts but I don't see him replicating a 21-12-4-1-1 season.  Last season was a contract year so be careful about that. Still, if he's available at 25, take him but be wary that he might fall down to about 18-9 again

Siakam - top 35 and the least bust risk on this list along with Vucevic but the hype is real

M Robinson - Knicks have 6 power forwards and Fizdale is the coach.  nuff said.  He's being taken top 25 but can easily give you nothing more than 9-9 with 2.8 blocks

Donovan Mitchell - top 35 but should finish around 60 on the season

Jaren Jackson Jr - see above

 

Sleepers based on ADP

Brook Lopez - 60ish rank but he's a MONSTER and the reason I won my league last year.  2+ threes, 2+ blocks, high ft, zero turnovers, and a decent 5 boards a game.  League winner to be honest and should be prioritized

Sexton - he's 110+ rank but this dude can average 24-3-3 with 2 threes this coming season.  Beast and another reason I won last year

WCJ - 90 rank but there was a stretch where he was a top 40 player.  Off season training with the team will help him mesh with Lauri.  Can see him getting 14-7-1.8 blocks

Nance - love this guy.  If Love and/or Thompson leave the team through injury or trade, this dude can put up top 25 lines with ease.  Steals, assists, rebounds, blocks, and even the occasional three on high efficiency

Brogdon - incredible efficiency and the lack of Oladipo + new team means he can breakout in a big way

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

 

I'll explain my reasoning

Potential busts based on their ADP

 

Doncic - ranked top 20 on yahoo but can very easily finish outside the top 90 due to his terrible efficiency

Trae - same as Doncic.  Low stocks and low efficiency can see him finish outside top 50 although the risk of being a bust is a bit less with him since he can hit free throws

Ayton - taken top 30 and he's a solid big but he plays for the suns and I don't see him taking any huge leaps

Lebron - 35 years old, injury prone, can't hit fts, turnover prone.  Shouldn't be taken top 6

Jokic - see above

Vucevic - actually love his game and will be looking for him in drafts but I don't see him replicating a 21-12-4-1-1 season.  Last season was a contract year so be careful about that. Still, if he's available at 25, take him but be wary that he might fall down to about 18-9 again

Siakam - top 35 and the least bust risk on this list along with Vucevic but the hype is real

M Robinson - Knicks have 6 power forwards and Fizdale is the coach.  nuff said.  He's being taken top 25 but can easily give you nothing more than 9-9 with 2.8 blocks

Donovan Mitchell - top 35 but should finish around 60 on the season

Jaren Jackson Jr - see above

 

Sleepers based on ADP

Brook Lopez - 60ish rank but he's a MONSTER and the reason I won my league last year.  2+ threes, 2+ blocks, high ft, zero turnovers, and a decent 5 boards a game.  League winner to be honest and should be prioritized

Sexton - he's 110+ rank but this dude can average 24-3-3 with 2 threes this coming season.  Beast and another reason I won last year

WCJ - 90 rank but there was a stretch where he was a top 40 player.  Off season training with the team will help him mesh with Lauri.  Can see him getting 14-7-1.8 blocks

Nance - love this guy.  If Love and/or Thompson leave the team through injury or trade, this dude can put up top 25 lines with ease.  Steals, assists, rebounds, blocks, and even the occasional three on high efficiency

Brogdon - incredible efficiency and the lack of Oladipo + new team means he can breakout in a big way

Not sure I really agree with you on Ayton, Vuce, and Jokic. The others I can see but with these three, I believe they are pretty solid. Ayton was a rookie last season, playing under a coach who had no idea how to use him properly, and the team had no real PG. He still put up 16 and 10. I don't see any scenario where he doesn't improve upon those numbers with a real PG, a new HC, and more experience in the league. In fact, I think he puts up 20/12 this year. He didn't get the same hype as Doncic or Trae last season, but for fantasy, he is far superior. Vuce and Jokic everyone knows, so no need for as much explanation, but they are solid. Vuce has the team to himself and is still in his 20s, he will be great again. Same with Jokic. It's his team, and even though they have great depth, he makes the team go. The offense runs through him. He'll get his numbers. 

 

I like your sleeper list a lot. All of the names I agree with except Sexton. Not a fan. Other than that, good list. I will add to WCJ, I think your statline is a little conservative with him. I could see him at 16/9, maybe 16/10 with, the same amount of blocks. This kid is the real deal but like Ayton, didn't get much love last year playing on a bad team. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to add, while I really, really like Jackson and his game, I see a Myles Turner type hype around him that could lead to disappointment. They are very similar players actually. It's too early to say yet but it looks like JJJ won't be a big time rebounder, something that has held Turner back as well. But both are great defenders that protect the rim, can switch on anyone, shoot the 3, and impact the game in multiple ways. Better real life players than fantasy players, at least at this point. Big men who don't rebound just really frustrate me, I don't know why. That holds them back in fantasy though.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I agree but Yahoo has Ayton ranked at 25th?  Not going to happen.  I wouldn't label Vucevic as a bust but he was in a contract year and will most definitely not put up 20-12-4 again.  I see his minutes and usage dipping down a bit with Isaac and Bamba taking on bigger roles.  Vucevic is definitely a safe pick in the top 25.

I think Sexton will surprise a lot of people.  Post all star break, he put up averages of 21-2-3 with 2.4 threes, 48/82 shooting, 0.6 steals.  I'll take that line any day on a 120th pick and he'll improve on those numbers going into his 2nd year.  Steals and assists need work but  I am really targeting him.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

Just to add, while I really, really like Jackson and his game, I see a Myles Turner type hype around him that could lead to disappointment. They are very similar players actually. It's too early to say yet but it looks like JJJ won't be a big time rebounder, something that has held Turner back as well. But both are great defenders that protect the rim, can switch on anyone, shoot the 3, and impact the game in multiple ways. Better real life players than fantasy players, at least at this point. Big men who don't rebound just really frustrate me, I don't know why. That holds them back in fantasy though.

I agree. Sort of...Turner’s blocks are so valuable that he’s pretty much guaranteed top 35 no matter how bad his rebounding is.  The periphery stats: strong FG/To, FT that doesn’t hurt, a three, etc is what puts him into top 25 discussion.  Or look at BroLo.  Stocks are significantly more valuable than rebounds, one single block is worth significantly more than 5 rebounds.  So yeah if Turner got over 10 rebounds then he’d be in first round discussion and it’s frustrating that he hasn’t. JJJ is worse in redraft in every possible way so I think he’s outside the top 35 discussion.  I would start considering him in the fourth, depending on whoever else was available.  Considering that’s already lower than most, I agree he’s overrated. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I agree. Sort of...Turner’s blocks are so valuable that he’s pretty much guaranteed top 35 no matter how bad his rebounding is.  The periphery stats: strong FG/To, FT that doesn’t hurt, a three, etc is what puts him into top 25 discussion.  Or look at BroLo.  Stocks are significantly more valuable than rebounds, one single block is worth significantly more than 5 rebounds.  So yeah if Turner got over 10 rebounds then he’d be in first round discussion and it’s frustrating that he hasn’t. JJJ is worse in redraft in every possible way so I think he’s outside the top 35 discussion.  I would start considering him in the fourth, depending on whoever else was available.  Considering that’s already lower than most, I agree he’s overrated. 

 

2.7 is an outlier, I see that dipping to 2.3 this season.  I owned Turner a few seasons ago when he only averaged 12-6-1.8 and it was an exercise in frustration.  Proceed with caution on that guy, he has limited offensive and rebounding skills 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

2.7 is an outlier, I see that dipping to 2.3 this season.  I owned Turner a few seasons ago when he only averaged 12-6-1.8 and it was an exercise in frustration.  Proceed with caution on that guy, he has limited offensive and rebounding skills 

You could be correct.  But it’s too early to tell.  He seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s only 23.  Perhaps he will get fewer blocks, but overall I see his stock rising. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...