dboong

2019-20 Sleepers and and Busts

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Just now, tdye said:

Definitely Zeller over Willy. I had bought in to Zeller as a potential top-75 guy despite injury risk, but now he is a load management risk as well. Apparently he is sitting games in back-to-backs, and he could sit a lot with minor injuries with the Hornets tanking (or at least not competing for a playoff spot).

I was going to trade Noel for him in a 20 team dynasty ( 9cat H2H), but probably won't now. But that is also a weekly league (so missing games intermittently hurts worse), and there is a 5 trade limit per year (I have used 3 already and want to save my last 2).

I think his ADP is reasonable, maybe a little low. But I think calling him a sleeper is fine if you think he will be a top-50 or so player like he showed potential at the start of last year. He hasn't had a great full season yet.

Yeah, I was big on Zeller before the preseason, despite his obvious shaky history.  However, his preseason has been so mediocre that he's just another $1 flyer to me now.

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7 minutes ago, LosingEffort said:

After this preseason I say Anfernee Simons again

Finally we saw the Lillard-Simons-McCollum lineup

 

Yes its going to happen...if you can't stop anyone you might as well try to outscore them

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What is going on with ADPs from ESPN roto leagues?

Ben Simmons: 10.5

Pascal Siakam: 14.1

Montrezl Harrell: 41.4

DeAndre Jordan: 53.1

I confidently predict none of these hit those draft positions in value without punting multiple categories. Of course, these guys won't go that early in competitive leagues, and their Yahoo ADP is more reasonable. (25.5,29.5,81.9,98.1).

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54 minutes ago, tdye said:

What is going on with ADPs from ESPN roto leagues?

Ben Simmons: 10.5

Pascal Siakam: 14.1

Montrezl Harrell: 41.4

DeAndre Jordan: 53.1

I confidently predict none of these hit those draft positions in value without punting multiple categories. Of course, these guys won't go that early in competitive leagues, and their Yahoo ADP is more reasonable. (25.5,29.5,81.9,98.1).


Do those ADPs include points leagues?  Still too high for most of them, but makes more sense if that's the case.  

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2 hours ago, tdye said:

What is going on with ADPs from ESPN roto leagues?

Ben Simmons: 10.5

Pascal Siakam: 14.1

Montrezl Harrell: 41.4

DeAndre Jordan: 53.1

I confidently predict none of these hit those draft positions in value without punting multiple categories. Of course, these guys won't go that early in competitive leagues, and their Yahoo ADP is more reasonable. (25.5,29.5,81.9,98.1).

 

ESPN is garbage. I hate playing on that site. RoCo is ranked 111.. Come on now... 

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22 hours ago, LosingEffort said:

After this preseason I say Anfernee Simons again

Finally we saw the Lillard-Simons-McCollum lineup

 

I like his talent, but experimenting with lineups in preseason ≠ regular season lineups. If you need a per minute scorer he should be ok for some cheap points at the end of the draft, I just don't see the need to go gaga over a few preseason scoring lines - one of which (his best line) came when he was starting against Maccabi Haifa. Coby White is doing the same thing over for Chicago and no one is talking about him.

Are you going to tell me that Moritz Wagner is now the starting PF for Washington? 

That Chris Boucher is going to start at Center for the Toronto Raptors?

I can go on and on here..

Let's see if it happens during the regular season. The idea of 6'3 CJ McCollum at SF is pretty scary, they're going to get eaten on the block by big strong SFs. Your average SF is between 6'6 to 6'11.. They'll now have 6 foot Lillard defending shooting guards? I'm sorry but he's not Fred Van Vleet. 

I can see it in spurts when they want to quicken the pace and get on some fast scoring runs, but it's not going to be for long stretches or in every single game.

 

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6 hours ago, Kriggly said:


Do those ADPs include points leagues? 

 

Yes

ESPN also has Simmonds ranked 9 and Siakem 10 in their pre draft rankings which would be a contributing factor

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Fizdale is favouring Payton to start the point. Probs worth a flier on your last pick if you are short on assists.

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i had Wendell Carter Jr. and Kevin Huerter for my 7th and 8th pick, did i picked them way too early for a sleeper?

i was worried that they will be gone on 9th and 10th round considering that we are a 16 team league

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Just now, hudasknow said:

i had Wendell Carter Jr. and Kevin Huerter for my 7th and 8th pick, did i picked them way too early for a sleeper?

i was worried that they will be gone on 9th and 10th round considering that we are a 16 team league

Not at all. Wendall falling to 7th I would consider that a steal in a 16man league. And grabbing Huerter at 8th wasn't a reach at all. I have him projected hopefully to be in the top100

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3 hours ago, hudasknow said:

i had Wendell Carter Jr. and Kevin Huerter for my 7th and 8th pick, did i picked them way too early for a sleeper?

i was worried that they will be gone on 9th and 10th round considering that we are a 16 team league


wendell no, huerter no considering it’s 16 team. That being said, generally you don’t need to reach unless you really want a guy and absolutely believe they will outplay their adp.

I’ve done at least 40 mocks plus my real draft and he actually slips into the 11th a bunch and almost always gets taken at his round (in 12 man).

One of the reasons is yahoo gave him a really ugly projection, his percentages look nasty on there, so people don’t buy in and they haven’t seen him in preseason, that’s what makes it better since you won’t have to ready to get him.

I stopped listening to RW podcasts because they would make you think every sleeper needs to be reached for otherwise you won’t get them, that fear creates anxiety around every single pick, and it messes up your draft because you’ll take guys at ridiculous rounds where they bring you zero value. 
 

You’re much better off just doing a bunch of mocks and you’ll get a good understanding of which sleepers people want, and which ones most don’t care about. 

Edited by Lifschitz
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3 hours ago, hudasknow said:

i had Wendell Carter Jr. and Kevin Huerter for my 7th and 8th pick, did i picked them way too early for a sleeper?

i was worried that they will be gone on 9th and 10th round considering that we are a 16 team league

7th and 8th for 16 deep is similar to 10/11 in 12 deep.  I don’t think anyone would consider those a stretch around pick 100+.  Particularly not Wendell 

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Collin Sexton I think deserves a call out here, if he hasn't already. Nobody will provide you high points on decent FG and high FT after pick 120. 

He has shown he can hit threes as well. I don't think Garland will impact him as much as people think. 

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4 minutes ago, SicarioSanity said:

Collin Sexton I think deserves a call out here, if he hasn't already. Nobody will provide you high points on decent FG and high FT after pick 120. 

He has shown he can hit threes as well. I don't think Garland will impact him as much as people think. 

I agree.  I think he can be around 19/3/3 with two threes.  He also said it's a goal to be a 90% FT shooter and I actually think he can do it.  That's not a stat that relies on others so if he sets his mind to it he can probably get there, or close to it.  I heard a podcast about how it's interesting that he was projected to me a 3 and D specialist but people had reservations about his scoring ability.  Last year in scored in bunches but no defense.  If he can get over one steal so his final line is 19/3/3 with 2 threes, 1 steal 45%/90% and can stay under 2.5 TOs then that's Jamal Murray territory.  He's not that far off as is.  I think he has top 100 potential.

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5 hours ago, IT2 said:

Fizdale is favouring Payton to start the point. Probs worth a flier on your last pick if you are short on assists.

 I would love for this to happen. but Id rather see Ntilikina

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6 hours ago, IT2 said:

Fizdale is favouring Payton to start the point. Probs worth a flier on your last pick if you are short on assists.

 

41 minutes ago, ellejamil said:

 I would love for this to happen. but Id rather see Ntilikina

 

I was under the impression that DSJ was the frontrunner and Fizdale hadn't decided yet:

https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-knicks/new-york-knicks-dennis-smith-jr-is-still-front-runner-for-starting-point-guard-spot/

https://nypost.com/2019/10/13/dennis-smith-jr-on-verge-of-igniting-knicks-roster-battle/

 

Fiz also said he dominated training camps before his sprain. Fiz also said this about DSJ recently:

Quote

“I feel like he can be a point guard. You’ve got to remember, in our league now, the point-guard spot is a scoring position,” Fizdale said. “I think it’s more scoring points now than it is distributors. He fits that mold of being a scoring point guard.”

 

 

So I think after Payton laid a goose egg in scoring in his last game, I'm kinda watching DSJ more than I'm watching Payton. He could defo be better than DSJ, but DSJ has stocks and 3s potential and if he's improved his shooting as reports suggested, he could have standard league value

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7 hours ago, s-kayos said:

 

 

I was under the impression that DSJ was the frontrunner and Fizdale hadn't decided yet:

https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-knicks/new-york-knicks-dennis-smith-jr-is-still-front-runner-for-starting-point-guard-spot/

https://nypost.com/2019/10/13/dennis-smith-jr-on-verge-of-igniting-knicks-roster-battle/

 

Fiz also said he dominated training camps before his sprain. Fiz also said this about DSJ recently:

 

 

So I think after Payton laid a goose egg in scoring in his last game, I'm kinda watching DSJ more than I'm watching Payton. He could defo be better than DSJ, but DSJ has stocks and 3s potential and if he's improved his shooting as reports suggested, he could have standard league value


Plus DSJ is only 21, whereas Payton has had major gaps in his game and has yet to fill them at 25.  If I were a rebuilding Knicks team I would see what I could get out of DSJ. 

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13 hours ago, Lifschitz said:


wendell no, huerter no considering it’s 16 team. That being said, generally you don’t need to reach unless you really want a guy and absolutely believe they will outplay their adp.

I’ve done at least 40 mocks plus my real draft and he actually slips into the 11th a bunch and almost always gets taken at his round (in 12 man).

One of the reasons is yahoo gave him a really ugly projection, his percentages look nasty on there, so people don’t buy in and they haven’t seen him in preseason, that’s what makes it better since you won’t have to ready to get him.

I stopped listening to RW podcasts because they would make you think every sleeper needs to be reached for otherwise you won’t get them, that fear creates anxiety around every single pick, and it messes up your draft because you’ll take guys at ridiculous rounds where they bring you zero value. 
 

You’re much better off just doing a bunch of mocks and you’ll get a good understanding of which sleepers people want, and which ones most don’t care about. 

Yea buddy. I hate all these articles and hate even more that RW put out a damn mock points draft exposing all these late ranked sleepers and taking them early. 

 

When you pay 2-3 extra rounds sooner than normal, it's really not a "steal" anymore 

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4 hours ago, Kriggly said:


Plus DSJ is only 21, whereas Payton has had major gaps in his game and has yet to fill them at 25.  If I were a rebuilding Knicks team I would see what I could get out of DSJ. 

You guys are making too much sense. But its Fizdale and the Knicks we are talking about here 😢 

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9 hours ago, Dominator83 said:

Yea buddy. I hate all these articles and hate even more that RW put out a damn mock points draft exposing all these late ranked sleepers and taking them early. 

 

When you pay 2-3 extra rounds sooner than normal, it's really not a "steal" anymore 

 

They've been doing this for the last 4-5 years, and a lot of this is spurred by Gallagher. He gets hyped on every single sleeper, he says you must take him 4-5 rounds higher if you want to get him, and then they all start jumping in because none of the "experts" want the other guys to have "their guy". It's become a joke, RW used to be a decently trusted source for info, now they're regularly WAY off on multiple sleepers to the point where it looks really dumb if anyone actually checks hindsight blurbs and columns. 

Gallagher had this funny thing last week where he sighed when he mentioned Marquese Chriss. Yeah you should sigh, you told people to take this guy in the 4th and 5th round of drafts, it was ******** insane. They did the same s--- with Anthony Randolph, Jamal Murray, James Johnson, Josh Richardson, Dennis Schroder, Aaron Gordon, and this year they're doing it with SGA. In their pod not too long ago they concluded unanimously that you must take SGA in the 3rd - 4th round if you want him, what?!?

In another pod they were discussing Jimmy Butler and just how good and solid he is, to which Gallagher noted that yeah I know he's good, but I just don't like players over a certain age. You mean you almost exclusively target first, second year, and third year players every season. He even mentioned several guys who were still in their prime in their late 20's and he found it to be egregious should anyone pick them because "they're too old". 

I'm really curious how he does in his standings in the pro leagues, I'm willing to bet he ends up dropping a lot of roster half way through the year or is having to hang onto sleepers for months because now he's handcuffed - their appeal is too good to let go, but their current production is a detriment to your team. I've been there, and I had a lot of the same philosophy he did about players, and it was killing my drafts and league results because I never used to draft like that. Now I'm back to taking a healthy mix of productive solid players and young sleepers (in the rounds where they should be logically taken), so phasing out any RW content has really helped me. 

To the earlier point about drafting mistakes from listening to their stuff, I ended up taking Dennis Schroder and Aaron Gordon 4 rounds higher than they were meant to go, it cost me big time. Aaron Gordon barely produced on fringe 100 value most of the year outside of the first month or so when he looked like a stud until he got injured (this was two years ago). They said Schroder is going to be one of the best PGs in the league. I ended up taking these guys in the 4th-5th rounds, I paid dearly. I surrounded KAT with bums who didn't pay out their actual round value. When I skimmed over my draft, I couldn't believe how many current successful players I passed up while other guys just took the BPAs and I reached for sleepers no one cared about.

Do mocks, I've only seen SGA go 5th round ONCE out of 40+ times. In my real draft last week he went in the 6th, that's about where he normally goes, and I've seen him go at 7 as well. 

What value is there in grabbing this guy like he's going to produce like a 2nd or 3rd rounder? You're betting with absolute certainty he has an unbelievable season, and that RARELY happens to 2nd year players unless they're phenoms (KAT, LeBron, AD, etc.). Even Giannis wasn't that great in his 2nd year.

Don't forget they talked up Schroder just like they're talking up SGA now.

I just can't take RW seriously anymore, they've lost a lot of credibility, they've even started giving 30% discounts on their draft guide (as far as I can recall they've never done this in the past), that's a red flag to me that they didn't get much interest in their content.

I enjoy their forums, I read their blurbs just to stay updated, but this year I've really held myself in check on not making any hasty moves prior to the season starting - I've drafted guys where they're supposed to be drafted, I've not made any rash decisions to go out and grab any of these rookies and sophs performing well in preseason (Wagner, Culver, Porter, Simons, etc.), so I'll just wait until the first month or so to assess where I sit, because from years of experience I know there'll be plenty of pickups and I don't need to make any hasty moves unless a guy really just shows out in the first week and you know he's going to be a stud for most of the season.

When you read what most people say around here, what you notice is that a lot of people win their leagues taking guys who are dropping in drafts who used to be popular, like Gallinari, or Tobias Harris. This year those guys will be Lowry or Horford. Let other people take Isaac in the top 50 while you sneak in the guy that performs well every season and people forget about (CJ McCollum for example - grossly underrated).

One trend I've noticed in recent years is that they flip flop on their blurbs all the time. Not sure whether its different writers or what, but one second they tell you go get this guy, and the next day they say leave him on the wire, it gets confusing with pickups.

Edited by Lifschitz
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14 hours ago, Kriggly said:


Plus DSJ is only 21, whereas Payton has had major gaps in his game and has yet to fill them at 25.  If I were a rebuilding Knicks team I would see what I could get out of DSJ. 

 

I don't think the Knicks plan this year is to rebuild, it's to win games. So I'm pretty sure whoever gives them the best chance to win will get the PT at point guard. 

They didn't bring in randle, Portis, Gibson and Morris to rebuild. Those guys clog up the PT for a kid like Knox. So that should tell you what their plan is for this year. 

With all that said, the log jam plus the ability if RJ to run the offense would lower my rankings of all the PG options.

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Never been a fan of him (that's me being a Blazers fan) - but MMeyers Leonard is someone to keep an eye on. The PF position is still quite open in Miami and he's been playing really well. His skillset also matches well with that Miami Heat roster/starting five, and he's a guy who doesn't hurt your %'s or TO's. As a low end free agent addition he could be a nice gamble. Don't expect blocks, though. He'd be among the league worst among guards, even. 

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34 minutes ago, perkinsfor3 said:

Never been a fan of him (that's me being a Blazers fan) - but MMeyers Leonard is someone to keep an eye on. The PF position is still quite open in Miami and he's been playing really well. His skillset also matches well with that Miami Heat roster/starting five, and he's a guy who doesn't hurt your %'s or TO's. As a low end free agent addition he could be a nice gamble. Don't expect blocks, though. He'd be among the league worst among guards, even. 

But Heats already has similar type stretch 4/5---Kelly Olynyk 

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1 hour ago, kane said:

But Heats already has similar type stretch 4/5---Kelly Olynyk 

Injured, missed preparation and not perse better than Meyers (Olynyk's handles are better though). When he's 100%, it could go either way - but by that timr, Meyers could have carved out a role and good chemistry.

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