dboong

2019-20 Sleepers and and Busts

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7 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

There's a decent chance the Bulls could be in playoff contention this season. I see them and Atlanta as the two outsiders that can take the next step if things fall into place (mostly in regards to injuries for the bulls who seem a little fragile). If they stay healthy I think they'll be in the running for the 7th/8th seed with Nets, Heat, Pistons, Hawks (Top 6 of 76ers, Bucks, Celtics, Raptors, Pacers, Magic). The rest (Wizards - sorry @johnval1362, Knicks, Cavs, Hornets) are scrubs and destined for the Lottery 

7 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

There's a decent chance the Bulls could be in playoff contention this season. I see them and Atlanta as the two outsiders that can take the next step if things fall into place (mostly in regards to injuries for the bulls who seem a little fragile). If they stay healthy I think they'll be in the running for the 7th/8th seed with Nets, Heat, Pistons, Hawks (Top 6 of 76ers, Bucks, Celtics, Raptors, Pacers, Magic). The rest (Wizards - sorry @johnval1362, Knicks, Cavs, Hornets) are scrubs and destined for the Lottery Balls.

 I didn't know porter was shipped out to to Chicago, which easily puts Chicago in a top 8 spot. Heat might fight for it but they have garbage spacing and won't get it done. The top 8 is pretty clear to me. 

76ers 

Bucks 

Celtics 

Raptors 

Nets

Pacers 

Magic 

Bulls 

Agree to disagree, I really don't care from what I have read of your posts, you're not worth typing words to buddy. 

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I feel like throughout the drafts I've done (not just mocks, a couple real ones), people are sleeping on either CP3 or Gallo.  I get that one of them can fall into the 40s or even the 50s (!) but both?  I'm not sure which one will come out and be the semi-surprise, but I'm telling you that SGA will not be The Man on that team for the first 40 games.  Like maybe SGA ends the season as The Man, whether because the other two get injured or traded or something.  Maybe SGA just is that good that neither of those things happen for either players and SGA still becomes the Alpha.

But it's not happening in the calendar year of 2019.  One of those two players (Paul and Gallinari) is getting slept on in the early drafts I've seen.

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31 minutes ago, Pyschout said:

I feel like throughout the drafts I've done (not just mocks, a couple real ones), people are sleeping on either CP3 or Gallo.  I get that one of them can fall into the 40s or even the 50s (!) but both?  I'm not sure which one will come out and be the semi-surprise, but I'm telling you that SGA will not be The Man on that team for the first 40 games.  Like maybe SGA ends the season as The Man, whether because the other two get injured or traded or something.  Maybe SGA just is that good that neither of those things happen for either players and SGA still becomes the Alpha.

But it's not happening in the calendar year of 2019.  One of those two players (Paul and Gallinari) is getting slept on in the early drafts I've seen.

In a $100 early draft I got CP3 49th and Gallo 73rd.  Of those two I’m higher on Gallo.  He’s one of the best offensive players in the game.  He can shoot over threes and is athletic enough to get by fours.  Or he can just bomb it from deep.  You can’t foul him bc...he shoots over 90% from the line.  He can score 25 points this season on 3 threes, 8 rebounds.  Nothing else really, no stocks.  He’s an undervalued, better Tobias Harris.  Injury concern is whatever.  These guys get labeled as “soft” and drop 4 rounds. In reality, he’s just now entering his prime, and most of those injuries were flukes.  Two of the last four seasons he’s played a decent amount of games.  But at 50+ you definitely roll the dice. 

 

I’m more concerned about CP3.  He’s actually declining and may only put up 3rd round per game value.  So you’re not getting much discount around 40.  

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21 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I’m more concerned about CP3.  He’s actually declining and may only put up 3rd round per game value.  So you’re not getting much discount around 40.  

 

In the 727 minutes Chris Paul played without James Harden last season, Paul averaged 22.5 points, 12.5 assists, and 5.4 rebounds on 58.1 TS% per 36 minutes. Rockets had a +10.4 Net Rating in those minutes.

Chris Paul was still putting up monster numbers last season without Harden, and his team was doing well too as the +10.4 net rating shows. He's going to be the lead ball handler again in OKC so his numbers should be better than last year. I do expect him to be traded at some point though.

 

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1 minute ago, v1n5anity said:

 

In the 727 minutes Chris Paul played without James Harden last season, Paul averaged 22.5 points, 12.5 assists, and 5.4 rebounds on 58.1 TS% per 36 minutes. Rockets had a +10.4 Net Rating in those minutes.

Chris Paul was still putting up monster numbers last season without Harden, and his team was doing well too as the +10.4 net rating shows. He's going to be the lead ball handler again in OKC so his numbers should be better than last year. I do expect him to be traded at some point though.

 

Traded, injured, shutdown...

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9 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Traded, injured, shutdown...

Those are different from "declining". He is declining, but not at the rate people think.

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8 minutes ago, v1n5anity said:

Those are different from "declining". He is declining, but not at the rate people think.

You’re correct.  

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3 hours ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

Miles Bridges, obviously i'm biased but i've been watching this kid for years. He's definitely going way too low in every mock draft i've participated in. 

 

Something I glossed over at first when I started evaluating players is that per36 he was at 1 block per game last season. I didn't get to watch him much (and that's probably part of why his hype isn't too high) but he's slotted to play a lot of PF so I'm interested to see how his blocks do.

I also think his shot selection and FG% was also better than I expected. One of the weaknesses with him coming out of college was his suspect shooting, and I think people heard that, glanced over his physical profile, and had flashbacks of Stanley Johnson, Josh Jackson, Winslow, etc. Wings with suspect shooting who haven't impressed other than Winslow in a limited role. But the FG% from Bridges in 20+ mins was still over 46%. Even other athletic rookie wings don't finish with a FG% that high.

Better rookie shooting season than MKG, Josh Jackson, Stanley Johnson, & Justise Winslow. He was also compared to Jae Crowder, Rudy Gay, Josh Smith, and DeMar, and while I'm not yet sold on his best case scenario, signs are hopeful that he's gonna be a solid player. He also admitted he was out of shape last season. I'm curious to see how he performs with better conditioning next season.

 

 

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3 hours ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

Miles Bridges, obviously i'm biased but i've been watching this kid for years. He's definitely going way too low in every mock draft i've participated in. 

I like both of the bridges brothers. 

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Come to think of it, I REALLY love where Justise Winslow is at right now.

 

Showed signs of being a legit ball handler for Miami in the 2nd half of last season, and he was darn good at it.

 

I believe that this kid might actually touch the Top 60 mark if he gets his share of usage.

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7 hours ago, jhsong916 said:

Come to think of it, I REALLY love where Justise Winslow is at right now.

 

Showed signs of being a legit ball handler for Miami in the 2nd half of last season, and he was darn good at it.

 

I believe that this kid might actually touch the Top 60 mark if he gets his share of usage.

I honestly think theres no chance he gets near top 60. Way too many holes in his game from a fantasy standpoint and given his poor %s an increased usage could negate any increase in his counting stats.

 

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8 hours ago, jhsong916 said:

Come to think of it, I REALLY love where Justise Winslow is at right now.

 

Showed signs of being a legit ball handler for Miami in the 2nd half of last season, and he was darn good at it.

 

I believe that this kid might actually touch the Top 60 mark if he gets his share of usage.

 

no chance this guy sniffs anywhere near top 60 with his inability to hit free throws, low fg, and zero stocks.

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18 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

no chance this guy sniffs anywhere near top 60 with his inability to hit free throws, low fg, and zero stocks.

 

From Jan. 1 to Mar. 15 last season. (31 games. Started all of them)

 

13.8 ppg / 5.6 rpg / 4.9 apg / 1.0 spg / 45.4% FG / 38.9% 3PG / 59.7% FT

 

FT was the only thing you could call a 'liability' in his game last year.

Shown good ball handling skills + well-rounded offensive game.

 

This year, Butler is added to the Heat roster but I personally see that as an opportunity for Winslow since Whiteside, JRich is gone.

I'm not saying he 'will' enter the Top 60, but to me he sure has a 'chance' to do so.

 

Skills are there, and he will receive a plenty of offensive roles in the Heat roster since he is considered as their main building stone right now.

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5 minutes ago, jhsong916 said:

 

From Jan. 1 to Mar. 15 last season. (31 games. Started all of them)

 

13.8 ppg / 5.6 rpg / 4.9 apg / 1.0 spg / 45.4% FG / 38.9% 3PG / 59.7% FT

 

FT was the only thing you could call a 'liability' in his game last year.

Shown good ball handling skills + well-rounded offensive game.

 

This year, Butler is added to the Heat roster but I personally see that as an opportunity for Winslow since Whiteside, JRich is gone.

I'm not saying he 'will' enter the Top 60, but to me he sure has a 'chance' to do so.

 

Skills are there, and he will receive a plenty of offensive roles in the Heat roster since he is considered as their main building stone right now.

 For the time period indicated, Winslow was ranked 155th.  Those are pedestrian numbers.  His efficiency was trash during that time period.  You also forgot to mention that he turned the ball over 2.1 times per game during that time which is a weak A/TO ratio.  Points, rebounds, blocks, all three efficiency cats-six cats below median.  

 

If you want to play semantics, you're correct, he as a chance to be top 60.  He plays in the NBA and as long as he hits the court he has a chance to drink "Michael's Secret Stuff" and poof...top 60.  

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Posted (edited)

I thought the term 'sleeper' was to identify players who has potential to create meaningful difference while they were still viewed as mid-low round assets. If they're obviously good (or great) already and reached Top 50-60 or whatever like that, they would be classified as a Top 50-60 in the first place... And we don't call them 'sleepers.'

 

I thought that this thread was for players who didn't post good enough numbers to warrant a early-mid round pick but still had a chance to breakout due to their skillset and role changes within their respective team.

 

See some players within the 130-150 range.

Tim Hardaway Jr, Dario Saric, Jakob Poeltl, Elfrid Payton, Kelly Olynyk, Bobby Portis, Eric Gordon, Cedi Osman, etc...

 

Most of them are one-trick ponies or players that are not considered as a cornerstone for their franchise.

 

The reason why I took Winslow out of that bag was because he certainly has a higher ceiling than others due to his out-of-position ball handling skills and shooting. He also developed well as a 23 yo. player + He is guaranteed a big role in his team.

 

+ I don't see 45.4% FG and 38.9% 3PG as a 'trash' ratio. Free throws definitely needs some practice, can't argue with that.

Edited by jhsong916

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11 minutes ago, jhsong916 said:

I thought the term 'sleeper' was to identify players who has potential to create meaningful difference while they were still viewed as mid-low round assets. If they're obviously good (or great) already and reached Top 50-60 or whatever like that, they would be classified as a Top 50-60 in the first place... And we don't call them 'sleepers.'

 

I thought that this thread was for players who didn't post good enough numbers to warrant a early-mid round pick but still had a chance to breakout due to their skillset and role changes within their respective team.

 

See some players within the 130-150 range.

Tim Hardaway Jr, Dario Saric, Jakob Poeltl, Elfrid Payton, Kelly Olynyk, Bobby Portis, Eric Gordon, Cedi Osman, etc...

 

Most of them are one-trick ponies or players that are not considered as a cornerstone for their franchise.

 

The reason why I took Winslow out of that bag was because he certainly has a higher ceiling than others due to his out-of-position ball handling skills and shooting. He also developed well as a 23 yo. player + He is guaranteed a big role in his team.

 

+ I don't see 45.4% FG and 38.9% 3PG as a 'trash' ratio. Free throws definitely needs some practice, can't argue with that.

I don't object to your statement that "he could be a sleeper".  I object to the statement that he has top 60 potential, which he does not.  At least not one based on numerical analysis.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I don't object to your statement that "he could be a sleeper".  I object to the statement that he has top 60 potential, which he does not.  At least not one based on numerical analysis.

 

If it's about numbers, than I couldn't refute. Numbers were solid in his last 2-3 months... but nothing special, that's a fact.

I just tend to focus on the skillset (eye test) and role changes when I pick my mid-late round fliers.

Edited by jhsong916

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1 hour ago, jhsong916 said:

 

From Jan. 1 to Mar. 15 last season. (31 games. Started all of them)

 

13.8 ppg / 5.6 rpg / 4.9 apg / 1.0 spg / 45.4% FG / 38.9% 3PG / 59.7% FT

 

FT was the only thing you could call a 'liability' in his game last year.

Shown good ball handling skills + well-rounded offensive game.

 

This year, Butler is added to the Heat roster but I personally see that as an opportunity for Winslow since Whiteside, JRich is gone.

I'm not saying he 'will' enter the Top 60, but to me he sure has a 'chance' to do so.

 

Skills are there, and he will receive a plenty of offensive roles in the Heat roster since he is considered as their main building stone right now.

 

That's more or less Bogdan Bogdanovic numbers with way worse free throw.  BogBog was ranked 110+ almost the entire season and that is where he is being drafted in mocks.

 

Justise would have to put up better numbers than the Middletons, Brolos, Brogdons, and Tobias Harris's to crack the top 60.  Won't happen

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Ok guys I'm gonna give you my secret sauce late round sleepers.  Both Mavs.  Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber.  

 

They're different players...Powell we know about, but Maxi is a little more under the radar.  I took him in the last round of a punt points and FT team, and he's perfect for me...I missed on some earlier players that are very similar...Kristaps, Brook Lopez, Zach Collins.  All 3 would be mainly drafted for 3's and blocks.  Maxi averaged over 1 three and over 1 block per game, with 4.5 reb and 0.5 steals in just 21 min/night, and had some big 3's / block / rebound explosions.  He's important to the Mavs as a rim protecting big who can space the floor and shoot 3's.  With Kristaps arrival you would think less playing time, which would cap his upside...but KP will be load managed, which I think might mean more minutes and playing time especially with the possibility for much more minutes in blowouts or when KP sits.  If he's injured again or shutdown then the upside is unleashed, and Maxi and Powell will go nuts.  I would love to Zach Collins earlier, but if I can't get him (hype train, etc) and I need a little boost in 3's and blocks, I'm taking Maxi with my last pick.  

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1 minute ago, hipriest69 said:

Ok guys I'm gonna give you my secret sauce late round sleepers.  Both Mavs.  Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber.  

 

They're different players...Powell we know about, but Maxi is a little more under the radar.  I took him in the last round of a punt points and FT team, and he's perfect for me...I missed on some earlier players that are very similar...Kristaps, Brook Lopez, Zach Collins.  All 3 would be mainly drafted for 3's and blocks.  Maxi averaged over 1 three and over 1 block per game, with 4.5 reb and 0.5 steals in just 21 min/night, and had some big 3's / block / rebound explosions.  He's important to the Mavs as a rim protecting big who can space the floor and shoot 3's.  With Kristaps arrival you would think less playing time, which would cap his upside...but KP will be load managed, which I think might mean more minutes and playing time especially with the possibility for much more minutes in blowouts or when KP sits.  If he's injured again or shutdown then the upside is unleashed, and Maxi and Powell will go nuts.  I would love to Zach Collins earlier, but if I can't get him (hype train, etc) and I need a little boost in 3's and blocks, I'm taking Maxi with my last pick.  

I have kleber in two dynasty leagues 👍

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Just now, StifleTower2 said:

I have kleber in two dynasty leagues 👍

 

Brah!  Holy smokes if he gets traded or falls into a bigger opportunity...plus in roto / deep leagues he's gold.  

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