MysticPeak

Luka Doncic 2019-2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Yahoo has him pretty high right now and they can't seem to make their minds up as expected.

 

What are your thoughts & your projected statline for Luka for this upcoming season? Is he worth the mid-late 2nd rounder?spacer.png

Edited by MysticPeak

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unless his FG and FT% has huge improvement ,I don't think he can meet his current ADP

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I'm expecting very similar stats to last year and my prediction is: 22/7/7 on 43% and 75% from the line. I'm thinking high TOs as well.

 

Not worth the ADP but he'll fill the stat sheet in your H2H leagues. points, boards, assists, 3s, and steals should all be solid. He's basically a low fg/ft% Jokic. Obviously less rebounds but you get the gist.

 

 

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5 hours ago, MysticPeak said:

Yahoo has him pretty high right now and they can't seem to make their minds up as expected.

 

What are your thoughts & your projected statline for Luka for this upcoming season? Is he worth the mid-late 2nd rounder?spacer.png

He was the #146 player over the last 2 months of the season. Efficiency is terrible and defensive stats are bad. Is a player like that worth your 2nd pick? 

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The problem is that even if you punt all three efficiency cats then he still barely cracks the top 25.  Whereas someone as maligned as Westy ranks 2nd if you punt efficiency and they’re likely available in a similar round.  Not to mention he’s not durable, played 72 games last season.  The Mavericks are likely missing the playoffs and if so they’re not going to push either Kristaps or Doncic to play.  I won’t use the dreaded “r word” but given their mediocre playoff schedule and potential missed games I’d put his over/under during the fantasy playoffs as 8.5.  I don’t see any reason to draft him early.  Not in the second round and I can probably name half a dozen players in the third as well. Given where he’s projected to go I’m guessing he will be on 0 of my teams. 

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Hardly he will be taken in 2nd round at most drafts. But if you plan to get Luka at middle rounds he is already taken - despite he finished as a 9th round player last season. People like him too much. Probably I rank him somewhere at the end of TOP 50, but I think even that means I don't get him.

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Counting stats = gold.  Efficiency = putrid.  I'm with the theory that efficiency tends to increase as players improve.  The FT will get better.  He's probably above 75% for his Euro career so I'd say the 71% will be a low outlier for him moving forward.  In fact, if you take out the 1-9 FT game it raises his FT 1% for the entire year putting him at 72.5%.  A small jump to 75% or better seems reasonable, if not likely, especially if he's in better shape this year. 

 

The FG should get better as well.  He's arguably one of the craftiest players in the league, perhaps one of the craftiest of all time at age 19/20.  I think he will continue to find ways to "win" on the smallest levels to continue to create better angles, space, leverage, and ultimately better shots and passes.  He's already an elite difficult shot maker with limitless range.  The biggest factor that will hinder his FG (and probably keep it around 45%) is his lack of elite athleticism and finishing at the rim.  Of course he'll improve his athleticism and get stronger, quicker, faster, and in better shape.  Plus he'll have actual NBA players as teammates this year.   

 

I am probably not touching him in re-draft this year b/c of the efficiency, but might consider it in H2H in the right build at the right price.  I took him 7th in dynasty roto because its fun and I get to own him for the rest of my life.   

 

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I believe his line will be something like 25/8/7 with 2.5 3s and 1 steal. Also improved efficiency should be expected, around 45 fg% and 75% ft. He is a poor man's Westbrook right now, but with the potential to get his free throws in non-punt territory even from this year.

I would not touch him inside top50 in roto, but in h2h it really depends on the build. I would love for example to pair him with Westbrook at guard spots if i go punt efficiency stats. It is not a common build but can be strong with those 2. Perfect one for this would be Cousins as a big but he gone unfortunately.

I m really excited to watch him in real life though. Wonder boy!

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1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

Counting stats = gold.  Efficiency = putrid.  I'm with the theory that efficiency tends to increase as players improve.  The FT will get better.  He's probably above 75% for his Euro career so I'd say the 71% will be a low outlier for him moving forward.  In fact, if you take out the 1-9 FT game it raises his FT 1% for the entire year putting him at 72.5%.  A small jump to 75% or better seems reasonable, if not likely, especially if he's in better shape this year. 

 

The FG should get better as well.  He's arguably one of the craftiest players in the league, perhaps one of the craftiest of all time at age 19/20.  I think he will continue to find ways to "win" on the smallest levels to continue to create better angles, space, leverage, and ultimately better shots and passes.  He's already an elite difficult shot maker with limitless range.  The biggest factor that will hinder his FG (and probably keep it around 45%) is his lack of elite athleticism and finishing at the rim.  Of course he'll improve his athleticism and get stronger, quicker, faster, and in better shape.  Plus he'll have actual NBA players as teammates this year.   

 

I am probably not touching him in re-draft this year b/c of the efficiency, but might consider it in H2H in the right build at the right price.  I took him 7th in dynasty roto because its fun and I get to own him for the rest of my life.   

 

The problem is that his counting stats aren’t golden enough to make up for his poor efficiency.  25/8/7 seems good but they’re hollow popcorn stats.  His threes are pedestrian and he doesn’t get stocks. Compared to say Mitchell, who is similarly ranked, Mitchell has more steals and is across the board more efficient AND importantly is more durable AND has a better schedule.  I don’t see many people fighting to pick Mitchell before doncic either. 

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32 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

The problem is that his counting stats aren’t golden enough to make up for his poor efficiency.  25/8/7 seems good but they’re hollow popcorn stats.  His threes are pedestrian and he doesn’t get stocks. Compared to say Mitchell, who is similarly ranked, Mitchell has more steals and is across the board more efficient AND importantly is more durable AND has a better schedule.  I don’t see many people fighting to pick Mitchell before doncic either. 

 

Usually I agree with you but I have to disagree a bit here 

Doncic is going into his 2nd season and has massive potential.  You scoff at a line of 25-8-7 with 2+ threes but how many other players put up a line like that?  Harden, Lebron, MAYBE Westbrook if he can somehow hit his threes.   Westbrook and Lebron have the same holes in their game as Doncic but nobody will blink at taking them 2nd round or even 1st round.  In just one season, Doncic was basically Lebron with worse fg% and better three point shooting.

I don't see how 2.3 threes is pedestrian, it was good for 25th in the league last season and ahead of players like Booker, Oladipo, Markennan, Leonard, Durant, Lavine, Harris, etc.

The biggest difference between Mitchell and Doncic is the free throw shooting.  Everything else is on par except Mitchell gets SLIGHTLY more steals at .3 and a bit less TO

 

In terms of durability, Doncic was held out of games because the Mavs were pretty much tanking.  I don't see that as an issue and also fantasy playoff schedule is also a non factor this season

 

Doncic does have efficiency woes that he needs to take care of but I can see why people would take him in the 2nd round, especially for ft% or TO punt teams.  He will shore up some of the holes in his game with his improved conditioning, experience, and Porzingis return. 

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Doncic shot 71% from the line last year.  His international average is 76%. The difference is like ******** four rounds.  Food for thought, my dudes.

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4 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

Usually I agree with you but I have to disagree a bit here 

Doncic is going into his 2nd season and has massive potential.  You scoff at a line of 25-8-7 with 2+ threes but how many other players put up a line like that?  Harden, Lebron, MAYBE Westbrook if he can somehow hit his threes.   Westbrook and Lebron have the same holes in their game as Doncic but nobody will blink at taking them 2nd round or even 1st round.  In just one season, Doncic was basically Lebron with worse fg% and better three point shooting.

I don't see how 2.3 threes is pedestrian, it was good for 25th in the league last season and ahead of players like Booker, Oladipo, Markennan, Leonard, Durant, Lavine, Harris, etc.

The biggest difference between Mitchell and Doncic is the free throw shooting.  Everything else is on par except Mitchell gets SLIGHTLY more steals at .3 and a bit less TO

 

In terms of durability, Doncic was held out of games because the Mavs were pretty much tanking.  I don't see that as an issue and also fantasy playoff schedule is also a non factor this season

 

Doncic does have efficiency woes that he needs to take care of but I can see why people would take him in the 2nd round, especially for ft% or TO punt teams.  He will shore up some of the holes in his game with his improved conditioning, experience, and Porzingis return. 

2.3 threes is pedestrian if you’re thinking about taking him in the second or third round. You proved my point for me.  That’s 25th among all players.  But some of the players picked ahead of him are bigs who don’t shoot threes.  So that means he’s 25th among guards/wings who shoot threes.  That’s mediocre.  The guys you chose to include are an odd collection for sure.  Some of them are bigs and almost all of them are later picks than Doncic.  So Doncic is better than a random sample of guys selected after him...congrats? Ross, Green, Ingles, etc made more for example.  I think you can understand how it’s pedestrian for a shooting guard selected where he projects to go. 

 

You also proved my point about missing games. Mavs sat guys.  Little has changed about their standing.  They’re not winning 40 games, sorry.  Playoff schedule does matter, just not as much as in previous years. 

 

Mitchell is just an arbitrary example of a guy at the same position whom I’d rather have who you can get more cheaply than Doncic in many drafts.  Actually there are a whole legion of guys I’d take before doncic.  Maybe, MAYBE, I’d take him in the third for a punt team.  Maybe.  In the dark, on a random team that isn’t punting, outside top 50.

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In fairness, he can have his usefulness. The best situation I can see him in is H2H I punt FT/To.  Suppose I take Giannis or LeBron in the first then Westbrook or Drummond in the second.  There’s no one else I’d rather have than Donic in the third, supposing he falls that far.  Simmons is close, but it can be difficult to find threes in that build, not to mention his positional eligibility.  Hard to find good guards in punt FT.  It’s important to figure out how a player can be useful and build around that.  But in a non-punt team I maintain my stance. 

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Posted (edited)

You cannot judge by one season to say he has durability issues. He has played more games at age 20 than anybody that is currently in the league when they were at his age. He played around 70+ games in Europe as well for two consecutive seasons and without proper summer rest. It will be the first time he will be resting from April and they say he has worked a lot in conditioning as well so let's see.

I can see all your other points but the one that Mavs won't win enough games so they will rest him cannot factor in my decision where to draft him. This is just taro reading.

Edited by RipCity0
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8 hours ago, RipCity0 said:

You cannot judge by one season to say he has durability issues. He has played more games at age 20 than anybody that is currently in the league when they were at his age. He played around 70+ games in Europe as well for two consecutive seasons and without proper summer rest. It will be the first time he will be resting from April and they say he has worked a lot in conditioning as well so let's see.

I can see all your other points but the one that Mavs won't win enough games so they will rest him cannot factor in my decision where to draft him. This is just taro reading.

I understand you and it has merit.  The entirety of fantasy basketball (or any game) is making assumptions, backed by sound logic.  If you're not going to factor in rest games into your evaluation of him that's fine.  You might not be a person who is swayed by PO schedule/rest days.  I would then urge you to consider being internally consistent, for your own sake.  I'd caution against taking other player's rest/PO schedule/etc into consideration but giving Doncic a pass on it.

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15 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

In fairness, he can have his usefulness. The best situation I can see him in is H2H I punt FT/To.  Suppose I take Giannis or LeBron in the first then Westbrook or Drummond in the second.  There’s no one else I’d rather have than Donic in the third, supposing he falls that far.  Simmons is close, but it can be difficult to find threes in that build, not to mention his positional eligibility.  Hard to find good guards in punt FT.  It’s important to figure out how a player can be useful and build around that.  But in a non-punt team I maintain my stance. 

 

I like this sentiment. Simmons is another guy that I question why he's regularly drafted in the 2nd round unless you're punting at least 1 or 2 cats... if you're planning on going after a specific build I think Doncic and Simmons can work (as mentioned RWB, LeBron, and Drummond are great compliments). Then you can get Fox, Jaylen Brown, maybe Ingram, maybe Whiteside/Bagley later on with some 3pt shooters. But barring that, I can't draft those guys that high if you're going for a traditional balanced team. Nor in roto, where the FTs definitely have to drop him somewhat.

He's got superstar potential, but just because I believe he'll be a superstar doesn't mean I'm drafting him that high.

 

 

 

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I was curious to see some other players career arc in FT%, so here are some elite FT shooters and what they averaged in 1st-2nd season.  

 

Pierce          71%   79%

Dirk             77%   83%

Harden        80%   84%

Dame          84%   87%

Butler          76%   80%

PG              76%   80%

 

All of them ended up with an elite career FT %.  Now of course not everyone improves linearly or at all, but just know that it's possible for a high usage player to improve.  The problem is that with Doncic high volume he'd have to get closer to 80% or so to not be a negative.  If he can push past 80 his high volume will end up working in his favor.  Probably not this year tho.     

 

 

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Luka is probably not the best pick in a redraft but in a dynasty, he's great. young, fun and everyone in the league would overpay to get him. 

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47 minutes ago, larfboy said:

Luka is probably not the best pick in a redraft but in a dynasty, he's great. young, fun and everyone in the league would overpay to get him. 

If he weren't so overpriced he would be great in redraft. But with all that hype comes a steep price tag. But yes, in dynasty, definitely one of the top players in the league right now. 

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19 minutes ago, pyro7 said:

a guy in my h2h 12 teams league drafted him round 1, no 7. lmfao.

 

does the dudes last name happen to end with "ic" ?

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2 hours ago, Quazza said:

 

does the dudes last name happen to end with "ic" ?

nope, it ends with "ocky".

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4 hours ago, pyro7 said:

a guy in my h2h 12 teams league drafted him round 1, no 7. lmfao.

 

He went the same spot in one of my mocks yesterday surprisingly. I hope the hype continues, because I hate picks 8/9 but if Luka goes T7 I've got way more wiggle room 

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Posted (edited)

I wouldn't draft him in 1st round. That being said, I see the logic in taking him in  top 15:

#1 - you have a crash on Luka

#2 - you are expecting improvement in his bad categories. Easiest one is FT%, he was at 76.6% in Europe. If  his TOs go down to around 3.1-3.2 that will make an impact

#3 - you are  doing  punt build, and this is where things get crazy.

For  a season, in 3 cat  punt( FG%, FT%, TO) he was 24th; last 25 games he was 15th.    Punt FT% and TOs and he was 32th for a season and 29th  in last 25 games.

Punt FT% and FG% , he was 36th and 32nd. 

All you have to do is   punt FT%, FG% and TOs and you have a case for drafting Luka in 1st round 😀

Or, you can bet that he will  make significant improvement in his 2nd season.

Any rookie that posts 21.2/7.8/6 with 2.3 3PM, 1.1 steals and 3.4 TOs is a special talent.

There was another rookie  on 03/04 that averaged 20.9/5.5/5.9  with 0.8 3PM,  1.6 steals and 3.5 TOs.

This rookie finished 47th in standard 9 cat H2H according to BBM.

Next year (04/05) that rookie finished ....    5th. 

Homework: who is this rookie? Who are other rookies  that averaged 20-5-5?

Edited by Gile Pile

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If you punt FT and points and use total value then Stifle was the first overall player.  See what you’re doing here?  He has useful stats.  You can punt to maximize the value of his stats.  But that could be said of many many players and you’re cherry picking data.  

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