AirForceOne

Darrel Williams 2019 Outlook

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You start him if you have him. I think someone will emerge (or McCoy will get hurt) from this backfield. 

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3 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Is this done? Damian back at practice. Might be worth benching 

Obviously it would be risky to play him if Damien suits up. Worst case scenario could happen that Darrel has earned himself snaps, especially for his superb pass protection on 3rd down and 2 minute drills, which would makes this a productive RBBC, yet good luck on guessing which D-Will goes off each week...😣

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30 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Is this done? Damian back at practice. Might be worth benching 

 

I think it'll be done but we won't know for sure until we see a game.

If I had to bet though, I'd bet it goes back to basically McCoy and Damien like it was in the first two weeks.  I wish it was Darrel as he's the one I have but I feel like he's unplayable if Damien and McCoy are both active and playing.  

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I'm not in any hurry to start Darrel, but it's going to be hard to drop him now that it's established that you can start any two RBs in this offense as long as one of them is sitting. I think the chances of both Shady and D. Will playing the next 12 games without missing any time is close to 0%.

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46 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

I'm not in any hurry to start Darrel, but it's going to be hard to drop him now that it's established that you can start any two RBs in this offense as long as one of them is sitting. I think the chances of both Shady and D. Will playing the next 12 games without missing any time is close to 0%.

 

Agreed- definitely a hold due to the upside and ambiguous injuries for those in front. 

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Someone here needs to drop him and declare it publicly for the sake of the rest of us. We need a hero.

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Tricky situation especially with the Chiefs playing on SNF.. for now we just will have to wait on Damien’s status. If we are lucky we will know before the 1 o’clock games kick off.

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I'm honestly not sure you can start any Chiefs' RB this week until we see the distribution. McCoy I guess, he would be the safest. 

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2 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I'm honestly not sure you can start any Chiefs' RB this week until we see the distribution. McCoy I guess, he would be the safest. 

 

McCoy is solidified in the 50-50 piece of pie. No one knows if Reid will stick with Darrell or if Damien comes back and takes Darrel's snaps. We'll see. Still like Darrel as a hold ROS as he's proven top-20 numbers.

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5 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I'm honestly not sure you can start any Chiefs' RB this week until we see the distribution. McCoy I guess, he would be the safest. 

 

Not only that, it's a Sunday night game so you can't wait until you hear the inactives.

Unless D. Williams is limited all week you can't start him.

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Only way you can start Darrel is if Damien has a setback in practice (or, of course, if you have nobody else).  Even if Damien is limited all week, we'll have no idea how much work he gets.  The best assumption is that McCoy is going to get half (at least).  Darrel could put up a real stinker if Damien plays a decent amount.

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1 hour ago, itschief33 said:

Someone here needs to drop him and declare it publicly for the sake of the rest of us. We need a hero.

I dropped him. 

810be29ae12a4c0fab193e9ab9edb0ae.jpg

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I have Darrel, and don't have Damien. But I did defend the reasoning behind those that drafted Damien in August, and pushed back against the ridiculous revisionist history once the team signed McCoy.

I see no reason for the team to immediately reinstall Damien as the starter when he's healthy. We're not talking about prime Le'Veon Bell, here. My guess would be that all 3 are used in tandem, and they'll be used based on performance. I think they all have massive upside.

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Darrel has been awfully damn good and helped them win 2 very tough games. Not to mention Reid has praised him publicly at least twice. I guess we’ll have to see, but I can’t believe they’d suddenly bench him. Shrug 

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I just posted this over in the Damien thread. Quite relevant in here as well.
 

2 minutes ago, Alconbury said:

Took a look at some advanced metrics for this backfield over at Footballoutsiders to perhaps shed some light on the situation. Some believe in advanced metrics, some don't, take it for what i's worth but it sure has helped my decision making in FF numerous times over the years.

DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense.

Rushing DVOA (%)
McCoy 14.5% (RB8) - 40 rushes
Darrel -9.3% (no rank) - 17 rushes
Damien -33.7% (no rank) - 22 rushes

Neither Darrel or Damien gets a rank here due to below 32 rush attempts. But for comparison, in the list of 32+ attempt rushers, -9.3% would land at RB24 and -33.7% at RB37.

Receiving DVOA (%)
Darrel 38.2% (RB4) - 9 targets
McCoy 13.5% (RB14) - 12 targets
Damien 6.9% (RB17) - 11 targets

McCoy has been by far the most effective on the ground. Metrics confirming what everyone also has seen pretty much, his role is likely the only certainty here, barring health. After that, Darrel's presence should not be underestimated. Neither Williams has been particularly effective on the ground, but especially Darrel's performance in the passing game stands out, and has surprised. Possibly also the Chiefs.

Worth to mention however, even though it was last year and things change, Damien had a 26.4% DVOA over 50 rushes and 33.9% over 24 targets during his hot finish 2018. Top marks if it would have been over a bigger sample. Preseason injury still nagging or something else, but he wasn't the same before going down.

Huge week for the Williams.

 

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I’m not so sure Darryl hasn’t carved a role out, best case he leapfrogged Damien. Everyone knows Shady holds the reins still. Well I’m sure Damien folks are still in denial.

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Don't drop him! He is a firm hold. That backfield is so productive and both Shady and Damien have been dinged up already and probably aren't at 100% anyway. Hence Darrel might have earned a role regardless. Obviously you can't rely on him as your starter. But should injury strike again or Darrel outplay Damien going forward, you have a valuable piece of the best offense in football!

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What are the chances this does truly become a 3 headed RBBC and we have a similar situation to the 49's the last few weeks where two backs handle between the 20's (McCoy and Damien) and then have a RB for goal line work (Darrel)?  Have McCoy and Darrel and was completely OK with the results last week.  ugh.. :( 

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He's definitely a hold because what are the odds McCoy OR Damien misses some games from here on out?

Darrell only needs one of them to sit out for him to go back to an RB2.

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